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Old May 30, 2017, 5:08am   #31
 
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EURUSD- Fell below the 100 pips trading range, what to watch now.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread French election outcome and latest data releases in the euro area continues to support the EUR. We forecast near-term depreciation, as investors focus shifting to the central bank meetings in June.

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


Review of the previous week data: Flash Services PMI increases in EZ, Germany, and France.

M3 decreased to 4.9% in April 2017, from 5.3% in March.
GfK predicts German consumer climate to reach 10.4 points in its forecast for June, which is 0.2 points higher than in May.
Flash EZ Services PMI slightly falls to 56.2 vs 56.4 in April, 2-month low.
Flash EZ Manufacturing PMI increases to 57.0 vs 56.7 in April, a 73-month
Flash Germany Services PMI falls to at 55.2 vs 55.4 in April, 3-month low.
Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI increases to 59.4 vs 58.2 in April, a 73-month
Flash France Services PMI increases to 58.0 vs 56.7 in April, 72-month
Flash France Manufacturing PMI falls to 54.0 vs 55.1 in April, 2-month low.

Upcoming data:

Key data releases for this week include May inflation in the Eurozone (May 31), and the US May labour market report (Jun 02). We do not expect inflation data will accelerate the market volatility ahead of the US labor data (June 02) and next week ECB meeting. (June 08)

Wed, May 31

Germany

CPI YoY basis

Core CPI

Analysts forecast EA inflation likely to fall back moderately along with core CPI. The following are the analyst’s forecast:

UniCredit: Headline inflation will probably decline to 1.5% YoY from 1.9% and Core inflation is likely to drop back towards 0.9-1.0%.

RBC Capital Markets: we expect the headline rate to fall back to 1.6% y/y from April’s 1.9%. we Would expect core inflation to fall back to 0.9–1.0% this month, approximately the level at which it has held for most of the last two years.

Barclays:
We look for euro area ‘flash’ HICP inflation (Wednesday) to drop to 1.4% y/y from 1.9% y/y in April. We also expect core HICP inflation to fall to 1.0% y/y from 1.2% y/y.

UBS: Inflation in the Euro area to moderate to 1.70% y/y (prev.1.90%, cons. 1.50%), while core inflation is expected to edge down to 1.0% (prev.1.20%, cons. 1.0%).

Eurozone Unemployment Rate.

According to Armando Armenta Strategist at UBS, Eurozone unemployment rate to continue trending downwards to 9.4% in April from 9.5% in the prior month.



FX POSITIONING

CFTC leveraged positioning data is for the week ending 23 May 2017 reveals, Funds reduced their overall net EUR short positions, the lowest since May 2014. This is the fifth consecutive week of EUR buying and if it continues, we could see leveraged funds turning net long EUR for the first time in three years, reported by ANZ.



TECHNICAL VIEW

We forecast near-term depreciation, as investors focus shifting to the central bank meetings in June. Ahead of this week’s NFP and next week’s ECB June meeting investors likely to book profit on longs.

According to Barclays, “The ECB seems to be indicating only a very slow change to its guidance in June” besides “US economists expect the Fed to begin a balance sheet runoff in September (previously expected in December) and to raise the target range for the federal fund’s rate by 25bp in June and December.

In our Friday’s article (May 26), we forecast “downward correction over near term”.

Bull’s strength sacked at 1.1270 (rounded) it’s 161.8 daily fe over near term, there is a room for downside correction as the daily RSI is printing lower high.

The price gave a breakdown (Descending triangle on H1 chart) of 100 pips trading range, low made 1.1123. The price has immediate support finds at 1.1100 its 100WEMA below this parallel support finds at 1.1075 and 20DMA finds at 1.1050 exists. Ahead of EA inflation data EUR has potential support zone remains between 1.1100/1.1050 and 1.0990 levels. Alternatively, resistance seems at 1.1170/1.1200, 1.1250 and 1.1300.

Click the image to open in full size.


Over the medium term, potential support finds at 1.0900/1.0870 below this 1.0830/1.08 exists. EUR momentum remains strong aiming at the two-year descending trendline or 1.1400/1.1430.

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Old May 31, 2017, 4:50am   #32
 
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EURJPY: Developing multiple bearish factors

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
TECHNICAL VIEW:


Spotted with a double top.
Erases the five-week ascending trendline.
Ascending triangle formation spotted.

Before retrace to 123.15 (May 30) the cross spotted with a double top on the daily and weekly charts and rejected twice at 200EMA (weekly). Over near and medium term the cross has potential resistance seems between 125.80 and 126 above this 126.20/126.40 exists.

Click the image to open in full size.

The daily RSI making lower high appears limited upside risk. Today on Asia session EURJPY trading with 0.20% gains high 124.28 facing resistance at 20DMA seems at 124.30. Ascending triangle formation spotted on the daily chart, if settles below 122.50 distribution pattern likely to be confirmed.

This week’s Monday (May 29) fall brought the cross below the five-weeks ascending trendline. Multiple technical factors deliver “limited upside risk” theme.

Click the image to open in full size.

FX POSITIONING:

According to Strategist Ran Ren and Scott Dingman at CITI FX “Hedge funds sold EUR during every trading session last week”. The strategists also said “Weekly EUR selling was the strongest since early April and on a 4-week basis, leveraged clients are reversing from the positive territory” in a note to clients (May 30).

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Old Jun 1, 2017, 3:14am   #33
 
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USDCAD: CAD shorts were pared for the third consecutive week from record shorts.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Symmetrical triangle breakout visible.
Erases a month falling channel.

USDCAD snaps the 3-month winning formula fell more than a percent for the month of May, but remains above 20MA (monthly). Earlier USDCAD rejected at 61.8% (1.4690-1.2460 fall) as the CAD bearish sentiment eases slightly.

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


Recent Canada economic data is encouraging and Bank of Canada being more positive on the domestic growth outlook.

BOC said “The Canadian economy’s adjustment to lower oil prices is largely complete and recent economic data have been encouraging, including indicators of business investment”.

According to Nomura, “CAD has been supported by the BoC being more positive on the domestic growth outlook”.

Deutsche Bank: We continue to expect the BoC to hike just once this year, most likely in Q4.

But Morgan Stanley has a contrarian view, “Stable BoC policy and limited developments in oil markets failing to provide a directional short-term catalyst”.

In a research note to clients, Dara Blume Strategist at Morgan Stanley said “We argue that headwinds to Canadian output growth and continued labor market slack will keep inflation low, forcing the BoC to stay on hold while the output gap closes by mid-2018 on the BoC’s estimates”.

Data Review:

Canada March GDP increased 0.5%, following no change in February.
Current account deficit (on a seasonally adjusted basis) widened by $2.3B in the Q1 to $14.1B, as the goods balance moved from a surplus to a deficit.

Upcoming risk events:

Fri, June 02

Trade Balance

Besides, we got May ADP employment (June 01) and Non- Farm Payrolls (June 02).

US May ADP employment is forecast for 180k.

TECHNICAL VIEW

Last week, the price hold the parallel support available at 1.3387 rebounds above 1.35. The price has been rejected at 50DMA for four trading session out of five. On Wednesday session, high made at 1.3520 rejected at parallel resistance seems at 1.3540 above this 1.3590/1.3600 exists.

Click the image to open in full size.

Over near term, the price has the support zone remains between 1.3450/1.3430 below this 1.3387-1.3350 and 1.3260-1.3250 exists.

According to Nicholas Weng a Strategist at Deutsche Bank, “CAD shorts were pared for the third consecutive week from record shorts”.

In the four hour chart, the price gave an upside breakout through the symmetrical triangle and erased a month falling channel .The price likely to cap between 1.3560-1.3600 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Jun 2, 2017, 5:25am   #34
 
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Risk reward favors short EURGBP

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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW


UK politics has taken the center stage this week, with opinion polls showing Theresa May could lose the majority. Renewed Brexit concerns and latest polls reveal Theresa May landslide victory might not possible, are the two factors drag the pound recently.

According to Nomura analysts (June 01), “In the event of a Labour victory, we think the pound would at first head lower, as increased uncertainty would lead to reduced inflows. However, as austerity would be removed and “softer Brexit” hopes would return higher real yields may offset this and GBP would be higher”.

Besides, EUR was fully priced for ECB’s forward guidance in its June meeting scheduled next week.

TECHNICAL VIEW


The cross spotted with a double top but consolidating above the five-month trendline. The cross rallied for two consecutive weeks, printed the strongest monthly gains in six months. Over near, resistance zone remains between 0.8750-0.8785 March high and 50.0% of Oct-Dec fall above this 0.8850 Jan high exists.

Alternatively, support finds at 0.8680 and 0.8650 below this downside risk open for 0.8600 and 0.8570/0.8550. Trend reversal occurs below 0.8500 for 0.8350/0.8330 levels.

According to analysts at Barclays, “Markets are too positive EUR and have turned too negative GBP; risk reward favors short EURGBP”.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Jun 6, 2017, 5:25am   #35
 
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Brent: Potential support finds at 48.50 and 47.70.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


Oil price fell nearly a percent on Monday session on the diplomatic clash between Qatar and three Arab allies. Following the OPEC meeting (May 25) oil slumps more than 10% from May high.
Before retracing a percent on Monday session, Oil price rose nearly 1.5% led by tensions in the Middle East. A political rupture raises the price volatility but manages to remain above Friday low.

According to JBC Energy analysts said in a note, "While we would not want to read too much into this in terms of looming trouble for OPEC, the fact that Qatar's stance towards Iran is a key element in this issue does make for a potentially more complicated setup at future meetings should the issue not have been resolved in due time".

For the week ending to May 30, the CFTC) said on Friday “Hedge funds raised bullish wagers on U.S. crude oil for the second straight week to a near one-month high”. The data showed, “Money managers raised their combined futures and options position in New York and London by 17,555 contracts to 239,049” reported by Reuters.

TECHNICAL VIEWS


The weakness in recent prices coupled with the scale of growth in US drilling activity. As we forecast in our last article, the price tested our potential support finds at 48.50, low made at 48.60 and spotted with a positive divergence on the four-hour chart. Brent oil price retraces more than 70% (46.32-54.55 rally) likely to place a bottom between 48.50 and 47.80 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

We forecast a rebound to 49.30 and 49.50 in a day or two as the hourly oscillator remain bullish. The bulls must propel above 49.80/50.00 to escape further correction, in this case 50.40/50.60 and 51 are highly likely. Alternatively, fails at 48.50 additional support finds between 48.10-47.90.

Click the image to open in full size.

We forecast an inverted H&S pattern on the daily RSI.

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Old Jun 7, 2017, 4:15am   #36
 
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Commodity trades

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • Brent oil erased the two-week falling channel.
  • Symmetrical triangle breakout visible and spotted with a triple bottom..
  • We forecast a rebound for 49.50 but price exceeds.
  • Gold and Silver finally succeeded to meet our targets.

Oil price edge upward more than 2% on Tuesday session and spotted with a trip bottom on the daily chart. On our yesterday’s article, we forecast a rebound for 49.30 and 49.50 but the price made a high at 49.96.

Readers can remind our forecast post-OPEC meeting for 48.60$, low made at 48.59$ and again updated “Wait for a dip to buy”.

Before further up move, the price likely to consolidate between 50 and 48.50 levels to capture buying interest.

Click the image to open in full size.

The bulls must propel above 50.00 to escape further correction, in this case, 50.40/50.60 and 51 are highly likely. Alternatively, fails at 48.50 additional support finds between 48.10-47.90.

We forecast an inverted H&S pattern on the daily RSI.

For a trading perspective, support finds at 49.20, 48.80 and 48.50. Alternatively, resistance seems at 50.00, 50.40 and 51$. Yesterday’s breakout was an initial sign of renewed interest, but we still need to wait for bullish confirmation to confirm the bottom.

Gold price finally succeeded to meet our target at 1295$ recorded at 1220$ odd levels. The price witness a clear five-year trendline breakout but a weekly close above the same need to confirm further headroom.

The immediate resistance seems at April high above this 1300$ mark exists. A weekly close above 1300$ confirms the continuation of the bullish trend in the coming weeks for 1315 and 1319 initially and next in line 1324, 1337$ and 1352$.

Alternatively, support finds at 1287, 1280 and 1273. As the hourly RSI and oscillator are exhausted and appears overbought a healthy correction needed to accelerate upward momentum again.

Click the image to open in full size.

If we look into the Silver, finally succeeded to complete our target at 17.70$ recorded at 16.80$ odd levels. The price made a high at 17.75 (June 06) facing resistance at 200WMA and 50MA (monthly) above this 17.90 50WMA exists.

Further headroom available for 18.30,18.50 and 19$ if propels above 18$.

Potential support finds between 17.30 and 16.90 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Jun 8, 2017, 4:14am   #37
 
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EUR technical view against JPY and USD ahead of ECB meeting

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Wednesday’s EUR depreciation might fully priced the inflation downgrade forecast.
ECB sounds less dovish and more symmetric forward guidance.
EURUSD failed to overcome 1.1285 resistance.
EURJPY got two bullish indicators along with the multiple bearish themes.

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


Market participants focus on today’s (June 08) ECB meeting expecting to change its wording, growth and inflation forecast.

We expect that ECB sounds less dovish and more symmetric forward guidance. ECB likely to upgrade its economic assessment and acknowledge that risks to the growth outlook have moved from the downside to broadly balanced. We guess Wednesday’s EUR depreciation might fully priced the inflation downgrade forecast.

If the ECB evade changing its forward guidance today, further EUR deprecation is possible.

TECHNICAL VIEW

EURUSD rejected at 1.1300 moved lower but rebound from parallel support on Wednesday session.

The EURUSD manages to hold the parallel support finds at 1.1200 rounded, low made at 1.1204 and rebound sharply to 1.1280.
Since four straight sessions, EURUSD failed to overcome 1.1285 resistance and draft the trading range between 1.1200 and 1.1285. The last five trading sessions price action reveals, upside risk is weakening and a downturn possible. The daily RSI and oscillator remain bearish, appears upside risk is limited.


Initial support finds at 1.1220/1.1200 below this 1.1160 and 1.11/1.1075 next in line. Alternatively settles above 1.1300, set of resistance levels next in line are 1.1330, 1.1360 and 1.14. We expect spikes would not be sustainable and likely to give up some of the gains over near term.

Click the image to open in full size.

Ahead of the ECB (June 08) and Fed meeting (June 15), we forecast the price likely to cap between 1.13/1.1360 or 1.14/1.1430 levels.

Readers can remind, we have been recommending “buying EUR on dips” still remains the same strategy.

EURJPY:
Societe Generale: The BOJ will hold the line and keep policy easy enough for long enough for us to see significantly higher levels in EUR/JPY in due course.

The cross has been consolidating in a narrow range between 125.80 and 122.50 for four weeks. Before retrace to 122.50, the cross spotted with a double top on the weekly chart and rejected twice at 200WEMA.

Over near term 121.70 and 121.20 are the potential supports next in line. Alternatively, to regain the bullish momentum back the cross must close above 124.50 on a daily basis to aim for 125.20/125.40 and 125.80. Over medium term the cross has potential resistance seems between 125.80 and 126 above this 126.20/126.40 exists.

The daily RSI making lower high appears limited upside risk. Symmetrical triangle breakdown spotted on the daily chart, if settles below 122.50 distribution pattern likely to be confirmed.

Click the image to open in full size.

The other week (May 29) fall brought the cross below the five-weeks ascending trendline (four-hour) and Tuesday’s (June 06) fall brought the cross below symmetrical triangle on the daily chart.

Along with the multiple bearish themes, we got two bullish indicators on the four-hour chart. RSI and oscillator remain bullish.

Click the image to open in full size.

Multiple technical factors deliver “limited upside risk” theme.

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Old Jun 9, 2017, 6:24am   #38
 
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The June central bank actions likely to soften the EURUSD uptrend over near term.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread EUR has been sliding after ECB meeting and extends the losses on Friday early trade, down 0.15% low made at 1.1196 (9:20 AM, AEST). EUR active into UK general election results in early Asia trade against GBP.

ECB review:

As expected ECB left its monetary policy settings unchanged on Thursday (June 08). ECB fell short to meet market’s hawkish expectations.

The ECB kept policy rates and its QE program unchanged but changed forward guidance on interest rates now expected to “remain at present” levels for an extended period.

Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirms that the net asset purchases to run until the end of Dec 2017, or beyond, if needed, until we see a sustained adjustment in inflation.

Key takeaways:

  • Last monetary policy meeting confirms a stronger momentum in the euro area economy.
  • The risks to the growth outlook are now broadly balanced.
  • ECB lowering its inflation projection, for 2018 was lowered to 1.3% from 1.6% previously, while the forecast for 2019 was revised down by 0.1pp to 1.6% bringing it even further away from the 2% target.
  • The outlook for GDP growth was revised upward to 9% in 2017, by 1.8% in 2018 and by 1.7% in 2019.

Comments post ECB policy decision:
Danske Bank:

We still expect the ECB to continue its QE program next year but to reduce its purchases to EUR40bn per month starting from January 2018 and continuing for at least six months. In our view, it is still premature to discuss rate hikes from the ECB.

Barclays (Antonio Garcia Pascual and Philippe Gudin) :

We expect an extension of QE into 2018 but also reduction of its pace to €3540bn in H1 18 and €1520 in H2 18, as well as two 10bp hikes in the deposit rate, in Q2 18 and Q4 18. In other words, we expect both QE and negative deposit rates to still be in place throughout 2018, even if at less accommodative levels than in 2017.

TECHNICAL VIEW


Following ECB meeting EUR down below 1.12 but manage to close at1.1214. Lowering inflation projection and lack of rate hike clues pressure the EUR on Thursday session.

The upside momentum has stalled since five straight sessions, EURUSD failed to overcome 1.1285 resistance. Recent price action reveals upside risk is weakening and a downturn possible. The daily RSI and oscillator remain bearish, appears upside risk is limited.

Initial support finds at 1.1170 below this 1.1120/1.11 and 1.1075 next in line.

Click the image to open in full size.

Today on Asia session EURUSD down 0.25% low made at 1.1180 trading tad below 20DMA. Alternatively resistance seems at 1.1220, 1.1240 and 1.1285.

The upcoming Fed meeting outcome likely to drive the price lower again. The June central bank actions likely to soften the EURUSD trend over near term.



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Old Jun 12, 2017, 2:54am   #39
 
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GBPUSD: Additional pressure likely to be added this week, room for further fall.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread UK general election raises GBP volatility, cable drafted bearish outlook.
Surprise UK election results set in the reality could soften the BREXIT outcome.
The cable manages to hold 100MA but settled below 20&50DMA.

The astonishing UK election results raise near-term GBP volatility. The election outcome brings forward challenges for the Brexit negotiation and GBP as well with downside bias as political uncertainty dominated the theme.

What’s on this week?

Tue, June 13

CPI YoY Basis

Barclays:


We forecast headline and core inflation to increase to 2.9% y/y (consensus: 2.7%) and 2.5% y/y (consensus: 2.3%), respectively, in May.

Wed, June 14

April labor data

Barclays:

We and consensus forecast the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.6%. Average weekly earnings picking up to 2.5% 3m/y (consensus: 2.4%), although core average earnings are likely to moderate slightly to 1.9% 3m/y (consensus: 2.0%).

Thu, June 15

May Retail Sales

Barclays:

Retail sales are likely to drop 0.5% m/m in May.

In U.S, June FOMC (Thu, June 15 AEST) is the another key trigger for GBPUSD.

Barclays:

At the June FOMC meeting, we expect the Fed to raise the target range for the federal funds rate 25bp, to 1.0-1.25%.

Michael Gapen at Barclays, Given our expectation of a rate hike in June and balance sheet runoff in September, we find it unlikely that the Fed will deliver a dovish message on the outlook.

TECHNICAL VIEW


We saw the initial move lower in GBP following results outcome and the medium GBP forecast casts on PM’s stance on BREXIT.

The cable manages to hold the 100DMA 1.2618 on Friday session, made a low at 1.2634 and closed at 1.2740. Today (June 12) on Asia session the cable rose 0.20% (11:00 AM AEST) high made at 1.2747.

Over near-term support, zone remains between 1.2620/1.2600 and 1.2575 its 200DMA. Ahead of the key economic events, additional pressure will be added below 200MA as a result GBP likely to fall further to 1.2520/1.2500 and 1.2460 levels.

In our earlier article “we forecast 1.2620” cable made a low at 1.2634, now wait for a rise to enter another sell trade.

Click the image to open in full size.

Over the medium term, April 18th (election was announced) low 1.2516 likely to act as a pivotal (1.2500 rounded) below this 1.2440 (50.0% of the 1.1824-1.3047 rally) and 1.2360 exists. Currently, the cable is trading at 1.2740 still trading higher than a pre-election announcement, a room for further correction is highly likely.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Jun 13, 2017, 2:18am   #40
 
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BRENT : A daily close above 48.30 needed to throw a near term bullish projections.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The price respects the nine-month ascending daily trendline.
The daily RSI making a higher low and the oscillator appear bullish.
Trading range remains between 44-55 over medium term.

The recent diplomatic clash between Qatar and its neighbors could limit the Brent trading range between 46 and 49.50/50 over the near term and 44-55 over medium term.

Oil price rose 1.70% rapidly on Monday session (June 12) during Europe trading time, high made at 48.89 but erased the spikes gradually by the end of the day and closed with marginal losses.

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


Signs of inventory declines in U.S, a supply disruption in Nigeria and news that Saudi Arabia will limit volumes of crude to some Asian buyers in July (Reuters) are the key drivers lifted the oil price on Monday session.

By the end of the session, Brent closed with 0.2% losses from day high fell nearly 2% as news from EIA drag the price down.

According to the EIA monthly drilling productivity report, Oil production from seven major U.S. shale plays is predicted to rise by 127,000 barrels a day to 5.475 million barrels a day in July from the previous month.

The Wall Street Journal reported, Qatar’s energy minister said Sunday the country remains committed to limiting its oil output through March 2018 under an agreement with other big oil producers, despite the severing of its diplomatic relations with OPEC allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Reuters reported Speculators raise U.S crude oil net longs-CFTC

Speculators raised its combined futures and options position in NY and London by 3,160 contracts to 242,208 for the week to June 06, CFTC said on Friday.



TECHNICAL VIEW


The price respects the nine-month ascending daily trendline made a low at 47.16 and rebounds. The daily RSI making a higher low and the oscillator appear bullish.

Click the image to open in full size.

Earlier the price erases the two weeks descending trendline. On yesterday session, the price gave a breakout through the inverted H&S pattern. Earlier breakout (trendline) and the latest developments suggest downtrend is easing.

Click the image to open in full size.

Support level finds at 47.60, 47.10/47 and 46.30/46.00. Additional selling pressure arises below May low, next in line are 45.70, 45 and 44.50.

A daily close above 48.30 needed to throw an initial bullish forecast. In this case, 48.90/49, 49.60 and 50$ are highly likely, extreme case 50.40/50.60 is expected.

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Old Jun 14, 2017, 3:38am   #41
 
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CAD technical overview- AUDCAD,CADJPY and USDCAD

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • Bank of Canada hawkish talks pushes the loonie higher again on Tuesday.
  • Bank of Japan meeting (15-16 June): No policy changes expected from Bank of Japan.
  • CADJPY: Set of resistance seems between 83.30 and 83.70.
  • Aussie traders focus on labor market statistics due on Thursday (June 15).
  • AUDJPY: Higher lows are spotted on the daily chart between 0.9940 and 0.9920
  • USDCAD: Trend lines (13M and 38M) in focus
  • USDCAD: Key support find at 1.3150.

USDCAD TECHNICAL VIEW
Since two weeks we have been recommending a downside risk for 1.3250 but the price retraces further and made a low at 1.3210 tested the thirteen-month ascending trend line.
The relentless dollar selling against loonie finally pauses at 1.3210 rounded to 1.3200 below this 1.3150 100.0weekly fe exists.

NEXT IN LINE

The thirty-eight-month ascending trendline finds around 1.31 below this 100WEMA finds at 1.3050, in between 50.% (1.2462-1.3793 rally) finds at 1.3125. The weekly higher swing low and double bottom (Na, and Feb 2017) on the monthly chart coincides with 61.8% (1.2462-1.3793 rally) 1.2965.

Click the image to open in full size.

Scalpers will be attracted between 1.3210 and 1.3200 as the hourly RSI extremely oversold. For intraday (Wed) purpose support zone remains between 1.3210/1.32 below this 1.3180 and 1.3150 exists. Alternatively, near term, resistance seems at 1.3250/1.3260, 1.3300 and 1.3340. Medium-term resistance moved down from 1.3640 to 1.3540/1.3550.

AUDCAD TECHNICAL VIEW


The cross has been trading in a tight range between 1.0340 and 0.9920 for nearly 3 months. Higher lows are spotted on the daily chart between 0.9940 and 0.9920 below this it’s 20WMA exists at 0.9890 exists. The 61.8% (1.0393-0.9597 fall) finds at 0.99 and 80.0% finds at 0.9750.

Alternatively, resistance seems at 0.9990/1.0010, 1.0060 and 1.0100.

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CAD TECHNICAL VIEW


The near term trading range remains between 80.55 and 83.70 . The cross made a high at 83.28 rejected at 200DEMA, 83.30 above this 100DMA 83.70 exists. On the higher time frames, 20MA (WEEKLY) seems at 83.55 and on monthly chart 20MA seem at 83.50.

Before made a double bottom in mid-May the price rejected at 38.2% (88.90-80.55 fall) seems at 83.70. If the cross propels above May high 83.70, further headroom expected for 84.10 and 84.70. In the medium term, bulls can feel comfortable after settles above 84.70 decisively aim for 86.80/87. Support finds at 82.90, 82.10/82 and 81.60.

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Old Jun 15, 2017, 3:57am   #42
 
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AUD overview- AUDUSD, AUDCAD & AUDNZD

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Aussie dollar higher on the back of May 2017 Aussie labor statistics
AUDNZD is the winner.
AUDUSD and AUDCAD ran to the resistance.
Unemployment rate in Australia remained at 5.7%
FUNDAMENTAL NEWS

Aussie dollar higher on Asia trade on the back of May 2017 Aussie labor statistics. AUD rose nearly 0.50% against CAD,JPY,EUR,GBP and USD but gains are stretched to a percent against NZD. Hours before Aussie labor statistics, NZ delivers a moderate GDP growth data in 1Q 2017.

Summary:

Full –time employment increase an additional 52,100 persons and a 10,100 decrease in part-time employment. Since May 2016, full-time employment increased by 148,000 persons, while part-time employment increased by 84,800 persons.

Besides trend unemployment rate in Australia remained at 5.7 percent in May 2017.

TECHNICAL VEIW

AUDUSD

Following the positive labor data Aussie dollar strikes 0.50% against USD but unable to breach yesterday high (12:00 PM AEST). As of now the cross made a high at 0.7632 yesterday high was 0.7635 consolidating at 100WEMA. Earlier the cross failed multiple times at 100WEMA above this fourteen-month descending weekly trend line exists.

The cross has resistance seems between 0.7675/0.77 and 0.7750 (March high). Support finds at 0.7560, 0.7520 and 0.7475.

AUDNZD

The positive labor data extends the highest intraday gains against Kiwi dollar. Hours before Aussie labor statistics, NZ delivers a moderate GDP growth data in 1Q 2017.

The cross been forming a base between 1.0430 and 1.0390 finally takes off and recorded a highest intra gains in a month time frame. It has takes to the 20MA for the first time in a month and given a breakout through symmetrical triangle on the four hour chart.

We forecast it has the velocity to aim for 1.0550 and 1.0570/1.0590 initially, and 1.0640 levels in the extreme case.

The daily RSI and oscillator remains bullish.

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AUDCAD


Yesterday we suggested the readers to focus on AUDCAD as it has trading near a support zone. It rose nearly 140 pips from the recorded price 0.9965, today’s high 1.0095 (12:35PM AEST). We close the view and analyse again as the price approaches resistance zone seems between 1.0100 and 1.0110.

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Old Jun 16, 2017, 5:39am   #43
 
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EURUSD: Use a dip to buy.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread EUR again failed at 1.13 line even U.S CPI shock unable to lift the nose above. Following FOMC meeting dollar attracts fresh flows sends the EURUSD far below 20DMA on Thursday session. The current dollar rally likely to sap quickly and a summer low yet to come.

Data review:


The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany dropped by 2.0 points in June 2017 and now stands at 18.6 points.

What’s on today?


EZ final CPI YoY basis forecast 1.4% vs 1.4%

TECHNICAL VIEW


EURUSD spotted with multiple tops between 1.1265 and 1.1300 finally turned back. It has closed far below 20DMA and an ascending wedge pattern breakdown visible. Ever since BREXIT, EURUSD failed to propel above 1.13 mark except for four occasions (Mid- August 2016).

The daily RSI and Oscillator remains bearish, nearest potential support finds between 1.1120/1.11 and 1.1070. Below this selling pressure accelerates for 1.1020/1.10. Alternatively, resistance seems at 1.1170, 1.1220 and 1.1300.

The price likely to retest the higher end of daily ascending wedge and we would expect a new high to 1.1360 and 1.14/1.1430 and 1.1460. In additional between 1.0950 and 1.0850 offers best buying opportunity in medium term.

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Old Jun 20, 2017, 2:51am   #44
 
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BRENT: We are adjusting our Brent oil price forecast.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • Oil price has been consolidating at early May lows as lower tops accelerating the downward pressure.
  • For four consecutive sessions, Oil has been trading at seven-month low as concerns about U.S output growth stayed.


FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


OPEC cuts working at a slower pace than analysts expected, we are adjusting our Brent oil price forecast.

On Monday session, Brent oil price down nearly a percent low made 46.63, gave up a modest Intraday gain. Year-to-date lows currently acting as a nominal support below this November 2016 lows in focus.



According to Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of consultants FGE, The price of oil could fall to $30/b next year and stay at that level for about two years.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Khalid al-Falih, said Monday that global oil market fundamentals are “moving in the right direction,” but erasing the large surplus of crude held in storage will take time, reported by Platts.com.



Hedge funds cut bullish bets on U.S. crude oil for first time in 4 weeks, reported by Reuters.

US shale gas producers increased the number of rigs again last the week, the 22nd week in a row. The number of wells at the end of the May was the highest in over three years, reported by ANZ in a morning note today.



TECHNICAL VIEW




Brent futures trying to rebound on Friday and Monday sessions, but higher end of the falling channel resist.

The daily RSI appears a higher low and the oscillator remains bullish. To confirm the near term bottom the price has to close above 47.60, the resistance came down from 48.30 to 47.60.

Support finds at 46.30, 45.70 and 45. In medium term potential support finds at 44.30/44 and 43.50.

The price retraced 38.2% (27-58.35$ rally) in May on a break would be 42.70$ its 50.0% fib and 39$ its 61.8%. The ABC pattern target or 100.0 daily fe aims to 44.50$ initially.

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Old Jun 21, 2017, 3:37am   #45
 
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Gold price is increasingly oversold expect a decent bounce.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Before retrace to five-week low gold price spotted with a double top seems at 1295$. The price has been in a downtrend since early June.

Following Fed hawkish comments USD attracts fresh inflows pressures the precious metal price.

Technical view:


In the near term perspective, price is increasingly oversold expect a decent bounce.
On the hourly chart, the price is trading on a verge of the bullish breakout through falling channel.

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On the four hour chart, the RSI and Oscillator appear bullish and the price respects the parallel support 1239 below this 200DMA finds at 1238$.

In the near term perspective, support finds at 1238, 1235 and 1230. Alternatively resistance seems at 1250, 1254 and 1264. We expect a decent bounce from the support between 1243 and 1238.

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In the medium term perspective, support levels remain at 1214 and 1195.

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