The 3 Duck's Trading System

This is a discussion on The 3 Duck's Trading System within the Forex forums, part of the Markets category; Originally Posted by shadowninja Yes, I know what you mean but I've done similar things in the past, taking a ...

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Old Oct 4, 2007, 7:11pm   #136
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Originally Posted by shadowninja View Post
Yes, I know what you mean but I've done similar things in the past, taking a strategy for my own and changing it to the point where it just isn't as profitable (read: lost money while the author continued to earn money).
Sure, sensible attitude to adopt

I think I may have slightly de-railed the train, & for that I apologize.

This is a pretty neat thread & on reflection, ought to remain honest to the original guidelines for exactly the reasons you've highlighted.

Sorry for steering the content off course folks.

Keep the faith
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Old Oct 4, 2007, 7:24pm   #137
 
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Sure, sensible attitude to adopt

I think I may have slightly de-railed the train, & for that I apologize.

This is a pretty neat thread & on reflection, ought to remain honest to the original guidelines for exactly the reasons you've highlighted.

Sorry for steering the content off course folks.

Keep the faith
LOL ampro, you almost got me to a break a rule on the system.


Carpe Diem
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Old Oct 4, 2007, 8:23pm   #138
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which pair??

Hi everyone,

this is a great thread and as a newbie to currencies I am grateful for the advice given so far and the useful posts on it

My previous request for help on MM probably shows that Im concentrating on managing a trade rather than being obsessed with entry signals-identifying and trading with the trend seems to be the best way of increasing the chances of it going in the right direction, the rest is trying to maximise gain/minimise loss- its the ratio of the one to the other that seems to be the difference between overall profit/loss

One practical point occurs to me and its this- whenever a chart appears here showing how the trade could have mapped out-ie after the event-I see it- very occasionally I have been there and got in, but more often I have been tracking another pair and missed it completely!

I tend to look through a selection of pairs first thing in the morning and identify a couple that are looking like probable trades-

To make this easier I have the timefrmaes set up on a 1 hour chart-to get an overall view of whats happening

This tends to be from a selction of about 10 possibles that I have set up in metatrader(which I have recently downloaded)

During the day I tend to track my "shortlist" and leave the rest which means I tend to miss moves on pairs Ive been patiently ignoring.

How do the rest of you track potentials- do you scan a long list throughout the day? do you only trade a very small number of pairs? cable only?

I appreciate that this has a lot to do with available time and styles but wondered how the rest of you were applying the system?

Any advice, again gratefully received

kind regards,

mark
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Old Oct 4, 2007, 9:01pm   #139
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Mark, the FX markets are largely driven by which part of the planet is 'up'.

JPY 00:00-09:00
EUR/GBP 08:00-17:00
USD 13:00-22:00
(all times GMT)

Of course, there is no cut-off, and there's trading going on across all the majors (and most crosses) 24 hours, but you probably want to hit your markets when they're 'busy'

If you bear in mind nearly 90% of all FX trades involve the USD followed by EUR, you've already cut down those you really need to keep an eye on in any one of those timeslots.

Also generally the middle of the week is the busiest time, Monday’s can be good, but a distinct tailing off toward the end of the week.

All of this should be taken with the overall caveat of ‘In General’.
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Old Oct 5, 2007, 1:30am   #140
 
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I don't see the pips.

I can give you 10 reasons this Strat. will never make money.


DT
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Old Oct 5, 2007, 1:45am   #141
 
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Hmmm. An interesting claim. How about the first five for us peasants?
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Old Oct 5, 2007, 1:46am   #142
 
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Please take no offence.

This Strat. will never work because it is constantly positoning you in a trade that will never be duplicated exactly the same. < Which is needed in order to gauge probability.

Even if one was able to quantify all accociated Global variables, one would need to be able to take the exact trade at the same exact price.

This isn't even taking into account that MA price is meaningless, The whole reason price moves is because there is a discrepancy in price and reality.

That's the Paradox, price does not represent Actual Value.

Your watching MAs that don't represent price, if it did one could just 'do what it is doing' and make money.

IE, go long if it's moving up, short if it's going down.


Trading currency is about 100x harder than this Strat. represents.


DT
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Old Oct 5, 2007, 2:00am   #143
 
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Not only that, but at best this strat. would barley eek out a gain longterm, even if you had it automated, but if it was automated Others would start using it and the strat. would become flat..

.. so this leaves one having to trade it manually, which in it's self will physically wear one out.


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Old Oct 5, 2007, 3:17am   #144
 
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No offence taken.

It's good that you don't believe that it will work. The moment a strategy is found that everyone believes will work is the moment it's likely to start its slide into oblivion.

The other thing required for a strategy to slide into oblivion is that people find it easy to implement so some believable strategies continue to perform because people don't seem to be able to follow them, which may have a little to do with the high trader failure stats so often quoted.

On a related matter, Captain Currency often points out that he applies his price action knowledge to the resulting signals. I know this will trouble many newer traders and I think the patterns discussed in this thread might help them.

Cheers
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Old Oct 5, 2007, 6:06am   #145
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Originally Posted by Depth Trade View Post

.. so this leaves one having to trade it manually, which in it's self will physically wear one out.
Well, blow me down! You mean these guy’s are gonna have to actually do some work with this gig?

Dang...can’t have that, trading isn’t supposed to involve using one’s brain is it?

Discretionary, manual price action observation is a non-starter.

Close this thread immediately Captain, & sprint to the nearest mechanical shop.



No offense meant.
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Old Oct 5, 2007, 7:58am   #146
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Originally Posted by Depth Trade View Post
This Strat. will never work because it is constantly positoning you in a trade that will never be duplicated exactly the same. < Which is needed in order to gauge probability.
I disagree. The rules stated position you exactly the same each time – if you follow it to the letter. Not that I’m suggesting anyone does (not my call), but if they choose to, it’s the same setup each and every time. Don’t forget, MA-X is one of the few time-tested methods that have proven to provide profits over the long term. And this is an MA-X system. It’s a 60 SMA with 1 SMA (the price). Your probability of any system is a function of your historic results.

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Even if one was able to quantify all accociated Global variables, one would need to be able to take the exact trade at the same exact price.
Either I’m missing something or you are. All the ‘global variables’ are already in the price. I have no idea what you mean by ‘exact trade at the same exact price’.

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Originally Posted by Depth Trade View Post
This isn't even taking into account that MA price is meaningless, The whole reason price moves is because there is a discrepancy in price and reality.
’Discrepancy in price reality’ – whoa! Prices move because there is a difference in opinion between traders on current ‘value’ and therefore, future prospects. The reality is created by these opinions. There’s nothing more real than the current Bid & Offer.

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That's the Paradox, price does not represent Actual Value.
It’s not a paradox. It’s a dichotomy. Price/Value. Price is Real; Value is Imaginary. E.G. Selling Cable at 2.0375 is real. You’ve bought at that level. Your valuation of it being worth much less later is imaginary – you’ll find out just how imaginary it is if it isn’t worth less later.

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Originally Posted by Depth Trade View Post
Your watching MAs that don't represent price, if it did one could just 'do what it is doing' and make money.

IE, go long if it's moving up, short if it's going down.
I’m not sure you’re right there. In that most longer term systems effectively embrace, in essence, precisely that approach.


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Trading currency is about 100x harder than this Strat. represents.
I guess you could make it harder if you wanted, but why would you try? This is just one strat from one person.
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Old Oct 5, 2007, 11:01am   #147
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Super post, Tony, I totally agree.

As I've said earlier, I absolutely believe that trading is simple, although it's not easy because the rules can be pretty hard to follow at times.

The only ways I can think of how to make money trading are the following:

1: You can do a fundamental Jim Rogers type of approach where you say that oil is a limited commodity with strongly growing consumption so demand & supply 101 say that prices are going up.

A great strategy, but you need a clever head and lots of patience and lots of stamina watching price doing it's irrational thing until it catches up with logic.

2: You can do what I do or what the Captain here is doing, keep it simple and robust, believing that the only thing you can know about markets is that when prices go up they go up and when they go down they go down, and try and cash in on that by methods like buying breakouts confirmed by various time frames & moving averages etc...

You'll have lots more losers than winners like this, but the upside is that you only need to be right one third of the time if on average your winners are 3 times the size of your losers and you'll still be net profitable and way ahead of the competition !

Not bad, eh ?

3: Reversion to mean trading, that is you buy support and sell resistance in whatever technical way you define that, eg pure price or bollinger bands etc. Here you'll probably have more winners than losers by having larger stop losses than winners.

Good for people who have a psychological need to be right. Not putting that down at all, just saying that you need to find out what works for you !

4: Spread trading, that is going long one instrument while shorting a related one, because you believe that they've drifted too far apart from what they usually do.

Probably needs lots of computing power to catch up or, again, a clever mind.

5: Buying lots of computing power and even more quants who find out what markets do most of the time when the Japanese emperor hiccups...

Can't think of any other way to make money trading, but, to be honest, none of that is real mega rocket science, is it ?

The biggest breakthrough for me was grasping that no analysis helps when one big order enters the market pushing price away from what you had deduced should be happening next, and when I understood and learned to act on the idea that being wrong most of the time is fine, provided you follow that old cliche, limiting your losses while letting your winners run !
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Old Oct 5, 2007, 11:16am   #148
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"Can't think of any other way to make money trading"....you have four out of 7 whatevers....you want a fifth cheaper than ask...you signpost the 4 for sale and knock the ask down ..buy the ask and take the signpost off the 4 you already hold... I did this with properties once...but it applies to virtually anything..think about FX and see if you can see where it is being applied collectively ....buying and selling is all about people and their behaviour...winning strategies are based upon that ,even when the people applying them don't actually understand the behaviour underneath.
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Old Oct 5, 2007, 11:32am   #149
 
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Originally Posted by Depth Trade View Post
I don't see the pips.

I can give you 10 reasons this Strat. will never make money.


DT
Hello Depth,

I use this "system" or guide as I prefere to call it, in addition to my own market knowledge. I'm fairly handy with MM - bet size, RvR etc etc. I've been trading the Fx market for a little while now and even longer on the ISEQ (Irish stock market)
So what I trying to say in a PC way is "I have a good idea of what I'm doing"

Dont take this the wrong way, you comments are welcomed & its hard to offend me.
Can you give me 10 reasons why "I" will never make money using the above strat with the extra bits I've added on in the end?

Your comment is your opinion, I dont personally share it.
For someone to make a broad comment like that without seeing what I do and how I do it - just does'nt cut the mustard with me.

Your reply will probably be " I was talking about the system, not you"
I have always said from day 1 - make the system your own ie stops, targets, pairs, mm etc and use it in addition to your own market knowledge.

For someone to take a "system" like this and try to automate it would be daft IMO
Why give away that big advantage or edge I have ie my mind/brain.

As always these are just my opinions, thanks to Depth for posting, now I'm really fired up for NFP!

Kind Regards,
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Old Oct 5, 2007, 11:36am   #150
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"you have four out of 7 whatevers....you want a fifth cheaper than ask...you signpost the 4 for sale and knock the ask down ..buy the ask and take the signpost off the 4 you already hold... I did this with properties once...but it applies to virtually anything..
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