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Old Feb 5, 2018, 4:42am   #209
 
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KTM Weekly: Underlying indicators are remaining bearish and the price will follow soo

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Recent three weeks price action indicating a near-term sell-off could trigger in the coming days. Last week trading behaviour remains in sideways and tight trading range since Jan 25th high 70.78$. As we pointed in our last week’s weekly article, the underlying indicators remain bearish on the daily chart.

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Weekly support finds at 66.00$ (50.0% fib reaction, 61.00-70.78 rally) below this could retrace further to 64.50 earlier breakout level. Noting that the 50MA finds at 66.00$. Short term basis, 61$ support is now key and should main the current uptrend.

Weekly range: 66.00-70.80$

On the four-hour chart, the price action indicating a bearish H&S pattern, but remains above the neckline. A move below the neckline needed to confirm the near-term retracement to 67.00$ and 66.00$. Below 66.90$ the degree of the retracement will accelerate to 50.0% and 61.8% fib reaction (61.00-70.80$ rally)

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An alternative scenario, A daily close above 70.80$ could open to 71.50$ and 73.00$.

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Old Feb 7, 2018, 12:55am   #210
 
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KTM Daily: RBNZ preview. NZDUSD and AUDNZD are trading at key levels.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread NZDUSD: The cross rose more than a percent having a high of 0.7350.

Data Review:

New Zealand 4Q unemployment rate fell to 4.5% a nine-year low from 4.6% 3Q, according to Stats NZ. Annual employment increased 3.7%. The labor participation rate was 71.0% down slightly from 71.1% 3Q. The labor cost index increased 1.8% vs1.9% in the year to 3Q 017.

RBNZ Preview:

Market participants shifts focus on tomorrow’s RBNZ Monetary policy meeting. The acting Governor Grant Spencer is presenting his last policy meeting, as his tenure will end on 26 March 2018. We believe the acting Governor will hold the interest rates at 1.75% and new clues will be available only from the incoming governor. Adrian Orr has been appointed as RBNZ Governor effective from March 27, whose first meeting is not until May.

We expect no change in the policy guidance chapter. In November MPS Spencer said “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly”.

In November Monetary Policy meeting, the Bank has considered four government policy initiatives. These policies have increased government spending; the Government’s housing programme; changes to requirements for work and study visas; and increases to the minimum wage.

The bank will provide a clear picture of these policies at its next meeting in February. The new government will provide a budget in May; we have much time to evaluate the government policy initiatives.

According to Phil Borkin at ANZ, “The RBNZ is not expecting to have to tighten until the second half of 2019”.

The exchange rate against USD has appreciated more than 6%. In November MPS the bank expressed “A high exchange rate typically leads to a widening in the current account deficit, as exports become less competitive and imports become more attractive”. We are focusing on the exchange rate comment at it’s February MPS (Feb 08 at 9.00AM NZDT).

The cross rose more than a percent having a high of 0.7350 on Tuesday session. Recent price action remains in a descending wedge pattern. While remaining below 0.7435 Sep 20, 2017, high the parallel resistance in the near-term trend appears bearish. The daily RSI is sloping and the oscillator remains bearish.

On the downside 38.2% fib reaction will be the next destination, in case of a wedge break down. Alternatively, breach of the parallel resistance targets at 0.7375-0.7400 (below chart).

Click the image to open in full size.

The cross currency AUDNZD breaks down the multi-support level 1.0825-1.080 and retraced nearly 60.0% of the previous rally ( 1.0370-1.1290). It’s 61.85 fib reaction and 100MA (weekly) finds at 1.0720 below this 1.0700 exits it’s 20MA (monthly). Earlier bullish break through symmetrical triangle trendline finds at 1.0650.

In case of a rebound, 1.0825 and 1.0870 will be the immediate targets.

Click the image to open in full size.

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What is your Technical View?

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Old Feb 8, 2018, 4:30am   #211
 
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KTM Daily: Mega Thursday's GBPUSD pivotal at 1.3835-1.3800

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The cable has fallen since the beginning of this week settled below 20MA. Recent retracement is 50.0% of the previous rally (1.3300-1.4344) indicating a near-term top has established.

Focus shifted to today’s Bank of England policy action and inflation report.
We believe the central bank unlikely to change any policy settings. Our key focus remains on bank’s assessment of the economy and its inflation report. This year’s rate hike factor depends on BREXIT. Traders need to focus on the degree of BoE’s hawkishness. We are also focusing on the vote split and we believe 7-2 will be neutral and 6-3 will be a hawkish tone. The vote-split and inflation report could drive the GBP today.

The Pound Sterling started 2018 on a strong note against the EUR and USD as well in Jan. The pound appreciation has started during the 2H of 2017 driven by the BoE 2018 rate hikes and a gradual easing of the Brexit risk.

FX overview


GBPUSD: Established an important top between 1.3980 (Jan 30 low) and 1.4070 it’s 14MA. In the near-term, it has a meaningful support at Jan 06 low, we believe 1.3835 is the key for the deeper correction. The 38.2 fib reaction (1.3026-1.4344 rally) finds at 1.3835 and the 50.0% fib reaction (1.3300-1.4344 rally) finds at 1.3825. If we draw a line under the recent correction, between 1.3835-1.3800 the cable has a meaningful support fails to hold, targets at the 61.8 fib reaction (1.3300-1.4344 rally) 1.3700 and 1.3660 it’s 50MA coincides with Sep 20, 2017, high seems at 1.3655. Alternatively a solid daily close above 1.4080 targets at 1.4150. As shown in the below chart selling pressure looms between 1.3980/1.4000-1.4080.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the medium-term forecast, meaningful support finds between 1.3550-1.3450. The daily RSI and oscillator favor bearish.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Feb 9, 2018, 1:20am   #212
 
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KTM Daily: AUD FX overview

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • AUDCAD offers high volatility today
  • AUDJPY sit above big levels
  • EURAUD and GBPAUD facing resistance at recent highs
  • AUDUSD sits above support levels

AUDUSD placed a meaning top after last week’s CPI and China Manufacturing PMI data. From Jan high the cross has retraced more than 4% having a Thursday’s low at 0.7775. Immediate supports finds at 0.7770 its 100MA and 0.7750 its 200MA. The 50weekly MA finds at 0.7720 and additional support 0.7700 mark. A move below 0.7700 could retrace further to 0.7650 earlier breakout level (Dec 05 high).

Resistance seems at 0.7800 above this targets at 0.7840.

AUDNZD: The cross currency AUDNZD breaks down the multi-support level 1.0825-1.0840 and retraced nearly 60.0% of the previous rally ( 1.0370-1.1290). It’s 61.85 fib reaction and 100MA (weekly) finds at 1.0720 below this 1.0700 exits its 20MA (monthly). Earlier bullish break through symmetrical triangle trendline finds at 1.0650.

In case of a rebound, 1.0825 and 1.0870 will be the immediate targets. We remain a buyer in a dip between 1.0750-1.0650.

EURAUD: The cross held the parallel support available at 1.5630 and changed the direction to last week’s high. Parallel resistance seems at 1.5770 above this 1.5830 (Jan 2014 high) exists. Recent five trading sessions price movement indicating a top-in progress. A daily close below 1.5630 could strengthen the bearish view, target 1.5500 initially. Alternatively, a daily close above 1.5830 could open to 1.6000 and 1.6200 in the coming weeks.

GBPAUD: The BoE’s hawkish tone pushed the cross to Dec 2017 high seems at 1.7996 but failed to breach. Today in early Asia trade the cross is trading at 1.7906. The 100MA (Monthly) seems at 1.8040. The daily RSI breach needed (below chart) to forecast further bullish views.

Support finds at 1.7800, 1.7700 and 1.7610.

In the bullish scenario, 1.8130, 1.8270 and 1.8400 possible in the coming weeks. Alternatively if fails at supply zone 1.8040-1.7990 near-term retracement could be expected.

Click the image to open in full size.

AUDCAD: The cross has erased the ascending trendline and retraced 50.0% of the recent rally (0.9578-1.000). The daily RSI and oscillator remain bearish. On Thursday session the cross down 0.25% having a session low at 0.9800. Today in early Asia session the price action extends the overnight losses down 0.15% but manage to hold the parallel support finds at 0.9785 (Nov 30 high).

Intraday pivotal finds at 0.9780 below this the 1st support find at 0.9740 it’s 61.8 fib reaction/0.9730 a parallel support and 2nd support at 0.9700 previous swings low.

Additional support finds at 0.9670 it’s 80.0 fib reaction coincides with the Sep 06 low.

The cross offers two risk events today, in Asia RBA monetary policy due and Canada jobs data (8.30am Canada local time).

AUDJPY: The risk-on mood encourages trades to shift to JPY to the weekend. The cross down 0.10% on early Asia trade having a low at 84.45. It has a parallel support finds at 84.34 Nov 27 low and 20MA (weekly) at 84.30 below this 83.60 exists its 100MA (weekly). In case of a parallel support break down and close below 84.30 could retrace further to 83.60 and 83.15 in the coming days.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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Old Feb 11, 2018, 11:18pm   #213
 
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KTM Weekly: Global economic calendar. US inflation could determine the market trend

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • Australia labor data
  • German prelim GDP and EA 4Q GDP
  • UK, US CPI and Retail sales
  • NZ inflation exceptions

Meetings of the central banks during the past week taken the central stage. The Reserve Bank of Australia again left the interest rates unchanged at 1.5% at its last week’s February meeting. The RBNZ left the cash rate unchanged at 1.75%. The MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5% but the BoE hinted to hike the rates.

Last week’s global equity markets selloff supported the JPY and CHF. The cross USDJPY tends to volatile heavily, particularly to the drop-in equities. In the week ahead increase in risk aversion could drag the cross to 2017 low 107.30.

RISK EVENTS:

The UK and US have a busy economic data calendar in the week ahead. UK and US CPI, UK PPI and Retail sales are the key risk events. A higher than expected US inflation number (Wed) will rise the March Fed rate hike bets. Eurostat will publish EA 4Q GDP (Wed).

Click the image to open in full size.

Chart of the week: USDJPY

The major tends to volatile heavily, particularly to the drop-in equities. Last week the price action managed to hold the 108.00 mark and quickly rebounding to 108.80, however, the decline from Nov 2017 looks increasingly impulsive. A move below 108.00 could retrace further to Sep, 2017 low 107.30 below this the 61.8 fib reaction (98.90-1118.66 rally) exists at 106.50.

Any pullbacks could face resistance between 109.30-109.70 its 20MA. The bulls must settle above 110.30 in order to rally further. The daily oscillator remains bullish.

Weekly range: 106.50-110.80


Click the image to open in full size.

Click the image to open in full size.

Also read Bitcoin technical view on our KTM blog.
It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

Have a question? Let us help!

A KTM Analyst is ready to assist you, click on the comment section below


Last edited by KeyToMarketsUK; Feb 11, 2018 at 11:26pm. Reason: Added another image
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Old Feb 13, 2018, 2:09am   #214
 
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KTM Daily: A lower high needed to forecast further EURUSD retracement

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread A quiet week flows in EZ. Last week’s equity selloff has changed the EURUSD positioning structure.
As 2018 unfolds the euro lovers rushed to buy the common. We believe the story likely to continue this year as well, in addition to that euro not yet fully priced for ECB.

Data review:


EZ January services PMI registered 58.0 from 57.6 in December, 12 years high
Germany January services PMI registered 57.3 from 57.0 in December, highest in nearly seven years

Data Preview:


This week’s low impact economic data likely to provide a little director to the euro. US inflation could determine the market trend. In case of the DXY comeback would be clearly a near-term weakness in the major.

Click the image to open in full size.

TECHNICAL VIEW

The major, finally pause another innings last for three consecutive months or seven weeks in a row facing resistance at 100MA (month). At higher time frames, the 200MA seems at 1.2530, Jan high was 1.2537.

Click the image to open in full size.

The RSI has been propelling down and the oscillator again turned bearish. The ABC corrective phase 161.8 Fe finds at 1.2190 manage to hold past two days.

Weekly potential support remains at 1.2160-1.2140 and 1.2080

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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Old Feb 14, 2018, 12:22am   #215
 
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KTM FX Daily: USDJPY and USDCHF technical overview and trading plan

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread USDJPY: The major fell over a percent having a low at 107.40 but manage to hold the Sep 2017 low 107.30. The dollar weakness and the news from Japan hit the price hard.

Bloomberg reported, “The Bank of Japan looks set to stay the course for now, with Haruhiko Kuroda at the helm for another term”.

Today’s pivotal finds at 107.30.

Click the image to open in full size.

Any pullbacks could face resistance from 109.00-109.30 its 20MA. The bulls must settle above 110.30 in order to perform a rally.

Click the image to open in full size.

USDCHF: Before retracing to sub-0.9300 levels the other week, the cross has confirmed a top at 0.9430-0.9440 (below chart).

Intraday range remains between 0.9240-0.9440, price trading at the middle of the range.

Click the image to open in full size.


Click the image to open in full size.

Medium-term pivotal finds at 0.9240 a break below could open to 0.9200 and 0.9170. A further deep cut could be expected if 0.9170 taken off, in this case, 0.9100 will be the next destination.

On the medium term basis, dip buying favors the trend. Buying between 0.9130-0.9070 sl below 0.9000 target 0.9400.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

Have a question? Let us help!

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Old Feb 15, 2018, 4:53am   #216
 
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KTM Daily: AUD FX overview post labor data

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The Aussie dollar fell 35 pips sharply after the January labor force data hit the wires.

In January employment increased by 16,000 from 34,700 in December. The cross has re-tested 0.7900 post the data it’s 38.2 fib reaction (0.8135-0.7758 retracement).

The unemployment rate decreased by 0.01% points to 5.5%. The labor participation rates decreased by 0.1% to 65.6.

After the stronger than expected US inflation data overnight the dollar rebound and retraced. This supported the cross rally more than a percent.

AUDUSD: Intraday range remains between 0.7900 and 0.7960 breach targets at 0.8000 and 0.8030.

Click the image to open in full size.

Click the image to open in full size.

AUDNZD: The cross currency breaks down the multi-support level 1.0825-1.0840 and retraced nearly 60.0% of the previous rally (1.0370-1.1290). It’s 61.85 fib reaction and 100MA (weekly) finds at 1.0715 below this 1.0700 exits its 20MA (monthly). Earlier bullish break through symmetrical triangle trendline finds at 1.0650.

EURAUD: The cross has been failing to close above Dec 2017. Past eight sessions price action locked in a tight range 1.5800-1.5600. Though the price spikes through the range failed to close above. The daily RSI and the oscillator (RVI) are showing bearish signals.

A daily close below 1.5630/1.5600 could strengthen the bearish view, target 1.5500 initially. Alternatively, a daily close above 1.5830 could open to 1.6000 and 1.6200

AUDJPY: The cross has retraced 80.0 of the previous rally (81.50-90.30). The daily RSI nearly oversold lies at 31. In our last week’s article, we forecast for “83.60 and 83.15” the cross having a low at 83.30 and currently trading at 84.30.

We believe in case of any further retracement below 83.00 could shift the RSI and Oscillator to oversold zone.

View: Buy at 82.00 sl below 81.50 target 84.00.

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It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

Have a question? Let us help!

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