Daily Technical Analysis for Majors

EUR/USD Hit by Wave of Profit Taking

Last Updated on Thursday, 1 March 2012 04:49
Written by FxTT Analysis Department
Thursday, 1 March 2012 04:49

EUR/USD:

European Central Bank’s cash injection passed without a surprise and Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony failed to signal new measures to stimulate the US economy. We saw a classic “buy the rumor sell the fact” action from big players. The pair retraced back to previous resistance level at 1.3310 and testing as support now. If this level holds, the pair would try to move higher and test 1.3400 resistance. 1.3480 is the next and strong resistance. If the Bears continue the push downward and manage to break 1.3310, look for support at 1.3220 and 1.3135.


EUR/USD Chart


GBP/USD:

The cable seems less affected by the troubles within the EU but 1.5990-1.6000 zone is an important zone to overcome in order for pair to continue its rise. The pair is slightly bullish by the time of writing and I will be watching 1.5950 and 1.5880 levels before making any decisions. If GBP/USD goes below 1.5880, we will probably visit 1.5810. Next support level is at 1.5765.


GBP/USD Chart


USD/CHF:

USD/CHF bounced from 0.8930 and now it is pulling back to the first resistance level at 0.9100. I don’t think it will be easy for the bulls to pass this level. However, USD/CHF is slightly manipulated because of the Swiss National Bank and its 1.20 floor on EUR/CHF. If the pair can move above 0.9100, the next strong resistance is located at 0.9250. To the downside, the bears will indeed need to break 0.8930 with 0.8765 being the next key support level.


USD/CHF Chart


USD/CAD:

USD/CAD will remain bearish and selling pressure will increase if it can’t move above 0.9900 level. The next support level is located at 0.9790. I am bearish until the pair trades above 1.0053 level.


USD/CAD Chart

EUR/USD Rises on Greek Debt Deal Optimism

EUR/USD:
The EUR/USD has managed to stay above 1.3100 and climbed slowly but the pair couldn’t pass 1.3160 resistance. There are important events today so the market may stay calm during the Asian session. Investors will focus on the ECB policy decision and participation in the Greek debt swap. Reports about Greece’s debt restructuring efforts made some progress stopped the euro from falling deeper. A positive outcome should clear the way for the next aid package and help Greece avoid a messy default. However, any suggestion the deadline might be extended would probably disappoint the markets. It is quite possible that the pair will continue its bullish tendencies on hopes but the bulls have to move above 1.3160 first. If the pair can pass and stay above this level, the pair may test 1.3240 resistance first, next though resistance will be waiting the bulls at 1.3220. If the pair fails to stay above 1.3160, we will eventually go below 1.3100 and test 1.3000.

GBP/USD:
It seems that the bearish action on the GBP/USD ended temporarily. The pair was able to stay above 1.57 support but it is still below an important resistance at 1.5765. BoE policy decision today will probably send the cable either above 1.5765 or below 1.5700. If the bulls can pass 1.5765, 1.5810 and 1.5880 will be the next resistance levels ahead of them. If the pair falls below 1.5700, we may see 1.5640 in a short time. 1.5560 is the next support below that.

AUD/USD:
Even though employment figures were worse than expected, AUD/USD managed to stay 1.0550 level so far today. This level is also the 23.6% fibonacci level based on the bullish run from 09662 to 1.0850. As a result I think that the pair will make an attempt to pass 1.0600 resistance first. If the pair can break this level, the bulls may have a chance to test 1.0690 resistance. If the pair closes today below 1.0550, then it will head to 1.0440.

USD/JPY:
After failing to break the 82 line the pair fell back and found support at 80.60. The pair may consolidate between 81.85 and 80.60 this week before we see a breakout. If the pair makes a close above 82, look for 94. On the down side, watch for support at 80.60 and 80.25.

The European Central Bank Kept Interest Rates Unchanged

EUR/USD:
The pair was pretty bullish yesterday and managed to close above daily moving average(100). The latest news about Greece was positive and The ECB signaled that it won’t cut interest rates further. The euro is being bought because Greece is overcoming a hurdle but of course we need to see the announcement and more details before making any decisions. Today, there is a good chance that markets will turn their focus to the U.S. economy. I expect today’s range will be between 1.3320 and 1.3240 ahead of the release of U.S. employment data. If the pair can stay above 1.3240 there is a strong possibility that we will test 1.3320 resistance. Above that level, I will look for 1.3390 and 1.3480. However, if the bears take over the control and bring the pair below 1.3240, we will head to 1.3160 again.

GBP/USD:
The cable climbed yesterday after it passed the first barrier at 1.5765. It is quite possible that the pair will continue its bullish tendencies (if it can stay above 1.5790) and try to test the next resistance at 1.5880. But if the pair falls below that line, we will head back to 1.5765/35 zone.

AUD/USD:
The latest report released by the Bureau of Statistics showed Australia’s trade balance unexpectedly turned to a deficit. AUD/USD needs to pass 1.0690 level in order to continue rising but it may be hard. I think we will spend some more days between 1.0690 and 1.0550.

USD/CAD:
USD/CAD fell back to 0.9900 line after it failed to stay above the parity. If the pair can’t move above 0.9930 during London session, I think it is highly possible that the pair will test 0.9850 support today. If the bulls can push the pair above 0.9930 level again, we will test 1.00 level next week.

Markets Continue To React To Weak Chinese Data

EUR/USD:

The pair rose on hopes eurozone finance ministers will complete a second Greek bailout today. If everything goes fine Greece will receive €5.9 billion within this month. Today the markets’ focus will be on the U.S. as investors awaits policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. I think the pair will be capped under 1.3220 resistance line until the announcement. So I expect that the pair will consolidate between 1.3160 and 1.3220/40 before the announcement. 1.3220/40 zone is a tough nut to crack but if it can push through this key resistance, the pair will test 1.3265. If EUR/USD falls below 1.3140, support will be seen at 1.3090 and 1.3040. I am bearish on this pair until it trades above 1.33
EUR/USD Chart
EUR/USD Chart



GBP/USD:

GBP/USD is hovering around a critical support level at 1.5645. The pair will be under the selling pressure as long as price remains below 1.5765. Today resistance levels to watch will be 1.5670, 1.5722 and 1.5765. To the downside, there is support at 1.5645, 1.5580 and 1.5510.
GBP/USD Chart
GBP/USD Chart



AUD/USD:

AUD/USD is losing its strength as markets continue to react to weak Chinese trade figures. Yesterday the pair fell to 1.0472, its lowest level since January 25. The market is bearish below 1.0600 and the pair will possibly test 1.0400 support unless the bulls manage to pull the pair above this key level. If the pair makes a daily close above 1.0600, I will be looking for 1.0690. If the bears continue the push downward, look for support at 1.0440, 1.0400 and 1.0305
AUD/USD Chart
AUD/USD Chart



USD/JPY:

The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy has been in the spotlight after surprising markets by boosting asset purchases by 10 trillion yen. Today BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will hold a news conference at around 0630 GMT, after the central bank’s policy statement. If BoJ conducts more monetary easing, we may see the pair testing 83.09 and 83.40 levels. To the downside, there will be support at 81.85, 81,09 and 80,60.

Fitch Ratings Changed The Outlook On UK

The markets continue to react to Fed’s statement. EUR/USD fell to a one-month low of 1.3008 after triggering stop-loss orders below support at $1.3050. The markets are still nervous about the eurozone and the situation in Europe has been driving everything. Now the things are changing as the recent U.S. economic data suggest that the overall economy and customer sentiment are improving. If the recent economic strength continues, then the Fed will be less likely to launch another round of bond buying. According to the daily charts, the euro is under the selling pressure when the market trades below 1.3050. If the pair fails to bounce back up, that would give the bears the opportunity to break the 1.30 level. Once the pair is below this crucial level, look for 1.2950 and 1.2873. There is plenty of resistance to be concerned about to the upside with daily moving average(50) at 1.3090 and the daily resistance at 1.3160 (38.2% Fibonacci level). Bear in mind that there are 4 key news items for the greenback including PPI, Unemployment Claims, TIC Long-Term purchases and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index numbers.


GBP/USD had another volatile day. The pair tried to break 34EMA, which has been acting like a S/R line, but failed to break this barrier as Fitch Ratings changed the outlook on UK from “stable” to “negative”. Currently the pair is stuck between 1.5740 and 1.5640. 1.5600 is an important level for the bulls to protect but if it gives way, the pair would fall to 1.55 and possibly 1.53 in fairly quick order. If prices rise from this level, look for resistance at 1.5700, 1.5740 and 1.5815. It appears that there is still a lot of possible headwinds in both directions so the pair is probably best left alone until the range is broken out of completely.




USD/CHF is strongly bullish and it is quite possible that the pair will continue rising as long as it stays above 0.9250/00 zone. If the pair can stay above 0.9300, buying pressure will increase and its next targets will be 0.9380, 0.9474 and 0.9600. If prices turn bearish from here, support will be seen at 0.9250, 0.9200 and 0.9163 levels. Keep in mind that the pair is a slightly manipulated one, because of the SNB and its 1.20 EUR/CHF floor.



USD continued to climb against JPY and this is the sixth straight bullish week in a row. 84.00/10 zone may slow the bulls down for a while though. This is an important level because a bearish weekly trend line is passing as well. If the bulls can break and hold above the 84 level, the pair’s next target will be 85.50. If it fails to break above and turns bearish, look for support at 83.10, 82.60 and 82.25.

At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade

USD Faces Profit Taking

EUR/USD:

The US dollar weakened against the euro, despite the data released last night showed the U.S. economy continues to improve. EUR/USD was in a consolidation mode during the Asian and London sessions. EUR/USD climbed after failing to break below 1.3000 support level. Now the pair is trading at 1.3085. In order to remain bullish, price needs to break 1.3160. If the bulls can penetrate this barrier, the next and important resistance, which is also daily moving average(100), is located at 1.3220. If the bears increase the pressure and take over, the pair will revisit support at 1.3000. Again markets will be most focused on figures that provide a measure of strength of the U.S. economy. Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and CPI numbers will be released today.


GBP/USD:

GBP/USD had been very choppy yesterday. The near-term news has undoubtedly got better, certainly than was the case in November. It is also possible that funding and credit conditions could improve. As a result, the pair rose and tested EMA(34). This is a critical level for the Cable. It will need to break above 1.5700 before challenging 1.5810 on its way to 1.6000. This is possible for sure, but it is early to tell. However if price turns bearish and the bears follow through, the pair’s next targets will be 1.5530 and 1.5470.


AUD/USD:

Data this month has shown just how much pain the strong AUD has inflicted on Australia’s economy. However demand from central banks seeking to diversify their reserves has been holding the AUD above the parity for a long time. AUD/USD is trading at 1.0543 by the time of typing and 4-Hour chart is indicating that we could see prices pushing higher. The pair stopped its fall yesterday at the 38.2 fibonacci level and bounced back to 1.0500 resistance after it broke the wedge formation. If the pair holds above 1.0500, look for 1.0599 and 1.0690. If the bears win the battle, there will be support at 1.0477 and 1.0400.


USD/CHF:

USD and EUR slipped against CHF after the Swiss National Bank kept policy steady as expected. The SNB doubled its growth forecast for 2012 and said it was determined to enforce its cap on the strong franc at 1.20 per euro because it was helping stabilize the economy. The Swiss franc strengthened after the SNB announcement and pulled back to 0.9200. If price holds above 0.9200 and turns bullish, look for resistance at 0.9287 and 0.9347. If it can’t stay above 0.9200, look for support at 0.9140 and 0.9090.

At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade

The IMF Approved €28 Billion Loan For Greece

EUR/USD:


USD sell off was the theme of Friday after the US data was released. The softer than expected CPI report and weaker University of Michigan CSI proved sufficient enough reason to sell the greenback across the board. A rise in Treasury bond yields after recent strong economic data indicated that investors betting that the Fed may be more aggressive and tighten monetary policy sooner than anticipated. EUR/USD bounced from 1.3003 (which is 23.6 fibo retracement) and closed the week at 1.3165. The pair also formed a hammer on the weekly chart. This indicates that the pair will test daily moving average (100), which is located at 1.3210. If the pair is strong enough pass 1.3210/40 resistance zone, look for 1.3300, 1.3370 and 1.3455. If price does not break and hold above 1.3240, then it will retrace to at least 1.3110.



GBP/USD:

The cable closed the week at 1.5830 after a bullish week. It seems that the pair will test 1.5880, the first barrier which the bears will try to stop the bulls. If the bulls win the fight, look for 1.5932 1.5986. However, it is possible that the pair will retrace back to 1.5810 or 1.5780 before edging higher.



USD/CHF:

The USD/CHF had reversed after failing to break the strong resistance at 0.9330. If the pair turns north and climb on Monday, expect resistance at 0.9200, 0.9250 and 0.9300/30 levels. I think this week’s range will be between 0.9250 and 0.9050. To the downside, there is support at 0.9150 and 0.9085.


USD/JPY:

It seems that USD/ JPY will have hard time breaking the long term trend line. If the bears increase the pressure, expect it to retrace to at least 82.93 or 82.40. To the upside, there will be resistance at 84.15 and 84.78. It is possible to see USD/JPY testing resistance at 83.80 so I would advise watching JPY crosses as well.

Today's Analysis for EURUSD

Hello,

Please find our Today's Analysis for EURUSD.


"Have a green day!"

EUR/USD Climbs As Eurozone Worries Ease

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD had a bullish day after New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley’s comments fueled worries about the health of the U.S. economy. He said “The U.S. economy still faces significant headwinds and there are some meaningful downside risks. It is far too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods in terms of generating a strong, sustainable recovery.”. Even though there has been no significant improvement in the eurozone, 1.30 support remained intact lately. EUR/USD daily charts suggest that the pair will remain bullish as long as the pair trades above 1.3200. If the pair holds above 1.3210, which is the daily moving average (100), it is possible to see another attempt towards 1.3400 level. If price does rally and resume heading north, look for resistance at 1.3290 and 1.3330. If the pair reverses at 1.3240, which is 38.2 fibonacci level, support will be seen at 1.3200, 1.3160 and 1.3110.



GBP/USD:

GBP/USD has been doing its best to sustain these extreme overbought levels. The U.K. has the third highest deficit in the G-7 but the market remains optimistic as the country will not ease austerity in its budget. I expect to see some retracement and touch 1.5850/30 before the bulls try to push the pair higher. If the pair can move above 1.5880, it would head to previous month’s high at 1.5990. If prices turn bearish from here, look for support at 1.5830, 1.5800 and 1.5770.



AUD/USD:

AUD/USD has been pulling back lately, but the previous week it found support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace level. The pair has been overly bullish for several months now, and it appears that the pair completed a sell-off since 29 February. As a result, the pullbacks are probably going to attract buyers going forward. Worries about the Chinese economy is slowing may put pressure on AUD though. Resistance levels to watch will be 1.0665, 1.0705 and 1.0800 with support levels at 1.0550, 1.0510 and 1.0420.

USD/CAD:

This pair has been looking for a direction for weeks. The upside is protected by the parity level and the Canadian dollar normally gains from higher oil prices so it is hard to buy this pair at the moment. On the way down there will be support at 0.9850, 0.9790 and 0.9705. Resistance levels are located at 0.9905, 1.0000 and 1.0050.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade

Investors are Cautious Ahead of Bernanke’s Testimony

EUR/USD:


Economic data released from the Eurozone and the U.S. were slightly better than expected. EUR/USD traded as low as 1.3172 but European Central Bank council member Ewald Nowotny’s comments on Portugal and current situation pushed the pair above 1.3220. Even though the pair had a bearish day, price is still above 100 daily moving average. Daily charts indicate that the bulls will try to push the pair above 1.3250 once more. 1.3250 is a vital point at the moment. If the bulls want to dominate the pair, they should definitely shatter this barrier. The next resistance levels to watch will be 1.3287, 1.3350 and 1.3410. If prices turn bearish from here, look for support at 1.3200, 1.3160 and 1.3092. Today, the market’s focus will be on the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Existing home sales data.



GBP/USD:


After 3 bullish days, GBP/USD had an inside day (which technically means that a move above/below yesterday’s high/low tends to extend that direction further) with a lower close. The bears are trying to protect 1.5900 barrier as much as possible and the bulls are defending 1.5800 support level. Once this range is broken, the cable will close the week accordingly. Though, the sentiment is bullish as long as the pair trades above 1.5800. Resistance levels to watch will be 1.5900, 1.5970/90 and 1.6021 with support levels at 1.5800, 1.5744 and 1.5640.




AUD/USD:


The Chinese slowdown had an effect on the commodity currencies, especially on Australian dollar. AUD fell against USD after BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) said China’s steel production is slowing, boosting concern about the nation’s growth outlook. The pair stopped its bearish free fall at 1.0450. As long as 1.0450/20 zone can hold it is possible to see an attempt to climb towards 1.0600. If AUD/USD can pass and hold above this level look for 1.0552 and 1.0630. If the pair resumes its fall, there will be support at 1.0420, 1.0374 and 1.0310.




USD/CHF:


After the pair failed to pass 0.9300, it has been sinking. It seems that the pair found some support again at 0.9100 but I doubt it will hold today.If it breaks below 0.9080, look for support at 0.9040 and 0.8990. To the upside, there will be resistance at 0.9160, 0.9210 and 0.9250.


At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade

JPY Gains On Unexpected Trade Surplus

EUR/USD:

The euro ran out of steam just below 1.33. EUR/USD fell after the latest data showed that the U.S. housing market is stabilizing and very gradually carving out a recovery. Also fading expectations of more monetary easing by the Federal Reserve hampered the euro. There is a tough battle going on between the bulls and the bears so it is probably better to step aside and just watch until the dust settles. The pair has to stay above 1.32 key level in order to have another change to break 1.3280. Closing above this level will mean a re-test of last month’s high at 1.3484. If the bears win the battle and push the pair below 1.3200, look for support at 1.3156/46, 1.3100 and 1.3040. A close below 1.3150 may increase the selling pressure on the pair remarkably.



GBP/USD:


The GBP/USD stumbled from the 1.5924 following a much more dovish release of the BOE minutes. The pair tested 1.5820 after BOE members Posen and Miles voted for further quantitative easing. Unexpected increase in the public sector borrowing was another important element. The pair has been stuck in 1.58-1.59 range for 3 days, therefore the outlook is unclear while we continue to trade in this range. At this point it would be more logical to wait for a breakout of this 1.5800-900 sideways range to get clear idea on the further direction of move. Once the pair breaks out this range, Resistance levels to watch will be 1.5960, 1.5990 and 1.6021 with support levels at 1.5740 and 1.5650.



USD/CHF:


USD/CHF got good support near 0.9080 and bounced above 0.9115. If price can stay above this level and moves higher, look for resistance at 0.9200, 0.9250 and 0.9330. Pair would turn bullish if 0.9250 is left behind. If the bears win and we see prices break the support zone at 0.9080, look for support at 0.9038, 0.9015 and 0.8930.




USD/JPY:


USD/JPY closed the day lower than open. The pair climbed to 84.08 but couldn’t pass this strong barrier. Daily candle indicates that the higher prices are being rejected by traders, as a result it is possible to see the pair sliding back to 82.96. If 82.96 support is broken, look for 82.30 and 81.85. To the upside, there will be resistance at 83.70, 84.15 and 85.


At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade

Chinese Data Disappoints Forex Investors

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD had a very volatile day after this morning’s terrible data out of Europe and the better than forecasted US data. The softer European data is forcing investors to watch European peripheral states again, as reports circulate about concerns many have about Spain. The yield on the Spanish 10-year note continues to push out to fresh two-month highs. While few expect the euro zone’s debt crisis to be resolved anytime soon, given that crucial structural reforms require several years, investors were yet again reminded of the long road ahead. EUR/USD bounced after touching daily moving average (50) and now the pair is trying to pass 1.3200 line. If the pair can’t stay above 1.3180 which is also daily moving average (100), it would pull back to 1.3150 area again. A weekly close below 1.3150 may give hard time to EUR bulls. In order for the bulls to take control, they should pull the pair above 1.3230 at least. Tomorrow resistance levels to watch will be 1.3230, 1.3280 and 1.3352 with support levels at 1.3150, 1.3100 and 1.3030.




GBP/USD:

The latest retail sales data showed that sales including fuel fell 0.8% from January. This indicates that consumers will be cautious in their spending for some time. Today’s retail sales data add to evidence that growth expectations for the first quarter are probably going to have to be lowered. GBP/USD dived after the news and traded as low 1.5770. The pair found support at this EMA 34 level and bounced back to 1.5820. If the pair passes and holds above this crucial, the bulls may find the power they need to break 1.5900 and 1.5970. If the bears increase the pressure, look for support at 1.5744 and 1.5650.




AUD/USD:

Another round of weak Chinese data hit the Australian dollar. The HSBC Flash Manufacturing China PMI data, the earliest indicator of China’s industrial activity, showed further contraction. AUD/USD broke an important support level at 1.0420 and fell sharply. For now price is hovering around 1.0350 support. If the pair finds strong support, it is possible to see a bounce to previous support (now resistance) at 1.0420. Above 1.0420, there will be more resistance at 1.0470 and especially 1.0525. As long as the pair trades below 1.0420, it is highly possible to see 1.0250 very soon.




USD/CAD:

The USD/CAD pair has been in a tight range for some time. The biggest reason for this is the fact that the oil markets have been so erratic. The Greenback continued to climb against the Canadian dollar but the bears are defending the parity level again. But it may not be so long. If the pair can break 1.00 level, it will have a chance to test 1.0050 resistance. Above 1.0050 there will be resistance at 1.0100 and 1.0153. To the downside there will be support at 0.9941, 0.9900 and .09870.

EUR/USD Gains on U.S. Outlook

EUR/USD:

The forex market was volatile as the headlines and investors’ focus changed often during the last two days. EUR/USD slipped after disappointing Manufacturing and Services PMI figures, and then the next day the pair climbed and hit 1.3290 after the U.S. Census Bureau reported that new single-family home sales came in weaker than expected, stoking fears that housing sector still faces hurdles. Well, the moving averages are coming together and the market is looking for a move to follow. Probably Monday or Tuesday the investors will see where the pair going next. Last week’s weekly candle was a hammer and Friday’s close was higher than the previous 4 days. The weekly chart is positive and showing that it is possible for the pair to go all the way up to the 1.3385-1.3405 area as long as it holds above 1.3210-1.3190. Passing 1.33 barrier would give the bulls the fuel they need. If the pair turns bearish and falls breaks below 1.3150, expect support at 1.3200, 1.3160 and 1.3100. German business, consumer climate and US consumer confidence figures will be watched closely.



GBP/USD:

For the last 2 months the pair has been trapped in a range which is about 400 pips wide. With the budget problems still weighing on Britain’s AAA credit rating, and slowing recovery in the US economy, the investors can’t seem to make up their mind about GBP/USD. So for the moment all we are dealing with is flat on macd. It is positive that the pair is trading above 50 daily moving average but the bulls failed to climb above 1.5900 for the last 5 trading days. If price does rally and resume heading north, look for plenty of resistance at 1.5900 and 1.6000. If price reverses and starts to head south, 1.5800 will be an important level to watch. A daily close below this level may send the pair back to 1.5650. In addition, the pair appears to be forming a classic head&shoulders pattern on the daily chart GBP/USD will need to break either above 1.5900 or lower than 1.5800 before it can resume trending.



USD/JPY:

USD/JPY broke below 82.96 support, retraced back to test it as resistance and fell afterwards. For now it seems that the pair stopped its bearish free fall but as long as it trades below 83 level, selling pressure would increase in time. The pair may test 81.85 support, which also short term daily trend line, before it starts rising. If the bulls take over, look for 82.96, 83.70 and 84.10. Keep in mind that Bank of Japan will be watching the pair closely.



USD/CHF:

The pair closed the week just above an important support line at 0.9080. The pair looks heavy when it trades below 0.9200. If the bearish action continues today and beyond, there will be support at 0.9016 and 0.8930. To the upside, there will be resistance at 0.9150, 0.9200 and 0.9250.

At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade

EUR/USD Gains After Bernanke’s Comments

EUR/USD:

During London session, the pair tested daily moving average (100) at 1.3190 as support after IFO Economist Wohlrable commented that the German economy was losing some of its momentum. Once the markets had apparently settled down after the IFO data, unexpectedly dovish comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke gave the EURUSD a lift and the pair finally broke 1.3280 resistance level. Support at 1.3250 and especially 1.3190 will need to hold in order to see the bullish tenancies continue. The pair will head to 1.3385-1.3405, 1.3516 and maybe even 1.3762. However it is possible to see a pullback to test 1.3280 as a support level before climbing higher. To the downside, there will be strong support at 1.3250 and 1.3206-1.3190. The investors’ sentiment remain bullish for now but very long term picture may be different as Spain, Italy and Portugal are struggling to get growth and even Germany and France are slowing.



GBP/USD:

Sterling bulls stopped the bears around 1.5800 support level and pushed the pair up once again. This time the bulls broke through 1.5900 resistance which GBP/USD has been struggling to pass. Now the next target will be 1.6000. If the bulls successfully breach this level, GBP/USD will probably be heading for a re-test of the 5 month high at 1.6055. If price reverses and starts to fall, 1.5942, 1.5865/50, 1.5800 and 1.5755 will be the support levels to watch.



USD/CAD:

USD/CAD daily charts show that pair continues to struggle above the parity mark. The Friday candle had formed a shooting star, signaling that pulling back below the parity was imminent. It seems that trading range will be tight for some more days. If the bulls can push the pair above 0.9945, look for 1.00 and 1.0050. To the downside, there will be support at 0.9900 and 0.9870.



AUD/USD:

Last week the pair had tested 1.04 support (it is also the 38.2% Fibonacci level) successfully. Yesterday’s price action suggests that if AUD/USD can pass and hold above 1.0550/68, it will try to climb higher. Though it is possible to see a retracement towards 1.0455 area first. Today, resistance levels to watch will be 1.0605, 1.0650, and 1.0708 with support levels below of 1.0480, 1.0420 and 1.0390.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade

German Consumer Confidence Slips

EUR/USD:

The market is still digesting Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments. EUR/USD climbed to its highest level in March as the market continued to put economic growth concerns on the sidelines and continued to focus on policy stimulus. The pair tested 1.3385 resistance yesterday and pulled back to 1.33 level. For this week, 1.32 will be a key level for EUR/USD. As long as this level can hold the bulls will be dominating and prices will go north, resistance levels are located at 1.3385, 1.3418 and 1.3481. However, after Monday’s strong move, it is quite possible that the pair will see some retracement before heading higher. If we do, look for support at 1.3300, 1.3242 and 1.3197. Daily charts indicates that in the short term there could be more upside for EUR/USD but the crisis in the eurozone is not over yet. Therefore many investors will be looking to short this pair (or take their profit) around the 1.35 level if they see any significant weakness.





GBP/USD:

GBP/USD is supported by its crosses and still strong but the bulls may need high volume to crack 1.6000 resistance level. Today, the market participants will be watching the Current Account and GDP data closely. The pair is bullish above 1.5900 and there is no strong resistance above 1.6000, until 1.6125. However, if the pair fails to break and hold above 1.6000, expect a pull back towards 1.5855 level.



USD/CHF:

USD/CHF is hovering just above its trend line. If the pair breaks this trend line and closes below 0.9000, selling pressure would increase and send the pair to 0.8930 level in no time. At this point, the pair may retrace back to 0.9080 level, which was a long term support, and test it as a resistance this time. If the bulls win the battle, there will be resistance at 0.9150 and 0.9200. If price turns bearish around 0.9080, the pair will most likely pull back to around 0.9000 with a close below this level possibly indicating further bearish direction.





USD/JPY:

USD/JPY continues to rise after it bounced from its trend line. Daily charts indicate that the pair is bullish as long as it trades above 82.30. During today’s trading sessions resistance levels to watch will be 83.40, 83.80, and 84.15 with support levels below of 82.30, 81.85 and 81.10.



At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade

Australian Dollar Loses Steam

EUR/USD:

We will see that investors’ focus will be turning to the headlines from the eurozone as strengthening the EZ financial firewall will be discussed at the EU Summit this weekend. EUR/USD will probably stay bullish on hopes that the ceiling on rescue aid will be increased. EUR/USD was able to climb to 1.3372 yesterday but slowing Chinese economy and concerns about debt-plagued countries in the EZ limited gains and the pair fell back to test (Fibonacci 28.6) 1.3280 level which was a strong resistance level during the last couple of weeks. EUR/USD found support at this area but it closed the day slightly lower than opening. Today’s key levels to watch will be 1.3280 and 1.3380. If price closes below 1.3280, expect the 1.3200 level to be tested. If price goes below 1.3200, 1.3160 will be next. However, if the pair holds above 1.3280 expect to see a test of the daily pivot at 1.3337. The next resistance levels are located at 1.3363 and 1.3410.



GBP/USD:

The cable had a bearish day after the bulls failed to pass 1.6000 twice on Monday. The weaker GDP data triggered another wave of selling and the cable tested the bottom line of ascending trend line at 1.5850 on 4H chart. In order for bulls to maintain control, the pair should stay above 1.5900 line. The first though challenge awaits the bulls at 1.5960. If prices break this level with high volume, then the bulls can march to the next target at 1.6000. If the bears take over around 1.5900, look for 1.5850, 1.5800 and 1.5740.



AUD/USD:

There is more of a cautious mood setting in across the currency market as a result we see the high risk-high yielding assets like AUD lose steam. AUD/USD has been slipping on fears about the Chinese economy. Disappointing Chinese economic data pushed the pair below a critical level at 1.0400 (Fibonacci 38.2) level. Hopes of an interest rate cut will be priced in as well. The bearish outlook will remain until the pair trades above 1.0550 and selling pressure will increase if the pair fails to climb above 1.0400. To the upside, there will be resistance at 1.0400, 1.0455 and 1.0520. To the downside, expect to see support at 1.0333, 1.0284 and 1.0260.



USD/CAD:

The pair is still moving inside its tight range, trying to find a direction. If USD/CAD fails to pass and hold above the parity again, the bears may take over the control and pull the pair back to 0.9870. If the pair turns bullish and close above 1.00 level, expect to see resistance at 1.0025 and 1.0050. To the downside there is support at 0.9945 and 0.9900.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade

This thread is kind of disappointing. I'm a big fan of The Fall Guy and this is not what I was expecting at all.

Will EU Summit Rescue Euro

EUR/USD:


Yesterday the EUR/USD slipped on renewed fears that contagion from the eurozone debt crisis could infect the region’s financial system and closed the day slightly lower than opening. The pair tested 34EMA and the daily support level at 1.3250 after S&P ratings agency said Greece may have to restructure its debt again. EUR/USD bounced back above 1.3280, critical s/r level, as investors are expecting EU summit today to approve bolstering the region’s rescue fund. Today is also end of the week, month and quarter so unusual activities wouldn’t be surprising. On daily charts EUR/USD is bullish above the critical support and trend line at 1.3280. In order to confirm a bullish breakout of this trend line, the pair has to stay above 1.3340 which is the current weekly resistance level. If the bulls can pass this barrier, the pair will head to 1.3400, 1.3475 and 1.3514. If the bulls fail to keep the pair above 1.3250, price will head back to next support at 1.3200. Investors will increase Selling pressure, if the pair slips below the 1.3150 support level. If eurozone finance ministers decide to enlarge the rescue package, it would be possible to see EUR climbing but if they disappoint the markets, it may trigger a sell-off.






GBP/USD:


GBP/USD closed the day at its highest levels after bouncing successfully from the bottom line of ascending trend channel. GBP bulls regained their strength and pushed the pair above 1.5900 resistance line even though Nationwide HPI and Mortgage Approvals reports were weaker than forecasted. If the bulls are able to hold the pair above 1.5960 and 1.6000, buying pressure will increase and we will probably reach 1.6125. If the bears defend 1.6000 and pair starts to fall, there will be support at 1.5900, 1.5870 and 1.5800. A close below 1.5775 would negate the bullish trend.




USD/CHF:


USD/CHF is sitting on its daily ascending trend line. The pair looks like it is trying to wind up for a move as the range keeps getting tighter. USD/CHF spent the last days in 0.90-0.91 range. Daily charts show that a breakout will happen soon. The best thing to do is to wait and confirm the direction before opening any positions. If the bulls win the fight and pull the pair higher, look for 0.9115, 0.9149 and 0.9195. If the pair turns bearish and starts to fall, expect to see support at 0.9015 and 0.9840.




USD/JPY:


JPY is firmer heading into its fiscal year-end. Even though the pair broke as low as 81.88, it closed the day above daily support level at 82.30. But the pair looks heavy. Uncertainty over the global economic recovery again aided the JPY. Meanwhile Japanese Finance Minister said they will extend fx position monitoring measures by three months. Support levels will be 82.30, 81.85 and 81.10. Resistance levels are located at 82.80, 83.18 and 84.00.


At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade

Yen is Under the Pressure

EUR/USD:

Lately we see that EUR/USD is consolidating between 1.3385 and 1.3275. EUR/USD closed the day lower than opening on Monday after the economic data showed that eurozone unemployment hit fresh high of 10.8%. This is the highest level since the euro was introduced. U.S. manufacturing data came in better than forecasted and that was another element weakening the euro against the greenback. For now 1.3280 is showing strong support and the pair will remain bullish as long as the pair trades above this level. If price drops lower than 1.3280, the bears will probably try to pull the pair back to 1.3230 and 1.3160. If the bulls are able to break and hold above 1.3380, expect a movement towards 1.3475-1.3500 zone. Since Europe problems can be solved only by tackling the real causes, the 1.3500 barrier may be tough to break.



GBP/USD:

Recently GBP/USD is stronger than EUR/USD. Yesterday the pair traded as high as 1.6060 after UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1 from a revised 51.5. Bearish EUR/GBP is also helping the pair. It seems that the bullish momentum is slowing during the Asian session today, therefore it is possible to see a pullback to 1.6025 first and then to 1.5965-1.5940 area before we see another rally attempt. If the pair falls below 1.5900, selling pressure would increase and the pair may head back to 1.5863 and then even 1.5800. If the pair continues to trade above 1.5930, the bulls may have another chance to push the price higher. If that is the case, there will most likely be resistance at 1.6073 and 1.6164.



USD/CHF:

Today, the pair is moving near a critical support level at 0.9000. If the pair closes below this level, look for 0.8940 and 0.8868. If the pair turns bullish and can close above 0.9100, expect to see resistance at 0.9176 and 0.9200. The USD/CHF has seen quite a sell-off since it touched 0.9330. USD/CHF is clearly benefiting directly from the recent easing of tension in the eurozone.



USD/JPY:

USD/JPY was rather volatile yesterday. The pair had formed a hammer on the daily chart on Friday but it failed to break first important resistance at 83.30. On the other hand, USD/JPY tested 81.50 support 3 days in a row. But we see that pair slipped below 81.85 and traded as low as 81.56. To the downside, there is support at 81.50 and 81.06. To the upside, there is resistance at 82.80, 83.30 and 83.52.

At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade

EUR/USD Sinks as Fed Minutes Soften Stimulus Bias

EUR/USD:

Yesterday EUR/USD fell sharply after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting suggested the central bank was less likely to take further stimulus measures. Since many investors were positioned for the next round of quantitative easing, markets reacted strongly after the Fed diminished expectations. Today, after the dust settles, focus will be back to the Europe and debt crisis. Even though today’s European Central Bank meeting is unlikely to deliver any major surprises, markets will be watching President Mario Draghi’s press conference carefully. Other than ECB rate announcement, there will be 2 key news items which may have impact on EUR/USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change reports. EUR/USD is sinking during the Asian session. The pair failed to hold above the daily moving average (50). If the pair keeps falling and price drops lower than 1.3200, look for support at 1.3160-40 zone. If price breaks below 1.3140, selling pressure will increase and the pair will be heading to 1.3045 and 1.3000. If the bulls are able to defend 1.3200-1.3160 area, it is possible to see the pair moving towards 1.3220 and 1.3280.



GBP/USD:

GBP/USD stopped its free fell around 1.5870 for now. The bulls failed the keep the pair above 1.60 level after the Fed said it saw no need to ease anew unless growth slows. Monetary Policy Committee will start a two-day policy meeting today. If BoE does not surprise the market, it will leave its bond purchase program at 325 billion pounds and interest rates at 0.5%. GBP/USD will remain bearish if it can’t climb and hold above 1.5925-50 zone. It is possible that the pair will rise and test this level before the bears come back to play. If it turns bullish, expect to see resistance at 1.6000. To the downside, there will be support at 1.5833, 1.5805 and 1.5708.



USD/CAD:

0.9890 support held yesterday as expected. However gains were limited yesterday. Until we see a breakout (either above parity or below 0.9890) the pair will continue to move in this tight band. For tomorrow, the resistance levels are located at 0.9966, 1.0000 and 1.0028. If the pair goes lower, expect to see support at 0.9903, 0.9885 and 0.9864.



AUD/USD:

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady Tuesday, but hinted at future policy ease. AUD/USD fell sharply as investors expect a rate cut in May. The pair is strongly bearish when it trades below 1.0455. AUD/USD may drop to 1.0260 first (50% Fibonacci) or 1.0210 before it gains some strength. Any bounces should be capped at 1.0350-70 today.

At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade