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This is a discussion on Key To Markets - Discussions within the Forex Brokers forums, part of the Commercial category; Inflation for UK, EA and NZ UK and Aussie jobs data US and UK Retail sales In the markets this ...

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Old Apr 16, 2018, 12:46am   #249
 
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KTM FX Weekly: Global economic calendar (April 16-20)

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Inflation for UK, EA and NZ
UK and Aussie jobs data
US and UK Retail sales
In the markets this week US Retail sales, China GDP and UK inflation are the key data risk events scheduled.

On the other side, Global traders are concerned about Geopolitical risk as over weekend developments have raised the risk of sentiment again. Trade wars and renewed geopolitical concerns are forcing investors to park the money in the safe haven camp (JPY and Gold).

In the US next week, most significant data release is Monday’s March Retail sales. The Commerce Department will publish the March data at 1.30pm GMT. The market consensus will show stronger March Retail sales by 0.4% from February -0.1%.

Turning to EA, German ZEW Economic Sentiment and final March CPI are the significant risk events grab the attention. EA March inflation expects at 1.4% on a YoY basis and core inflation expected to be at 1.0%.

In the UK, February jobs data and March inflation to provide clues on a May rate hike. We are particularly watching the wage growth to accelerate to 3.0% on Yoy.

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In Canada, inflation, retail sales, and BOC policy settings are likely to raise the loonie volatility than usual. We expect BOC unlikely to hike this week, whereas May hike could be expected.

Turning to Asia, China Q1 GDP is the major risk event scheduled at 3.00am GMT. We expect the Chinese economy will grow by 6.8% yoy basis. Other data RBA’s March meeting minutes and Aussie jobs data are worth to watch to trade AUDSUD and AUDNZD.

In the Asia-Pacific region, NZ quarterly inflation figures will publish on Wednesday at 11.45pm GMT.

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Old Apr 17, 2018, 1:51am   #250
 
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KTM EURUSD Weekly: Exercising Patience

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The EURUSD gained 0.60% during the past week and the major has extended the gains on Monday as well. US Retail sales data set to break the EURUSD range -bound territory. The major has been well supported into dips whereas price action has been trading in a symmetrical triangle.

Data review:

German trade balance recorded a surplus of 19.2 billion euros in February 2018
Consumer price index in Germany rose by 0.4% in March 2018

Data preview:

German ZEW Economic Sentiment and final March CPI are the significant risk events grab the attention. EA March inflation expects at 1.4% on a YoY basis and core inflation expected to be at 1.0%.

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TECHNICAL OVERVIEW


As we forecasted in late March, EURUSD has retraced to the support zone, but failed to break the support. Since then the major has been in a well-defined range consolidation with a solid support available at 1.2150 levels.

It needs to break the 1.2300 to forecast a meaningful reverse in the near term to 1.22240 and 1.2200. The selling practice will accelerate further below 1.2150 could open to 1.2090 and 1.2050 with resistance seems to be at 1.2340 and 1.2450 levels.

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The levels to watch closely on the downside is 1.2300-1.2280. This is a crucial level to watch for an initial weakness.

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Old Apr 18, 2018, 3:25am   #251
 
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KTM FX Daily: Bank of Canada policy meeting

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Bank of Canada expected to hold interest rates steady at 1.25%. Traders are closely watching to the full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR (Monetary Policy Report).

In the last week’s BOC Business Outlook survey report showed that business sentiment continues to be positive.

Regarding inflation, the reported showed “most firms still anticipate that inflation will remain within the Bank’s inflation-control range of 1 to 3 per cent, just above half now expect inflation to be in the upper half of that range”.

Preview: We expect the central bank will hike the rate in the May or post local general election, Ontario’s next election dated to June 07. The overall rating hike will come either in May or in July 2018.

In today’s meeting, we expect the BOC will update the growth estimates

Over the past month, the Canadian dollar has strengthened against the most traded currencies. Further hawkish signals from the BOC could add an extra fuel to the CAD bulls to the May meeting.

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Old Apr 19, 2018, 2:28am   #252
 
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KTM FX Daily: NZ CPI review. AUDNZD has rallied above our target price

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Here are our quick reactions to New Zealand March CPI.

According to Stats NZ, the CPI rose by 0.5 percent in the March 2018 quarter. The annual inflation rate was 1.1 percent, down from 1.6 percent in the year ended December 2017 fell to the lower end of the RBNZ’s target range.

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Since 2000, inflation has averaged around 2.7 percent. This compares with averages of 2.4 percent in the 1990s, and averages of over 11 percent for the previous two decades. Since September 2002, the inflation target has been to keep inflation within a range of 1–3 percent on average over the medium term, according to John McDermott, Head of Economics.

“Housing and household utilities made the largest upwards contribution to the 1.1 percent CPI increase in the year ended March 2018”, said Stats NZ in the statement.

The statement also said, “In the March 2018 quarter compared with the December 2017 quarter, Alcoholic beverages and tobacco rose 4.3 percent, influenced by higher prices for cigarettes and tobacco (up 10 percent)”.

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On the other hand, “Education prices fell 5.6 percent, influenced by lower prices for tertiary and other post-school education (down 16 percent)”.

In the Westpac’s First Impressions report, analyst Michael Gordon said, “The dip in annual inflation is likely to be a temporary one. The lower New Zealand dollar over the last year will eventually give a boost to tradables prices, and the comparison with prices a year ago will favour a higher inflation rate over the next few quarters. That said, we don’t expect inflation to make it into the upper half of the 1-3% target range any time soon”.

According to ANZ Economist, Miles Workman, “We retain a view that domestic inflation will rise and broaden in time”. The economist also said “we suspect the RBNZ will continue to bide its time until there’s a little more certainty that inflation is set to rise. But with a new Governor there is naturally more uncertainty than usual, and Mr Orr’s first Monetary Policy Statement on 10 May will be perused with great interest, despite a clear market expectation of an unchanged OCR for a long time yet”.

FX INSIGHTS: The kiwi dollar reaction was largely muted post the CPI data in early Asia session.

As we forecast in our earlier articles the cross AUDNZD has rallied above our target price 1.0600, recorded at 1.0515. We are still biased for another leg up to ideal targets between 1.0660 and 1.0800, which should complete our medium-term bullish targets.

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Old Apr 20, 2018, 1:52am   #253
 
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KTM Weekend FX: USDX strengthened overnight

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The dollar index (KTM:USDX) strengthened overnight as the US 10year yields settle above 2.900 amid higher inflation expectations. Since early March, the index has been consolidating in a symmetrical triangle.

Overall, since the Jan 2018 low, the dollar index has gone sideways with a massive whipsaw effect and been trying to form a base. As we forecasted in our earlier articles, in the Q1 the price held the support level 88.00.

Our base case scenario to support the DXY is as we remain in our forecast, “expect four Fed hikes in 2018, but more confirmation will be available at the June meeting”.

On the weekly chart, the RSI was posted a double bottom addition to this, the oscillator is remaining bullish. Based on these facts we forecast in Q2 the trading range will remain between 86.50-93.00 levels.

EURUSD: The angle of correction

The major has been locked in a range bound territory, but with a bearish tag. As shown in the below chart, the corrective A-B-C structure aiming at 1.2060, noting that 20MA (weekly) lies at 1.2100. The underlying indicators on the daily and weekly are remaining bearish.

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AUDUSD: Rejected again at 200MA

The cross was rejected again at 200MA and has broken below the parallel support 0.7744. The daily and weekly studies RSI and oscillator are remaining bearish. After breaking the parallel support, we forecast two targets pointing to 0.7670 and 0.7640 its 100MA (weekly).

NZDUSD: Sitting above support

The kiwi baby finally snaps the three-week running course and closed below 20 and 50MA (daily). Currently, the cross is sitting tad above four-week ascending triangle, whereas the underlying indicators are remaining bearish. Immediate support is found at 0.7240/0.7230 below this, target 0.7200/0.7190.

We forecast a medium-term target at the 61.8% fib reaction is found at 0.7020. The near-term price action has already been capped. A daily close below 0.7170 targets 0.7110/0.7110 levels.

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Old Yesterday, 12:39am   #254
 
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KTM FX : Weekly chart pack

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The weekly chart pack summarizes forex market trends and provides some insights about the near-term trading patterns.

With regard to Friday’s closing price couple of forex pairs are sitting tad above key support level. We are particularly interested in AUDUSD, NZDUSD, and EURUSD, all are pointing to the South.

We seem they have been developing pretty classic bearish setups since the end of the January 2018. These setups are getting better and better and the bearish layers are widening across.

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Click the image to open in full size.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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