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Old May 23, 2017, 5:17am   #25
 
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Brent: Resistance seems between 54.30-54.50$

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Oil price hits a highest more than a month.
OPEC meeting on May 25th in focus.
Brent oil enters resistance zone.


FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


Traders are anticipating that OPEC output cuts are likely to be extended nine months. Oil price continues to climb after major sell-off triggered on the other Friday (May 05), rose nearly 17% from early May lows.

Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they have agreed to extend output cuts for further nine months, until March 2018.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said on Sunday that “extending the supply cuts by a further nine months until next March, and adding one or two small producers to the pact, should reduce oil inventories to their five-year average” reported by Reuters.

OPEC meets this Thursday, May 25. Market participants expected that production cut will be extended for nine months. Earlier on November 30, 2016, OPEC reached its first deal to cut oil production since 2008. The deal cut oil production from OPEC members by 1.2 million barrels a day.

Analyst at Nomura forecast ‘OPEC likely to extend cuts”. In a Nomura research note, the analyst also forecast “We see scope for continued oil price support if an extension is agreed on, and think oil prices have a few more months of positive narrative before US production concerns resurface”.

CFTC leveraged positioning: Net long crude oil positions fell for the consecutive week despite a pick-up in prices, reported By ANZ.

According to the Reuters, “OPEC and other oil producers are on course to agree on an extension of supply cuts at a meeting on Thursday, with Saudi Arabia saying most participants are on board with the plan to rein in a global supply glut.”



TECHNICAL VIEW


Crude oil prices continue to climb to one-month high as optimism over OPEC meeting (May 25) are growing. The bulls strength was sapped after rebounds more than 17% from early May 05 lows.


Before climbing higher to 100DMA on Monday session, the price rejected at 52.40 (last week). But we forecast 53.70$, as a result, the price move above our target price made a high at 54.20 enters to supply zone.

We have been recommending to buy oil price for about a month, this theme generated good returns over near term. Despite the sharp sell-off, the theme remains bullish over medium term.

The price gave an inverted H&S pattern breakout on the four-hour chart last week, but facing strong resistance at 100DMA. Parallel resistance seems at 54.30 Feb 08 low above this falling trend line in focus (daily).

Click the image to open in full size.

The daily RSI and Oscillator are remained bullish however on the four-hour chart they are overbought. Ahead of the OPEC meeting, charts are giving a mixed signal.

If the price fails to settle above 54.30, retracement expected to earlier breakout level or neckline finds at 52.40/52.60 below this 52/51.80 and 51.20/51 expected. Additional support levels finds at 50.80 and 50.40. Further bullish confirmation available if the price settles above 54.50 then 55,55.40 and 55.90/56 expected.

Click the image to open in full size.

NUTSHELL: Resistance moved to 54.30-54.50 earlier was 52.60-52.40. A re-test of year’s high is highly likely.



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Old May 23, 2017, 1:21pm   #26
 
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KeyToMarketsUK started this thread [EURUSD Weekly Market Profile]

The Point Of Control (POC) from last weeks stands at 1.1110.

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Old May 24, 2017, 2:06am   #27
 
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USDCHF: Buying opportunity available at year’s lowest level

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • The relentless dollar selling finally pause.
  • USDCHF respects 200WEMA.
  • One and two-year trend lines in focus.
  • Symmetrical triangle breakout on H1.
TECHNICAL VIEW

Before 3% retracement in eight sessions, USDCHF rejected twice at 20WMA extend the losses on the third straight month. The cross rejected four times at 100EMA (monthly) finally settles below 20MA(monthly) as well.

In our last week’s article, we forecast “0.9750 and 0.9720/0.9700 if bulls fail at 100WMA” the price made a low at 0.9690 and changed the direction. The immediate support finds at 0.9660 its 100MA (monthly).

Currently, we change the stance from selling to buying as the hourly charts forming a base between 0.97 and 0.9690. Overnight the price gave a breakout through symmetrical triangle on the hourly chart.

Click the image to open in full size.

The price is trading neutral at 0.9758 on early Asia session (May 24) trying to give an another upside breakout through the lower end of the falling channel (daily). We expect the rally might extend for 0.9800/0.9820 initially, later 0.9850 expected.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the extreme case 0.9950 expected, we will analyze once the price settles above 0.9850. Over near-term support finds at 0.9700/0.9690 and 0.9660 these are demand zones or buyers zone.

Click the image to open in full size.

In a scary situation, if dollar index loose the breaks again, we forecast around 0.9550 USDCHF offers longer term support.

Trade: A buying opportunity available at year’s lowest level

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Old May 25, 2017, 3:46am   #28
 
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EURUSD offers room for downward correction over near term

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Spotted with a double top, resistance seems between 1.1270 and 1.1300.
Trading range remains between 1.1160 and 1.1300.
Extended euro longs.
Room for downward correction over near term.

Data Review:

GfK predicts the consumer climate to reach 10.4 points in its forecast for June, which is 0.2 points higher than in May.

Upcoming data:

Given the lack of EUR macroeconomic data it is understandably a quiet day in the markets today. Things should pick up rapidly by tomorrow however as we have a number of high-impact U.S data releases to look forward to, starting with the U.S unemployment claims and U.S Prelim GDP QoQ basis.

Friday,May 26
U.S Prelim GDP QoQ basis

HSBC: We expect Q1 GDP growth to be revised up to 0.9% at an annualised rate, up from the initial release of 0.7%.

U.S April Durable goods orders

HSBC: We forecast that durable goods orders fell 1.6% in April and core durable goods orders rose 0.5%.

TECHNICAL VIEW


Deutsche Bank: Dollar selling was the dominant theme this week, as funds extended euro longs.

The weaker US dollar and less euro area political risk offers decent support to the EUR. Focus is shifting to the central bank meetings in June.

Bulls strength sacked at 1.1270 rounded it’s 161.8 daily fe above this 1.1300 are the other potential resistance exists. Over near term, there is a room for downside correction as the daily RSI printing lower high.

Click the image to open in full size.

On the downside potential support finds between 1.1180 and 1.1160 below this selling pressure accelerates for 1.1100/1.1075 and 1.1020 in the extreme case.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old May 26, 2017, 2:41am   #29
 
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USDCAD manages to hold the 50.0% (Jan-May rally). CAD likely to outperform.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • The tone of the BOC (May 24)assessment appears to be more upbeat.
  • USDCAD manages to hold the 50.0% (Jan-May rally).
  • Oil is expected to trade flat, with risks rising in 2018.

USDCAD made a low at 1.2460 a year ago, rose 61.8% (1.4689-1.2460 fall). As the CAD bearish sentiment eases slightly, USDCAD risk available to the downside.

Recent Canada economic data is encouraging and Bank of Canada being more positive on the domestic growth outlook.

BOC said “The Canadian economy’s adjustment to lower oil prices is largely complete and recent economic data have been encouraging, including indicators of business investment”.

According to Nomura, “CAD has been supported by the BoC being more positive on the domestic growth outlook”.

Deutsche Bank: We continue to expect the BoC to hike just once this year, most likely in Q4.

But Morgan Stanley has a contrarian view, “Stable BoC policy and limited developments in oil markets failing to provide a directional short-term catalyst”.

In a research note to clients, Dara Blume Strategist at Morgan Stanley said “We argue that headwinds to Canadian output growth and continued labor market slack will keep inflation low, forcing the BoC to stay on hold while the output gap closes by mid-2018 on the BoC’s estimates”.

The upcoming Canadain economic events outcome likely provide a clear picture over medium term price action.

Risk events:

Tue, May 30

Current account

Wed, May 31

GDP

Deutsche Bank: We expect Q1 real GDP growth to show a 3.5% annualized gain

Fri, June 02

Trade Balance

Besides, we got May ADP employment (June 01) and Non- Farm Payrolls (June 03).



TECHNICAL VIEW


Ahead of the key events volatility likely to accelerate and trading range remains between 1.33/1.3250 and 1.36/1.3620.

On Thursday session, the price respects the parallel support available at 1.3387 rebounds nearly 100 pips but fails to close at 50DMA. If settles above 1.35 earlier swing high seem at 1.3535 and 1.3590/1.36 are the potential resistance exists to test the bulls.
Additional selling available below 1.3350 for 1.3300 and 1.3260 as the daily and even at higher time frames oscillator remains bearish.

Click the image to open in full size.

Over near term, the price has the nearest support zone remains between 1.3387-1.3350 below this 1.3260-1.3250 exists.


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Old May 29, 2017, 4:41am   #30
 
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Gold: Price action triggered multiple bullish developments ahead of huge events.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
TECHNICAL VIEW


Gold price ended last week on a bullish note, extend the gains for a third consecutive week. The price closed above all daily and weekly moving averages, which confirms the continuation of the bullish trend in the coming weeks.

Recently, we have been providing bullish views on precious metal space (Gold and Silver) and we are expecting more headroom available over the medium term. On the lower and higher time frames, there are multiple bullish developments triggered.We initialed “bargain hunting” on May 11th later medium targets forecast for 1271-1274$, 1280, 1288, 1295 and 1314$.
According to the CFTC leveraged positioning for the week ending May 23, 2017, net long gold positions picked up after four consecutive weeks of net selling.

Along with the bullish factors, we got one bearish factor aswell.

Bullish Developments:
  • On the hour chart, the price settles above symmetrical triangle.
  • On the four hour chart, inverted H&S pattern breakout visible. The pattern target aims for 1278$ and April high 1295$ until holding above 1247$. The price erases the five-month descending trendline, eleven-month trendline in focus around 1280-1282$.
  • On the daily and weekly charts, the price settles above all moving averages.
  • The other week, the price spotted with a Golden cross (May 17).

Bearish factor: On the four-hour chart, the price action spotted with a negative divergence. Parallel resistance seems at 1271.

If the price fails to surpass 1271, the negative divergence likely to drag the price to support levels 1263, 1259 and 1252. Alternatively, clearing above 1271 aim for 1278 and 1295 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

Key data and events scheduled this week :

Fri, Jun 02

U.S May employment report

Barclays forecast, “We expect nonfarm and private payrolls to rise by 175k (cons.: 176k; last: 211k) and 170k (cons.: 171k; last: 194k) respectively, and we look for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.4% (cons./last: 4.4%). We and consensus forecast average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% m/m.

RBC Capital Markets forecast ,”we expect headline and private NFP to come in at 200K for the month. The unemployment rate should remain unchanged at 4.4%
following a sharp tick lower last month.”

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Old May 30, 2017, 5:08am   #31
 
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EURUSD- Fell below the 100 pips trading range, what to watch now.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread French election outcome and latest data releases in the euro area continues to support the EUR. We forecast near-term depreciation, as investors focus shifting to the central bank meetings in June.

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


Review of the previous week data: Flash Services PMI increases in EZ, Germany, and France.

M3 decreased to 4.9% in April 2017, from 5.3% in March.
GfK predicts German consumer climate to reach 10.4 points in its forecast for June, which is 0.2 points higher than in May.
Flash EZ Services PMI slightly falls to 56.2 vs 56.4 in April, 2-month low.
Flash EZ Manufacturing PMI increases to 57.0 vs 56.7 in April, a 73-month
Flash Germany Services PMI falls to at 55.2 vs 55.4 in April, 3-month low.
Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI increases to 59.4 vs 58.2 in April, a 73-month
Flash France Services PMI increases to 58.0 vs 56.7 in April, 72-month
Flash France Manufacturing PMI falls to 54.0 vs 55.1 in April, 2-month low.

Upcoming data:

Key data releases for this week include May inflation in the Eurozone (May 31), and the US May labour market report (Jun 02). We do not expect inflation data will accelerate the market volatility ahead of the US labor data (June 02) and next week ECB meeting. (June 08)

Wed, May 31

Germany

CPI YoY basis

Core CPI

Analysts forecast EA inflation likely to fall back moderately along with core CPI. The following are the analyst’s forecast:

UniCredit: Headline inflation will probably decline to 1.5% YoY from 1.9% and Core inflation is likely to drop back towards 0.9-1.0%.

RBC Capital Markets: we expect the headline rate to fall back to 1.6% y/y from April’s 1.9%. we Would expect core inflation to fall back to 0.9–1.0% this month, approximately the level at which it has held for most of the last two years.

Barclays:
We look for euro area ‘flash’ HICP inflation (Wednesday) to drop to 1.4% y/y from 1.9% y/y in April. We also expect core HICP inflation to fall to 1.0% y/y from 1.2% y/y.

UBS: Inflation in the Euro area to moderate to 1.70% y/y (prev.1.90%, cons. 1.50%), while core inflation is expected to edge down to 1.0% (prev.1.20%, cons. 1.0%).

Eurozone Unemployment Rate.

According to Armando Armenta Strategist at UBS, Eurozone unemployment rate to continue trending downwards to 9.4% in April from 9.5% in the prior month.



FX POSITIONING

CFTC leveraged positioning data is for the week ending 23 May 2017 reveals, Funds reduced their overall net EUR short positions, the lowest since May 2014. This is the fifth consecutive week of EUR buying and if it continues, we could see leveraged funds turning net long EUR for the first time in three years, reported by ANZ.



TECHNICAL VIEW

We forecast near-term depreciation, as investors focus shifting to the central bank meetings in June. Ahead of this week’s NFP and next week’s ECB June meeting investors likely to book profit on longs.

According to Barclays, “The ECB seems to be indicating only a very slow change to its guidance in June” besides “US economists expect the Fed to begin a balance sheet runoff in September (previously expected in December) and to raise the target range for the federal fund’s rate by 25bp in June and December.

In our Friday’s article (May 26), we forecast “downward correction over near term”.

Bull’s strength sacked at 1.1270 (rounded) it’s 161.8 daily fe over near term, there is a room for downside correction as the daily RSI is printing lower high.

The price gave a breakdown (Descending triangle on H1 chart) of 100 pips trading range, low made 1.1123. The price has immediate support finds at 1.1100 its 100WEMA below this parallel support finds at 1.1075 and 20DMA finds at 1.1050 exists. Ahead of EA inflation data EUR has potential support zone remains between 1.1100/1.1050 and 1.0990 levels. Alternatively, resistance seems at 1.1170/1.1200, 1.1250 and 1.1300.

Click the image to open in full size.


Over the medium term, potential support finds at 1.0900/1.0870 below this 1.0830/1.08 exists. EUR momentum remains strong aiming at the two-year descending trendline or 1.1400/1.1430.

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Old May 31, 2017, 4:50am   #32
 
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EURJPY: Developing multiple bearish factors

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
TECHNICAL VIEW:


Spotted with a double top.
Erases the five-week ascending trendline.
Ascending triangle formation spotted.

Before retrace to 123.15 (May 30) the cross spotted with a double top on the daily and weekly charts and rejected twice at 200EMA (weekly). Over near and medium term the cross has potential resistance seems between 125.80 and 126 above this 126.20/126.40 exists.

Click the image to open in full size.

The daily RSI making lower high appears limited upside risk. Today on Asia session EURJPY trading with 0.20% gains high 124.28 facing resistance at 20DMA seems at 124.30. Ascending triangle formation spotted on the daily chart, if settles below 122.50 distribution pattern likely to be confirmed.

This week’s Monday (May 29) fall brought the cross below the five-weeks ascending trendline. Multiple technical factors deliver “limited upside risk” theme.

Click the image to open in full size.

FX POSITIONING:

According to Strategist Ran Ren and Scott Dingman at CITI FX “Hedge funds sold EUR during every trading session last week”. The strategists also said “Weekly EUR selling was the strongest since early April and on a 4-week basis, leveraged clients are reversing from the positive territory” in a note to clients (May 30).

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