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This is a discussion on Key To Markets - Discussions within the Forex Brokers forums, part of the Commercial category; Originally Posted by Pat494 Where do you expect the S&P 500 to be by Friday's close ? The price is ...

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Old May 15, 2017, 9:50am   #16
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pat494 View Post
Where do you expect the S&P 500 to be by Friday's close ?
The price is within a thin range between 3 resistances.

In this week we have 3 economic news on the calendar:
capture.png

Depending on the outcome of this news we could see a breakout and open a position in its direction.

capture2.png
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Old May 15, 2017, 10:13am   #17
 
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errrrrrrrr yes ?

Is that an up or down then ?

C'mon lets get off the fence of ifs and buts and pick a figure.
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Old May 15, 2017, 10:30am   #18
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pat494 View Post
errrrrrrrr yes ?

Is that an up or down then ?

C'mon lets get off the fence of ifs and buts and pick a figure.
What do you mean with "pick a figure"?

I'm sure that an experience trader like yourself would agree that "picking figures" doesn't grow your account, what makes your account growing (and that's our main goal) is:
  • Develop a plan.
  • Follow the plan.

As explained before my plan is:
Quote:
Depending on the outcome of this news we could see a breakout and open a position in its direction.
What is your trading plan?
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Old May 15, 2017, 2:29pm   #19
 
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Here is my pick

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indi...prizes-80.html
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Old May 16, 2017, 6:41am   #20
 
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BRENT: Parallel resistance seems between 52.40 and 52.60

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread • Since touching an intraday low of 46.32$ (May 05), Brent oil price rebound more than 11%.
• Overnight oil price extends the rally further 3%, support by comments from Saudi Arabia and Russia Brent oil price pauses the rally at 61.8% fib(April12-May 05fall).
• Oil prices spiked after the energy ministers of Saudi Arabi and Russia jointly said that an OPEC-led crude production would be extended until March 2018.

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS

On Monday Asia session, Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to extend oil production cuts from mid of this year to March 2018, i.e further nine months.

According to the Reuters, “The timing of the announcement ahead of OPEC's next official meeting on May 25 and the statement's strong wording surprised markets, and the move will go a long way to ensure that other OPEC members and other producers who participated in the initial round of cuts fall into line”.

Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup, said he sees a 60 to 70 percent chance of the 1.8 million barrels per day of current cuts becoming larger as the producer group extends their deal to March 2018, reported by CNBC.

Contrarian view: Robin Winkler Strategist at Deutsche Bank said in a note to clients on May 15 “News of a possible extension of OPEC production cuts is not material enough to lift the oil price sustainably”.

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that OPEC earned about $433 billion in net oil export revenues. This represents a 15% decline in revenue, this was the lowest earnings for OPEC since 2004. EIA forecasts Brent prices to average $53/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018, reported in the Short-term energy outlook published on May 08.

Market participants shifts to wait and watch mode to see what happens at the May 25 meeting.

OPEC meets in Vienna on 25 May.
OPEC ministers will meet in Vienna on May 25 (Thursday) to review the agreement and potentially extend the oil production cuts, over until the end of 2017.
Earlier on November 30 2016, OPEC reached its first deal to cut oil production since 2008. The deal cut oil production from OPEC members by 1.2 million barrels a day.

TECHNICAL VIEWS

Following Saudi Arabia and Russia announcement, adding fuel to the rally, oil price spikes 3% but fails to rally further. The bull's strength was sapped after rebounds more than 11% from early May lows.

The Brent Oil price rejected at 100DEMA, off nearly a percent from intraday high. The daily RSI is confirming above 50, appears upward momentum remains in play over the short term. But on the hourly chart (H1 and H4) the RSI seems an overbought, as a result, in the price likely to re-test support levels over near-term basis.

Click the image to open in full size.

The price has support levels finds at 51.20, 50.80 and 50.40. Potential support finds at 51 its 20DMA and 50.80 below this risk available to the downside 50.40 parallel support on the four-hour chart and 50$ initially. If the bulls fail to handle 50$, further downward acceleration possible to 49.80 and 49.60.
The near-term projection likely to be on the downside as the trend offers legroom than headroom.

Click the image to open in full size.

Alternatively, resistance seems at 52, 52.40 and 52.60 61.8% (April 12-May 05 fall). Bulls can feel comfortable only after crossing these hurdles decisively, especially 52.60 aims at 53 and 53.50/53.70.

Weekly trading range remains between 52.60 and 49.50. Bulls incorrigible situation emerges below 49.50.

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Old May 17, 2017, 3:29am   #21
 
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USDSGD printed an inverted- V shape reversal. Can we expect a double bottom?

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • USDSGD printed an inverse V shape reversal .
  • Parallel support finds at 1.3900.

USDSGD printed an inverse V shape reversal as shown in the below chart, rejected at 100DMA last week. The cross is trading at 1.3955 on Wednesday Asia session rose marginally 0.05%. The cross made at low at 1.3940 parallel support finds at 1.3900 below this 1.3890 its 100WMA exists.

Over near term trading range remains between 1.3890 and 1.4080 levels.
If price fails at 100WMA, further downward acceleration possible for 1.3820 lower weekly BB and 1.3800 its 100WEMA. The 61.8 fib (August 2016-Jan 2017 rally) coincides with 100WEMA at 1.38.

The cross has been consolidating at 20MA on the months, twice failed to close above.
The RSI on the four-hour chart is extremely oversold. In case of rebound 1.3980 and 1.4000/1.4020 are the initial targets followed by 1.4050 if settles above 1.4000.

Click the image to open in full size.

The 50DMA is the key driver to bulls incase of rebound. Earlier the price rejected four times by 50DMA (Red line on the above chart).

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Old May 18, 2017, 4:09am   #22
 
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Gold: Parallel resistance seems at 1264, more headroom available

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Gold price rose to two-week high, climbs above all daily MA’s and 50WMA’s aswell. From early May low, gold price rebounds more than 5% high made 1262.80 today, facing parallel resistance at 1264 rounded. The price gave an upside breakout through an ascending triangle (H4 chart), the height of the triangle is 21$.

Click the image to open in full size.

Earlier in our earlier article (May 11th ), we recommended “Bargain hunting expected” at the price of 1220$.

As Geopolitical concerns are growing market participants shifts to gold and JPY. The price manages to hold the four-month ascending trendline (daily chart) rebounds nearly 60% of April fall (1295-1214). The parallel resistance seems at 1264 rounded coincides with 61.8% of April fall (1295-1214).

The hourly RSI (H1&H4) indicates an overbought signal, as a result rally pause at parallel resistance on today’s Asia trade. Over a medium term, the upward momentum remains in play for 1271-1274$, 1280, 1288, 1295 and 1314 it’s 100.0fe (orange line).

Click the image to open in full size.

Alternatively, support finds at 1254, 1246 and 1238 levels.

Over medium-term, the price has a potential support zone remains between 1214 and 1180, we refer this as “buying zone”. In case of deep correction, weekly lower Bollinger band finds at 1160$.



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What is your Technical View?

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To contact the author of this analysis, please email- jkatta@keytomarkets.com, Skype id- jesanand
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Old May 19, 2017, 4:58am   #23
 
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USDCAD trading between fib levels making a lower low and lower high pattern.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread • Thrice fails at 20DMA.
• Gave a symmetrical triangle breakdown on the four-hour chart.
• Canada March retail sales and April CPI in focus today

Canada upcoming events:
The high impact events are March retail sales and April CPI, both scheduled today.

According to Barclays analyst’s, “We forecast inflation to have remained unchanged on the month and the annual rate to fall to 1.35% y/y, on continued weakness of core inflation and seasonally weakness in April”.

TECHNICAL VIEW


USDCAD trading down marginally 0.05% on Asia session as Crude oil rose nearly a percent. Ahead of today’s events and next week’s OPEC meet USDCAD likely to accelerate the volatility.
The price rejected at 20DMA for three consecutive trading sessions and the daily RSI moving downward are the two bearish factors positioning currently.

Click the image to open in full size.

Last week, the price slips below 23.6% (1.3220-1.3793 rally) twice, low made at 1.3640 and rebounds to 1.3770. This week the price slips further to 38.2% which is a lower low (1.3220-1.3793 rally) at 1.3571 and rebounds slightly above 23.6% high 1.3670 a lower high. The 50.0% finds at 1.3500 below this 1.3480 its 50DMA exists. Ahead of next week’s OPEC meet and Bank of Canada rate statement which is fully expected to hold the rates the 61.8% act as potential support finds at 1.3440.

Click the image to open in full size.

The 200MA’s finds between 1.3560 and 1.3530 on the four-hour chart.

Institutional forecast:
According to strategist Nicholas Weng at Deutsche Bank, “CAD shorts were trimmed following the recent oil rally”.

CitiFX analysts forecast (May 18) WTI at 55$ over the medium term.
According to analysts at CitiFX,” we expect to see a re-test of the year’s highs around $54.94-$55.24 and even higher ($62-$65) over the medium term”. The analyst’s also said, “we would expect to see gains by CAD”.

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Old May 22, 2017, 3:11am   #24
 
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Silver: Further head room expected.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • April-May 2017 fall vs Oct-Nov 2015 fall.
  • Higher low expected on weekly basis.
  • Over near term, expected a bullish bias.

Silver price manage to recover nearly 40% of April – May fall, rose two consecutive weeks. During April to May fall (18.60-16.00$) the price down for 16 days out of 17 trading sessions. It reminds me the October 2015 fall, where the price fell for fifteen straight sessions.The magnitude of the April-May fall was slightly higher than Oct 2015.

The price made a bottom ahead of Fed’s rate hike in 2015. This time we have June Fed meeting and I expect the price likely to bottom between 16-15.60$ and change the direction for 17.40 and 17.90 initially. Further strength will be available if the price settles above 50MA on the monthly chart.

Click the image to open in full size.

Earlier the price rejected thrice at 50MA (monthly) and in the current situation since February the price rejected thrice (Feb, Mar, and April). Over the medium term, the price has a potential resistance between 17.90 and 18.80 (50MA and 100EMA, monthly chart) and potential support finds between 16.00-15.60$. If fails at Dec 2016 low 15.60$, parallel support levels finds between 15.20 and 15.00. In an extreme bearish scenario, fails at 15$ drag the Silver to 13$ but the chances are remote.

Over near term, trading range remains between 17.40 and 16.00. Today (May 22) on early Asia trade, the Silver price suddenly spikes more than a percent, high was 17.14$ later erased the gains mostly. At the time of preparing the article (12:00 PM AEDT), the price is trading with 0.20% gains at 16.85.

Trading support finds at 16.80, 16.40 and 16.00$. The 20DMA finds at 16.65 and higher swing low (four-hour chart) finds at 16.40. In case of a dip towards 20DMA is a buying opportunity with sl 16.40 for 17, 17.30/17.40 initially, later 17.70/17.90 expected. Until the price close above 16$ on weekly basis, we can mark it as higher low expect a strong rebound for 18.80/19$ over the medium term. Alternatively, if the price fails at 16$, focus shifts to 15.60 and 15$.

Click the image to open in full size.

As shown on the daily chart, the daily RSI and oscillators are bullish favors and the weekly chart (below) spotted with a symmetrical triangle.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old May 23, 2017, 5:17am   #25
 
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Brent: Resistance seems between 54.30-54.50$

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Oil price hits a highest more than a month.
OPEC meeting on May 25th in focus.
Brent oil enters resistance zone.


FUNDAMENTAL NEWS


Traders are anticipating that OPEC output cuts are likely to be extended nine months. Oil price continues to climb after major sell-off triggered on the other Friday (May 05), rose nearly 17% from early May lows.

Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they have agreed to extend output cuts for further nine months, until March 2018.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said on Sunday that “extending the supply cuts by a further nine months until next March, and adding one or two small producers to the pact, should reduce oil inventories to their five-year average” reported by Reuters.

OPEC meets this Thursday, May 25. Market participants expected that production cut will be extended for nine months. Earlier on November 30, 2016, OPEC reached its first deal to cut oil production since 2008. The deal cut oil production from OPEC members by 1.2 million barrels a day.

Analyst at Nomura forecast ‘OPEC likely to extend cuts”. In a Nomura research note, the analyst also forecast “We see scope for continued oil price support if an extension is agreed on, and think oil prices have a few more months of positive narrative before US production concerns resurface”.

CFTC leveraged positioning: Net long crude oil positions fell for the consecutive week despite a pick-up in prices, reported By ANZ.

According to the Reuters, “OPEC and other oil producers are on course to agree on an extension of supply cuts at a meeting on Thursday, with Saudi Arabia saying most participants are on board with the plan to rein in a global supply glut.”



TECHNICAL VIEW


Crude oil prices continue to climb to one-month high as optimism over OPEC meeting (May 25) are growing. The bulls strength was sapped after rebounds more than 17% from early May 05 lows.


Before climbing higher to 100DMA on Monday session, the price rejected at 52.40 (last week). But we forecast 53.70$, as a result, the price move above our target price made a high at 54.20 enters to supply zone.

We have been recommending to buy oil price for about a month, this theme generated good returns over near term. Despite the sharp sell-off, the theme remains bullish over medium term.

The price gave an inverted H&S pattern breakout on the four-hour chart last week, but facing strong resistance at 100DMA. Parallel resistance seems at 54.30 Feb 08 low above this falling trend line in focus (daily).

Click the image to open in full size.

The daily RSI and Oscillator are remained bullish however on the four-hour chart they are overbought. Ahead of the OPEC meeting, charts are giving a mixed signal.

If the price fails to settle above 54.30, retracement expected to earlier breakout level or neckline finds at 52.40/52.60 below this 52/51.80 and 51.20/51 expected. Additional support levels finds at 50.80 and 50.40. Further bullish confirmation available if the price settles above 54.50 then 55,55.40 and 55.90/56 expected.

Click the image to open in full size.

NUTSHELL: Resistance moved to 54.30-54.50 earlier was 52.60-52.40. A re-test of year’s high is highly likely.



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Old May 23, 2017, 1:21pm   #26
 
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KeyToMarketsUK started this thread [EURUSD Weekly Market Profile]

The Point Of Control (POC) from last weeks stands at 1.1110.

Click the image to open in full size.
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Old May 24, 2017, 2:06am   #27
 
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USDCHF: Buying opportunity available at year’s lowest level

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • The relentless dollar selling finally pause.
  • USDCHF respects 200WEMA.
  • One and two-year trend lines in focus.
  • Symmetrical triangle breakout on H1.
TECHNICAL VIEW

Before 3% retracement in eight sessions, USDCHF rejected twice at 20WMA extend the losses on the third straight month. The cross rejected four times at 100EMA (monthly) finally settles below 20MA(monthly) as well.

In our last week’s article, we forecast “0.9750 and 0.9720/0.9700 if bulls fail at 100WMA” the price made a low at 0.9690 and changed the direction. The immediate support finds at 0.9660 its 100MA (monthly).

Currently, we change the stance from selling to buying as the hourly charts forming a base between 0.97 and 0.9690. Overnight the price gave a breakout through symmetrical triangle on the hourly chart.

Click the image to open in full size.

The price is trading neutral at 0.9758 on early Asia session (May 24) trying to give an another upside breakout through the lower end of the falling channel (daily). We expect the rally might extend for 0.9800/0.9820 initially, later 0.9850 expected.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the extreme case 0.9950 expected, we will analyze once the price settles above 0.9850. Over near-term support finds at 0.9700/0.9690 and 0.9660 these are demand zones or buyers zone.

Click the image to open in full size.

In a scary situation, if dollar index loose the breaks again, we forecast around 0.9550 USDCHF offers longer term support.

Trade: A buying opportunity available at year’s lowest level

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Old May 25, 2017, 3:46am   #28
 
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EURUSD offers room for downward correction over near term

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Spotted with a double top, resistance seems between 1.1270 and 1.1300.
Trading range remains between 1.1160 and 1.1300.
Extended euro longs.
Room for downward correction over near term.

Data Review:

GfK predicts the consumer climate to reach 10.4 points in its forecast for June, which is 0.2 points higher than in May.

Upcoming data:

Given the lack of EUR macroeconomic data it is understandably a quiet day in the markets today. Things should pick up rapidly by tomorrow however as we have a number of high-impact U.S data releases to look forward to, starting with the U.S unemployment claims and U.S Prelim GDP QoQ basis.

Friday,May 26
U.S Prelim GDP QoQ basis

HSBC: We expect Q1 GDP growth to be revised up to 0.9% at an annualised rate, up from the initial release of 0.7%.

U.S April Durable goods orders

HSBC: We forecast that durable goods orders fell 1.6% in April and core durable goods orders rose 0.5%.

TECHNICAL VIEW


Deutsche Bank: Dollar selling was the dominant theme this week, as funds extended euro longs.

The weaker US dollar and less euro area political risk offers decent support to the EUR. Focus is shifting to the central bank meetings in June.

Bulls strength sacked at 1.1270 rounded it’s 161.8 daily fe above this 1.1300 are the other potential resistance exists. Over near term, there is a room for downside correction as the daily RSI printing lower high.

Click the image to open in full size.

On the downside potential support finds between 1.1180 and 1.1160 below this selling pressure accelerates for 1.1100/1.1075 and 1.1020 in the extreme case.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old May 26, 2017, 2:41am   #29
 
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USDCAD manages to hold the 50.0% (Jan-May rally). CAD likely to outperform.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • The tone of the BOC (May 24)assessment appears to be more upbeat.
  • USDCAD manages to hold the 50.0% (Jan-May rally).
  • Oil is expected to trade flat, with risks rising in 2018.

USDCAD made a low at 1.2460 a year ago, rose 61.8% (1.4689-1.2460 fall). As the CAD bearish sentiment eases slightly, USDCAD risk available to the downside.

Recent Canada economic data is encouraging and Bank of Canada being more positive on the domestic growth outlook.

BOC said “The Canadian economy’s adjustment to lower oil prices is largely complete and recent economic data have been encouraging, including indicators of business investment”.

According to Nomura, “CAD has been supported by the BoC being more positive on the domestic growth outlook”.

Deutsche Bank: We continue to expect the BoC to hike just once this year, most likely in Q4.

But Morgan Stanley has a contrarian view, “Stable BoC policy and limited developments in oil markets failing to provide a directional short-term catalyst”.

In a research note to clients, Dara Blume Strategist at Morgan Stanley said “We argue that headwinds to Canadian output growth and continued labor market slack will keep inflation low, forcing the BoC to stay on hold while the output gap closes by mid-2018 on the BoC’s estimates”.

The upcoming Canadain economic events outcome likely provide a clear picture over medium term price action.

Risk events:

Tue, May 30

Current account

Wed, May 31

GDP

Deutsche Bank: We expect Q1 real GDP growth to show a 3.5% annualized gain

Fri, June 02

Trade Balance

Besides, we got May ADP employment (June 01) and Non- Farm Payrolls (June 03).



TECHNICAL VIEW


Ahead of the key events volatility likely to accelerate and trading range remains between 1.33/1.3250 and 1.36/1.3620.

On Thursday session, the price respects the parallel support available at 1.3387 rebounds nearly 100 pips but fails to close at 50DMA. If settles above 1.35 earlier swing high seem at 1.3535 and 1.3590/1.36 are the potential resistance exists to test the bulls.
Additional selling available below 1.3350 for 1.3300 and 1.3260 as the daily and even at higher time frames oscillator remains bearish.

Click the image to open in full size.

Over near term, the price has the nearest support zone remains between 1.3387-1.3350 below this 1.3260-1.3250 exists.


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Old May 29, 2017, 4:41am   #30
 
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Gold: Price action triggered multiple bullish developments ahead of huge events.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
TECHNICAL VIEW


Gold price ended last week on a bullish note, extend the gains for a third consecutive week. The price closed above all daily and weekly moving averages, which confirms the continuation of the bullish trend in the coming weeks.

Recently, we have been providing bullish views on precious metal space (Gold and Silver) and we are expecting more headroom available over the medium term. On the lower and higher time frames, there are multiple bullish developments triggered.We initialed “bargain hunting” on May 11th later medium targets forecast for 1271-1274$, 1280, 1288, 1295 and 1314$.
According to the CFTC leveraged positioning for the week ending May 23, 2017, net long gold positions picked up after four consecutive weeks of net selling.

Along with the bullish factors, we got one bearish factor aswell.

Bullish Developments:
  • On the hour chart, the price settles above symmetrical triangle.
  • On the four hour chart, inverted H&S pattern breakout visible. The pattern target aims for 1278$ and April high 1295$ until holding above 1247$. The price erases the five-month descending trendline, eleven-month trendline in focus around 1280-1282$.
  • On the daily and weekly charts, the price settles above all moving averages.
  • The other week, the price spotted with a Golden cross (May 17).

Bearish factor: On the four-hour chart, the price action spotted with a negative divergence. Parallel resistance seems at 1271.

If the price fails to surpass 1271, the negative divergence likely to drag the price to support levels 1263, 1259 and 1252. Alternatively, clearing above 1271 aim for 1278 and 1295 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

Key data and events scheduled this week :

Fri, Jun 02

U.S May employment report

Barclays forecast, “We expect nonfarm and private payrolls to rise by 175k (cons.: 176k; last: 211k) and 170k (cons.: 171k; last: 194k) respectively, and we look for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.4% (cons./last: 4.4%). We and consensus forecast average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% m/m.

RBC Capital Markets forecast ,”we expect headline and private NFP to come in at 200K for the month. The unemployment rate should remain unchanged at 4.4%
following a sharp tick lower last month.”

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