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Old Jun 14, 2017, 3:38am   #41
 
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CAD technical overview- AUDCAD,CADJPY and USDCAD

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • Bank of Canada hawkish talks pushes the loonie higher again on Tuesday.
  • Bank of Japan meeting (15-16 June): No policy changes expected from Bank of Japan.
  • CADJPY: Set of resistance seems between 83.30 and 83.70.
  • Aussie traders focus on labor market statistics due on Thursday (June 15).
  • AUDJPY: Higher lows are spotted on the daily chart between 0.9940 and 0.9920
  • USDCAD: Trend lines (13M and 38M) in focus
  • USDCAD: Key support find at 1.3150.

USDCAD TECHNICAL VIEW
Since two weeks we have been recommending a downside risk for 1.3250 but the price retraces further and made a low at 1.3210 tested the thirteen-month ascending trend line.
The relentless dollar selling against loonie finally pauses at 1.3210 rounded to 1.3200 below this 1.3150 100.0weekly fe exists.

NEXT IN LINE

The thirty-eight-month ascending trendline finds around 1.31 below this 100WEMA finds at 1.3050, in between 50.% (1.2462-1.3793 rally) finds at 1.3125. The weekly higher swing low and double bottom (Na, and Feb 2017) on the monthly chart coincides with 61.8% (1.2462-1.3793 rally) 1.2965.

Click the image to open in full size.

Scalpers will be attracted between 1.3210 and 1.3200 as the hourly RSI extremely oversold. For intraday (Wed) purpose support zone remains between 1.3210/1.32 below this 1.3180 and 1.3150 exists. Alternatively, near term, resistance seems at 1.3250/1.3260, 1.3300 and 1.3340. Medium-term resistance moved down from 1.3640 to 1.3540/1.3550.

AUDCAD TECHNICAL VIEW


The cross has been trading in a tight range between 1.0340 and 0.9920 for nearly 3 months. Higher lows are spotted on the daily chart between 0.9940 and 0.9920 below this it’s 20WMA exists at 0.9890 exists. The 61.8% (1.0393-0.9597 fall) finds at 0.99 and 80.0% finds at 0.9750.

Alternatively, resistance seems at 0.9990/1.0010, 1.0060 and 1.0100.

Click the image to open in full size.

CAD TECHNICAL VIEW


The near term trading range remains between 80.55 and 83.70 . The cross made a high at 83.28 rejected at 200DEMA, 83.30 above this 100DMA 83.70 exists. On the higher time frames, 20MA (WEEKLY) seems at 83.55 and on monthly chart 20MA seem at 83.50.

Before made a double bottom in mid-May the price rejected at 38.2% (88.90-80.55 fall) seems at 83.70. If the cross propels above May high 83.70, further headroom expected for 84.10 and 84.70. In the medium term, bulls can feel comfortable after settles above 84.70 decisively aim for 86.80/87. Support finds at 82.90, 82.10/82 and 81.60.

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Old Jun 15, 2017, 3:57am   #42
 
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AUD overview- AUDUSD, AUDCAD & AUDNZD

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Aussie dollar higher on the back of May 2017 Aussie labor statistics
AUDNZD is the winner.
AUDUSD and AUDCAD ran to the resistance.
Unemployment rate in Australia remained at 5.7%
FUNDAMENTAL NEWS

Aussie dollar higher on Asia trade on the back of May 2017 Aussie labor statistics. AUD rose nearly 0.50% against CAD,JPY,EUR,GBP and USD but gains are stretched to a percent against NZD. Hours before Aussie labor statistics, NZ delivers a moderate GDP growth data in 1Q 2017.

Summary:

Full –time employment increase an additional 52,100 persons and a 10,100 decrease in part-time employment. Since May 2016, full-time employment increased by 148,000 persons, while part-time employment increased by 84,800 persons.

Besides trend unemployment rate in Australia remained at 5.7 percent in May 2017.

TECHNICAL VEIW

AUDUSD

Following the positive labor data Aussie dollar strikes 0.50% against USD but unable to breach yesterday high (12:00 PM AEST). As of now the cross made a high at 0.7632 yesterday high was 0.7635 consolidating at 100WEMA. Earlier the cross failed multiple times at 100WEMA above this fourteen-month descending weekly trend line exists.

The cross has resistance seems between 0.7675/0.77 and 0.7750 (March high). Support finds at 0.7560, 0.7520 and 0.7475.

AUDNZD

The positive labor data extends the highest intraday gains against Kiwi dollar. Hours before Aussie labor statistics, NZ delivers a moderate GDP growth data in 1Q 2017.

The cross been forming a base between 1.0430 and 1.0390 finally takes off and recorded a highest intra gains in a month time frame. It has takes to the 20MA for the first time in a month and given a breakout through symmetrical triangle on the four hour chart.

We forecast it has the velocity to aim for 1.0550 and 1.0570/1.0590 initially, and 1.0640 levels in the extreme case.

The daily RSI and oscillator remains bullish.

Click the image to open in full size.

AUDCAD


Yesterday we suggested the readers to focus on AUDCAD as it has trading near a support zone. It rose nearly 140 pips from the recorded price 0.9965, today’s high 1.0095 (12:35PM AEST). We close the view and analyse again as the price approaches resistance zone seems between 1.0100 and 1.0110.

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Old Jun 16, 2017, 5:39am   #43
 
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EURUSD: Use a dip to buy.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread EUR again failed at 1.13 line even U.S CPI shock unable to lift the nose above. Following FOMC meeting dollar attracts fresh flows sends the EURUSD far below 20DMA on Thursday session. The current dollar rally likely to sap quickly and a summer low yet to come.

Data review:


The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany dropped by 2.0 points in June 2017 and now stands at 18.6 points.

What’s on today?


EZ final CPI YoY basis forecast 1.4% vs 1.4%

TECHNICAL VIEW


EURUSD spotted with multiple tops between 1.1265 and 1.1300 finally turned back. It has closed far below 20DMA and an ascending wedge pattern breakdown visible. Ever since BREXIT, EURUSD failed to propel above 1.13 mark except for four occasions (Mid- August 2016).

The daily RSI and Oscillator remains bearish, nearest potential support finds between 1.1120/1.11 and 1.1070. Below this selling pressure accelerates for 1.1020/1.10. Alternatively, resistance seems at 1.1170, 1.1220 and 1.1300.

The price likely to retest the higher end of daily ascending wedge and we would expect a new high to 1.1360 and 1.14/1.1430 and 1.1460. In additional between 1.0950 and 1.0850 offers best buying opportunity in medium term.

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Old Jun 20, 2017, 2:51am   #44
 
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BRENT: We are adjusting our Brent oil price forecast.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • Oil price has been consolidating at early May lows as lower tops accelerating the downward pressure.
  • For four consecutive sessions, Oil has been trading at seven-month low as concerns about U.S output growth stayed.


FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


OPEC cuts working at a slower pace than analysts expected, we are adjusting our Brent oil price forecast.

On Monday session, Brent oil price down nearly a percent low made 46.63, gave up a modest Intraday gain. Year-to-date lows currently acting as a nominal support below this November 2016 lows in focus.



According to Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of consultants FGE, The price of oil could fall to $30/b next year and stay at that level for about two years.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Khalid al-Falih, said Monday that global oil market fundamentals are “moving in the right direction,” but erasing the large surplus of crude held in storage will take time, reported by Platts.com.



Hedge funds cut bullish bets on U.S. crude oil for first time in 4 weeks, reported by Reuters.

US shale gas producers increased the number of rigs again last the week, the 22nd week in a row. The number of wells at the end of the May was the highest in over three years, reported by ANZ in a morning note today.



TECHNICAL VIEW




Brent futures trying to rebound on Friday and Monday sessions, but higher end of the falling channel resist.

The daily RSI appears a higher low and the oscillator remains bullish. To confirm the near term bottom the price has to close above 47.60, the resistance came down from 48.30 to 47.60.

Support finds at 46.30, 45.70 and 45. In medium term potential support finds at 44.30/44 and 43.50.

The price retraced 38.2% (27-58.35$ rally) in May on a break would be 42.70$ its 50.0% fib and 39$ its 61.8%. The ABC pattern target or 100.0 daily fe aims to 44.50$ initially.

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Old Jun 21, 2017, 3:37am   #45
 
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Gold price is increasingly oversold expect a decent bounce.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Before retrace to five-week low gold price spotted with a double top seems at 1295$. The price has been in a downtrend since early June.

Following Fed hawkish comments USD attracts fresh inflows pressures the precious metal price.

Technical view:


In the near term perspective, price is increasingly oversold expect a decent bounce.
On the hourly chart, the price is trading on a verge of the bullish breakout through falling channel.

Click the image to open in full size.

On the four hour chart, the RSI and Oscillator appear bullish and the price respects the parallel support 1239 below this 200DMA finds at 1238$.

In the near term perspective, support finds at 1238, 1235 and 1230. Alternatively resistance seems at 1250, 1254 and 1264. We expect a decent bounce from the support between 1243 and 1238.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the medium term perspective, support levels remain at 1214 and 1195.

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Old Jun 22, 2017, 5:18am   #46
 
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NZDUSD: lower tops formation limits the upside risk.

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FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


The Kiwi dollar spikes today Asia trade following RBNZ rate statement.



The Reserve Bank of New Zealand today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75 percent. The outcome is widely expected and the NZD was spike initially later squeezed gradually.

RBNZ maintained neutral stance in June statement, a similar statement stated in May.

Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said in the statement, “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly”.

The statement also said, “A lower New Zealand dollar would help rebalance the growth outlook towards the tradables sector”. NZD rose nearly 0.70% following neutral policy outlook.

According to Cameron Bagrie and Philip Borkin at ANZ, We’re sticking to the view the OCR is likely to move up in mid2018, but that’s still a long way off.

TECHNICAL VIEW


NZDUSD continues to fail between 0.7320 and 0.7300, lower tops formation limits the upside risk. On the hourly chart, we can observe a symmetrical triangle (H1) formation. The daily RSI is making a lower high pattern and the oscillator appears bearish.

Click the image to open in full size.

It has potential support finds between 0.7200 and 0.7180 fails to hold likely to retrace to 0.71/0.7090 in the near term.

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Old Jun 23, 2017, 4:52am   #47
 
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Brent: Twice tested the falling trendline, may be building a base.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Oil price recovered a percent on Thursday session, after U.S crude and gasoline stockpiles fell. Crude oil hits 2017 lows on global oversupply, down 22% YTD.

OPEC countries are discussing deepening their production cut agreement, Iran oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said Wednesday reported by Platts.com.

A meeting of the OPEC/non-OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is scheduled in Russia in late July, with the exact venue and date still to be determined.

In a statement distributed by OPEC, the committee said it “took note of the recent market development and expressed confidence that the oil market is moving in the right direction.”

TECHNICAL VIEW


Brent oil price made another bearish week (fifth consecutive week), bearish breakdown through early May support.

Brent twice tested the falling trendline, may be building a base. As we forecast on Tuesday (June 20) it has pause the relentless selling at 100.0 daily fe finds at 44.30, low made at 44.20.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the medium term potential support finds at 44.30/44 and 43.50 below this 42.70$ its 50.0% fib and 39$ its 61.8% exists.

In the near-term perspective, bullish confirmation not yet available but we are a buyer on a pattern breakout if visible on the hourly chart.

Click the image to open in full size.

Propel above 45.70 will rebound to 46 and 46.30. Support finds at 44.80, 44.40 and 44.20/44. The daily RSI is oversold, appears a limited downside risk.

46.50 is the key level to breach in case of a rebound.


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Old Jun 26, 2017, 1:51am   #48
 
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Brent: The target on a breakout is 47.60, 49 and 50$ initially.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
TECHNICAL VIEW


Oil was higher on Thursday and Friday sessions off nearly 3% from weekly lows. Brent oil price made another bearish week (fifth consecutive week), bearish breakdown through early May support.

Despite ongoing cuts, oil crude is still set for the worst first-half decline in two decades, reported by Reuters. Crude oil hits 2017 lows on global oversupply, down 22% YTD.

The price so far and tested the 100.fe and managed to hold, a gradual recovery expected.

Brent twice tested the falling trendline, may be building a base.

In the medium term, potential support finds at 44.30/44 and 43.50 below this 42.70$ its 50.0% fib and 39$ its 61.8% exists.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the near-term perspective, bullish confirmation not yet available but we are a buyer on a pattern breakout if visible on the hourly chart. On the four hour chart, the price is trading on a verge of Ascending triangle. The target on a breakout is 47.60, 49 and 50$ initially.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.


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