Binary betting - FTSE / Dow

This is a discussion on Binary betting - FTSE / Dow within the Fixed Odds forums, part of the Commercial category; The interesting thing about binaries is that on IG or Betfair they are remarkably close to the actual probabilities. I've ...

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Old Nov 25, 2003, 10:15am   #33
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The interesting thing about binaries is that on IG or Betfair they are remarkably close to the actual probabilities. I've done lots of research on this and know the odds and markets inside out. What offen happens though is that the markets skew towards the current trend, whether or not the probability has changed so I tend to make money from nipping in at those points.

The thing that will kill you with this type of market is that around 0-5% of the time the market will move suddenly against you and you can lose a lot of money. So you have to know your payoff against reality or you will always lose in the long term.
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Old Nov 25, 2003, 11:10pm   #34
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Can you be a little more specific or perhaps give a generalised example ?


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Old Nov 27, 2003, 7:34pm   #35
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They now do hourly binary bets on the FTSE, these could be interesting, anyone had a go of these??
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Old Nov 28, 2003, 5:06pm   #36
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I've tried one bet and won. Best time to try them is when the market is steaming high or low - go in around the half-hour and see how far they've moved since the top of the hour and decide whether it's likely that the market is going to come back in the time left. Trouble is, the odds offered mirror the probability very well - you'd have to lay out on seventy-eighty points to stand a chance of making a profit. I think they'll be very popular with the 'leisure' gamblers igindex are trying to attract, but they'll always be high risk,

Good luck
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Old Nov 29, 2003, 7:02pm   #37
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If it is going to come back, placing the opposite way would be good. Price gets less than 10 pts just 30 mins in.
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Old Nov 30, 2003, 1:38pm   #38
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That means there is only one chance in ten that its going to go from up to down, or from down to up, in the time left, and nine chances in ten that it wont. All things being equal, I'd go for the 9/10 - but the trouble with the hourly binaries is that anything can happen in thirty minutes, so you're right to be cautious about playing the high odds.

One strategy you could try is to buy when the lower price is below - say - fifteen with more than half the session to go. If a reversal starts, your price will start to rise (remembering that it will have dropped two or three points as soon as you bought so ig could take their cut). Once it's above your buying price, you're in profit. Set yourself a selling price before you start - say, twenty-five percent above what you paid - and stick to it come what may. Over time, you might make a steady profit. If, on the other hand, more often than not your price doesn't rise enough to give you a profit, consider biting the bullet and playing the high odds - at least you'll have evidence of their veracity.

Good luck.
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Old Dec 23, 2003, 5:16pm   #39
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mmm...given up with BB - i.e. getting out while im still ahead. To distracting from Trading. Although - have a betfair account for a bit of fun, can get some tasty odd on their!

Let me know if anyones interested in opening an a/c and you can get £20 if you deposit £20 and make 1 bet!

The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. - J.M. Keynes.
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Old Feb 11, 2004, 5:23pm   #40
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Not sure if this will help...haven't got time to read all the posts...

A digital (binary) can be replicated by buying a call at strike X1 and selling a call a X2, where X2>X1...the actual strike of the digital will be 0.5(X2-X1)...i.e this is a tight bull spread

The actual payout will be X2-X1 for S>X2 and 0 for S<X1

Last edited by Robertral; Feb 14, 2004 at 11:58am.
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