Calculating binary bet odds in forex

daya1

Newbie
Messages
2
Likes
0
The bet is on rise/fall of a forex index. How would a bookmaker decide the odds for these two events.

I can understand that the price of the options can be determined using Black Sholes formula but I think the odds for rise/fall should be complimentary to each other but that isn't the case.

Any pointers are much appreciated.
 
A bookie calculates volatility and pricing for binaries as follows:

1.Recent volatility of underlying instrument.
2.Any news event before expiry that will effect volatility.
3.Customer order flow/bias, especially the orders of consistently profitable punters!
4.Overounding the odds (adding in a very large bid/ask spread)
 
Last edited:
A bookie calculates volatility and pricing for binaries as follows:

1.Recent volatility of underlying instrument.
2.Any news event before expiry that will effect volatility.
3.Customer order flow/bias, especially the orders of consistently profitable punters!
4.Overounding the odds (adding in a very large bid/ask spread)

Thank you for the response. Could you point me to any resources with information on the above. I have googled a lot on this topic but didn't find much information on a bookie's analysis.
 
Thank you for the response. Could you point me to any resources with information on the above. I have googled a lot on this topic but didn't find much information on a bookie's analysis.

I would advise you of going the route of setting up your own punting shop to really learn the details about the odds just so that you can ask the questions you need. Most places will actually advise people not to setup this kinda of "brokerage" but to actually go the route of MT4 because there is more money to make off your clients (by holding back some of the risk).

With using binary options the average person can see WHY they would lose very easily by looking at once simple thing:

If you lose, then you lose all the money you bet. If you win, then you get to keep a certain percentage and in most cases its less then 80%. So given this probability of a backwards risk vs reward, its very hard for people to make a profit.

But from a brokers point of view, all they want to do is "balance" the risk. So the real question would then become "How man people are betting the euro will be short in an hour".

You gotta remember who your clients are as well. People who are punting do not have 10K accounts, your average client will probably be punting with less then 500 bucks. So even if you were the brokerage to start one of these up, you could do so with 25K but getting clients are a little harder because the odds are so fixed against you.

Hopefully this helps, if you wish to setup a binary options brokerage I can give you some names. Its basically like setting up a casino and will all depend on your marketing strategy.
 
Top