Binary betting - FTSE / Dow

This is a discussion on Binary betting - FTSE / Dow within the Fixed Odds & Binary Betting forums, part of the Markets category; How about another outlook to this binary betting lark: At the end of the day we are gambling and its ...

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Old Oct 28, 2003, 12:07pm   #9
 
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Wideboy started this thread How about another outlook to this binary betting lark:

At the end of the day we are gambling and its an odds game.
Binary bets seem to be sold in the sense that you 'buy' a bet and if it comes true you win.
Now if we look at, for example FTSE ranges (finish up/down 0-10, 10-20, 20-30, >30 etc) what happens is that only 1 of those bets will win, ALL the others will lose.
So, the odds say that if we pick 1 to lose, we are more likely to get it right than pick the only 1 which will win.
Therefore we decide to 'sell' a particular bet and with the law of averages being on your side you should win.
Of course, that does expose us to a rather larger risk than normal. If we sold a bet at 20 then we could lose 80 points if that selection did actually win, for a profit of just 20 points.
We would need to watch the market and use a mental stop perhaps to avoid being killed.

This method has just occured to me today as I sit watching my price list of FTSE 12pm prices, they are all 0 except just the FTSE up 0-10 points bet which settled at 100.
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Old Oct 28, 2003, 1:07pm   #10
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Interesting point...
This has occurred to me previously, but the risk-reward is not good (as you say).
I was thinking of in terms of the DOW, say perhaps selling the bet 0-20 range, perhaps on a 'big news' day..relying on the fact that the market will move one way or the other by a 'largish' amount rather than stay relatively "static".

The big problem is setting the Stop loss, because as time goes on and it stays in your range, then the price will move against you. On the postive side, if there is a big movement the other way, then you will probably get a chance to close early at a profit.

Ta..
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Old Oct 28, 2003, 1:27pm   #11
 
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Wideboy started this thread I don't wish to give my secrets away but I find the FTSE(12pm) up or down 0-10 points bet quite useful at the moment as FTSE is fairly narrow range most days.
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Old Oct 28, 2003, 2:23pm   #12
 
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Wideboy started this thread Nice result today, 78 points after buying the FTSE 12pm UP 0-10 pts at 08:45 today @ 22
Made a dent in my loss last Friday of 69 points - must remember not to try and fight the market back after a loss, I made 2 stupid trades and paid for it
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Old Oct 29, 2003, 12:51pm   #13
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Missed out on a good opp today on FTSE at 12pm....would have got a good quote on it being down.
Having gapped up, it was struggling to maintain it...then drifted down...It is looking weak compard to the other indicies...

Still...will wait for the next opp...
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Old Oct 30, 2003, 6:34pm   #14
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They have increased the number of stocks being offered as binary bets. Is anyone trading these at all ??

Would be interested in hearing any views ?

Ta..
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Old Nov 1, 2003, 8:49pm   #15
 
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Guys, I've checked the binary bet site and registered. The problem you have here is they are always overround by 5%.

You can't win in the long term, They are selling you a 100% probability at 95%. No matter how clever you are they are "Cheating" you!

Cheating you is the wrong word really but imagine the market price of a stock being 100p. You can buy it in the open market at that price but if you want you can go binary and buy it for 105p.

The only thing I can see these useful as are hedging mechanisms. But you will still "Pay" a 5% commision on each trade effectively.

These are good money earners for IG et al...

They can hedge quickly in the underlying market also.

I've found a way to make money from them, but it involves passing off the risk to somebody else and hedging in the open market.

Check out http://www.probabilitytheory.info if you want to qualify my comments on binary bets.
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Old Nov 2, 2003, 2:47pm   #16
 
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I would recommend that if you have found an edge or loophole in this type of betting, that you do not reveal it publicly on this board. I can tell you from previous experience that it is better to keep it to yourself or discuss it privately with a few people that you can trust. Bookmakers are very quick to close any avenue that is consistently non profitable for them. Over at Bookiebusters they have a private room where only invited members (trusted) are allowed access. Perhaps we could set one up here? Failing that I would recommend using PM's.

dbt

ps I think it was Probookie on this site who said that this type of betting had some opportunities to exploit.

Last edited by delboy trotter; Nov 2, 2003 at 11:50pm.
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