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Old Jul 13, 2017, 4:47am   #61
 
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USDCAD: Support zone remains between 1.2680 and 1.2650.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The Bank of Canada raises the interest rates for the first time since 2010. Future rate hikes will remain data dependent.

The Canadian dollar is the star of the Wednesday session rose 2% against the USD. The Bank of Canada raises rates to 0.75% by 25bps. It has joined with the Fed in starting monetary policy normalization.

According to BoC, Recent data have bolstered the Bank’s confidence in its outlook for above-potential growth and the absorption of excess capacity in the economy. Canada’s economy has been robust, fuelled by household spending.

According to RBC Research, “The bank sees growth broadening across industries and regions and thinks the energy sector’s adjustment to lower oil prices is largely complete”.

Key notes:

The Bank of Canada is raising its target for the overnight rate to 3/4 per cent.
Future adjustments to the target for the overnight rate will be guided by incoming data as they inform the Bank’s inflation outlook.
The Bank estimates real GDP growth will moderate further over the projection horizon, from 2.8 per cent in 2017 to 2.0 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019.
The bank acknowledges recent softness in inflation but judges this to be temporary.
The Bank expects inflation to return to close to 2 per cent by the middle of 2018.

FX outlook:

Recent positive economic data and BoC officials hawkish statements strengthens the CAD in the recent weeks. This monetary policy statement likely to extend the CAD support. But in the near term we forecast a limited downside risk to USDCAD.

Click the image to open in full size.

Cad outperforms 2% against the USD following hawkish BoC monetary policy statement. It has been digging for three consecutive months, settles far below 20MA (monthly).

The recent price action setup multiple tops at 1.2940 and 1.30/1.3015. On the four-hour chart, the price completed the 161.8% (see the below chart). It has a parallel supports available at 1.2684 and 1.2650 (weekly chart).

Click the image to open in full size.

Further downfall expected if 1.2650 taken out, aims to 1.2550, 1.2500 and 1.2460.

In the medium term perspective potential supports available at 1.2490 and 1.2360 it’s 200MA (weekly)

Trade possibilities :
  • Until the price holds 1.2650, we forecast a rebound in the near term.
  • For bears, sell on a rise around 1.30 is the better opportunity.

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Old Jul 24, 2017, 12:14am   #62
 
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AUDUSD: Wouldn’t be surprised if tested the support.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread AUDUSD rallies to 2-year high’s on RBA minutes, facing potential resistance at higher time frames. It has made a high at 0.7988 rejected at 200MA(weekly) seems between 0.7990 and 0.8010. On the monthly chart, 200MA seems at 0.7980.

Early July, we forecast a “Wait for a dip to buy”at 0.76 levels, time to take profit. The near term price action appears a correction, but on the medium term basis, we remain bullish.

Click the image to open in full size.

Ahead of the CPI and RBA Gov Lowe’s Speech (Wednesday), we express a limited upside risk and a healthy correction needed.

The AUD bulls are intensely watching on CPI and Speech by Philip Lowe, Governor at the Anika Foundation Luncheon, Sydney 26 July 2017, 1.05 pm AEST.

Data preview:

A downside CPI or cool down tightening expectations by Lowe might pressure the AUD in the near term.

Besides, the US dollar traders are focus on July FOMC.

Wed 26 July 2017:

CPI:

The recent A$ appreciation is likely to add hefty downside pressure on prices.

Nomura: We forecast a moderate 0.5% q-o-q rise in headline CPI inflation in Q2, based on mixed partial data so far.

Barclays: We forecast Q2 CPI inflation to grow at 0.3% q/q, below consensus.

CITI FX: We forecast a 0.4% rise in Q2 headline CPI and 0.5% in underlying inflation.


Forecast: Wouldn’t be surprised if 0.7830 tested, below this 0.7750 and 0.7700 are next in line.

Resistances are seems between 0.7970 and 0.8010 above this 0.8070 exists.

Click the image to open in full size.



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Old Jul 25, 2017, 1:21am   #63
 
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EURUSD: The rapid move finally approaches the potential hurdle zone.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • The euro climbs to 23-month high as the unloved USD struggles.
  • This mid week likely to change the FX trends.
  • We expect a limited impact on markets as no press conference at this meeting.

No change in Fed interest rate policy is expected in July meeting. Market participants focus on the timing of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction.

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


ECB has left its forward guidance unchanged. We expect the ECB likely to announce a reduction of its bond purchases to announce at the 07 September meeting.

Review of the previous week data:
  • Annual inflation down to 1.3% in the euro area and down to 1.4% in the EU.
  • Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment fell slightly by 1.1 points in July 2017 and now stands at 17.5 points.
  • In May 2017 the current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €30.1 billion.
  • ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged at 0.0%.
  • France Flash Manufacturing PMI increases to 55.4 (54.8 in June) 75-month high.
  • France Flash Services Activity Index falls to 55.9 (56.9 in June), 6-month low.
  • Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI at 58.3 (59.6 in June). 3-month low.
  • Flash Germany Services PMI Activity Index at 53.5 (54.0 in June). 6-month low.
  • Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 56.8 (57.4 in June). 3-month low.
  • Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index at 55.4 (55.4 in June).

Upcoming data:

Tue, July 25

German Ifo Business Climate forecast 114.9 vs 115.1

Wed, July 26

FOMC meeting: We expect a limited impact on markets as no press conference at this meeting.

Fri, July 28

Germany Prelim CPI MoM basis forecast 0.2% vs 0.2%

TECHNICAL VIEW


The EUR has rallied to a 23-month high rallied more than 10% year-to-date. The rapid move finally approaches to the potential hurdle zone.

Last week EURUSD closed out above 200WEMA, high made 1.1682. The parallel resistance seems at 1.1715 above this 1.1780/1.18 exists. The 50MA (monthly) seems at 1.1840.

This week’s pivotal seems at 1.1715(August 2015 high) and 1.1735 38.2% (1.3992-1.0340 fall). Until trades below, price action remains between 1.1735 and 1.1470 in the near term.

Supports are available at 1.1600/1.1580, 1.1490/1.1470 and 1.1300. The selling pressure remains at 1.1715/1.1735 and accelerates below 1.1580.

Alternatively, propels above 1.1735, it will elevate to 1.1780/1.18 and even 1.1840/1.1870 is highly likely.

Click the image to open in full size.

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What is your Technical View?


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Old Jul 25, 2017, 6:30am   #64
 
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What people really need is what pairs should one invest in this week and the direction.

Keep it simple

If you really want to show off then try the S&P weekly comp and win it.
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Old Jul 25, 2017, 9:43am   #65
 
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KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pat494 View Post
What people really need is what pairs should one invest in this week and the direction.

Keep it simple

If you really want to show off then try the S&P weekly comp and win it.
If you read the analysis there are all the information to take a decision for the following days and weeks (since we use 4H and Daily chart).

I don't like the SP500 weekly competition because "guessing a number" looks more like a "playing the lottery" rather than follow a trading system.

Win the SP500 competition doesn't grow you trading account, analyse the market and trade a system with disclipine does.
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Old Jul 25, 2017, 4:48pm   #66
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KeyToMarketsUK View Post
If you read the analysis there are all the information to take a decision for the following days and weeks (since we use 4H and Daily chart).

I don't like the SP500 weekly competition because "guessing a number" looks more like a "playing the lottery" rather than follow a trading system.

Win the SP500 competition doesn't grow you trading account, analyse the market and trade a system with disclipine does.
Ahem. Not sliding out of the challenge , are we ?

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Old Jul 25, 2017, 4:56pm   #67
 
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KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pat494 View Post
Ahem. Not sliding out of the challenge , are we ?

I am just not interested in picking up numbers as in the lottery, especially when there are no prizes
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Old Jul 25, 2017, 6:04pm   #68
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KeyToMarketsUK View Post
I am just not interested in picking up numbers as in the lottery, especially when there are no prizes
Now that's not quite right. Not only does one have the bragging rights BUT there is a quarterly and annual prize as kindly given by T2W .
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Old Jul 26, 2017, 3:15am   #69
 
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USD crosses technical overview

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Ahead of the July FOMC policy meeting today, the US dollar index temporarily paused the downtrend. It has retraced more than 80.0% (91.90-103.80 rally) made a low at 93.65.
Potential support zone remains between 93.30 and 93 below this 92.60 and 92 are next in line.
A move below 92.60 needed to re-test the 92 and 91.50, at this point it is likely to change the direction.
Intraday resistances seem at 94.50/94.60, 95/95.20 and 95.50. Supports are available at 93.80, 93.50 and 93.20/93.
We forecast it has a potential to rebound to 94.40/94.50 initially.

Click the image to open in full size.

USDJPY continues to bounce after retraced to a support zone finds between 110.60-110.50.

It rallied beyond the descending trendline, made a high at 111.96 on Wednesday early Asia trade.

It has a potential resistance seems at 112.00/112.10 above this 112.40 and 112.75/113 are next in line. The near term trading zone remains between 113.00 and 110.00.

It has erased the 2-week falling channel; rebound nearly 35% (114.50-110.60). The 50.% seems at 112.50 and 61.8% at 113.

Click the image to open in full size.

Click the image to open in full size.

The relentless USDCAD selling temporarily paused at 200WEMA, which is levelled at 1.2490, low made at 1.2480. The 80.0% (1.1919-1.4689 rally) coincides with yesterday low 1.2480.

It has a parallel support finds at 1.2460 (earlier swing low). The sell-off likely to be moderated ahead of the July FOMC meeting. A move below 1.2460 needed to re-test the 1.2400/1.2375.

It has already retraced more than 10% in the past three month, therefore we forecast the sell-off likely to pause between 1.2480 and 1.2375 followed by a minor rebound.

Resistance seems at 1.2550 propels above this aims at 1.2600, 1.2640, 1.2700. In the extreme case 1.2750 possible. The near term potential resistance moved down to 1.2830 from 1.3000.

Click the image to open in full size.

USDCHF: Before rebound to 0.9530 the cross fell tad below 0.9440 on Friday session.

It has a potential resistance at 0.9550/0.9560 its 200WEMA. We forecast it will consolidate between 0.9440 and 0.9560 for a considerable period of time before further run.

If settles above 0.9560, a rebound expected to 0.9590/0.9600, 0.9650 and 0.9700. Alternatively a breakdown below 0.9440 again, retrace further to 0.9330/0.9300 initially.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
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Old Jul 27, 2017, 3:03am   #70
 
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EURUSD: Ran to resistance zone.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • EURUSD rose more than 38.2% (1.3993-1.0339 fall).
  • DXY slips to support zone, besides EURUSD ran to resistance zone.

As market participants expected Fed maintained the target rate at 1.00%-1.25%. The statement was without any major changes. The US dollar down across the board especially against NZD,TRY and MXN down a percent.

Federal Reserve softens the inflation language, which was a bit dovish. Fed says, “Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term.”

Fed hints at balance sheet reduction in September. The statement reveals, “The Committee expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon”.

EURUSD rose 0.80% on Wednesday session and closed above the breakout level.

It has rallied to a 23-month high rose more than 10% year-to-date. The rapid move finally approaches to the potential hurdle zone seems at 1.1735 it’s 38.2% (1.3993-1.0339 fall) above this 1.1780 its 200WSMA and 1.1840 50MA (monthly). The higher end of the Bollinger band seems at 1.1760.

It has been moving higher for five straight months. Since 2008, there were two occasions where it has moved higher for five straight months and 1 time recorded for six straight monthly gains.

Click the image to open in full size.

Intraday support moves to 1.1680, 1.1600/1.1580 and 1.1500.

The daily RSI indicates overbought. If fails at the resistance zone, focus shifts to 1.1620/1.1580 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

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Old Jul 28, 2017, 2:55am   #71
 
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DXY and USDJPY technical forecast

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • The dollar index calls for the maximum thrust across the board.
  • The daily RSI is oversold and the oscillator turns bullish.
  • Q2 GDP data in focus.
  • USDJPY slightly down after Bank of Japan released the July policy meeting summary.

FX outlook:

Before rebound to 94, the DXY tested the 200WEMA on Thursday Asia session. After FOMC statement the dollar crosses USDJPY, USDCHF and USDCAD extended the downside journey on the early Asia trade. Besides, AUDUSD climbs above 0.8050 and NZDUSD climbs above 0.7550.

The dollar index calls for the maximum thrust across the board on European session. The daily RSI is oversold and the oscillator turns bullish. We repeatedly forecast in our earlier articles, it has a support zone remains between 93.30 and 91.90.

Ahead of First estimate of Q2 GDP data, we forecast a dip to be a buying opportunity.

Support finds at 93.50 below this 93.30/93 and 92.60/92.50. Alternatively, resistance seems between 94.30 and 94.50 propels above this 95/95.20 and 95.50 are highly likely.

Click the image to open in full size.

NUTSHELL: Regardless of the GDP data outcome, sooner it will pause the selling.

Potential support zone remains between 93.30 and 93 below this 92.60 and 92 are next in line.

A move below 92.60 needed to re-test the 92 and 91.50, at this point it is likely to change the direction.

USDJPY technical view

USDJPY held the support zone remains between 110.80 and 110.50. In our yesterday’s article, we forecast a buying between 110.80 and 110.50 target at 111.30 and 111.50. It rebounded beyond our target high made at 111.70.

Ahead of the First estimate of US Q2 GDP, support zone finds between 110.80 and 110.50 below this 110.20/109.90. Additional support finds at 109.50.

Alternatively, resistance seems at 111.30 above this 111.70 and 112.20/112.40 are next in line. It has been making lower high pattern, key trigger remains at 112.40.

Until trades below, selling pressure remains at every rise. We remain a buyer below 110 on the medium term perspective. The daily oscillator turns to bullish.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
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Old Jul 31, 2017, 2:48am   #72
 
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FX Weekly 31 July 2017, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • DXY: Bullish reaction expected
  • USDJPY: Parallel support in focus
  • USDCAD: Triple bottom in place
  • USDCHF: Attempting a breakout
  • EURUSD: Testing resistance
  • AUDUSD: Topping in progress
Click the image to open in full size.

Read the complete analysis: http://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-...ANALYSIS-3.pdf

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Old Aug 1, 2017, 3:27am   #73
 
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EURUSD: The bullish momentum pushed the EURUSD above mid-2015 levels

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • The higher lows and higher highs pattern has been printing since February.
  • The bullish momentum pushed the EURUSD above mid-2015 levels

Last week CFTC leveraged positioning data for the week ending 25 July revealed, funds were net sellers of EUR.
According to ANZ research, “net long EUR positions by USD0.5bn to USD0.9bn”

UBS reported in the FX flows report, “EUR most sold”.

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS

Euro area Q2 GDP release and ISM manufacturing index and July US employment report are the key risk events of the week.

Upcoming data:

Tue, Aug 01
Germany Final Manufacturing PMI

EA Prelim Flash GDP QoQ basis

Credit Suisse: GDP release should show output grew by 0.7%q/q in the second quarter.

Wed, Aug 02
July ADP Non-farm employment change

Thu, Aug 03
EA services PMI

ISM Non- Manufacturing PMI

Credit Suisse:
We expect a slight moderation of ISM manufacturing to 57.5

Fri, Aug 04
July US employment report

Credit Suisse:
We expect payrolls growth to maintain its strong trend in July, with headline job gains coming in at 210K.

We expect the unemployment rate to drop to 4.3% after ticking up slightly in June.

We expect wage growth can rise somewhat in the months ahead and forecast a small pickup to 0.3% MoM.

BNP PARIBAS: We expect 205k nonfarm payrolls jobs to be added in July, with the unemployment rate likely to decline to 4.3% from 4.4%.

We forecast that a 0.2% m/m increase in average hourly earnings will take the y/y change down to 2.3% from 2.5%.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


EURUSD break through the multi-year descending trend line and settles above mid-2015 levels. It continues to rally strongly above the trend line finally headed to the resistance zone seems between 1.1875/1.1900 and 1.2040. Last week it saw a strong finish and on a monthly basis rose nearly 4%.

A breakout above 1.2040 July 2014 low, expected to extend 1.2150 50.% (1.3992-1.0340 fall) and 1.2290 its 100.fe (monthly)/1.2330 October 2008 low. On the monthly chart, the oscillator appears inverted H&S pattern aiming at 1.24/1.2500.

It has been moving higher for five straight months, challenging 50MA (monthly) for the first time since August 2014. Since 2008, there were two occasions it has moved higher for five straight months and 1 time recorded for six straight monthly gains (below chart).

The daily RSI indicates overbought. If fails at the resistance zone, focus shifts to 1.1720/1.1680 and 1.1620/1.1580 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
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Old Aug 2, 2017, 5:01am   #74
 
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NZDUSD remains in a bullish trend. Near term pressure remains

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The Kiwi dollar fell 0.65% against the crosses on early Wednesday trade. The Q2 Unemployment rate down but employment drops.

Summary:

Unemployment rate down to 4.8 percent.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.8 percent in the June 2017 quarter down from 4.9 percent in the March 2017 quarter Stats NZ said today.

Employment rate drops to 66.7 percent:

The employment rate fell to 66.7 percent (4,000 fewer people employed) in the June 2017 quarter, down from 67.1 percent in the March 2017 quarter. The drop in employment follows six quarters in which employment rose according to Stats NZ.

Labor cost index:

The labour cost index increased 1.7 percent (year to the June 2017), up from 1.6 percent in the year to March 2017.

Upcoming event:

Thu, 10 August: OCR announcement and Monetary Policy Statement.

NZDUSD Technical view


NZDUSD fell below a small trading range, made a low at 0.7418 whereas a parallel support finds at 0.7400. The near- term support finds between 0.7400 and 0.7375 below this 0.7350 exists.

Today after Q2 employment data the cross re-tested the 200MA(weekly) finds at 0.7418. The daily RSI and oscillator appears bearish.

Alternatively, resistances seems at 0.7465,0.7500 and 0.7525. If settles above 0.7530, the final push expected to 0.77/0.7740 levels.

AUDNZD: Range bound trading expected.

NZDJPY: Spotted with a triple top.

NZDCAD: Spotted a bearish H&S pattern.

EURNZD: Pause the rally at 200WEMA.

GBPNZD: Erased 12-week falling trend line.


Click the image to open in full size.

The medium term support zone remains between 0.7200 and 0.7175.

According to Cameron Bagrie and Phil Borkin at ANZ Research : The market (NZD) has taken the figures negatively. We think that is an overreaction.

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Old Aug 3, 2017, 4:53am   #75
 
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EURGBP: Market participants mainly focus on vote count.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Thursday’s BOE meeting outcome likely to be hawkish. GBP will be in a lime light as Bank of England monetary policy announcement and inflation report on a quarterly basis scheduled today.

We expect the UK monetary policy will remain unchanged again. Market participants mainly focus on vote count.

According to Credit Suisse analysts, “We expect the BoE to keep rates unchanged at 0.25% and the MPC to vote 6-2 for unchanged policy”.

According to Brian Martin at ANZ Research ,” Forward guidance from the BoE has become more balanced and acknowledged the possibility that rates may have to rise”.

The analyst also said in a note, “we can see the argument for taking back last autumn’s 25bps rate cut. Cable is benefitting as a result”.

TECHNICAL VIEW


The other week EURGBP has failed at 0.90 but settles above 61.8% fib (0.9290-0.8300 fall).

Near term, resistance seems between 0.8975 and 0.9010 above this 0.9050 next in line. Supports are finds at 0.8920 and 0.8890. A breakdown below 0.8880, retraces further to 0.8850 and 0.8810. A move below 0.8800 needed to extend the south journey towards 0.8750.

A bullish momentum back to the table if settles above 0.9050. In this case, 0.9090/0.9100 and 0.9150 expected.

Click the image to open in full size.

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