Football gambling/trading - stragety and analysis

This is a discussion on Football gambling/trading - stragety and analysis within the Fixed Odds & Binary Betting forums, part of the Markets category; Hello Im planning to trade on football in the UK. I've an interest in football, studied economics and work in ...

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Old Jan 8, 2011, 9:26pm   #1
 
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Football gambling/trading - stragety and analysis

Hello

Im planning to trade on football in the UK. I've an interest in football, studied economics and work in finance so think Im possibly clued up. What Im wondering is how best to approach this ~ I plan to be organised and diligent in my research and want to study a number of variables which might lead to under / over pricing of odds. Are there good programs to log results and other variables on or is excel the best?
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Old Jan 8, 2011, 9:38pm   #2
 
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Re: Football gambling/trading - stragety and analysis

I just use Excel. The most annoying thing about it all is that you cannot view historical data beyond the 90 minutes of the game.

One thing to bear in mind - simply placing a bet based on the current odds will not work in the long term. You need an edge which comes from identifying a pattern or knowing something the other traders don't know. The markets are very efficient... but not 100% efficient, in my opinion.
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Old Jan 8, 2011, 10:26pm   #3
 
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Re: Football gambling/trading - stragety and analysis

r.j.e.turner started this thread Sorry what do you mean don't bet on current odds? ! What am i meant to bet on
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Old Jan 9, 2011, 12:50pm   #4
 
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Re: Football gambling/trading - stragety and analysis

I didn't say don't bet on the current odds; I said don't place a bet based on the current odds. For instance, if you bet your favourite team will win based on the price at kick off, over a season you should break even less commission. You will have no edge and the market will be fairly priced. You need to find inaccuracies in the market or trends. For instance, under 2.5 goals, when 2 goals have been scored, always tends to 1.0 as time approaches 90m, unless a goal is scored.
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Old Jan 9, 2011, 2:43pm   #5
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Re: Football gambling/trading - stragety and analysis

You need to check out this page:
http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php

Not only does it have 10yrs worth of football historical data (for free) it also gives a really good (basic) introduction to building a value based model for outsmarting the bookies.

Advice #2 - Forget the high street, do all your betting through Betfair as the prices are MUCH better
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Old Jan 9, 2011, 4:59pm   #6
 
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Re: Football gambling/trading - stragety and analysis

Thanks, Adam, but that doesn't give the historical odds which is of importance when backtesting. You know the graphs Betfair offer - I'd like to see those for all past games across the various markets.
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Old Jan 9, 2011, 6:44pm   #7
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Re: Football gambling/trading - stragety and analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by shadowninja View Post
Thanks, Adam, but that doesn't give the historical odds which is of importance when backtesting. You know the graphs Betfair offer - I'd like to see those for all past games across the various markets.
It depends what kind of betting you're doing. It's it's pure value based, you only really care about the fixed odds at one certain point before the game. The data files on that link do have odds for all the games listed across a range of bookmakers and betting exchanges so can definitely be used for backtesting relative value type strategies, e.g. "Always lay the home team if they lost their last home match".

If you're interested into real-time arbitrage/short term predicative models then you're right, this data isn't good enough. There are companies that sell this kind of data or you hook up to the Betfair api and record it yourself. Doing this kind of strategy is much harder and more time consuming than the approach above, which I believe is what the original post was referring to
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Old Jan 10, 2011, 12:08am   #8
 
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Re: Football gambling/trading - stragety and analysis

Yeah, I downloaded one of the files. I am more interested in shorter term.

Also, the starting price usually reflects the expected outcome - the market is very efficient. If you run Soccer Mystic (Bet Angel product), you can get detailed stuff like predicted odds if one goal is scored in the first 12 minutes of a game or the odds if no goals are scored. It really makes it difficult to make money these days from just placing outright bets because the bots have tightened things up. Browsing through Betfair's forums, it seems that one previously successful guy has pretty much given up because there is a lack of "value" these days.
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Last edited by shadowninja; Jan 10, 2011 at 11:25am.
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