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Old Mar 29, 2017, 2:47pm   #1
 
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Key To Markets - Discussions

Hello everyone!

I am the representative of Key To Markets UK.

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Old Mar 29, 2017, 4:04pm   #2
 
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Are you regulated by the FSA?
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Old Mar 29, 2017, 4:14pm   #3
 
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Are you regulated by the FSA?
Hi, the FSA (Financial Services Authority) has been replaced in the UK from April 2013 by the FCA (Financial Conduct Authority).

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Old Apr 11, 2017, 1:34pm   #4
 
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On our blog we regularly publish fundamental and technical analysis regarding the main Forex paris, commodities and indexes we offer.

EURUSD-Net short positioning in EUR rose

EURUSD snaps the two weeks downtrend at lower Bollinger band earlier fails at breakout level. Following a weak NFP data (Apr07) the U.S dollar rejected at three-month descending daily trendline on Monday session. French election campaign officially started on Monday (April 10) may expect some risk during this week. As Marine Le Pen’s low probability of victory, we expect the risk will be on the higher side this short week.

FX positioning
Nomura (April 07)-Leveraged funds’ net short positioning in EUR rose after declining for three consecutive weeks (to 40% vs. 36% last week). Max net shorts in the last year stands at 75%, which was last seen in August 2016. Asset managers’ net long positioning in EUR fell to 26% vs. 28% last week.

Review
• February 2017, French manufacturing output continued to decrease for the third month in a row -1.6%
• Germany foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 21.0 billion euros in February 2017
• Germany production in industry was up by 2.2% in February 2017
• Eurozone unemployment rate decreased in February to 9.5% from 9.6%.
• Final services PMI revised downward from 56.5 to 56.0
• Manufacturing PMI at 56.2 at near six-year high as growth accelerates in Germany, Italy and France

Technical analysis:
EURUSD flat on Monday session snaps the two-week downtrend manages to hold the lower daily Bollinger band.
The price breakdown the three-month ascending trendline extend the decline of 50% retracement of the 1.0339-1.0905 rally.
The daily BB finds at 1.0570 and 61.8 fib finds at 1.0550 below these 1.0490 Feb 22nd low exists. We expect the price likely to find support between 1.0570 and 1.0500 expect a retracement to 1.0650 and 1.07.
Alternatively, further downfall expected below 1.0490 to 1.0450, 1.04 and 1.0360 levels. Potential resistance seems between 1.0680 and 1.0720 levels.

eurusddaily.png
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Old Apr 18, 2017, 11:50am   #5
 
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EUR/USD - Range trading expected ahead of the French election


Risk sentiment remains the key theme for the week ahead besides, French election looming.

Fundamental Analysis

Past Events review:
  • In March 2017, French consumer prices rose by 0.6% over a month and by 1.1% year on year
  • The Germany CPI rose by 0.2% in March 2017, on y/y basis 1.6% higher in March 2017.
  • German Economic Sentiment Continues to Improve. The indicator now stands at 19.5 points, thereby reaching its highest level since August 2015.


Upcoming Key Events:

Wed April 19:
  • Final EA CPI y/y forecast 1.50% vs 1.50%
  • EA Trade Balance forecast 18.6B vs 15.7B
  • Scheduled speech of ECB Executive Board Members’s Coeure and Praet
    During this forum a view on monetary policy may be presented.
    The market will be looking for further clarification on the ECB’s appetite for policy normalisation following recent dovish rhetoric that has weighed on the EUR.

Fri, April 21:
  • PMI readings.

ISTITUTIONAL FORECASTS:
Barclays (April 16):
A moderation in euro area flash PMIs is likely to be the focus in an otherwise quiet week and should weigh on the EUR. We forecast the composite PMI drop to 56.1 in April from 56.4 (consensus: 56.5), driven by some consolidation in French confidence. Final euro area March inflation (Wednesday) is widely expected to be confirmed at 1.5% y/y for the headline measure and 0.7% y/y for core.
We would expect the USD to remain under pressure this week versus the JPY, EUR, CHF and GBP.

CITI FX:
French election looming, so investors may be reluctant to take positions. This is likely to see range trade in EUR in the days ahead, with some scope for downward drift.

Technical Analysis


As we can see in the 4 hours chart, the Eur/Usd extended the decline around nearly the 61.8% retracement of the 1.0339-1.0905 rally.
The near-term trading range remains between 1.07-1.0550 levels.
The price failed to handle 50Dsma twice, but remains above 20Wsma which is next support available.
Watching at the daily chart we can assume that the next potential supports are at 1.0599 and 1.0550 with further downfall expected to 1.0500/1.0490 and 1.0450 levels. Alternatively, potential resistance seems between 1.0680 and 1.0700.

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Old Apr 26, 2017, 10:22am   #6
 
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EURUSD-Market participants focus shifts to ECB policy. EURUSD breakout again



The results of the first round of French Presidential elections were very much in line with market expectations, EUR spikes. Market participant focuses on ECB meeting this week, the second round of the French election to be held in two weeks time.

Fundamental analysis


Review of the previous data:
• The Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 112.9 points in April from 112.4
• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 56.8 vs 56.1 forecast
• Eurozone Services PMI 56.2 vs 56.0 forecast
• Germany Manufacturing PMI 58.2 vs 58.1 forecast
• Germany Services PMI 54.7 vs 55.5 forecast
• French Manufacturing PMI 55.1 vs 53.2 forecast
• French Services PMI 57.7 vs 57.2 forecast
• EA annual CPI y/y was 1.5% in March 2017, down from 2.0% in February
• Euro area international trade in goods surplus €17.8 bn in February 2017, €1.7 bn surplus for EU.

Upcoming data:
Thursday, April 27
• Germany prelim CPI m/m basis forecast -0.1% vs 0.2%
Unicredit: The headline inflation rate in April likely accelerated by 0.3pp to 1.9% yoy.

• ECB meeting:
Thursday’s ECB policy meeting is unlikely to be eventful as ECB to keep policy accommodative.
Unicredit- We do not expect new policy announcements, nor do we anticipate any material change of rhetoric.
Unicredit: we think that Thursday’s meeting will be used by the ECB as a “bridge” to the June rendezvous, which promises to be important”.
Deutsche Bank: We do not expect any significant changes at the ECB meeting.
According to Abhishek Singhania at Deutsche Bank, “We do not expect any significant changes at the ECB meeting as the ECB is still waiting for credible evidence for improvement in underlying inflation and is unlikely to want to signal any change in policy stance as yet”.
ABN AMRO: Sticking to its stance for now
According to Nick Kounis and Aline Schuiling at ABN AMRO, We do not expect the ECB to make major changes to its communication at its meeting this week. The first step in the exit process will come with a change in communication in our view in June of this year. The forward guidance will likely become more neutral, dropping the explicit possibility of cutting rates or stepping up QE. We then expect the ECB to set out its plan for tapering in September of this year.
Nomura: We are in line with the consensus in expecting all the ECB’s key policy parameters
to be left unchanged at this week’s ECB meeting on 27 April. No change in the forward guidance may be a small disappointment for the market.
ING: Assuming that Macron does secure the presidency, speculation will increase of a significant tapering announcement to be made at the June 8th ECB meeting.

INSTITUTIONAL FX POSITIONING

Nomura-EUR: Leveraged funds’ net short positioning in EUR rose for the third week (to 48% vs.
45% last week). Max net shorts in the past year reached 75%, which was last seen in August 2016. Asset managers’ net long positioning in EUR remained stable at around 21%.

Technical Analysis


The first round of French election sends the EURUSD to a five-month high.
EURUSD marches to the key breakout zone remains between 1.0950 its top of the rising channel and 1.1000 its 100Wema.
The price is trading above 50Wsma for the first time since November 2016 pause the rally at 20Msma seems at 1.0950.
The price gave an upside breakout through inverse H&S pattern on April 18th again breakout given yesterday (April 25)
The daily RSI approaching overbought zone, indicating round number 1.10 likely to act resistance over near term.
If this week closes above 1.1020/1.1030, rally might extend to 1.1100/1.1120 100Wema, 1.1200/1.1240 Oct 2016 high,1.1300 and 1.1400/1.1430 100.00 weekly fe over the medium term.
Symmetrical triangle breakout gave on the weekly chart, aiming at 1.1300 levels.
Support finds at 1.0900, 1.0820/1.0800 and 1.0700/1.0670
The French election risk was minimized notably, euro remains a buyer on a dip

UBS: forecast 1.15 and 1.20 into end 2017/early 2018
Societe Generale:The bottom in EUR/USD is behind us and the trend has turned.
Nomura: The possible dip after the ECB meeting and inflation data later this week may provide a good opportunity to buy EUR.

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Old Apr 27, 2017, 2:42pm   #7
 
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Old Apr 28, 2017, 11:23am   #8
 
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