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Old Aug 4, 2017, 7:27am   #76
 
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GBPUSD: Remains in a bullish channel.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The pound fell after the BOE’s monetary policy decision to hold the interest rates. The bank’s growth forecast downgrades pressures the pound.

The MPC voted by a majority of 6-2 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.25%. The MPC’s inflation outlook is broadly similar in May. In the MPC’s central forecast, GDP growth remains sluggish in the near term.

FX : The pound was beaten down across the board. GBP down 1.30% against the JPY (highest) followed by GBPCHF down 0.90%, GBPUSD down 0.80% and GBPCAD down 0.60%. EURGBP rose 0.80%.

TECHNICAL VIEW


GBPUSD faces resistance at 20MA (monthly) and manages to hold 1.3100 for now, next levels to watch 1.3100/1.3080 and 1.3045. The cable already retraced 23.6% (1.2588-1.3267 rally), near term potential support finds at 1.3045 below this 1.3000 exists.

Resistances seems at 1.3160, 1.3200 and 1.3250. The selling pressure remains until the cable settles below 1.3200.

Market participants focus on today’s Non-farm payroll data.

The daily RSI edging down and breakdown the rising trend. The better near term buying levels yet to come.

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Old Aug 7, 2017, 3:50am   #77
 
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EURUSD and AUDUSD Technical overview

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread • Retraced 23.6% (1.1120-1.1910) and respect the parallel support@1.1720.
• Potential resistance remains at 1.1800, 1.1840 and 1.1900/1.1910.
• It has been moving higher for five straight months. Since 2008, there were two occasions it has moved higher for five straight months and 1 time recorded for six straight monthly gains.
• The daily RSI indicates overbought. If fails at the resistance zone, focus shifts to 1.1680 and 1.1620/1.1580 levels.
• The 38.2% finds at 1.1600, we are a buyer a if adip available between 1.1640-1.1600.

Click the image to open in full size.

  • Thrice failed (weekly) at 200WMAs seems between 0.7990 and 0.8000.
  • As we forecast last week, “Until remains below the supply zone , 7880/0.7870 will be in focus”. It has re-tested the support level.
  • A breakdown below 0.7870 needed to re-test the 20DMA@0.7800.
  • Resistances seems at 0.8000/0.8020 and 0.8060.
  • Settles above 0.8000 will aim gaain at 0.8060 above this, 0.8100 and 0.8150 (the final push).
  • The daily RSI and Oscillator remains bearish.
  • AUDNZD is going to be the trade of the week as RBNZ policy meeting in focus (Thur,10Aug).

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Old Aug 8, 2017, 3:35am   #78
 
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EURUSD: We continue to believe a near-term retracement in the euro

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
FUNDAMENTAL NEWS

US inflation and another strong month of non-farm employment growth likely to resist the euro vertical rally further.

Data review:
  • Euro area annual inflation stable at 1.3%
  • Euro Area unemployment rate was 9.1% in June 2017, down from 9.2% in May 2017.
  • GDP up by 0.6% in both the euro area and the EU.
  • Industrial producer prices down by 0.1% in euro area Down by 0.2% in EU.
  • Germany industrial production was down by 1.1% from the previous month.

Upcoming data:

  • Tue, Aug 08

Germany Trade balance.

Given the lack of macro economic data, it is understandably a quiet week in the markets. Market participants focus on the US data outcome.



TECHNICAL VIEW


The euro has retraced 23.6% after last week NFP data but respected the parallel support. Last Friday price action fail to breach the bullish channel, but the daily and weekly RSI remain overbought.

Click the image to open in full size.

Last week resistance turns to support, i.e 200WMA. The euro has a support finds at 1.1770 its 200WMA below this 1.1720 a parallel support. Some traders used this dip to buy, but we are still on the side lines. The 38.2% finds at 1.1600 and the 20DMA finds at 1.1660, we are a buyer around 38.2%.

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Old Aug 9, 2017, 3:20am   #79
 
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BRENT: Symmetrical triangle in focus

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Before retraced to 51.10$ last week, the Brent oil was rejected at 61.8% (Jan-June fall).

It is still trading near nine-week high, supported by U.S drilling rig count and net longs to the highest since mid-April.

Baker Hughes said, drillers cut one oil rig in the week to August 4, bringing the total count down to 765.

Positioning:
Hedge funds and other money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to August 1, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday, reported by Reuters. The level was the highest seen since mid-April, according to data compiled by Reuters.

TECHNICAL VIEW


Though it breached the two-month falling trend line, the long term price action remains in the lower lows and lower highs pattern and trading below the eight-month descending trend line.

Click the image to open in full size.

As we forecast in our last week’s article, near term head room is limited. The recent price action caught in a symmetrical triangle (H4 chart). A move below 51$ needed to confirm the distribution pattern. In this case, 50.50, 49.60 and 49 are next in line.

Alternatively in case of a symmetrical triangle break out, 53.50, 54 and 54.30 possible.

Set of resistance zones are likely to play a significant role in the near and medium term. Initial zone seems at 53.50 and 53.70 above this 54.30 and 54.60 exists.

Symmetrical triangle breakdown needed to confirm the near term retracement.

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Old Aug 10, 2017, 3:27am   #80
 
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Gold: Move on to resistance zone.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Renewed geopolitical tensions in relation to North Korea brings the safe counter to the front seat like JPY,CHF,Gold and Silver.

Gold price gave a breakout through descending wedge pattern (chart 1) on the hourly charts but the rally paused at a parallel resistance.

In the near term between 1279 and 1283, it has a potential supply zone.
  • A parallel resistance@1281
  • 80.0% fib (1204.80-1279 rally) @1278
  • 100.0 fe on the four-hour chart seems at 1282 (chart 1)
The higher end of the symmetrical trend line (chart 3) seems at 1280

Click the image to open in full size.

If propel above 1283 additional resistances exist at 1287 its 100.0fe daily (chart2) and 1296 earlier double top (chart 2). Alternatively, support finds at 1270, 1265 and 1254/1251. Near term, potential support finds between 1258 and 1250.

Click the image to open in full size.

Until the price holds the 1251 level, bulls keep trying to breach the symmetrical triangle (chart 3). In this case 1295, 1300 and 1310 are possible. Additional bullish strength available only above 1295 (daily closing basis). In the extreme case 1328 its 100MA (monthly) possible.

Click the image to open in full size.

Alternatively, 1270 and 1265 is the open target fails to stand above 1279-1282. The daily RSI still making lower high but the oscillator turns bullish.

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Old Aug 11, 2017, 2:55am   #81
 
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Brent: price action appears more bearish.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread • Brent oil rejected at the supply zone.
• Re-tested 200DMA.
• The lower end of the symmetrical triangle in focus.

TECHNICAL VIEW
The near term price action likely being a sideways with in a tight trading range between 53.50 and 51. We believe the recent price action appears more bearish. The daily RSI and oscillator remain bearish.

Brent oil price down nearly 2% on Thursday session, from intraday high down nearly 3.8% and re-tested the 200DMA. Even though the price breaches the higher end of the symmetrical triangle, the supply zone seems between 53.50-53.70 rejected.

We repeatedly said, “Set of resistance zones are likely to play a significant role in the near and medium term. Initial zone seems at 53.50 and 53.70 above this 54.30 and 54.60 exists”.

In the near term, it has a support finds at 51.80 its 200DMA below this 51.50 and 51.10/51 are next in line. A move below 50.90 needed to re-test the 50.60, 50 and even 49.70. Resistances remain at 52.60/52.70, 53.10 and 53.50.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Aug 13, 2017, 11:39pm   #82
 
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JPY crosses technical overview

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • Safe heaven flows lifted the CHF and JPY last week as Geopolitical risk has increased as the US and North Korea.
  • We have couple of buy trades after a reasonable correction in JPY crosses,according to our technical analysis.
  • The ECB minutes are the key risk event in this week, EURCHF in lime light

EURJPY: Respected the parallel support

• We have previously advised that EURJPY likely to pause between 128.00 and 127.60.
• Last Friday, it has made a low at 128.04 and change the direction.
• The daily RSI remain bearish and the oscillator appears a bearish H&S pattern.
• Near term resistances seems at 129.50,130.00 and 130.70.
• Further retracement expected if 50DMA taken out. In this case, 127 and 126/125.80 is an open target.
• View: Medium term potential support zone remains between 126 and 124. The weekly RSI remains oversold and oscillator turns bearish. We are a buyer between these levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

USDJPY: Resistance moved down to 110.10 from 111.00
  • The cross has been moving lower for five-straight weeks and finally re-tested the 200EMA (weekly).
  • USDJPY continues to form the lower lows and lower highs pattern on a medium term basis.
  • Last week price action completed the breakdown target. (109.80-111=1.2, 109.80-1.2=108.60)
  • Near term support zone remains between 108.60 and 108.10/108.
  • Additional support finds at 107.50.
  • Near term trading range remains between 108.00 and 111.
  • From a technical point of view, a move below 108.00 needed to re-test the 107.50 and 107.00 levels.
  • Resistances seems at 110.00 and 111.00
  • View: We believe a rebound until holds the 107.50. Buying expected between 108.60 and 108.00. We are watching at 110.00 and 111.00
Click the image to open in full size.

CHFJPY: Buying the dip


Since four trading sessions it has managed to hold the 200MAs.
The daily oscillator turns bullish.
We forecast a bullish reaction in the term.
Supports moved to 113.20, 112.90 and 112.50.
Resistance seems at 113.65, 114.00 and 114.80/115.00
Bulls regain the strength if propelled above 113.60.
A move below 112.30 should open to 112, 111.60 and 111.00
View: Until the cross holds 112.30, a potential move expected for 115.00 and 115.50.

Click the image to open in full size.

GBPJPY: Erased the 4-month trendline

  • GBPJPY erased the four-month ascending trendline.
  • The recent price action remains in a falling channel.
  • The oversold daily RSI might ignite a minor uptrend but limited to 144.00.
  • Supports finds at 140.80, 140/139.80 and 139/138.70.
  • Resistances seems at 142.40, 143 and 144.00.
  • The daily oscillator remains bearish.
  • View: We are waiting for 140.80 and 140 levels.
  • Alternatively, bullish trade available if settles above 142.40 aims at 143, 143.30 and 143.80.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.

Last edited by KeyToMarketsUK; Aug 13, 2017 at 11:47pm.
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Old Aug 15, 2017, 12:00am   #83
 
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EURUSD: Rejected at a parallel resistance. Spotted with a H&S pattern.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread EURUSD rose nearly 0.6% last week amid Geopolitical concerns.
The euro bullish sentiment retains the recent vertical rally.
Focus shift to the Fed and the ECB latest meeting minutes.
FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


The empty economic calendar and the Geopolitical risk unable to derail the EURUSD vertical rally. Recent economic data were more positive than negative, supported the euro to outperform.

The July FOMC meeting minutes likely to reveal hint regarding timing of balance sheet normalization. The July ECB minutes unlikely to provide a new information to trigger a fresh rally.

Data Review:

Germany industrial production was down by 1.1%.
German exports increased by 0.7% and imports by 3.6% in June 2017 year on year.
In June 2017 French, industrial production index increased by 1.1% compared with the previous month.
Compared with June 2017, the Germany CPI rose by 0.4% in July 2017.
Industrial production down by 0.6% in euro area down by 0.5% in EU

Upcoming data:

Wed, Aug 16:

Final Q2GDP

July FOMC meeting minutes

The July FOMC meeting minutes likely to reveal hint regarding timing of balance sheet normalization.

Thu, Aug 17:

July ECB meeting minutes

The July ECB minutes unlikely to provide a new major information.

Fri, Aug 18:

Final July CPI and core CPI

TECHNICAL VIEW


Post NFP the other week EURUSD off the high, retrace 23.6% and re-tested the 20DMA. Twice held the 20DMA then rebounded to 1.1847 last Friday.

The near-term trading range remains between 1.1850 and 1.1680. On Monday Europe session it ran to 1.1850 and rejected at a parallel resistance. Propel above 1.1850 expected for 1.1890/1.1900 initially. Alternatively, a move below 1.1680 needed to re-test the 1.1610/1.1600 and 1.1570.

On the four-hour chart, the price action spotted with a bearish H&S pattern. Shoulders seems at 1.1850, a neckline (blue) breakdown needed to complete the pattern target at 1.1630.

Click the image to open in full size.

Tactically EURUSD is overbought, a dip is a good opportunity for the medium-term perspective, aiming at 1.20/1.2040 and 1.2300 finally.

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Old Aug 15, 2017, 9:59am   #84
 
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KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
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Old Aug 16, 2017, 12:31am   #85
 
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GBPUSD: Key support zone in focus.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • UK inflation stalls at 2.6% in July 2017, unchanged from June 2017.
  • The cable lost 0.90% on Tuesday.
  • Re-tested the five-month ascending trend line.

Tuesday report showed weak inflation at 2.6% figure below economists expectations 2.7%. Following the report, the pound fell as the weak inflation likely to pressure the BOE in preparing the ground for a rate hike.

The other week BOE policy decision printed on the dovish side, pressure the GBP. Focus shifts back to politics rather than economic data.

Upcoming data:

Wed, Aug 16:

June labor market

Barclays: Average weekly earnings 1.9% y/y; consensus: 1.8% and an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.5%.

July FOMC meeting minutes

The July FOMC meeting minutes likely to reveal hint regarding timing of balance sheet normalization.

Thu, Aug 17:

Retail sales

Barclays: Sales data are likely to show strong growth in July 1.1%.



TECHNICAL VIEW

The cable continues the fall for the third straight week currently sits tad below 20WMA. It has retraced more than 30.0% (Oct-July rally) and 61.8% (1.2650-1.3268 rally), manages to hold the key MAs on the daily chart.

Yesterday’s price action drift the cable to the five-month ascending trend line and 100MA. The daily RSI and oscillator remain bearish.

Supports moved to 1.2840, 1.2810/1.2800 it’s 100.0fe and 1.2700.

A move below 1.2770 needed to forecast further retracement to 1.2720 it’s 38.2 fibs and 1.2700 early February high.

Resistance s seems at 1.2900, 1.2950 and 1.3030. Until remains, 1.3030 selling the rally is the favorable trade in the near term.

Click the image to open in full size.

Medium term potential support zone finds at 1.2640 and 1.2580 (below chart). At this point, we forecast a bullish reaction.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Aug 16, 2017, 12:58am   #86
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http://www.trade2win.com/boards/fore...r-bands-2.html
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Old Aug 17, 2017, 2:56am   #87
 
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AUDUSD: Facing resistance at the descending trendline.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread On the back of the strong base metals and a sell-off in the USD investors migrate to the higher yield currencies like AUD and NZD on Wednesday session.
  • Strongest one- day rise.
  • Daily oscillator turns to bullish.
  • Potential resistance seems between 0.7970 and 0.79990.

AUDUSD rose nearly 1.5% and erased two-week descending trend line, but fails to breach the other (below chart) on today Asia session. Even the July employment data unable to push the cross above.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


After a spectacular run, the daily oscillator turns to bullish. It has a potential resistance seems between 0.7970 and 0.79990 rounded to 0.8000. The weekly 200MAs seems at 0.7980 and 0.7990.

Aussie bulls can feel comfortable only after crossing these hurdles decisively! In this case, 0.8050/0.8060 July high and 0.8150 expected.
Supports moved to 0.7880, 0.7830 and 0.7800.

Additional support finds at 0.7780 it’s 38.2% (May-July rally) below this 0.7750 its 50DMA and an earlier breakout level 0.7740. A move below 0.7740 needed to retrace further to 0.7690 it’s 50.0% fib which coincides with 100DEMA.

View: If the descending trend line rejected the cross, likely to re-test the earlier breakout descending wedge sits around 0.7900-0.7880.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Aug 17, 2017, 12:17pm   #88
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What is your Technical View?

Old school TA is subjective and calculated with babymaths. The coming TA evolution will see the retail trader have access to objectively calculated TA removing the sillyness of hand drawn lines.
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Old Aug 17, 2017, 1:43pm   #89
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wisefoolx View Post
What is your Technical View?

Old school TA is subjective and calculated with babymaths. The coming TA evolution will see the retail trader have access to objectively calculated TA removing the sillyness of hand drawn lines.
Great! Show us an example
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Old Aug 17, 2017, 4:31pm   #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KeyToMarketsUK View Post
Great! Show us an example
I will be dedicating a thread to this in the not too distant future but let's start with trendlines.

They are all utterly subjective, whether you connect higher lows to other higher lows of higher highs to other higher highs or any combination you like, they are all as valid as each other so why this so called ' rule ' of connecting higher lows to establish an uptrend.

Why not just use linear regression ? Simple, objective, unbiased.
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