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Old Jul 7, 2017, 11:05am   #57
 
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June NFP preview. Technical view of DXY and EURUSD.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread DXY resumes the down trend fails at 61.8% fib (91.90-103.80 rally).
EUR was the winner on Thursday session following ECB minutes.
A soft ADP data pointing the same pace in NFP as well but Nomura models forecast an another strong month of payroll employment
Market participants focus will be on whether wages are rising,


Upcoming events:

US non-farm data tonight is the risk event for FX markets. The June nonfarm payroll report is the first of three jobs reported before the FOMC Monetary Policy meeting.



Standard Chartered: Expect a strong employment report and forecast non-farm payrolls (NFP) at 210,000 (well above the consensus of 183,000).

UniCredit forecast “Nonfarm payrolls likely rose a more solid 170,000 in June and the jobless rate likely stabilized at 4.3%”.

According to Barclays, “We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 185k in June. We look for average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% m/m (2.6% y/y), a faster increase than in the previous month”.

JP Morgan Chase: US non-farm employment in June is expected to increase by 150,000, the average hourly wage rose 0.3%, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%.

Nomura: Our models and incoming data uniformly point to another strong month of payroll employment gains. June likely saw another strong month of jobs growth. We expect a 165k increase in nonfarm payroll employment, similar to the average pace of the past six months (161k) and above the sustainable pace.The unemployment rate in June to remain unchanged from May’s at 4.3%.

TECHNICAL VEIW


DXY resumes the down trend fails at the 61.8% fib (91.90-103.80 rally). The daily RSI and Oscillator indicates it has a limited downside. Especially against CHF (lower yield currency) buying on a dip favors the risk reward ratio. We have been recommending buying USDCHF and remains to the same strategy. A healthy payroll data will add extra strength to our bullish USDCHF view.

Before retrace to 95.80 in Thursday session, it has spotted with a bearish H&S pattern and the same can visible on USDCHF (already broken down)and USDJPY (not yet) charts as well (H1).

Support finds at 95.70/95.50, 95.20 and 94.90.

Click the image to open in full size.

To escape further correction, bulls need to propel above 96.50 it’s 61.8% (91.90-103.80 rally) to aim at 97.90 it’s 50.0%.

Click the image to open in full size.

EURUSD TECHNICAL VIEW

The euro was the star on Thursday session as ECB minutes show officials discussed dropping easing bias at its June meeting. The euro rallied against major currencies establishing higher low patterns.

Comments from ECB officials reported by Westpac: Villeroy said that the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy is “not eternal”; Nowotny said QE is not a permanent policy tool; Weidmann said the recovery opens the door to normalisation; and Praet said confidence in the recovery is on a stronger footing.

According to Nomura analysts, “We believe the ECB is still on course to announce in September that a QE tapering campaign will commence next January”.

Yesterday’s move fails to erase the last week’s double top at 1.1445 above this parallel resistance seems at 1.1465. Additional resistance seems at 1.1500 and 1.1535 are next in line. Support finds at 1.1390, 1.1350 and 1.1310/1.1300. Settles below 1.1300 confirms the distribution pattern and the selling pressure accelerates.

This week’s trading range remains between 1.1535 and 1.1300. We can expect a near-term top around 1.1535 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.



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Old Jul 10, 2017, 2:16am   #58
 
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Brent: Support zone remains between 46.50 and 46.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Brent oil fell more than 3% on Friday session, retrace more than 61.8% (44.20-49.70 rally). The price dropped on concerns about high US output.

U.S drillers added seven oil rigs brings the total up to 763, Baker Hughes announced on Friday.

Today, on Asia early trade Bren trading with 0.45% gains, high 47$.

According to Interfax, OPEC Secretary-General Balkin said that it would be premature to discuss the possibility of continued production cuts at a regular meeting of the Commission on July 24, reported by Wallstreet cn.

TECHNICAL VIEW


Before retrace to more than 61.8%(44.20-49.70 rally) it has rejected twice at 50DMA. The price completed the ABC pattern target completed, near term support zone remains between 46.50 and 46.00 (rounded). The earlier minor breakout level finds at 45.70 below this 45.30 and 44.90 are next in line.

Immediate resistance seems between 47-47.30 above this 47.60 and 48 exists.

A bullish reversal expected if settles above 47.30 aims for 47.60, 48 and 49/49.20 levels.

Until the price holds the 61.8% we expect a consolidation phase for the next 1-2 days followed by a breakout.

The trading pattern edge down to 46.30/46 and 47.50 earlier was 49-46.50. A break down below 46 another leg down to 45.50 and 44.95.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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Old Jul 11, 2017, 2:00am   #59
 
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EURUSD: Final push looms. Selling interest available at June high’s.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Before retrace to 1.1380 it ran into resistance at 1.1450 failed again last week. Selling interest available at June high’s.

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS

Following the hawkish interpretation of President Draghi’s speech markets have brought forward the first ECB’s rate hike to 2018 September.
The ECB was likely to start winding back its bond-buying program as early as September.
Recent Draghi’s speech raised bets about a more hawkish ECB.

Review of the previous week data:
• Spanish manufacturing sector rose to 54.7, signals further solid expansion at end of Q2.
• Italy Manufacturing PMI improves slightly to 55.2, sees a strong finish to 2Q.
• French Manufacturing sector posted 54.8 in June to signal a further improvement.
• Germany Manufacturing PMI rose for the sixth time in seven months in June, posting 59.6, up from 59.5 in May.
• Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 57.4 in June, hits a 74-month.
• EZ Unemployment Rate 9.3% vs 9.3%
• Industrial producer prices down by 0.4% in both EA and EU.
• Germany Services PMI 54.0 vs 53.7.
• EZ Services PMI 55.4 vs 54.7.
• EZ Retail Sales 0.4% vs 0.1%
• Germany Industrial Production 1.2% vs 0.7%.
• Germany trade balance recorded a surplus of 20.3 billion euros in May 2017.

Upcoming data:
• Tue, July 11
Italy IP forecast 0.5% vs -0.4%.
UniCredit: We expect industrial production to have increased by 0.5% mom in May
• Wed, July 12
EZ IP forecast 1.0% vs 0.5%
• Thu, July 13
German final CPI forecast 0.2% vs 0.2%
French final CPI forecast 0.0% vs 0.0%
• Fri, July 14
EZ Trade balance forecast 20.3B vs 19.6B

TECHNICAL VIEW

EURUSD ran into resistance at 1.1450 failed again last week, above this 1.1465 and 1.1500 are next in line.
The near term trading range remains in a narrow range between 1.1450 and 1.1310 rounded to 1.13. It has a potential support finds at between 1.1310 and 1.1270 fails to hold 1.12/1.1170 is highly possible. A final push expected if propel above 1.1465 aims for 1.15 and 1.1530 levels.
For an intraday purpose, Supports find at 1.1380/1.1370 below this 1.1330 and 1.300 exists. Settles below 1.1300 confirms the distribution pattern and the selling pressure accelerates.

Click the image to open in full size.

This week’s price actions cast on Yellen’s testimonies to both chambers of Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.


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Old Jul 12, 2017, 2:57am   #60
 
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Take profits on AUDNZD, EURNZD and NZDUSD trades.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread NZD was beaten down across the board on Tuesday session, especially against ANZ, EUR and USD fell a percent.

AUDNZD

We repeatedly recommended “buying AUDNZD” now it’s time to take profits. The cross gave a large trading range breakout on Tuesday, currently trading at 1.0580 on Wednesday Asia session. It has spotted with an inverted H&S pattern and completed the pattern target 1.0580.

Near-term resistance zone seems at 1.0590/1.0615 above this 1.0640 and 1.0680 exists. Supports finds at 1.0550/1.0530, 1.0480 and 1.0400.

If settles above 1.615, it has a potential to extend the run up to 1.0670/1.0680 and 1.0730.

Click the image to open in full size.

NZDUSD

Settles far below 20DMA.
Retrace beyond 23.6% (0.6817-0.7345 rally).
ABC pattern target finished.
The cross fell nearly a percent and settles far below 20DMA for the first time after mid-May.

Ever since we raised a cautious view at 0.7350 the cross has traded down in line with our bearish view. It has spotted with a double top and lower lows patterns.

Finally, a breakdown finished the ABC pattern journey. The cross made a low at 0.72, manages to hold the 200MA on the hourly chart. It has a support zone available between 0.7185 and 0.7170. Resistance seems at 0.7245/0.7255 above this 0.7300 exists.

A large trading range breakdown is highly likely if 0.7170 taken off. In this case, 0.7120/0.7100 and 0.7050 expected.

For the medium term perspective, 0.7080 and 0.7050 are the potential supports available (earlier breakout zone).

Click the image to open in full size.

EURNZD

The eight-day consolidation phase finally ends with a breakout on Tuesday, settles far above 50DMA. It has rebound nearly 62% of the earlier fall (1.6235-1.5235).

Initially, we recommended a buying trade at 1.54 again recommended at 1.5650 and 1.5750 for 1.5950/1.6000 in the near term. As per the ABC pattern, it has a potential to fly up to 1.60/1.6010. The cross made a high at 1.5895 and we recommend to take profit.

The RSI and oscillator on the hourly (H1 and H4) charts appear extremely overbought.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

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Old Jul 13, 2017, 4:47am   #61
 
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USDCAD: Support zone remains between 1.2680 and 1.2650.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The Bank of Canada raises the interest rates for the first time since 2010. Future rate hikes will remain data dependent.

The Canadian dollar is the star of the Wednesday session rose 2% against the USD. The Bank of Canada raises rates to 0.75% by 25bps. It has joined with the Fed in starting monetary policy normalization.

According to BoC, Recent data have bolstered the Bank’s confidence in its outlook for above-potential growth and the absorption of excess capacity in the economy. Canada’s economy has been robust, fuelled by household spending.

According to RBC Research, “The bank sees growth broadening across industries and regions and thinks the energy sector’s adjustment to lower oil prices is largely complete”.

Key notes:

The Bank of Canada is raising its target for the overnight rate to 3/4 per cent.
Future adjustments to the target for the overnight rate will be guided by incoming data as they inform the Bank’s inflation outlook.
The Bank estimates real GDP growth will moderate further over the projection horizon, from 2.8 per cent in 2017 to 2.0 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019.
The bank acknowledges recent softness in inflation but judges this to be temporary.
The Bank expects inflation to return to close to 2 per cent by the middle of 2018.

FX outlook:

Recent positive economic data and BoC officials hawkish statements strengthens the CAD in the recent weeks. This monetary policy statement likely to extend the CAD support. But in the near term we forecast a limited downside risk to USDCAD.

Click the image to open in full size.

Cad outperforms 2% against the USD following hawkish BoC monetary policy statement. It has been digging for three consecutive months, settles far below 20MA (monthly).

The recent price action setup multiple tops at 1.2940 and 1.30/1.3015. On the four-hour chart, the price completed the 161.8% (see the below chart). It has a parallel supports available at 1.2684 and 1.2650 (weekly chart).

Click the image to open in full size.

Further downfall expected if 1.2650 taken out, aims to 1.2550, 1.2500 and 1.2460.

In the medium term perspective potential supports available at 1.2490 and 1.2360 it’s 200MA (weekly)

Trade possibilities :
  • Until the price holds 1.2650, we forecast a rebound in the near term.
  • For bears, sell on a rise around 1.30 is the better opportunity.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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Old Jul 24, 2017, 12:14am   #62
 
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AUDUSD: Wouldn’t be surprised if tested the support.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread AUDUSD rallies to 2-year high’s on RBA minutes, facing potential resistance at higher time frames. It has made a high at 0.7988 rejected at 200MA(weekly) seems between 0.7990 and 0.8010. On the monthly chart, 200MA seems at 0.7980.

Early July, we forecast a “Wait for a dip to buy”at 0.76 levels, time to take profit. The near term price action appears a correction, but on the medium term basis, we remain bullish.

Click the image to open in full size.

Ahead of the CPI and RBA Gov Lowe’s Speech (Wednesday), we express a limited upside risk and a healthy correction needed.

The AUD bulls are intensely watching on CPI and Speech by Philip Lowe, Governor at the Anika Foundation Luncheon, Sydney 26 July 2017, 1.05 pm AEST.

Data preview:

A downside CPI or cool down tightening expectations by Lowe might pressure the AUD in the near term.

Besides, the US dollar traders are focus on July FOMC.

Wed 26 July 2017:

CPI:

The recent A$ appreciation is likely to add hefty downside pressure on prices.

Nomura: We forecast a moderate 0.5% q-o-q rise in headline CPI inflation in Q2, based on mixed partial data so far.

Barclays: We forecast Q2 CPI inflation to grow at 0.3% q/q, below consensus.

CITI FX: We forecast a 0.4% rise in Q2 headline CPI and 0.5% in underlying inflation.


Forecast: Wouldn’t be surprised if 0.7830 tested, below this 0.7750 and 0.7700 are next in line.

Resistances are seems between 0.7970 and 0.8010 above this 0.8070 exists.

Click the image to open in full size.



It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.



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Old Jul 25, 2017, 1:21am   #63
 
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EURUSD: The rapid move finally approaches the potential hurdle zone.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • The euro climbs to 23-month high as the unloved USD struggles.
  • This mid week likely to change the FX trends.
  • We expect a limited impact on markets as no press conference at this meeting.

No change in Fed interest rate policy is expected in July meeting. Market participants focus on the timing of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction.

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


ECB has left its forward guidance unchanged. We expect the ECB likely to announce a reduction of its bond purchases to announce at the 07 September meeting.

Review of the previous week data:
  • Annual inflation down to 1.3% in the euro area and down to 1.4% in the EU.
  • Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment fell slightly by 1.1 points in July 2017 and now stands at 17.5 points.
  • In May 2017 the current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €30.1 billion.
  • ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged at 0.0%.
  • France Flash Manufacturing PMI increases to 55.4 (54.8 in June) 75-month high.
  • France Flash Services Activity Index falls to 55.9 (56.9 in June), 6-month low.
  • Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI at 58.3 (59.6 in June). 3-month low.
  • Flash Germany Services PMI Activity Index at 53.5 (54.0 in June). 6-month low.
  • Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 56.8 (57.4 in June). 3-month low.
  • Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index at 55.4 (55.4 in June).

Upcoming data:

Tue, July 25

German Ifo Business Climate forecast 114.9 vs 115.1

Wed, July 26

FOMC meeting: We expect a limited impact on markets as no press conference at this meeting.

Fri, July 28

Germany Prelim CPI MoM basis forecast 0.2% vs 0.2%

TECHNICAL VIEW


The EUR has rallied to a 23-month high rallied more than 10% year-to-date. The rapid move finally approaches to the potential hurdle zone.

Last week EURUSD closed out above 200WEMA, high made 1.1682. The parallel resistance seems at 1.1715 above this 1.1780/1.18 exists. The 50MA (monthly) seems at 1.1840.

This week’s pivotal seems at 1.1715(August 2015 high) and 1.1735 38.2% (1.3992-1.0340 fall). Until trades below, price action remains between 1.1735 and 1.1470 in the near term.

Supports are available at 1.1600/1.1580, 1.1490/1.1470 and 1.1300. The selling pressure remains at 1.1715/1.1735 and accelerates below 1.1580.

Alternatively, propels above 1.1735, it will elevate to 1.1780/1.18 and even 1.1840/1.1870 is highly likely.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?


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Old Jul 25, 2017, 6:30am   #64
 
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What people really need is what pairs should one invest in this week and the direction.

Keep it simple

If you really want to show off then try the S&P weekly comp and win it.
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