Trend indicator

Hi All,

I have been evaluating trend indicators lately. Came across Stalin, Notarius and recently Silver Trend (MT4 and MT5).

Had done backtesting, and found that Silver Trend provides excellent results, with little losses on whipsaws but large winners on trends.

The backtests (manual) were done on fx and commodities.

I am interested to know if anyone else have used these indicators, what are your verdicts and whether I can convert these indicators into expert trading advisors.

Cheers, hope to hear from you soon.

could you provide links to said indicators?

since you have done backtests, could you provide a critique, such as:

specific instruments traded; eg GBPUSD, EURUSD, etc
time-frames used; eg 1-hr, 4-hr etc
what kind of money management was used
how many trades taken
risk:reward model
approx return on investment on testing over the test period
does the indicator in question require special settings, or did you use default settings?

Good to hear someone saying they did backtests, rather than the usual lot who want you to do their work for them!

Could you also explain why the other indicators were rejected by you?
Did you test them over the same time-frames and test-data?

thanks

Hi Trendie
Thanks for your reply.
I shall attach the indicators. I am also including another indicator which I will explain later.

Backtest results are as follow (All tets on 1-hr chart)
Using STALIN indicator
Copper 2/12/11 to 20/4/12 (4.5mths); TotalProfit=US$462; US$92/mth. Stop loss US$2.00. Margin US$15
USDCHF 1/11/11 to 20/4/12 (6mths); Total Profit=2810pips; 470pips/mth. Stop Loss 40pips
Corn 19/9/11-20/4/12 (7mths); total profit=US$139; US$20/mth. Stop Loss $5. Margin US$8
Soyabean 2/12/11 - 20/4/12 (5mths); totalProfit=US$116; US$23/mth. Stop Loss $5. Margin US$10
Wheat 19/9/11-20/4/12 (7mths); TotalProfit=US$145: US$21/mth. Stop Loss $5. Margin $16.
Cocoa 19/9/11-20/4/12 (7mths); TotalProfit=US$174: US$25/mth. Stop Loss $50. Margin $10.
AUDCHF 1/11/11 to 20/4/12 (6mths); Total Profit=3310pips; 550pips/mth. Stop Loss 40pips
AUDUSD 1/11/11 to 20/4/12 (6mths); Total Profit=3530pips; 590pips/mth. Stop Loss 40pips
And a few more commodities.....

Using NOTARIUS indicator
EURUSD 24/10/11 to 24/4/12 (6mths); Total Profit=4642pips; 773pips/mth. Stop Loss 40pips
AUDCHF 24/10/11 to 24/4/12 (6mths); Total Profit=2524pips; 420pips/mth. Stop Loss 40pips

Using Silver Trend Indicator
Copper 2/12/11 to 20/4/12 (4.5mths); TotalProfit=US$997; US$222/mth. Stop loss US$2.00. Margin US$15

Note that these are manual backtests. There is yet EAs for these indicators.
A trailing stop was also used for all each test but the trailing stop was adjusted only once when a trade was in favour and the purpose was to adjust the stop to breakeven. Thereafter, the trade was allowed to ride the trend, if there was a trend, until the indicator indicated a reversal.

I favour trend trading. These indicators are all based on Trend (e.g. Stalin is based on Moving Average crossover and RSI filters, flat market and confirmed crossover filters).

Please note that, the backtests above will need to be redone because I discovered just recently there is a fundamental problems with these indicators. The signals that are generated are based on closing bar or candle. Therefore, the entry price is not the bar or candle itself; but the OPENING price of the next candle or bar. This will cause a big shift in entry prices, and therefore the results of the backtests.

I had a chance to run a Strategy Tester on MT4 and discovered how the indicators really will work in real-time. These indicators are also popularly called "Repainting" indicators - i.e. indications may be changed even after the bars have closed.

I have included another indicator which is modification of the Silver Trend. CAlled "SHI Silver Trend Sig". On historical charts, the signals provided are earlier and more robust than the original Silver Trend. However, I am still not able to run it on Strategy Tester. I will however run it on my LIve account tomorrow when the market opens and will be glad to publish the results in this forum.

Sorry for the long comments here.....Happy reading....

SHI trend Follower

Hye Singa_Trader, just came across your discussion here..... I just had a look at the indicator you mentioned and SHI silvers seems to be good, what is the settings you are engaging in it and is there anywhere I can get a tutorial on how to use it exactly....... with proper tf and the right SL setting...... Many thanx in advance..

I think moving averages like SMA and EMA are the simplest and best technical indicators for trend following. I have tested the strategy based on these indicators and found that EMAs crossover is best way to do the trend based trading.

mcrlogitech said:

I think moving averages like SMA and EMA are the simplest and best technical indicators for trend following. I have tested the strategy based on these indicators and found that EMAs crossover is best way to do the trend based trading.

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I don't believe you are a trader. Only as far back as August you were saying you'd like to learn how to trade. I say taking your advice is worthless.