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This is a discussion on Key To Markets - Discussions within the Forex Brokers forums, part of the Commercial category; The Aussie dollar rose 0.30% against the most-traded currencies after the November Retail sales data hit the wires. Australian retail ...

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Old Jan 11, 2018, 2:41am   #193
 
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AUDUSD spikes after November retail sales beats forecast

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The Aussie dollar rose 0.30% against the most-traded currencies after the November Retail sales data hit the wires.

Australian retail turnover rose 1.2% in November 2017, this follows a 0.5% rise in October 2017 according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

AUDUSD spikes after November retail sales beats forecast. The 61.8 fib reaction seems at 0.7890 above this 0.7900 Oct 13 high exists.

A move above 0.7900 needed to strengthen further for 0.7940 and 0.7990.

Weekly trend remains between 0.7950-0.7800

While holding 0.7800/0.7790 bulls try to rally further. Alternatively, 0.7800 and 0.7735 is an open target, if price truncated the 0.7800.

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Old Jan 11, 2018, 11:15pm   #194
 
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EURUSD: Hawkish ECB minutes gave the euro bulls a boost

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The euro rallied 0.70% overnight on the back of the ECB minutes. The more hawkish ECB minutes pushed the EURUSD above 1.20 on a daily closing basis.

The minutes to December 13-14 European Central Bank policy meeting showed “recent indicators pointed to a continued robust and increasingly self-sustaining economic expansion”.

The ECB minutes also showed the euro had remained broadly stable and US Commodity Futures Trading Commission numbers suggested that the market remained positioned for an appreciation of the euro.

The euro bullish reaction to the ECB minutes led by the expectations that the ECB is edging toward removal of the stimulus. The 10y Bund and German government debt yields rose after the minutes.

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We believe in 2018/2019 the ECB policy likely to dominate the Fed. We retain bullish targets of 1.2300 and 1.2500.

At higher time frames while holding 1.1550 Nov 2017 low, the EURUSD will rally further ahead (below chart)

In the near term, while holding 1.1900, the uptrend will continue for 1.2120 and 1.2190.

Click the image to open in full size.

Euro score board:

EURUSD 0.70%, EURCAD, EURGBP and EURJPY 0.50% each, EURUAD marginally up 0.10% and EURNZD down 0.10% (Time 7.30Am AEST).

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Old Jan 12, 2018, 3:09am   #195
 
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Friday FX preview

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The euro popped 0.70% after the hawkish ECB minutes, AUD and NZD rallied further on a weak US dollar. The 10y Bund and German government debt yields rose after the minutes. The US dollar fell against all G10peers.

Natural gas rose more than 6% and Gold closed with marginal gains. Brent oil erased intraday gains and closed with marginal losses.

Bitcoin down nearly 14% to a low of $12569. Today in Asia session Bitcoin again down, nearly 5% to a low of 12684$ (10.40 Am AEST)

Data review:

Australian retail turnover rose 1.2% in November 2017, this follows a 0.5% rise in October 2017 according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.
Industrial production up by 1.0% in euro area Up by 0.9% in EU
The US Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.1 percent in December
In the week ending January 6, initial claims was 261,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 250,000

What’s on today?

Asia:
Japan’s November quarter current account 1.7005 trillion yen, expected 2168.9 billion yen, the previous value of 2.4515 trillion yen
Asian FX traders are watching China Trade balance
US December CPI and Retail sales

News:

President Donald Trump tells The Wall Street Journal that Mexico could end up paying for his proposed border wall “indirectly” CNBC reported. FX to watch: USDMXN
Dudley said, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates three times in 2018, and such expectations are a reasonable starting point.
FX :

USDJPY extend the overnight losses on Friday early Asia session, moved to 111.00. It has a parallel support finds at 110.80.

Ahead of today’s CPI data, trading range remains between 110.80 and 112.00. The initial target on a breakdown is 110.00/109.80, an ABC equality from 114.73-110.84-113.75.

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Old Jan 15, 2018, 2:54am   #196
 
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EUR- Phoria continues

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The single currency gained as much as 1.50% during the second week of 2018 against the USD. The euro has closed its strongest level against the dollar since 2014.

The EUR was boosted by the breakthrough in Germany’s coalition discussion. The weaker US dollar and the hawkish ECB minutes released earlier this week extends the rally to 50.0% fib reaction (1.3990-1.0340 fall).

As we forecast in last week’s daily FX article, the price action reached our near-term targets, take profit action required.

Intraday support finds at 1.2115 and 1.2020/1.2000.

We believe in 2018/2019 the ECB policy likely to dominate the Fed. We retain bullish targets of 1.2300 and 1.2500.

Click the image to open in full size.

Today in Asia session the EUR down 0.50% against NZD, 0.3% against AUD and JPY. But against the greenback manages to hold 1.22 handle.

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Old Jan 16, 2018, 4:20am   #197
 
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KeyToMarketsUK started this thread EURUSD extended the rally 0.60% on the fourth straight session. The single currency rose as far as 1.2296 nearly completed KTM’s 2018 first target. The euro has closed its strongest level against the dollar since 2014. Post-ECB minutes the ECB rate expectations are re-priced.

ECB’s Governing Council member Hanson said “the euro appreciation will not threaten the inflation outlook”. After the comments were published the euro extended the gains touching 1.2296.

Data review:

Euro area international trade in goods surplus €26.3 bn and €8.0 bn surplus for EU

Data Preview:

We have little economic data this week. Monetary policy expectations and dollar weakness are the key drivers this week. ECB reviews monetary policy next week (Jan 25)

Click the image to open in full size.

FX overview

We believe in 2018/2019 the ECB policy likely to dominate the Fed. We retain bullish targets of 1.2300 and 1.2500, first target almost completed. We still believe the consistent EURUSD bullish trend will continue further.

At higher time frames while holding 1.1550 Nov 2017 low, the EURUSD will rally further ahead (below chart).

Click the image to open in full size.

Parallel resistance seems at 1.2330 Oct 2008 low above this 1.2360 200EMA (monthly) exists.
Support finds at 1.2240 and 1.2180.
Weekly trading range remains between 1.20 and 1.2400.
We advised to take profit at 1.2200 in our yesterday’s article and repeat the same today aswell.

View: Take profit action required.

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Old Jan 17, 2018, 4:22am   #198
 
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BoC neutral hike will cap further CAD gains

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread CAD expose downside risk against the USD to BOC policy statement and NAFTA uncertainty. We believe Bank of Canada to hike 25bp to 1.25% on Wednesday meeting. In 2018 we are expecting 3 hikes, this week’s hike likely to shape a dovish hike.

On a medium-term basis, NAFTA uncertainty is the headline risk to the CAD, capping further CAD gains. The next round of NAFTA negotiations, sets for Jan23-28th.

Bank of Canada to hike on a neural basis or on a hawkish tone. In case of a neutral hike, CAD gains against the USD will limit to 1.2350. A hawkish hike will drag the USDCAD further to 1.2300 or in an extreme case 1.2200 it’s 80.0% reaction (below chart).

We are a buyer into BoC and a dip buyer ( at 80.0% fib reaction) into next week’s next round of NAFTA negotiations.

A potential close above 1.2600 could open to 1.2660 and 1.2770 in the near term. The latest IMM data suggest that CAD positioning increased slightly ahead of BoC meeting.

In the medium term, 1.29 and 1.2970 are achievable in case of a higher low pattern on the weekly chart. If the pattern evolved as we expected 1.3200 is the final target.

The USDCAD remains flat in Asia trade (1.00 PM AEST) as investors brace for BoC rate hike. Intraday trading range remains between 1.2300 and 1.2600.

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Old Jan 18, 2018, 2:02am   #199
 
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KTM daily: CAD insights

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Bank of Canada hiked rates by 25bps to 1.25% for a third time to the highest level in the post-recession period. The policy decision was widely expected focus shifts back to NAFTA risk.

The Bank maintained a cautious tone, helped the USDCAD to held the support (Jan 05 low) in line with our expectations.

In the Press Statement Governor Poloz said, domestic economic growth remains clouded by uncertainty related to the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Based on the NAFTA risk we believe further scope for CAD depreciation.

BoC's forecast:

The bank highlighted “real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019, following an estimated 3.0 per cent in 2017.

The bank maintained an optimistic view on the 1Q 2018. “Growth is expected to remain above potential through the first quarter of 2018 and then slow to a rate close to potential for the rest of the projection horizon”.

In terms of inflation, the Bank expects CPI inflation to fluctuate in the months ahead. The bank also forecast “inflation is expected to remain close to 2 per cent over the projection horizon”.

The Governor Poloz said the economic outlook is expected to warrant higher interest rates over time. He also said, further rate hikes are guided by “incoming data”.

FX reaction:

The CAD was weakened after the BoC announcement but USDCAD gains were wiped off with a limited change in the BoC’s tone.

Our forecast:

In yesterday’s article, we forecast “In case of a neutral hike, CAD gains against the USD will limit to 1.2350”. The price action held the parallel support finds at 1.2350, on a weekly basis the probability of shaping into a triple bottom is gradually increasing.

In the near term, while holding 1.2350 on a daily closing basis, we again forecast a bullish reaction to the 1.2530 above this 1.2590 also possible.

A trend reversal could have expected if close above 1.2600. In this scenario 1.2660,1.2770 and 1.2830 are an open target.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Jan 19, 2018, 4:22am   #200
 
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KTM Daily: charts set-up. Bitcoin held 100EMA

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread USDX: The dollar index has made a low at 89.90 on Jan 17 held the 161.8 Fe support 89.80. The daily ABC pattern (95-92.40-94.20) target of 161.8 finds at 89.80. The USDX is stable at a four-month descending trendline (below chart). Near-term support zone remains between 90.00-88.00. We believe while holding 89.80 minor rebound could expect to 91.00 and 91.50. The daily RSI appears a double bottom and the oscillator turned bullish.

Click the image to open in full size.

Bitcoin: After a steep fall nearly 20% this week the digital currency Bitcoin managed to hold the 100EMA on a daily closing basis. Past two days and today’s Asia session price action indicating between 11,330$ and 11,430$ is an initial resistance zone. A move above those needed to rebound further to 12570-12740.

Weekly support finds between: 9170-8790 it’s 100MA below this 7970 200EMA exists.

Brent: We spotted a bearish H&S pattern on the H1 chart. Neckline finds at 68.30, breakout still not visible. Shoulder seem between 69.30-69.70. A move below the neckline needed to forecast 67.50.

Click the image to open in full size.

AUDJPY: The cross is trading on a verge of a neckline break seems at 89.00. A move above this could open to 89.40. Further strength will attach if 84.40 taken out decisively to forecast 90.00 and 90.30. Alternatively fails to cross 89-89.40 will retrace for 88.30/88.00. The daily RSI marks a lower high. Intraday support finds at 88.50 and 88.30/88.00

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