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This is a discussion on Key To Markets - Discussions within the Forex Brokers forums, part of the Commercial category; The forex market remains in the range overnight with the US closed in observance of Independence Day. Wednesday morning AUD ...

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Old Jul 5, 2018, 1:33am   #301
 
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KTM FX Daily: FX Data update

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The forex market remains in the range overnight with the US closed in observance of Independence Day. Wednesday morning AUD grab the attention post the release of better May Retail sales and muted Trade balance data and Caixin PMI survey.

Data review:

Australian retail turnover rose 0.4% in May 2018 following a rise of 0.5% in April 2018, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures. The market forecasted at 0.3%.

The balance on goods and services was a surplus of $827m in May 2018, an increase of $355m on the surplus in April 2018, but fell short of the market forecast $1.2bn.

Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index Services activity expanded at the quickest rate for four months in June rising from 52.9 in May to 53.9, published by HIS Markit.

Eurozone PMI Services Business Activity Index posted a four-month high of 55.2 in June, up from May’s 16-month low of 53.8 and the earlier flash estimate of 55.0. The index has signaled expansion in each of the past 59 months.
“Eurozone growth regained momentum in June, rounding off a respectable second quarter performance, for which the survey data point to GDP rising by just over 0.5%. June also saw new orders and employment growth perk up, suggesting rising demand continues to motivate companies to expand capacity”, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at HIS Markit, commented.

UK Services PMI printed the Strongest rise since October 2017. UK Services PMI Business Activity Index posted 55.1 in June, up from 54.0 in May, signalled the strongest rate of expansion since October 2017.
“Stronger growth of service sector activity adds to signs that the economy rebounded in the second quarter and opens the door for an August rate hike, especially when viewed alongside the news that inflationary pressures spiked higher” Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit commented. The economist also said, “The survey data indicate that the economy likely grew by 0.4% in the second quarter, up from 0.2% in the opening quarter of 2018”.

What’s on today?

We expect a quiet trading session in Asia and things will improve a little bit in Europe session with Germany factory orders (not a market mover). Turning to the US, data flow picks up rapidly with the June ADP employment, Weekly unemployment claims, June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and FOMC meeting minutes.

In the June meeting, FOMC raised the fed funds rate by 25bps, as expected. In the June meeting minutes, our particular attention to the trade tensions and the FOMC communication.

USDJPY: Strong selling pressure remains very strong between 111.00-111.40, a symmetrical triangle formation is still evident in the daily chart. The oscillator has been shaping to an inverse H&S pattern. While holding 109.00 level, we could expect a bullish print at 113.00, if well above 111.40.

Supports are at 110.00, 109.60 and 109.20.

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Old Jul 6, 2018, 6:33am   #302
 
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KTM Commodity Daily: Copper update-oversold

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Copper price may be falling into an area of support defined by the following:
• 38.2 fib reaction finds at (Jan 2016 low-June 2018 high) 2.8000
• 100MA (weekly) finds at 2.7910
• 500MA (Daily) finds at 2.7830
• 161.8fe (A-B-C corrective structure) pointing 2.7620
• The daily RSI study has been extremely oversold
• Overall between 2.8000-2.7620 the price offers very near-term support zone

For now, we view a decent bounce to 2.89 and 2.94 in the very near term.

What if the price falls to hold?

We could expect further retracement to 2.6270 its 200MA (weekly) which coincides with the 50.0% fib reaction and 2.5000 its 50MA (monthly) and finally the 61.8% fib reaction 2.4640.

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Old Jul 9, 2018, 3:31am   #303
 
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KTM FX Weekly: Global economic calendar (July09-13). Chart of the week: USDCAD

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • UK GDP mom, BOC Monetary policy meeting, and US CPI are the key risk events lined up
  • The US dollar responded negatively to the mixed June NFP
  • We expect Bank of Canada to hike interest rate to 1.5%

Review: In response to the dollar weakness, EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD off from the June lows. Trade uncertainties and the mixed June non-farm payroll helped these pairs to bid last week.

With the start of the second week, Brexit news dragged the cable slightly.

News: The Brexit Department confirmed that former Minister David Davis has resigned from public office reported by Wallstreetcn.

Week ahead:

In the EA, German factory orders helped the euro to bounce last week. We learned that New orders in manufacturing had increased in May 2018 by 2.6% from the April 2018 a decrease of 1.6%. Looking ahead it’s a reasonably quiet week except for official export German data.

In the UK, political uncertainties just have been started weighing the pound in an early Asian bid. The week ahead, the UK monthly GDP is the more interest event to watch. It’s a way of keeping track of how the UK economy is doing. The Office for the National Statistics shifted from quarterly to monthly GDP releases from this week. This week’s ONS report covers the March-May. We still believe, looking over the coming weeks, the official data prints will pave the way to the Q3 rate hike. Recent better than expected PMI survey data (Services PMI) push the August BOE rate hike probability to nearly 80.00%.

In the US, June CPI is the principal risk event scheduled on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods. In May, the CPI increased 0.2% after rising 0.2% in April. We expect both the headline CPI and core CPI remain unchanged again at 0.2%. Moreover, we are more interesting to watch the Trade war headlines and NATO.

Turning to the Central bank meeting, we expect Bank of Canada to hike interest rate to 1.5% in its Wednesday meeting. In the April BOC meeting, the bank said, “GDP growth in the first quarter was weaker than the Bank had expected, but should rebound in the second quarter, resulting in 2 percent average growth in the first half of 2018.” The bank also highlighted “Slower economic growth in the first quarter primarily reflects weakness in two areas, the housing market, and exports.”

Chart of the week: USDCAD

Bulls will regain strength well above 1.3165 with targets 1.3220 and 1.3280. Support zones remain between 1.3000-1.2920. In case of a dovish take, the cross USDCAD could be rebound to 1.3280-1.3300 levels.

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Old Jul 10, 2018, 3:30am   #304
 
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KTM FX Weekly: Doctoring the EURGBP pitch

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread • Pound was rocked by three resignations last night, had a weak session
• Things are always changing in the UK political landscape

In the last 24 hours, the GBP started vibrating again as the UK cabinet received a handful of ministerial resignations. The pound began the week with David Davis resignation followed by Junior minister Steve Baker. The pound remains stable despite Davis and Baker departure in an Asian session, whereas Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson departure caused shaking in the European session.

The week ahead, focus now shifts on Thursday’s events.” The 100+ page “white paper” will be released, laying out in fuller detail the UK’s vision as summarised in the Chequers agreement” reported by TD Securities.

In addition to the political woes, BOE August policy meeting is the other catalyst to be watched closely.

UK Data Review: Services PMI continued the recovery in growth seen since March’s snow-related disruption.

• The manufacturing sector remains subdued at the end of second quarter, PMI broadly unchanged at 54.4 in June
• Construction PMI posted 53.1 in June, up from 52.5 in May. Construction output growth reaches seven-month high in June
• Services PMI posted 55.1 in June, up from 54.0 in May, indicated the fastest expansion of business activity for eight months in June.

Data Preview:

The week ahead, the UK monthly GDP is the more interest event to watch. It’s a way of keeping track of how the UK economy is doing. The Office for the National Statistics shifted from quarterly to monthly GDP releases from this week. This week’s ONS report covers the March-May. We still believe, looking over the coming weeks, the official data prints will pave the way to the Q3 rate hike. Recent better than expected PMI survey data (Services PMI) push the August BOE rate hike probability to nearly 80.00%.

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

The euro has been consolidating effectively between 0.8800-0.8900 levels. As we pointed in our earlier notes, the weekly resistances are seemed at 0.8900/0.8920 above this 0.8970 exists. While remains below the weekly supply zone, we foresee a downside risk to re-test the support levels 0.8800 and 0.8760. Flipside side, well settle above 0.8970-0.9000 could rally further to 0.9050/0.9070.
Nothing that, the 50.0% of the fib reaction (0.9599-0.8300 correction) seems to be at 0.8950, and the descending trendline coincides at 0.8920. Overall, between 0.8920-0.8950 we could expect stiff resistance in the week ahead.

Forecast: Remain sidelines

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Old Jul 11, 2018, 1:18am   #305
 
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KTM FX Daily: Wednesday FX overview. Chart of the day: USDCAD

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread NAB Business Confidence fell; China June CPI up; UK May GDP up; German ZEW Economic sentiment tumbles; Canada Housing starts to jump and JOLTS Job Openings edged down.

The market sentiment was constructive in Asian and European session whereas in late NY session recent US-China trade war headlines dampen the emotion again. JPY strengthen across the board, and the US Dow Jones futures fell rapidly. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 2.87 vs. 2.86 Tuesday.

AUD: The business confidence edged down 1pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level. China PPI rose by 4.7% from 4.1% in May and the CPI on an annual basis in June up by 1.9% from 1.8% a year earlier. On a MoM basis, CPI fell 0.1%.
GBP: The monthly UK GDP grew by 0.3% in May. Services, Construction and Agriculture output expanded but drop in production was learned.

EUR: The Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded a decrease of 8.6 points in July 2018 and now stands at minus 24.7 points. This is the lowest reading since August 2012, and well below the long-term average of 23.2 points, ZEW reported.

Click the image to open in full size.

ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach said “The current survey period has been marked by great political uncertainty. In particular, fears over an escalation of the international trade war with the United States have dampened the economic outlook. The positive news regarding industrial production, incoming orders and the labour market have been greatly overshadowed by the anticipated negative effects on foreign trade”

CAD: Building permits month on month basis increased 4.7% followed a 4.7% drop in April.

USD: The number of job openings edged down to 6.6 million on the last business day of May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

News: The Dowjones futures fell rapidly in late NY session on the story that US is preparing to publish a 200$B China Tariff list. Bloomberg reported, “President Donald Trump is preparing to release a list of an additional $200 billion in Chinese products to be hit with tariffs, according to two people familiar with the matter.” The article also discussed “The list could be released as soon as Tuesday, and likely this week, according to the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the matter isn’t public.”

Click the image to open in full size.

What’s on today?

In Asian session we have Japan Core Machinery Orders and PPI (YOY), Westpac Consumer sentiment and Aussie home loans, not market movers though. Moving to European session, ECB President Draghi due to deliver opening remarks at the ECB Statistics Conference, in Frankfurt.
Things will rapidly pick up on the US session with PPI data and BOC policy meeting followed by press conference. Additions to these, worth to focus on BOE Governor Carney Speech about the global financial crisis at the National Bureau of Economic Research conference, in Boston.

Chart of the day: USDCAD

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Jul 12, 2018, 1:28am   #306
 
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KTM FX Daily: Tailspin continues

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread What’s going on?

The Financial market risk sentiment has been deteriorated further after Trump imposes an additional $200billion in Chinese products. Tremors spread across the board as Risk-off mood escalated from Wednesday Asian session to NY session.

Here’s a glance at the best & worst performers:
With Yen appreciation against the most traded currencies, Equities skid, FX weakened and the commodities melted were the themes on Wednesday.

FX Scoreboard (Base currency: USD):
TRY weakened 3.5% followed by ZAR 1.80%, CNH nearly a percent, MXN 0.90% respectively. In the G10 block, AUD and NZD were the weakest down 1.2% each, followed by JPY and SEK 0.90% each and CAD 0.80% respectively.
There is a strong inverse correlation between the greenback and the commodities. As a result, precious metal and the industrial commodities hammered.

Downward pressure continues:
Scoreboard: Brent oil plunged by 5.00% followed by Copper 3.00%, Platinum 2.5%, Silver 1.50% and finally Gold down by a percent (Wednesday closing).

Overview: At the time of preparing the article TRY fell as low as 4.9734 in an early Asian bid against the dollar.

Click the image to open in full size.

Our bullish forecast on USDJPY has been doing well, trading at 111.95.

Click the image to open in full size.

After Trump imposes an additional $200billion in Chinese products, USDCNH popped into early July high in the Asian session and later further extended the gains in NY session. We believe the cross has entered the supply zone, worth to observe for a reversal. Now the conviction factor is low.

All we can say is AUDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCNH, and Copper prices directly associated with the Trade-War.

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Old Jul 13, 2018, 1:33am   #307
 
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KTM FX Daily: Risk on. Chart of the day: Brent

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread During risk-on time, investors are willing to take or buy risk assets. In such circumstances, commodities perform better

Review: The recovery in risk markets has prompted a little bounce in commodities and commodity currencies. Over the past 24 hours, commodity prices manage to hold the parallel support levels.

Gold: Parallel support finds at 1236$
Silver: Parallel support finds at 15.60$
Palladium: Lower end of the range is 930$
Copper: The 161.8fe finds at 2.73$
Brent: Tested and held the 100MAs

(Readers can read commodity stories on our blog)
Equity markets are higher across the globe with Dow Jones 30 (KTM: XUS30) up by 0.90%, and the dollar index (KTM: USDX) rose by 0.70%. The cross USDTRY and USDCNH traced out a double top, whereas the USDJPY keep moving higher (near to our target 113.00) and settles above the three-year descending trendline.

Bitcoin a new kind of money fails to attract investors since the beginning of 2018. The most famous cryptocurrency lost its value by 70.00% from Dec 2017 high, still struggling to find the better foot. In Thursday session the digital current rejected at 20MA and fell by 5.00%. It has parallel support finds between 5945$-5600$.

Chart of the day: BRENT
Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Jul 16, 2018, 1:11am   #308
 
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KTM FX Weekly: Global economic calendar (July16-20). Charts of the week: AUDJPY and G

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The brand-new week is preparing the ground to take off with the Chinese activity data. Rising geopolitical tensions and escalating Trade tensions between the US and China have grabbed trader’s attention to the Chinese data (Mon).

  • Chinese economic activity estimates
  • CPI for NZ, UK, and EA
  • GBP grab’s the attention again

China 2Q GDP, June Industrial production, Retail sales and fixed asset investments are the critical data risk events due in today’s Asian session. We are more focusing on USDCNH, AUDUSD, and AUDJPY in the FX and the commodities, block we are interested on the Copper’s price action.
China’s 2Q GDP: We expect the 2Q GDP to grow from 6.8% from 6.7%. As trade war looms, the 2QGDP is scheduled to be moderated from the Q1.
“The synchronised slowdown in domestic and external demand is likely to put pressure on economic growth in the second half,” said Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications.
Week ahead:

In Australia, Minutes of July 2018 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board (17 July 2018, 11.30 am AEST) and June labor force (Wed) is the principal risk event scheduled.
In the NZ, 2Q inflation is the catalyst to the kiwi dollar. We expect the inflation reading is likely to remain below the RBNZ’s mid-point target 2.0%. We also hope the recent NZD depreciation could support the import prices. On a QoQ basis, we expect a small uptick from 0.5% to 0.6% and from 1.1% to 1.2% in YoY basis.

1Q Review: The annual inflation rate of 1.1 percent in the year ended March 2018 fell from 1.6 percent in the year ended December 2017. In the March 2018 quarter compared with the December 2017 quarter, the CPI rose 0.5 percent.

Click the image to open in full size.
In the UK, the official labor market (Tue), inflation data (Wed) and retail sales readings (Thu) could guide the August 2nd BOE policy meeting. Recent better than expected PMI survey data (Services PMI) push the August BOE rate hike probability.

Read: USDCNH technical overview in our KTM blog.

According to IHS Markit, “If labour market data show rising wage pressures and inflation numbers indicate sustained upward price pressures, the odds of an August rate hike will shorten”.

Feb-April labor market summary:
The unemployment rate was 4.2%, down from 4.6% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975
Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees increased by 2.8% excluding bonuses, and by 2.5% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

In the EA, EA Trade data (Mon) and the final EA inflation reading (Wed) are the catalysts for the single currency.

Turning to the US, Retail sales. IP, Building permits, Weekly unemployment claims and the critical economic events we are watching closely. We are also watching closely to the Fed chair Powell’s speech on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC.


Charts of the week: AUDJPY and GBPCHF

AUDJPY: The level to watch is 84.55
Click the image to open in full size.

GBPCHF: The level to watch is 1.3270

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Yesterday, 1:38am   #309
 
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KTM FX Weekly: EURUSD is largely restricted within the range

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread • Rising Trade tensions have escalated the market volatility and keeping the lid on euro
• Overnight Trump and Putin summit grabbed the attention
• Recent Germany data and the political calmness in the EU supporting the euro somewhat

The rebound in the Q2 economic data encourage us to re-assess the EURUSD technical picture. The Q3 technical landscape is likely to remain in the restricted zone. Moreover, we still believe the trade war likely to bid the dollar for some more time.

Succinct review:
• The euro area recorded a €16.5 bn surplus in trade in goods
• German trade balance recorded a surplus of 20.3 billion euros in May 2018
• Economic expectations in the eurozone may stabilize slightly in July following the sharp slide in June. The index rose from 9.3 to 12.1 points, Sentix reported
• The Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded a decrease of 8.6 points in July 2018 and now stands at minus 24.7 points. This is the lowest reading since August 2012, and well below the long-term average of 23.2 points, ZEW reported
• The accounts of the June monetary policy meeting statement said “it would reduce the monthly pace of net asset purchases to €15 billion until the end of December 2018 and then end net asset purchases” in line with the previous communication.

Preview:


In the EA, the final EA inflation reading (Wed) are the catalysts for the single currency.

Turning to the US, Retail sales. IP, Building permits, Weekly unemployment claims and the critical economic events we are watching closely. We are also watching closely to the Fed chair Powell’s speech on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC.

Technical overview


The potential path for EURSUD in near-term remains sideways. The daily volatility tends to increase evidently, and the daily indicators are bullish, this factor underlines further upside potential. The price action sounds finally ready to re-test the resistance 1.1850 in the coming days.

The supports are at 1.1650, 1.1600 and 1.1500 with resistance seems to be at 1.1850. A well above 1.1850 could rally further to 1.1980 its 20MA (weekly).

Turning to the recent FX positioning, “EUR was the most sold currency by non-commercial IMM accounts, with these accounts holding the smallest EUR long positions since late November 2017” reported by Morgan Stanley strategist.

Weekly forecast: Largely restricted within 1.1850 -1.1600 range

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Today, 1:45am   #310
 
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KTM Crypto Daily: Bitcoin strategy

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The world’s first decentralized digital current spike has risen more than 10% in short time (within the 1hr period) in the late NY session on Tuesday. Before the price popped, it spotted with an inverse H&S pattern. The pattern usually identified to predict the trend reversal. We forecasted and posted the pattern in one of our marketing channels last week and again tweeted in the European session. Finally, the price breach through the neckline and rose as high as 7450$ (KTM: BTCUSD) but pauses at the four-month descending trendline.

Please read this article in our KTM blog to find our earlier updates
Trading an inverse H&S pattern

Pattern trader: Technical and Pattern Traders tends to place a buy stop order above the neckline using the stop loss at the right shoulder lowest point.
The pattern trader could take profit by measuring the height amongst neckline and the lowest point of the head (below chart). The pattern is pointing 7820$, well above the descending trendline could fuel the rally further.



Click the image to open in full size.

Swing trader: Yesterday’s breakout completed the 100.0fe (A-B-C structure). The 161.8 fe seems to be at 7700$ coincides with the June 07 high 7703$.
In the Asian session, immediate supports find at 7260$ and 7100$ levels. The neckline breakout finds at 6790$.
In both the cases, an old-school stop loss can be placed slightly below the right shoulder.

Click the image to open in full size.

Looking beyond the short-term, between 7700-770$ the price could face stiff resistance. Well above the red line only could confirm the bottom if fails, we say a gap-filling activity.

Click the image to open in full size.

We are glad to announce the introduction of 6 new Cryptocurrencies, which are now available in your Metatrader 4: Bitcoin (BTCUSD, BTCEUR), Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Dashcoin, Bitcoin Cash.

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