Currency trading (Aug 7th > 11th)

Due to the poll being largely in favour of a weekly thread from here on in, heres Mondays ready so I can turn off and do something else!

Rather than name it specifically, I've generallized it as cable isn't the only popular market....

Hope everyone did well off NFP today and have a good weekend all....... :cheesy:

Looks like we'll start the week with new highs (since May last year)....

cable COT.

a wee bit too much speculation?

http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/BP.png

my guess is that cable may well be in the 5th and final "elliot wave" of the move started Nov '05...

wasp, perhaps you might like to post a weekly cable chart at the start of every weekly thread...?

btw, why is this new thread called "currency trading (weekly)" and not "live cable trading (weekly)" as your poll was suggesting?

is the aim of this new weekly thread to expand on the whole forex market, or as i had interpreted to focus on cable (gbp/usd) so that day traders might not have to wade through several hundreds of posts (exiled to unreferenced history)?

Im expecting some profit taking today and would like to see it contained within 9091 and 8994

Hi all,

Was actually going to stop posting but what else is there to do whilst trading and besides, its a good test on discipline if I can keep to my plan whilst all around are trading theirs!

Martin, I changed it to currency trading to allow for thiose who follow other crosses also but wish to keep it all in one. I don't personally but I know many do trade the euro, swiss, candian and yen too so I figured it would make sense to allow this in the title.

It will concentrate mainly on cable as it is the most common and will be the primary focus.

I'll post a chart and will do also each week along with the economic calender for the week ahead (cable only).

As for today, I really don't expect fireworks after Thursday and Friday and esp. with FOMC announcement tomorrow evening...

Cable economic calender

last week and bigger picture...

I can't fiind a list of the weeks economic events easily copyable as I use forexfactory and copying and pasting that is a nightmare to read so if anyone has such a thing in plain text....

mrng wasp

Deleted as Ampros much better
I will reply to your PM when I get a minute today

eco data for wk comm 7 Aug

that move was interesting

I was expecting a bit lower meself.... still plenty of time mind

Currently short with 1st target 8960, stop 9110, as DC says retracing today after a gain of nearly 1000pips in two weeks

Oh still expecting more as per my first post today, what was interesting is that both a long and a short could be set as it was midpoint

Hi Priceman
I am saying profit taking today not retracing yet although your trade still looks good, even being 9 pips too optimistic for profit IMO

ampro said:

eco data for wk comm 7 Aug

Click to expand...

nice one ampro

OK I remember now, terminology has to be spot on on here after reading other threads

Yeh profit taking is what it'll be....

As far as the target goes I'll adjust, if it struggles near that fig and get out as I don't like being against the trend anyway

I have a feeling the trend will be pretty much sideways today Priceman!

wasp said:

last week and bigger picture...

I can't fiind a list of the weeks economic events easily copyable as I use forexfactory and copying and pasting that is a nightmare to read so if anyone has such a thing in plain text....

Click to expand...

Economic calendar for week 06-Aug-2006 - 14-Aug-2006

Date / Time (GMT) / Source / Description / Forecast / Previous

8/7/2006 01:30 AUS ANZ Job Advertisements n/a -3.2%
8/7/2006 05:00 JPN Leading Economic Index n/a 77.3%
8/7/2006 05:00 JPN Coincident Index n/a 80.0%
8/7/2006 08:00 EU Bloomberg Germany Retail PMI n/a 54.7
8/7/2006 08:00 EU Bloomberg Eurozone Retail PMI n/a 55.1
8/7/2006 08:30 UK Industrial Production (YoY) n/a -0.7%
8/7/2006 08:30 UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) n/a 0.9%
8/7/2006 19:00 US Consumer Credit $4.0B $4.4B
8/7/2006 23:01 UK BRC July Retail Sales Monitor n/a n/a
8/7/2006 23:01 UK NIESR GDP Estimate n/a 0.6%
8/7/2006 23:50 JPN Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) n/a 1.2%
8/7/2006 23:50 JPN Broad Liquidity (YoY) n/a 2.3%
8/7/2006 23:50 JPN Bank Lending (YoY) n/a 1.7%

8/8/2006 01:30 AUS National Australia Bank's July Business Survey n/a n/a
8/8/2006 05:00 JPN Eco Watchers Survey: Current n/a 49.1
8/8/2006 05:00 JPN Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook n/a 51.8
8/8/2006 06:00 EU German Trade Balance n/a 12.9B
8/8/2006 06:00 EU German Current Account (EURO) n/a 4.3B
8/8/2006 06:00 EU German Imports SA (MoM) n/a -2.6%
8/8/2006 06:00 EU German Exports SA (MoM) n/a -1.5%
8/8/2006 10:00 EU German Industrial Prod. YoY (nsa wda) n/a 5.9%
8/8/2006 12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity 2Q P 1.2% 3.7%
8/8/2006 12:30 CAN Building Permits MoM 2.0% 6.9%
8/8/2006 12:30 US Unit Labor Costs 2Q P 3.5% 1.6%
8/8/2006 14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Aug n/a n/a
8/8/2006 18:15 US FOMC Rate Decision Expected 5.25% 5.25%
8/8/2006 21:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence n/a n/a

8/9/2006 01:30 AUS Home Loans n/a 4.7%
8/9/2006 01:30 AUS Investment Lending n/a 4.9%
8/9/2006 05:00 JPN Machine Orders YoY% 5.9% 15.8%
8/9/2006 08:30 UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn n/a -GBP6753
8/9/2006 08:30 UK Trade Balance Non EU25 GBP/Mn n/a -GBP3715
8/9/2006 09:30 UK Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report n/a n/a
8/9/2006 11:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 55.0% n/a
8/9/2006 12:15 CAN Housing Starts 225.0K 236.4K
8/9/2006 14:00 US Wholesale Inventories 0.6% 0.8%
8/9/2006 22:45 NZ Unemployment Rate 2Q n/a 3.9%
8/9/2006 23:50 JPN Domestic CGPI (YoY) n/a 3.3%
8/9/2006 23:50 JPN Export Price Index (YoY) n/a 4.8%
8/9/2006 23:50 JPN Import Price Index (YoY) n/a 18.5%
8/9/2006 23:50 JPN Current Account Total Yen1209.3B Yen1613.9B
8/9/2006 23:50 JPN Adjusted Current Account Total n/a Yen1580.5B
8/9/2006 23:50 JPN Trade Balance-BoP Basis n/a Yen467.4B

8/10/2006 01:30 AUS Employment Change n/a 52.0K
8/10/2006 01:30 AUS Unemployment Rate n/a 4.9%
8/10/2006 01:30 AUS Participation Rate n/a 64.8%
8/10/2006 05:00 JPN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting n/a n/a
8/10/2006 05:00 JPN Consumer Confidence 49.0 47.3
8/10/2006 05:00 JPN Consumer Confidence Households n/a 47.2
8/10/2006 06:00 JPN Machine Tool Orders (YoY) n/a 11.0%
8/10/2006 08:00 EU ECB Publishes Aug. Monthly Report n/a n/a
8/10/2006 12:01 NZ ANZ-Business NZ PMI n/a 52.1
8/10/2006 12:30 US Trade Balance -$64.4B -$63.8B
8/10/2006 12:30 CAN New Housing Price Index MoM 0.9% 1.3%
8/10/2006 12:30 CAN Int'l Merchandise Trade n/a C$4.1
8/10/2006 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims n/a n/a
8/10/2006 12:30 US Continuing Claims n/a n/a
8/10/2006 18:00 US Monthly Budget Statement -$48.0B -$53.4B
8/10/2006 23:50 JPN Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 2Q P n/a 0.8%
8/10/2006 23:50 JPN GDP Annualized 2Q P n/a 3.1%
8/10/2006 23:50 JPN GDP Deflator YoY 2Q P n/a -1.2%

8/11/2006 01:30 AUS Trade Balance n/a -2266M
8/11/2006 01:30 AUS Exports n/a 1645M
8/11/2006 01:30 AUS Imports n/a 18720M
8/11/2006 04:30 JPN Industrial Production (YoY) n/a 4.8%
8/11/2006 04:30 JPN Capacity Utilization n/a 103.9
8/11/2006 06:00 JPN BoJ Monthly Report n/a n/a
8/11/2006 12:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) n/a 7.2%
8/11/2006 12:30 US Advance Retail Sales 0.6% -0.1%
8/11/2006 12:30 US Retail Sales Less Autos 0.5% 0.3%
8/11/2006 12:30 US Business Inventories 0.5% 0.8%

martin brown said:

Economic calendar for week 06-Aug-2006 - 14-Aug-2006

Date / Time (GMT) / Source / Description / Forecast / Previous

8/7/2006 01:30 AUS ANZ Job Advertisements n/a -3.2%
8/7/2006 05:00 JPN Leading Economic Index n/a 77.3%
8/7/2006 05:00 JPN Coincident Index n/a 80.0%
8/7/2006 08:00 EU Bloomberg Germany Retail PMI n/a 54.7
8/7/2006 08:00 EU Bloomberg Eurozone Retail PMI n/a 55.1
8/7/2006 08:30 UK Industrial Production (YoY) n/a -0.7%
8/7/2006 08:30 UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) n/a 0.9%
8/7/2006 19:00 US Consu..............................................................

Click to expand...

Just what I was looking for Martin! Where is that from?

wasp said:

I have a feeling the trend will be pretty much sideways today Priceman!

Click to expand...

quite likely with the lack of U.S econ.data today, and FOMC decision tommorow...

...anyone know the market probability that they hike another 0.25% ?

BP pipeline shutdown forces up prices
By Graeme Evans, PA
Published: 07 August 2006

Oil prices jumped overnight after the UK energy giant BP was forced to begin a production shutdown at a major field in the US state of Alaska.

The closure process, which is expected to take several days to complete, is likely to reduce oil production by 400,000 barrels a day - equivalent to 8 per cent of oil production in the US.

News of the shutdown, which BP said was due to pipeline corrosion, lifted the price of crude oil for September delivery by around one US dollar to 75.75 US dollars in Asian trading. The market has also been affected by the continuing violence in the Middle East.

Victor Shum, an analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore, said: "The Middle East violence is a threat to the oil supply, but Alaska is a real disruption."

Crude inventories in the US are at a five-year high, meaning the shutdown at the Prudhoe Bay field will not have an immediate impact on supplies.

"But the market is in very high anxiety, so a real disruption affects the prices, even if there is no threat of a supply shortage," Mr Shum added.

BP Exploration Alaska began shutting down production yesterday due to severe pipeline corrosion and a small spill, estimated at about four to five barrels.

The company said it did not know how long the field would be closed for, although it added it was sending additional resources from North America to hasten the inspection of remaining transit lines. About 40 per cent have been inspected so far.

BP's Alaskan operation is already facing a criminal investigation into an oil spill in which 270,000 gallons of crude leaked into Prudhoe Bay.

BP America chairman and president Bob Malone said the field would not resume operating until the company and government regulators are satisfied it can run safely without threatening the environment.

He added: "We regret that it is necessary to take this action and we apologise to the nation and the State of Alaska for the adverse impacts it will cause."

Oil prices jumped overnight after the UK energy giant BP was forced to begin a production shutdown at a major field in the US state of Alaska.

The closure process, which is expected to take several days to complete, is likely to reduce oil production by 400,000 barrels a day - equivalent to 8 per cent of oil production in the US.

News of the shutdown, which BP said was due to pipeline corrosion, lifted the price of crude oil for September delivery by around one US dollar to 75.75 US dollars in Asian trading. The market has also been affected by the continuing violence in the Middle East.

Victor Shum, an analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore, said: "The Middle East violence is a threat to the oil supply, but Alaska is a real disruption."

Crude inventories in the US are at a five-year high, meaning the shutdown at the Prudhoe Bay field will not have an immediate impact on supplies.

"But the market is in very high anxiety, so a real disruption affects the prices, even if there is no threat of a supply shortage," Mr Shum added.

BP Exploration Alaska began shutting down production yesterday due to severe pipeline corrosion and a small spill, estimated at about four to five barrels.

The company said it did not know how long the field would be closed for, although it added it was sending additional resources from North America to hasten the inspection of remaining transit lines. About 40 per cent have been inspected so far.

BP's Alaskan operation is already facing a criminal investigation into an oil spill in which 270,000 gallons of crude leaked into Prudhoe Bay.

BP America chairman and president Bob Malone said the field would not resume operating until the company and government regulators are satisfied it can run safely without threatening the environment.

He added: "We regret that it is necessary to take this action and we apologise to the nation and the State of Alaska for the adverse impacts it will cause."