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Old Jun 22, 2017, 5:18am   #46
 
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NZDUSD: lower tops formation limits the upside risk.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


The Kiwi dollar spikes today Asia trade following RBNZ rate statement.



The Reserve Bank of New Zealand today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75 percent. The outcome is widely expected and the NZD was spike initially later squeezed gradually.

RBNZ maintained neutral stance in June statement, a similar statement stated in May.

Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said in the statement, “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly”.

The statement also said, “A lower New Zealand dollar would help rebalance the growth outlook towards the tradables sector”. NZD rose nearly 0.70% following neutral policy outlook.

According to Cameron Bagrie and Philip Borkin at ANZ, We’re sticking to the view the OCR is likely to move up in mid2018, but that’s still a long way off.

TECHNICAL VIEW


NZDUSD continues to fail between 0.7320 and 0.7300, lower tops formation limits the upside risk. On the hourly chart, we can observe a symmetrical triangle (H1) formation. The daily RSI is making a lower high pattern and the oscillator appears bearish.

Click the image to open in full size.

It has potential support finds between 0.7200 and 0.7180 fails to hold likely to retrace to 0.71/0.7090 in the near term.

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Old Jun 23, 2017, 4:52am   #47
 
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Brent: Twice tested the falling trendline, may be building a base.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Oil price recovered a percent on Thursday session, after U.S crude and gasoline stockpiles fell. Crude oil hits 2017 lows on global oversupply, down 22% YTD.

OPEC countries are discussing deepening their production cut agreement, Iran oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said Wednesday reported by Platts.com.

A meeting of the OPEC/non-OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is scheduled in Russia in late July, with the exact venue and date still to be determined.

In a statement distributed by OPEC, the committee said it “took note of the recent market development and expressed confidence that the oil market is moving in the right direction.”

TECHNICAL VIEW


Brent oil price made another bearish week (fifth consecutive week), bearish breakdown through early May support.

Brent twice tested the falling trendline, may be building a base. As we forecast on Tuesday (June 20) it has pause the relentless selling at 100.0 daily fe finds at 44.30, low made at 44.20.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the medium term potential support finds at 44.30/44 and 43.50 below this 42.70$ its 50.0% fib and 39$ its 61.8% exists.

In the near-term perspective, bullish confirmation not yet available but we are a buyer on a pattern breakout if visible on the hourly chart.

Click the image to open in full size.

Propel above 45.70 will rebound to 46 and 46.30. Support finds at 44.80, 44.40 and 44.20/44. The daily RSI is oversold, appears a limited downside risk.

46.50 is the key level to breach in case of a rebound.


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Old Jun 26, 2017, 1:51am   #48
 
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Brent: The target on a breakout is 47.60, 49 and 50$ initially.

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TECHNICAL VIEW


Oil was higher on Thursday and Friday sessions off nearly 3% from weekly lows. Brent oil price made another bearish week (fifth consecutive week), bearish breakdown through early May support.

Despite ongoing cuts, oil crude is still set for the worst first-half decline in two decades, reported by Reuters. Crude oil hits 2017 lows on global oversupply, down 22% YTD.

The price so far and tested the 100.fe and managed to hold, a gradual recovery expected.

Brent twice tested the falling trendline, may be building a base.

In the medium term, potential support finds at 44.30/44 and 43.50 below this 42.70$ its 50.0% fib and 39$ its 61.8% exists.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the near-term perspective, bullish confirmation not yet available but we are a buyer on a pattern breakout if visible on the hourly chart. On the four hour chart, the price is trading on a verge of Ascending triangle. The target on a breakout is 47.60, 49 and 50$ initially.

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Old Jun 27, 2017, 2:33am   #49
 
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EURUSD: Leveraged funds’ positioning in EUR turned short again

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The lower high formation confirms the limited upside risk in the near term.This week’s trend cast on EZ CPI data.

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS

Review of the previous week data:
PMI was the only major event we had from the EZ last week.

• Germany PPI fell by 0.2% in May 2017 vs +0.4 in Apri.
• Flash estimate of the consumer confidence indicator increased markedly in both the EA (+2.0 points to -1.3) and the EU (+1.1 points to -2.2) compared to May. French Flash Manufacturing PMI rises to 55.0 2-month high vs 53.8 in May.
• French Flash Services PMI decreased to 55.3, 5-month low vs 57.2 in May
• German Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 59.3, 2-month low vs 59.5 in May.
• German Flash Services PMI fell to 53.7, 5-month low vs 55.4 in May.
• Flash Manufacturing PMI 57.3, 74-month high vs 57.0 in May.
• Flash Services PMI 54.7,5-month low vs 56.3 in May.
• The Germany Ifo business climate index rose to 115.1 from 114.6 in May.

Upcoming data:

Wed, June 28

M3 money supply: The growth likely to ease slightly.
Uni Credit: In May, the yearly growth rate of broad money is likely to ease slightly to 4.8%

Thu, June 29
EZ Inflation: likely to decline further, far below the ECB’s medium-term target.
UniCredit: Headline inflation likely further decelerated in June, falling to 1.2% yoy from 1.4% in the wake of lower energy costs. We expect core inflation to rise 0.1pp to 1.0% yoy.
Capital Economics: Likely to reveal a further fall in the headline rate of inflation to just 1.2%.

FX Positioning: According to IMM data for the week ended 20 June, leveraged funds’ positioning
in EUR turned short again (to 13% from long of 6% last week). Asset managers’ net long positioning in EUR fell to 41% from 42% last week reported by Nomura.

TECHNICAL VIEW

We maintain our sideways outlook in the near term and retain the medium term bullish forecast.
Since a month, the price action remains between 1.11 and 1.13, facing strong resistance at 20DMA on a closing basis.
The daily RSI indicating a lower but oscillator has turned bullish, further consolidation may be necessary.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the near term, potential support finds between 1.1120/1.11 and 1.1070. Below this selling pressure accelerates for 1.1020/1.10. Alternatively, resistance seems at 1.1170, 1.1220 and 1.1300.
In additional between 1.0950 and 1.0850 offers a best buying opportunity in the medium term.
The price has already retraced 23.6% (1.0569 and 1.13) fails to handle eventually focus shifts to 38.2% 1.1020.


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Old Jun 28, 2017, 2:31am   #50
 
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EUR technical overview against CHF and USD

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Comments from Draghi raised bullish bets on the Euro pushed the EURUSD to a ten-month high 1.1350 rose 1.50%.

Draghi said” All the signs now point to a strengthening and broadening recovery in the euro area. Deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones”.

In his speech, he also said, “As the economy continues to recover, a constant policy stance will become more accommodative, and the central bank can accompany the recovery by adjusting the parameters of its policy instruments”.

TECHNICAL VIEW

EURUSD gave a bullish breakout closed above 1.1300 for the second time ever since Brexit.
It made a high at 1.1350, parallel resistance seems at 1.1365 and 1.1425.
The 100.0 weekly fe seems at 1.1430 and weekly parallel resistance seems at 1.1465.
Propels above 1.1370 upturn expected for 1.14, 1.1420 and 1.1460.
Support finds at 1.1270, 1.1200 and 1.1100.
Trading range moved to 1.1460 and 1.1270 from 1.1100 and 1.1300.
RSI on the four-hour chart is overbought and the daily RSI indicating a lower high.
Fails to breach 1.1370 likely to retrace to 1.1300 and 1.1280 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

EURCHF: Trading on a verge of bullish breakout.


The cross is trading on a verge of bullish breakout through a descending triangle on the four-hour chart.
Comments from Draghi raised bullish bets on the Euro pushed higher across the board.
It has parallel resistance seems at 1.0908 it’s 50.0% (May high-1.0830 low) and 100.fe at 1.09, as of now high was 1.0895.
Since mid-May, the cross has been facing resistance at 100WEMA.
The daily Oscillator appears bullish.
Propels above 1.0915 further headroom expected for 1.0930 and 1.0950.
In the near term, resistance seems at 1.09/1.0915 and 1.0950 levels.
Alternatively, support finds at 1.0860, 1.0840 and 1.0800.
Selling the breakout is the favorable theme in the near term.

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Old Jun 29, 2017, 3:05am   #51
 
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USDCAD: Key support zone remains between 1.30 and 1.2960.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Hawkish BoC shifts, oil price rebound and a softer USD are the key drivers to CAD in past few weeks. In the commodity currency space, USDCAD continues to dig lower as Poloz’s comments added fuel to loonie bulls.
Recent Canada economic data is encouraging and Bank of Canada being more positive on the domestic growth outlook. Upcoming BOC meeting on July 18th is crucial.

TECHNICAL VIEW


USDCAD has retraced near 1.30 and trading below 100WEMA. It gave a bearish breakdown through two-year ascending trendline.

Near-term support finds at 1.30 and the 61.8% (1.2462-1.3793 rally) finds at 1.2960 rounded. The daily RSI is oversold and the oscillator is bullish. We forecast the selling pressure likely to arrest between 1.30 and 1.2960 levels. In this case, 1.3160 and 1.3220 are the destinations expected.
Intraday support: 1.3000, 1.2960 and 1.2900.

Click the image to open in full size.

A breakdown below 1.2960 now signals a further leg down to 1.2830/1.28, 1.2730 and 1.2500/1.2470 in the medium term.

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Old Jun 30, 2017, 4:40am   #52
 
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Gold: Near term trend remains sideways. Closing the quarter on a neutral note.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread TECHNICAL VIEW

The trading range remains between 1259$ and 1235$ even the soft USD fails to cheer the Gold. Before retrace to 200DMA it has spotted with a double top at 1296 and aggressive sell-off drags the yellow metal to a month low.

Today on Asia trade, Gold prices are trading at 1247$ marginally higher, manages to hold 200DEMA. It is closing the quarter on a neutral note besides, DXY closing with 5% losses.

The 200DMA push the price to 1258$ but failed at 50DMA.

In the near term, it has a support finds at 1239.80$, 1235$ and 1230$ whereas in the medium term 1214$ and 1195$ exists.

On the hourly chart, the price spotted trading in a symmetrical triangle and trading on a verge of ascending triangle breakout. The daily oscillator remains bullish.

Click the image to open in full size.

Near term resistance seems at 1255$, 1259$ and 1264$, Bulls can feel comfortable only after crossing 1260$ decisively.But this didn’t bring immediate joy, but it brings lasting joy later on if propels above 1264$.

Alternatively a breakdown below 1230$ now signals a further leg down to 1215$ and 1199$.

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Old Jul 3, 2017, 4:02am   #53
 
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USDMXN: Trading Idea. Support base remains between 17.90 and 17.80

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread USDMXN has been consolidating for four straight days. It has finally settled above 20DMA for the first time since May 02. It has been rallying nearly 4% over the past month and 19.0% year-to-date.

The daily RSI is bullish and Oscillator appear an inverted H&S pattern
On the four chart, it has breakout a minor trading range.

Click the image to open in full size.

Support base remains between 17.90 and 17.80.
The price is trading on a verge five-month descending trendline breakout.

Click the image to open in full size.

A breakout above the trendline aims for 18.25 and 18.50 in the near term.
Bulls can feel comfortable only after settle above 18.30 to aim further head room.
Until the cross hold 17.80 on a daily closing basis use a dip to buy is the best theme.
Alternatively, a breakdown below 17.80 accelerates the selling pressure again to 17.30 and 16.80.


FX positioning:

According to Nick Verdi and Mike Moran at Standard Chartered, “USD-MXN positioning has tracked this outperformance, with short positions close to historical extremes”.

ANZ Research reported the CFTC leveraged positioning for the week ending 27 June 2017, “MXN saw net buying of USD0.9bn, reversing net selling of USD1.3bn in the previous week”.

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Last edited by KeyToMarketsUK; Jul 3, 2017 at 4:27am.
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Old Jul 4, 2017, 6:29am   #54
 
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EURUSD: Funds turned bullish on the EUR.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • The ECB President Mr Draghi sounded optimistic on the EU growth outlook.
  • EU growth outlook has improved and markets are preparing for higher interest rates.
  • The ECB was likely to start winding back its bond-buying program as early as September.


FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


Following the hawkish interpretation of President Draghi’s speech markets have brought forward the first ECB’s rate hike to 2018 September.


Review of the previous week data:
  • German Ifo Business Climate 115.1 vs 114.6
  • The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 stood at 5.0% in May 2017, after 4.9% in April 2017.
  • GfK predicts an increase in consumer climate of 0.2 points to 10.6 points for July compared to the previous month.
  • Germany consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.2% on May 2017.
  • Germany May turnover was in real terms 0.5% and in nominal terms 0.3% larger than that in April 2017.
  • Euro area annual inflation down to 1.3%.
  • Spanish manufacturing sector rose to 7, signals further solid expansion at end of Q2.
  • Italy Manufacturing PMI improves slightly to 55.2, sees a strong finish to 2Q.
  • French Manufacturing sector posted8 in June to signal a further improvement.
  • Germany Manufacturing PMI rose for the sixth time in seven months in June, posting 59.6, up from 59.5 in May.
  • Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 57.4 in June, hits a 74-month

Upcoming data:


Tue, July 04
EZ PPI: Downside surprise expected

Wed, July 05
Italy Services PMI: Ease slightly

UniCredit: We expect the services PMI to ease slightly in June, to 54.8.

EZ Retail sales: Upside surprise expected 0.4% vs 0.1%.

Thu, July 06
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts.

Fri, July 07
Germany IP

UniCredit: We expect industrial production to decelerate in May to +0.1% mom.

French IP

UniCredit: We forecast a 0.7% mom increase, after -0.5% mom in April.

In the U.S we got FOMC meeting minutes of the June 14 FOMC meeting and NFP. As the week pack with high-risk events, volatility will be higher than normal trading conditions.

FOMC meeting minutes (July 5)
Market participants look for clues on the next rate hike hints and beginning of the balance sheet normalization.

NFP (July 07)
UniCredit forecast “Nonfarm payrolls likely rose a more solid 170,000 in June and the jobless rate likely stabilized at 4.3%”.

According to Barclays, “We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 185k in June. We look for average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% m/m (2.6% y/y), a faster increase than in the previous month”.



FX POSITIONING:


Following the hawkish interpretation of President Draghi’s speech, funds turned bullish on the EUR.

ANZ Research reported the CFTC leveraged positioning for the week ending 27 June 2017, “Leveraged funds reduced their net short EUR positions by USD1bn to USD1.5bn”.

SEB reported Investors were net buyers of EUR against the dollar.



TECHNICAL VIEW


It has off nearly 10% from Jan 2017 low, trading on a verge of 22-month descending trendline.

Before retracing to 1.1355 on Monday session, EURUSD spotted with a double top at 1.1445. It has parallel resistance seems at 1.1465 above this 1.1500 and 1.1535 are next in line. For intraday trading purpose resistance seems at 1.1390/1.14 and 1.1465.

Alternatively, support finds at 1.1350 and 1.1290/1.1270. Settles below 1.1290/1.1270 the selling pressure accelerates to 1.1210/1.1210 and 1.1100 in the near term.

This week’s trading range remains between 1.1535 and 1.1270. We can expect a near-term top around 1.1535 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Jul 5, 2017, 6:39am   #55
 
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JPY crosses are overly stretched. JPY technical overview against AUD and CHF.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread JPY trading higher against crosses following June Services PMI. Service sector growth accelerates to a 22-month high.

Business Activity Index edged up to 53.3 in June, from 53.0 in May, pointed to a solid rise in service sector activity.

AUDJPY, CHFJPY,EURJPY, and NZDJPY are spotted with lower high patterns on the hourly chart. The price action of JPY crosses seems JPY is oversold sold.

According to Ran RenScott and Dingman Strategist at Citi FX, “Strong Investor JPY outflows ahead of election could mean reversal in sight”.

The strategists also said in a note to clients, “JPY has yet to rally post-election and that investors could be stretched short the currency, suggests JPY buying in the near-term”.

AUDJPY TECHNICAL VIEW


Following RBA policy statement, AUD was beaten down on Tuesday session. It has a parallel support finds at 85.85 and the near-term trading range remains between 87 and 85.85. The daily RSI and oscillator appear bearish.

Near-term resistance seems at 86.20, 86.55 and 87. To escape further correction bulls needs to hold 85.85 on a closing basis and must propel above 86.50 to aim for 87 (previous high) above this 87.50 and 88 possible.

Alternatively, a breakdown below 85.60 aims to 85 and 84.60.

Click the image to open in full size.

The higher time frames are bullish a pullback in the near-term is a buying opportunity.

Click the image to open in full size.

CHFJPY TECHNICAL VIEW


The cross spotted with a triple top seems (daily chart) between 111.78 and 111.75.
On the hourly chart, it has spotted with a bearish H&S pattern and breakdown through ascending triangle.
The daily RSI appears overbought and Oscillator shifting to bearish.
Near-term support finds at 117, 116.60 and 116.
The selling accelerates below 115.90 to 115.50 and 115.
Until the cross remains below 117.80, near term downside risk forecast to 116.50 and 116.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the extreme case a retest of earlier breakout level 115.50 is highly likely.
Alternatively, settles above 118 aims for 119/119.15 and 119.90.

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Old Jul 6, 2017, 6:19am   #56
 
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Gold: Price sensitive buying action available between 1200-1180.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Gold trading down at five-week low on the stronger USD. The price manages to hold the 100WMA below this 1214 it’s parallel support exists at 1214.

Following FOMC minutes, gold off from intraday low. Near term support remains between 1217 and 1214, a breakdown below the parallel support could trade down further to 1207 and 1200/1198$. Additional support finds at 1194.90 March-2017 low.

Risk events:

ADP employment report:

Nomura: We expect ADP to report an increase of 160k in private payrolls for June (Consensus: 185k).

NFP:

Standard Chartered: Expect a strong employment report and forecast non-farm payrolls (NFP) at 210,000 (well above the consensus of 183,000).

UniCredit forecast “Nonfarm payrolls likely rose a more solid 170,000 in June and the jobless rate likely stabilized at 4.3%”.

According to Barclays, “We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 185k in June. We look for average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% m/m (2.6% y/y), a faster increase than in the previous month”.

TECHNICAL VIEW


Near term key trigger exists at 1214, settles below this confirm the distribution pattern and a deeper correction possible in the medium term. The trading range breakdown of 82$ comes to limelight if 1214 taken out. This forecast strengthens if a breakdown below 1180 confirmed. Due to oversold RSI the selling likely to be arrested between 1214 and 1198 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

Alternatively resistance seems at 1230/1232 and 1236. Selling pressure remains in play until trading below 1236. If propel above, then 1240, 1245 and 1249 possible.

In our last week article, we forecast “leg down to 1215$ and 1199$” it has made a low at 1217.45.

NUTSHELL: A price sensitive buying action available between 1200-1180. If Fed rate hike expectations are scaled back, positive development in the price action is highly likely.

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Old Jul 7, 2017, 11:05am   #57
 
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June NFP preview. Technical view of DXY and EURUSD.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread DXY resumes the down trend fails at 61.8% fib (91.90-103.80 rally).
EUR was the winner on Thursday session following ECB minutes.
A soft ADP data pointing the same pace in NFP as well but Nomura models forecast an another strong month of payroll employment
Market participants focus will be on whether wages are rising,


Upcoming events:

US non-farm data tonight is the risk event for FX markets. The June nonfarm payroll report is the first of three jobs reported before the FOMC Monetary Policy meeting.



Standard Chartered: Expect a strong employment report and forecast non-farm payrolls (NFP) at 210,000 (well above the consensus of 183,000).

UniCredit forecast “Nonfarm payrolls likely rose a more solid 170,000 in June and the jobless rate likely stabilized at 4.3%”.

According to Barclays, “We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 185k in June. We look for average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% m/m (2.6% y/y), a faster increase than in the previous month”.

JP Morgan Chase: US non-farm employment in June is expected to increase by 150,000, the average hourly wage rose 0.3%, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%.

Nomura: Our models and incoming data uniformly point to another strong month of payroll employment gains. June likely saw another strong month of jobs growth. We expect a 165k increase in nonfarm payroll employment, similar to the average pace of the past six months (161k) and above the sustainable pace.The unemployment rate in June to remain unchanged from May’s at 4.3%.

TECHNICAL VEIW


DXY resumes the down trend fails at the 61.8% fib (91.90-103.80 rally). The daily RSI and Oscillator indicates it has a limited downside. Especially against CHF (lower yield currency) buying on a dip favors the risk reward ratio. We have been recommending buying USDCHF and remains to the same strategy. A healthy payroll data will add extra strength to our bullish USDCHF view.

Before retrace to 95.80 in Thursday session, it has spotted with a bearish H&S pattern and the same can visible on USDCHF (already broken down)and USDJPY (not yet) charts as well (H1).

Support finds at 95.70/95.50, 95.20 and 94.90.

Click the image to open in full size.

To escape further correction, bulls need to propel above 96.50 it’s 61.8% (91.90-103.80 rally) to aim at 97.90 it’s 50.0%.

Click the image to open in full size.

EURUSD TECHNICAL VIEW

The euro was the star on Thursday session as ECB minutes show officials discussed dropping easing bias at its June meeting. The euro rallied against major currencies establishing higher low patterns.

Comments from ECB officials reported by Westpac: Villeroy said that the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy is “not eternal”; Nowotny said QE is not a permanent policy tool; Weidmann said the recovery opens the door to normalisation; and Praet said confidence in the recovery is on a stronger footing.

According to Nomura analysts, “We believe the ECB is still on course to announce in September that a QE tapering campaign will commence next January”.

Yesterday’s move fails to erase the last week’s double top at 1.1445 above this parallel resistance seems at 1.1465. Additional resistance seems at 1.1500 and 1.1535 are next in line. Support finds at 1.1390, 1.1350 and 1.1310/1.1300. Settles below 1.1300 confirms the distribution pattern and the selling pressure accelerates.

This week’s trading range remains between 1.1535 and 1.1300. We can expect a near-term top around 1.1535 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Jul 10, 2017, 2:16am   #58
 
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Brent: Support zone remains between 46.50 and 46.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Brent oil fell more than 3% on Friday session, retrace more than 61.8% (44.20-49.70 rally). The price dropped on concerns about high US output.

U.S drillers added seven oil rigs brings the total up to 763, Baker Hughes announced on Friday.

Today, on Asia early trade Bren trading with 0.45% gains, high 47$.

According to Interfax, OPEC Secretary-General Balkin said that it would be premature to discuss the possibility of continued production cuts at a regular meeting of the Commission on July 24, reported by Wallstreet cn.

TECHNICAL VIEW


Before retrace to more than 61.8%(44.20-49.70 rally) it has rejected twice at 50DMA. The price completed the ABC pattern target completed, near term support zone remains between 46.50 and 46.00 (rounded). The earlier minor breakout level finds at 45.70 below this 45.30 and 44.90 are next in line.

Immediate resistance seems between 47-47.30 above this 47.60 and 48 exists.

A bullish reversal expected if settles above 47.30 aims for 47.60, 48 and 49/49.20 levels.

Until the price holds the 61.8% we expect a consolidation phase for the next 1-2 days followed by a breakout.

The trading pattern edge down to 46.30/46 and 47.50 earlier was 49-46.50. A break down below 46 another leg down to 45.50 and 44.95.

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Old Jul 11, 2017, 2:00am   #59
 
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EURUSD: Final push looms. Selling interest available at June high’s.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Before retrace to 1.1380 it ran into resistance at 1.1450 failed again last week. Selling interest available at June high’s.

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS

Following the hawkish interpretation of President Draghi’s speech markets have brought forward the first ECB’s rate hike to 2018 September.
The ECB was likely to start winding back its bond-buying program as early as September.
Recent Draghi’s speech raised bets about a more hawkish ECB.

Review of the previous week data:
• Spanish manufacturing sector rose to 54.7, signals further solid expansion at end of Q2.
• Italy Manufacturing PMI improves slightly to 55.2, sees a strong finish to 2Q.
• French Manufacturing sector posted 54.8 in June to signal a further improvement.
• Germany Manufacturing PMI rose for the sixth time in seven months in June, posting 59.6, up from 59.5 in May.
• Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 57.4 in June, hits a 74-month.
• EZ Unemployment Rate 9.3% vs 9.3%
• Industrial producer prices down by 0.4% in both EA and EU.
• Germany Services PMI 54.0 vs 53.7.
• EZ Services PMI 55.4 vs 54.7.
• EZ Retail Sales 0.4% vs 0.1%
• Germany Industrial Production 1.2% vs 0.7%.
• Germany trade balance recorded a surplus of 20.3 billion euros in May 2017.

Upcoming data:
• Tue, July 11
Italy IP forecast 0.5% vs -0.4%.
UniCredit: We expect industrial production to have increased by 0.5% mom in May
• Wed, July 12
EZ IP forecast 1.0% vs 0.5%
• Thu, July 13
German final CPI forecast 0.2% vs 0.2%
French final CPI forecast 0.0% vs 0.0%
• Fri, July 14
EZ Trade balance forecast 20.3B vs 19.6B

TECHNICAL VIEW

EURUSD ran into resistance at 1.1450 failed again last week, above this 1.1465 and 1.1500 are next in line.
The near term trading range remains in a narrow range between 1.1450 and 1.1310 rounded to 1.13. It has a potential support finds at between 1.1310 and 1.1270 fails to hold 1.12/1.1170 is highly possible. A final push expected if propel above 1.1465 aims for 1.15 and 1.1530 levels.
For an intraday purpose, Supports find at 1.1380/1.1370 below this 1.1330 and 1.300 exists. Settles below 1.1300 confirms the distribution pattern and the selling pressure accelerates.

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This week’s price actions cast on Yellen’s testimonies to both chambers of Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

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Old Jul 12, 2017, 2:57am   #60
 
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Take profits on AUDNZD, EURNZD and NZDUSD trades.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread NZD was beaten down across the board on Tuesday session, especially against ANZ, EUR and USD fell a percent.

AUDNZD

We repeatedly recommended “buying AUDNZD” now it’s time to take profits. The cross gave a large trading range breakout on Tuesday, currently trading at 1.0580 on Wednesday Asia session. It has spotted with an inverted H&S pattern and completed the pattern target 1.0580.

Near-term resistance zone seems at 1.0590/1.0615 above this 1.0640 and 1.0680 exists. Supports finds at 1.0550/1.0530, 1.0480 and 1.0400.

If settles above 1.615, it has a potential to extend the run up to 1.0670/1.0680 and 1.0730.

Click the image to open in full size.

NZDUSD

Settles far below 20DMA.
Retrace beyond 23.6% (0.6817-0.7345 rally).
ABC pattern target finished.
The cross fell nearly a percent and settles far below 20DMA for the first time after mid-May.

Ever since we raised a cautious view at 0.7350 the cross has traded down in line with our bearish view. It has spotted with a double top and lower lows patterns.

Finally, a breakdown finished the ABC pattern journey. The cross made a low at 0.72, manages to hold the 200MA on the hourly chart. It has a support zone available between 0.7185 and 0.7170. Resistance seems at 0.7245/0.7255 above this 0.7300 exists.

A large trading range breakdown is highly likely if 0.7170 taken off. In this case, 0.7120/0.7100 and 0.7050 expected.

For the medium term perspective, 0.7080 and 0.7050 are the potential supports available (earlier breakout zone).

Click the image to open in full size.

EURNZD

The eight-day consolidation phase finally ends with a breakout on Tuesday, settles far above 50DMA. It has rebound nearly 62% of the earlier fall (1.6235-1.5235).

Initially, we recommended a buying trade at 1.54 again recommended at 1.5650 and 1.5750 for 1.5950/1.6000 in the near term. As per the ABC pattern, it has a potential to fly up to 1.60/1.6010. The cross made a high at 1.5895 and we recommend to take profit.

The RSI and oscillator on the hourly (H1 and H4) charts appear extremely overbought.

Click the image to open in full size.

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