Aud/Usd was overshot reach the 0.8060, currently it is retracing back to 0.8860. The yearly high is about 0.9400, (0.8860-0.8060)/(0.9400-0.8060) = 59.7%, it is retracement range here, addition 3 times hit this level, it shows there are strong resistance level, many trader took winning and open the short position rather than long, if trend go down more some long people will short loss, some people would like to join in the short. Even major trend is going up, Australian fundamental is very well, and with some countries are dealing inflation problem. However, my suggestion is during the recovery uncertain, Euro IBOR rate is reach 0.860%, moreover, stress test results will coming this Friday, if European banks are getting worse, USD index will go up against the other currency. Therefore this is good point to open a position wait for the announcement.
My opinion is going to short the AUD/USD.
4 hour chart more clearly shows the AUD/USD is reaching the resistance level; the bottom indicators show us the price may reach the peak: 1. RSI diverge shows it may reach the short term peak level; 2. ADX below 20 it show the new trend may be start.
For long-term support level, it will be S1 in one hour chart and S2 in four-hour chart. I suggest the long-term strategic is better to use pyramid to take-winning.
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