The american dollar is going down big time over the next few months, I reckon about another 20-27% decrease from current value. This is so gurannteed, id put my mortgage on it if i wasn't a pennyless student, massive national dedt, large borrowng requirement, Iraq, interest rates, terrorism, kerry being elected is all meaning that the dollar is going to hit rock bottom. Would probably short against the Pound, but the Aussy dollar is looking good so I'll look into that further. Just don't know how to make money from this situation, anyone any ideas? spreadbetting....maybe...but don't think i'd get credit? direct broker....cant see them giving me credit either....help me please! Anyone wanna lend me £35,000 or so?
Help...I can see the future...but have no cash to trade with....waht can i do?
sak07 said:
Not with your assessment of the political/economic situation in the US, no. I agree with your broad conclusions, I must say, though 20-27% could easily be an exaggerated view. But Kerry isn't getting elected, and it would quite possibly be good for the dollar, not bad, if he did anyway. On only a slightly more serious note, if you really think it's all over for the dollar on quite such a scale, your best way to clean up could easily be a small series of fixed-odds bets, or digital options, at BetOnMarkets.com. You'd certainly get a very good return if you were right, and could limit your exposure and control the risk to some extent by careful bet-placement. But beware: betting with borrowed money almost _always_ loses!
TWI
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I know your frustration. I remember as a student going to see my bank manager and asking for a loan to buy BT shares as they were, at that time, being privatised. He told me to take a hike. ******. What I did instead was get a weekend and holiday job which lead to other more lucrative opportunities and ended up scooping me a few grand. I did not actually get around to buying the BT shares but had a great couple of months travelling.
Are there not sb companies who allow really small bets for a few pence. If you are right you should be able to build one of those accounts up to a reasonable amount. Problem is that although you are right, I have been on the dollar bear thing for the last 2 years, you may be too late for the really easy money.
Are there not sb companies who allow really small bets for a few pence. If you are right you should be able to build one of those accounts up to a reasonable amount. Problem is that although you are right, I have been on the dollar bear thing for the last 2 years, you may be too late for the really easy money.
Don´t agree with You,
In order to finance a deficit as large as the US have you have to attract money (Japanese & Chinese money). To do that you have to rise interest rates. The money will leave the stock market and go into gov. bonds. As long as the dollar remain weak the US indexes will remain where they are now but if the opposite occurs you should short the US stock market, not the US-dollar.
In order to finance a deficit as large as the US have you have to attract money (Japanese & Chinese money). To do that you have to rise interest rates. The money will leave the stock market and go into gov. bonds. As long as the dollar remain weak the US indexes will remain where they are now but if the opposite occurs you should short the US stock market, not the US-dollar.
Didn't interest rate hit rock bottom just months ago? The Feds are slowly hiking the interest rates if I'm not wrong. That might mean a stronger dollar, no?
But even after all the analysis we have done to get a 100% perfectly correct prediction, USA might go to war with North Korea or something and send the USD crashing.
But even after all the analysis we have done to get a 100% perfectly correct prediction, USA might go to war with North Korea or something and send the USD crashing.
TWI
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Yields are still declining. Bonds are being bought relentlessly as there are buyers in this market who only continue to buy and do not short, namely the exporters (China and Japan). Slowly the shorts are being squeezed out. There will be a turning point at some futue date as the risk premiums are too low but no idea what the catalyst will be. It may be the election, who knows. I think the bond bears are certainly losing stomach for the fight so it has got to be getting closer to the end. I am certainly very surprised by how far this has gone already.
If there is to be another war it will be with Iran, not N.Korea. Bush and Sharon both want it and have been rattling the sabres for months. It will make Iraq look like a play pen should that one start. Make no mistake, odds on they have russina supplied WMD's and an effective way to deliver them as they recently demonstrated.
If there is to be another war it will be with Iran, not N.Korea. Bush and Sharon both want it and have been rattling the sabres for months. It will make Iraq look like a play pen should that one start. Make no mistake, odds on they have russina supplied WMD's and an effective way to deliver them as they recently demonstrated.
