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Old Jun 27, 2017, 2:33am   #49
 
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EURUSD: Leveraged funds’ positioning in EUR turned short again

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The lower high formation confirms the limited upside risk in the near term.This week’s trend cast on EZ CPI data.

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS

Review of the previous week data:
PMI was the only major event we had from the EZ last week.

• Germany PPI fell by 0.2% in May 2017 vs +0.4 in Apri.
• Flash estimate of the consumer confidence indicator increased markedly in both the EA (+2.0 points to -1.3) and the EU (+1.1 points to -2.2) compared to May. French Flash Manufacturing PMI rises to 55.0 2-month high vs 53.8 in May.
• French Flash Services PMI decreased to 55.3, 5-month low vs 57.2 in May
• German Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 59.3, 2-month low vs 59.5 in May.
• German Flash Services PMI fell to 53.7, 5-month low vs 55.4 in May.
• Flash Manufacturing PMI 57.3, 74-month high vs 57.0 in May.
• Flash Services PMI 54.7,5-month low vs 56.3 in May.
• The Germany Ifo business climate index rose to 115.1 from 114.6 in May.

Upcoming data:

Wed, June 28

M3 money supply: The growth likely to ease slightly.
Uni Credit: In May, the yearly growth rate of broad money is likely to ease slightly to 4.8%

Thu, June 29
EZ Inflation: likely to decline further, far below the ECB’s medium-term target.
UniCredit: Headline inflation likely further decelerated in June, falling to 1.2% yoy from 1.4% in the wake of lower energy costs. We expect core inflation to rise 0.1pp to 1.0% yoy.
Capital Economics: Likely to reveal a further fall in the headline rate of inflation to just 1.2%.

FX Positioning: According to IMM data for the week ended 20 June, leveraged funds’ positioning
in EUR turned short again (to 13% from long of 6% last week). Asset managers’ net long positioning in EUR fell to 41% from 42% last week reported by Nomura.

TECHNICAL VIEW

We maintain our sideways outlook in the near term and retain the medium term bullish forecast.
Since a month, the price action remains between 1.11 and 1.13, facing strong resistance at 20DMA on a closing basis.
The daily RSI indicating a lower but oscillator has turned bullish, further consolidation may be necessary.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the near term, potential support finds between 1.1120/1.11 and 1.1070. Below this selling pressure accelerates for 1.1020/1.10. Alternatively, resistance seems at 1.1170, 1.1220 and 1.1300.
In additional between 1.0950 and 1.0850 offers a best buying opportunity in the medium term.
The price has already retraced 23.6% (1.0569 and 1.13) fails to handle eventually focus shifts to 38.2% 1.1020.


Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Jun 28, 2017, 2:31am   #50
 
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EUR technical overview against CHF and USD

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Comments from Draghi raised bullish bets on the Euro pushed the EURUSD to a ten-month high 1.1350 rose 1.50%.

Draghi said” All the signs now point to a strengthening and broadening recovery in the euro area. Deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones”.

In his speech, he also said, “As the economy continues to recover, a constant policy stance will become more accommodative, and the central bank can accompany the recovery by adjusting the parameters of its policy instruments”.

TECHNICAL VIEW

EURUSD gave a bullish breakout closed above 1.1300 for the second time ever since Brexit.
It made a high at 1.1350, parallel resistance seems at 1.1365 and 1.1425.
The 100.0 weekly fe seems at 1.1430 and weekly parallel resistance seems at 1.1465.
Propels above 1.1370 upturn expected for 1.14, 1.1420 and 1.1460.
Support finds at 1.1270, 1.1200 and 1.1100.
Trading range moved to 1.1460 and 1.1270 from 1.1100 and 1.1300.
RSI on the four-hour chart is overbought and the daily RSI indicating a lower high.
Fails to breach 1.1370 likely to retrace to 1.1300 and 1.1280 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

EURCHF: Trading on a verge of bullish breakout.


The cross is trading on a verge of bullish breakout through a descending triangle on the four-hour chart.
Comments from Draghi raised bullish bets on the Euro pushed higher across the board.
It has parallel resistance seems at 1.0908 it’s 50.0% (May high-1.0830 low) and 100.fe at 1.09, as of now high was 1.0895.
Since mid-May, the cross has been facing resistance at 100WEMA.
The daily Oscillator appears bullish.
Propels above 1.0915 further headroom expected for 1.0930 and 1.0950.
In the near term, resistance seems at 1.09/1.0915 and 1.0950 levels.
Alternatively, support finds at 1.0860, 1.0840 and 1.0800.
Selling the breakout is the favorable theme in the near term.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
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Old Jun 29, 2017, 3:05am   #51
 
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USDCAD: Key support zone remains between 1.30 and 1.2960.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Hawkish BoC shifts, oil price rebound and a softer USD are the key drivers to CAD in past few weeks. In the commodity currency space, USDCAD continues to dig lower as Poloz’s comments added fuel to loonie bulls.
Recent Canada economic data is encouraging and Bank of Canada being more positive on the domestic growth outlook. Upcoming BOC meeting on July 18th is crucial.

TECHNICAL VIEW


USDCAD has retraced near 1.30 and trading below 100WEMA. It gave a bearish breakdown through two-year ascending trendline.

Near-term support finds at 1.30 and the 61.8% (1.2462-1.3793 rally) finds at 1.2960 rounded. The daily RSI is oversold and the oscillator is bullish. We forecast the selling pressure likely to arrest between 1.30 and 1.2960 levels. In this case, 1.3160 and 1.3220 are the destinations expected.
Intraday support: 1.3000, 1.2960 and 1.2900.

Click the image to open in full size.

A breakdown below 1.2960 now signals a further leg down to 1.2830/1.28, 1.2730 and 1.2500/1.2470 in the medium term.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Jun 30, 2017, 4:40am   #52
 
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Gold: Near term trend remains sideways. Closing the quarter on a neutral note.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread TECHNICAL VIEW

The trading range remains between 1259$ and 1235$ even the soft USD fails to cheer the Gold. Before retrace to 200DMA it has spotted with a double top at 1296 and aggressive sell-off drags the yellow metal to a month low.

Today on Asia trade, Gold prices are trading at 1247$ marginally higher, manages to hold 200DEMA. It is closing the quarter on a neutral note besides, DXY closing with 5% losses.

The 200DMA push the price to 1258$ but failed at 50DMA.

In the near term, it has a support finds at 1239.80$, 1235$ and 1230$ whereas in the medium term 1214$ and 1195$ exists.

On the hourly chart, the price spotted trading in a symmetrical triangle and trading on a verge of ascending triangle breakout. The daily oscillator remains bullish.

Click the image to open in full size.

Near term resistance seems at 1255$, 1259$ and 1264$, Bulls can feel comfortable only after crossing 1260$ decisively.But this didn’t bring immediate joy, but it brings lasting joy later on if propels above 1264$.

Alternatively a breakdown below 1230$ now signals a further leg down to 1215$ and 1199$.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Jul 3, 2017, 4:02am   #53
 
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USDMXN: Trading Idea. Support base remains between 17.90 and 17.80

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread USDMXN has been consolidating for four straight days. It has finally settled above 20DMA for the first time since May 02. It has been rallying nearly 4% over the past month and 19.0% year-to-date.

The daily RSI is bullish and Oscillator appear an inverted H&S pattern
On the four chart, it has breakout a minor trading range.

Click the image to open in full size.

Support base remains between 17.90 and 17.80.
The price is trading on a verge five-month descending trendline breakout.

Click the image to open in full size.

A breakout above the trendline aims for 18.25 and 18.50 in the near term.
Bulls can feel comfortable only after settle above 18.30 to aim further head room.
Until the cross hold 17.80 on a daily closing basis use a dip to buy is the best theme.
Alternatively, a breakdown below 17.80 accelerates the selling pressure again to 17.30 and 16.80.


FX positioning:

According to Nick Verdi and Mike Moran at Standard Chartered, “USD-MXN positioning has tracked this outperformance, with short positions close to historical extremes”.

ANZ Research reported the CFTC leveraged positioning for the week ending 27 June 2017, “MXN saw net buying of USD0.9bn, reversing net selling of USD1.3bn in the previous week”.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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Last edited by KeyToMarketsUK; Jul 3, 2017 at 4:27am.
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Old Jul 4, 2017, 6:29am   #54
 
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EURUSD: Funds turned bullish on the EUR.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • The ECB President Mr Draghi sounded optimistic on the EU growth outlook.
  • EU growth outlook has improved and markets are preparing for higher interest rates.
  • The ECB was likely to start winding back its bond-buying program as early as September.


FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


Following the hawkish interpretation of President Draghi’s speech markets have brought forward the first ECB’s rate hike to 2018 September.


Review of the previous week data:
  • German Ifo Business Climate 115.1 vs 114.6
  • The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 stood at 5.0% in May 2017, after 4.9% in April 2017.
  • GfK predicts an increase in consumer climate of 0.2 points to 10.6 points for July compared to the previous month.
  • Germany consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.2% on May 2017.
  • Germany May turnover was in real terms 0.5% and in nominal terms 0.3% larger than that in April 2017.
  • Euro area annual inflation down to 1.3%.
  • Spanish manufacturing sector rose to 7, signals further solid expansion at end of Q2.
  • Italy Manufacturing PMI improves slightly to 55.2, sees a strong finish to 2Q.
  • French Manufacturing sector posted8 in June to signal a further improvement.
  • Germany Manufacturing PMI rose for the sixth time in seven months in June, posting 59.6, up from 59.5 in May.
  • Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 57.4 in June, hits a 74-month

Upcoming data:


Tue, July 04
EZ PPI: Downside surprise expected

Wed, July 05
Italy Services PMI: Ease slightly

UniCredit: We expect the services PMI to ease slightly in June, to 54.8.

EZ Retail sales: Upside surprise expected 0.4% vs 0.1%.

Thu, July 06
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts.

Fri, July 07
Germany IP

UniCredit: We expect industrial production to decelerate in May to +0.1% mom.

French IP

UniCredit: We forecast a 0.7% mom increase, after -0.5% mom in April.

In the U.S we got FOMC meeting minutes of the June 14 FOMC meeting and NFP. As the week pack with high-risk events, volatility will be higher than normal trading conditions.

FOMC meeting minutes (July 5)
Market participants look for clues on the next rate hike hints and beginning of the balance sheet normalization.

NFP (July 07)
UniCredit forecast “Nonfarm payrolls likely rose a more solid 170,000 in June and the jobless rate likely stabilized at 4.3%”.

According to Barclays, “We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 185k in June. We look for average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% m/m (2.6% y/y), a faster increase than in the previous month”.



FX POSITIONING:


Following the hawkish interpretation of President Draghi’s speech, funds turned bullish on the EUR.

ANZ Research reported the CFTC leveraged positioning for the week ending 27 June 2017, “Leveraged funds reduced their net short EUR positions by USD1bn to USD1.5bn”.

SEB reported Investors were net buyers of EUR against the dollar.



TECHNICAL VIEW


It has off nearly 10% from Jan 2017 low, trading on a verge of 22-month descending trendline.

Before retracing to 1.1355 on Monday session, EURUSD spotted with a double top at 1.1445. It has parallel resistance seems at 1.1465 above this 1.1500 and 1.1535 are next in line. For intraday trading purpose resistance seems at 1.1390/1.14 and 1.1465.

Alternatively, support finds at 1.1350 and 1.1290/1.1270. Settles below 1.1290/1.1270 the selling pressure accelerates to 1.1210/1.1210 and 1.1100 in the near term.

This week’s trading range remains between 1.1535 and 1.1270. We can expect a near-term top around 1.1535 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
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Old Jul 5, 2017, 6:39am   #55
 
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JPY crosses are overly stretched. JPY technical overview against AUD and CHF.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread JPY trading higher against crosses following June Services PMI. Service sector growth accelerates to a 22-month high.

Business Activity Index edged up to 53.3 in June, from 53.0 in May, pointed to a solid rise in service sector activity.

AUDJPY, CHFJPY,EURJPY, and NZDJPY are spotted with lower high patterns on the hourly chart. The price action of JPY crosses seems JPY is oversold sold.

According to Ran RenScott and Dingman Strategist at Citi FX, “Strong Investor JPY outflows ahead of election could mean reversal in sight”.

The strategists also said in a note to clients, “JPY has yet to rally post-election and that investors could be stretched short the currency, suggests JPY buying in the near-term”.

AUDJPY TECHNICAL VIEW


Following RBA policy statement, AUD was beaten down on Tuesday session. It has a parallel support finds at 85.85 and the near-term trading range remains between 87 and 85.85. The daily RSI and oscillator appear bearish.

Near-term resistance seems at 86.20, 86.55 and 87. To escape further correction bulls needs to hold 85.85 on a closing basis and must propel above 86.50 to aim for 87 (previous high) above this 87.50 and 88 possible.

Alternatively, a breakdown below 85.60 aims to 85 and 84.60.

Click the image to open in full size.

The higher time frames are bullish a pullback in the near-term is a buying opportunity.

Click the image to open in full size.

CHFJPY TECHNICAL VIEW


The cross spotted with a triple top seems (daily chart) between 111.78 and 111.75.
On the hourly chart, it has spotted with a bearish H&S pattern and breakdown through ascending triangle.
The daily RSI appears overbought and Oscillator shifting to bearish.
Near-term support finds at 117, 116.60 and 116.
The selling accelerates below 115.90 to 115.50 and 115.
Until the cross remains below 117.80, near term downside risk forecast to 116.50 and 116.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the extreme case a retest of earlier breakout level 115.50 is highly likely.
Alternatively, settles above 118 aims for 119/119.15 and 119.90.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
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Old Jul 6, 2017, 6:19am   #56
 
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Gold: Price sensitive buying action available between 1200-1180.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Gold trading down at five-week low on the stronger USD. The price manages to hold the 100WMA below this 1214 it’s parallel support exists at 1214.

Following FOMC minutes, gold off from intraday low. Near term support remains between 1217 and 1214, a breakdown below the parallel support could trade down further to 1207 and 1200/1198$. Additional support finds at 1194.90 March-2017 low.

Risk events:

ADP employment report:

Nomura: We expect ADP to report an increase of 160k in private payrolls for June (Consensus: 185k).

NFP:

Standard Chartered: Expect a strong employment report and forecast non-farm payrolls (NFP) at 210,000 (well above the consensus of 183,000).

UniCredit forecast “Nonfarm payrolls likely rose a more solid 170,000 in June and the jobless rate likely stabilized at 4.3%”.

According to Barclays, “We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 185k in June. We look for average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% m/m (2.6% y/y), a faster increase than in the previous month”.

TECHNICAL VIEW


Near term key trigger exists at 1214, settles below this confirm the distribution pattern and a deeper correction possible in the medium term. The trading range breakdown of 82$ comes to limelight if 1214 taken out. This forecast strengthens if a breakdown below 1180 confirmed. Due to oversold RSI the selling likely to be arrested between 1214 and 1198 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

Alternatively resistance seems at 1230/1232 and 1236. Selling pressure remains in play until trading below 1236. If propel above, then 1240, 1245 and 1249 possible.

In our last week article, we forecast “leg down to 1215$ and 1199$” it has made a low at 1217.45.

NUTSHELL: A price sensitive buying action available between 1200-1180. If Fed rate hike expectations are scaled back, positive development in the price action is highly likely.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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