EUR / USD Outlook - Help.

*JDR* · Nov 9, 2006

I currently hold a large amount of Euro, USD, GBP and AUD. Basically due to my working in various countries.

I am looking to reduce my currency exposure.

Namely the first thing I want to do is change all my Euro to USD.

Is now a good time to do this?

What is your short and long term EUR/USD outlook?

UBS recently sent me something suggesting EUR/USD to be 1.34 in the new year. Is this realistic? They have never got it right before.....

Thanks.

damianoakley · Nov 9, 2006

Hi JDR,

If they've never got it right before, I would be tempted to follow the trend and not believe their prediction !

Thanks

Damian

andycan · Nov 9, 2006

*JDR* said:
I currently hold a large amount of Euro, USD, GBP and AUD. Basically due to my working in various countries.

I am looking to reduce my currency exposure.

Namely the first thing I want to do is change all my Euro to USD.

Is now a good time to do this?

What is your short and long term EUR/USD outlook?

UBS recently sent me something suggesting EUR/USD to be 1.34 in the new year. Is this realistic? They have never got it right before.....

Thanks.

JDR
i believe that to be realistic
i had euro/usd targeting 1.32 as a minimum
i have done some analysis that supports it but as everything its how you view it

jacinto · Nov 9, 2006

*JDR* said:
I currently hold a large amount of Euro, USD, GBP and AUD. Basically due to my working in various countries.

I am looking to reduce my currency exposure.

Namely the first thing I want to do is change all my Euro to USD.

Is now a good time to do this?

What is your short and long term EUR/USD outlook?

UBS recently sent me something suggesting EUR/USD to be 1.34 in the new year. Is this realistic? They have never got it right before.....

Thanks.

chart should be self explanatory

jacinto · Nov 9, 2006

*JDR* said:
I currently hold a large amount of Euro, USD, GBP and AUD. Basically due to my working in various countries.

I am looking to reduce my currency exposure.

Namely the first thing I want to do is change all my Euro to USD.

Is now a good time to do this?

What is your short and long term EUR/USD outlook?

UBS recently sent me something suggesting EUR/USD to be 1.34 in the new year. Is this realistic? They have never got it right before.....

Thanks.

this one should make the point.

andycan · Nov 9, 2006

jacinto said:
chart should be self explanatory

very nice!!

T Squared Trading · Nov 10, 2006

Hey Andy,

With the democrats taking control of Congress, I don't think it would be suprising to see some additonal Dollar weakness against the Euro in the coming months.

I think if we test 1.3000 again, it may be a different story compared to previous attempts to breach that level.

T2

andycan · Nov 10, 2006

T Squared Trading said:
Hey Andy,

With the democrats taking control of Congress, I don't think it would be suprising to see some additonal Dollar weakness against the Euro in the coming months.

I think if we test 1.3000 again, it may be a different story compared to previous attempts to breach that level.

T2

T2
looking at the dollar index to me looks like it most likely wants to drop below 83 it would not surprise me to see it find a low at the d/bottom or just before that and then rally up that would coincide with euro/usd making a new high to the 1.32 and above area and then dropping hard
just eyeballing it my road map as such

marste100 · Nov 10, 2006

I think they are right, the usd will weaken further in the coming weeks.

3 main reason: high us deficit
democrat win
rising uk interest rate

So dont buy usd, rather keep your money in euro, or in gbp.

T Squared Trading · Nov 10, 2006

A majority of our Pound and Euro strategies have received Dollar short signals the past month or so. This usually occurs when a trend is identified, and they stay short until proven otherwise.

The Swiss and Yen charts are starting to look Dollar bearish as well. The only thing that gives us pause is 9 times out of 10, when setups look as obvious as these, usually the opposite occurs. The market is "tricky," like that.

T2

*JDR* · Nov 10, 2006

Thanks all for your help and opinion.

Based on the above confirming what I thought, I will hold onto my Euro for a bit longer.

A further question, which is probably very difficult to answer, so it is all opinion...

Will the USD make new lows on the current weakness?
Will the USD ever recover to be back on par with the Euro?

Cheers.

andycan · Nov 10, 2006

*JDR* said:
Thanks all for your help and opinion.

Based on the above confirming what I thought, I will hold onto my Euro for a bit longer.

A further question, which is probably very difficult to answer, so it is all opinion...

Will the USD make new lows on the current weakness?
Will the USD ever recover to be back on par with the Euro?

Cheers.

the first one is a toughy i have the dollar index penned for a low at the 81-82 but that is a guide or a road map i make. All things being equal the important factor for me is not when it gets there but rather how

the second question i have not really thought about that,but if it was to get to par you could be looking at least a couple of years
but thats way to far to consider at this point

jiggly · Nov 10, 2006

How can anyone be sure.

but we all have an opinion, its best not to listen to others advice when it is your money at stake, formulate your opinion from as many facts as you can possibly find and stake your money and take your chances like everyone else.

there are too many variables in this equation to think about and not all of them belonging to the market, you have different strategies, entry points, position sizes, profit targets, trading styles, time horizons, and everything that could happen in between all coming from and belonging to different people. All this will change tomorrow and then again the day after that. what you read and believe to be true today will not necessarily be true again tomorrow or any time in the near future, then it all loops again.

This type of question is up for massive ambiguity in interpretation and sadly to say that my opinion is that it could even border a 'gambling tip'

It is not my purpose to confuse or take up philosophical debate but I just thought i would state my piece and offer my opinion as you initially requested, and ultimately point out that it is an impossible question to give you the soundest advice on such a little podium.

andycan · Nov 11, 2006

jiggly said:
How can anyone be sure.

but we all have an opinion, its best not to listen to others advice when it is your money at stake, formulate your opinion from as many facts as you can possibly find and stake your money and take your chances like everyone else.

there are too many variables in this equation to think about and not all of them belonging to the market, you have different strategies, entry points, position sizes, profit targets, trading styles, time horizons, and everything that could happen in between all coming from and belonging to different people. All this will change tomorrow and then again the day after that. what you read and believe to be true today will not necessarily be true again tomorrow or any time in the near future, then it all loops again.

This type of question is up for massive ambiguity in interpretation and sadly to say that my opinion is that it could even border a 'gambling tip'

It is not my purpose to confuse or take up philosophical debate but I just thought i would state my piece and offer my opinion as you initially requested, and ultimately point out that it is an impossible question to give you the soundest advice on such a little podium.

The man asked a question i gave an answer
it is an opinion he can use it as a basis to compare with others or discard, which ever suits him
i have no stake or money on the line so the interpretation of the markets is unbiased

jacinto · Nov 11, 2006

charts posted above gave an unbiased opinion. lines with titles like (great trade, and so on) are based on fib extentions at the tops-bottoms.

basically, the charts are telling you is to stand aside, or to be very cautious, as price is close to a selloff....

probability of going up further are limited, and the dice are getting biased for it to go down

instead, i would start thinking of a nondollar currency that tends to be stable, if you want to lock profits, and have a "wait ands see" attitude. particularly if you bought at the bottom

those are my 2 cents.

*JDR* · Nov 11, 2006

Thank you all again for your help.

based on a couple of the answers i think I need to clarify. I do not actively trade Currencies and probably never will. Just not my "cup of tea". However, I guess if you were being the devil's advocate you could argue that I actually do trade currencies and I am at present Long on AUD, EUR, USD and GBP.

Jiggly - Thank you for that advice. It is good advice. But as I said above I am not really trading I am just looking for a time to consolidate all these currencies I currently hold. I am eventually just going to have to bite the bullet, but at present I have no need for the money I hold in anything other than GBP. So am just trying to gauge what the outlook is, or what people's opinion is.

Andycan, Jacinto - helpful again, thanks.

jiggly · Nov 12, 2006

Your welcome JDR

I hope whatever decision you decide to make yields the right results for you. it is not easy especially when you are not actively trading nor have a system/strategy in place, this is why it is harder to attack the market so you can come through the other end with at least minimising your losses at worst and making a profit at best.

may I ask if there is a substantial amount of money involved as a whole? I am pressuming that you are not using any leverage here and you are physically holding onto the currency?

am I correct?

regards

Richaal · Nov 12, 2006

First of all hi to everyone. This is how I see the eur usd, I dont really think its going to go over 1,2970, I would probably say its not even going to make it there this time, here is a picture of my analysis, no comments on it, because I think it is pretty self explanatory, just in case it isnt, FOR ME it seems like a downtrend correction. My personal recommendation is to exit (or change currencies) between this week and next week. But in the end its up to you to decide.
Regards.

*JDR* · Nov 13, 2006

Richaal - thanks for that. It is always good to hear opposing views.

Jiggly - Yes I currently hold the cash, there is no leverage. I currently hold a fairly large amout of EUR. Enough so that each cent change is about $1500 difference when changed to USD. So we are not talking millions and it is not going to send me broke, but I still see no reason in dismissing potentially a few thousand dollars as insignificant if a little bit of patience or good timing can yield a better result for me.

Thanks.

jiggly · Nov 22, 2006

Only reasons why I ask JDR is so that I can point out that there is a significance in how you are going to exchange the currencies.

As you dont have a position in the open market your commission to trade will be significantly higher and this may eat into any profit you do make from any sound decisions, you will be buying and selling at an ask/bid that in and of itself is a few cents away from the current market's. you will be losing this few cents or a few thousand as you stated off the bat. I hope I have explained this clear enough and you understand these implications as they are massive hurdles.

currently the eur is at 1.2910 and I have been accumulating shorts all the way up from 1.2730, I am now heavely short euros. even if you bought or sold at the same prices I did, since you are holding the physical cash you will have to travel further than I to make a return because your break even will be much further.

I feel that you will have an extreamly difficult task to turn a profit in this situation, you may reduce losses but turning a profit is a tall order.

I hope you are drawing closer to your decision as the market has made a significant move as of late.

Kind regards

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