Market Profile initial balance

This is a discussion on Market Profile initial balance within the First Steps forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by Splitlink Do those varying patterns show you which way the next up/down trend will be? That was ...

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Old Dec 27, 2010, 9:55am   #22
Joined Dec 2010
Re: Market Profile initial balance

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Originally Posted by Splitlink View Post
Do those varying patterns show you which way the next up/down trend will be? That was my difficulty and the reason that I reverted to conventional charts.
Yes I see your point, MP seems easy if the market is not trending, but how to understand from it when the market will start to trend?

Well in the MP books, they speak about how to dissect the day profile and try to underline the moves that come from the long-term traders... you can then have clues on where the market is trying to go, with single prints tails, extremes, responsive and initiating activity analysis and Market Internal Time Clock.
But is important to say that MP doesn't pretend to give an if/then statement, all or none, it just organize the data for you in a better way andallow you to see throught the market in a better way. But then should be our intuition to lead to the right forecast for a new trend. The market is a living breathing organism, and the MP shows you is mood in a clearer way.
I guess also that having acces to volumes and using them in the market profile can make the market much more transparent.

To be honest I'm a beginner in the market profile as in the forex... so I was sharing my worksheet for have some help in using the MP in the correct way back.

Discussion on the patterns would be the best.
For istance (about my previous pictures):
In the week profile I can see a nice bell curve, but the TPOs count says that we have more TPOs above the POC. That should lead to a lower price in the following time.
I can also see from the other day patterns that when there's the american session (the capital letter) the price always moved lower.
As a complete rookie i would say the price is probably to go down next week.
Who can tell me where are the mistakes in my analysis or what important thing I didn't consider?

Last edited by sergio83; Dec 27, 2010 at 10:29am.
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Old Dec 27, 2010, 10:29am   #23
Joined Nov 2001
Re: Market Profile initial balance

Quote:
Originally Posted by sergio83 View Post
Yes I see your point, MP seems easy if the market is not trending, but how to understand from it when the market will start to trend?

Well in the MP books, they speak about how to dissect the day profile and try to underline the moves that come from the long-term traders... you can then have clues on how the market is trying to go, with single prints tails, extremes, responsive and initiating activity analysis and Market Internal Time Clock.
But is important to say that MP doesn't pretend to give an if/then statement, all or none, it just organize the data for you in a better way andallow you to see throught the market in a better way. But then should be our intuition to lead to the right forecast for a new trend. The market is a living breathing organism, and the MP shows you is mood in a clearer way.
I guess also that having acces to volumes and using them in the market profile can make the market much more transparent.

To be honest I'm a beginner in the market profile as in the forex... so I was sharing my worksheet for have some help in using the MP in the correct way back.

Discussion on the patterns would be the best.
For istance:

In the week profile I can see a nice bell curve, but the TPOs count says that we have more TPOs above the POC, that should lead to a lower price in the following time.
I can also see from the other day patterns that when there's the american session (the capital letter) the price always moved lower.
As a complete rookie i would say the price is probably to go down next week.
Who can tell me where are the mistakes in my analysis or what important thing I didn't considered in it?
I'm the same. As you can see, this was in Feb. It will show you how my uptrend showed on MP. I could not obtain any new benefit from it, so I dropped the idea.

One other point is that, unless you suscribe to specialist software, you will have to do this by yourself. I can do FT, it is not difficult, but more than that is time consuming. If you are doing 4 pairs of Forex you going to have your time cut out and it is questionable whether you would last.
Attached Files
File Type: xls MP FEB 15 to 19 2010.xls (34.5 KB, 97 views)

Last edited by Splitlink; Dec 27, 2010 at 10:36am.
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Old Dec 27, 2010, 10:44am   #24
Joined Dec 2010
Re: Market Profile initial balance

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Originally Posted by Splitlink View Post
I'm the same. As you can see, this was in Feb. It will show you how my uptrend showed on MP. I could not obtain any new benefit from it, so I dropped the idea.
I see.
Is not easy I know, and probably I will give up too, but is not that with normal chart you have more information, at the moment MP seems to give me more information and insipiration in understanding the market.

Anyway in your analysis there's no any Value Area or Point of Controll, like that is like never have done MP analysis.

Can I ask you what contract where you trading in this chart?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Splitlink View Post
One other point is that, unless you suscribe to specialist software, you will have to do this by yourself. I can do FT, it is not difficult, but more than that is time consuming. If you are doing 4 pairs of Forex you going to have your time cut out and it is questionable whether you would last.
Maybe you didn't understand that my worksheet is completly automatic, you just have to copy and paste from MT4 History Center the Highs and Lows for every day and then all the histograms are automatically calculated with Iinitial Balance, POC, Value Area, TPOs Count.

If you want i can send the file to you in private. I need someone with who I can discuss if the Initial Balance i considered can be fair, or stuff like that.
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Old Dec 27, 2010, 10:57am   #25
Joined Nov 2001
Re: Market Profile initial balance

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Originally Posted by sergio83 View Post
I see.
Is not easy I know, and probably I will give up too, but is not that with normal chart you have more information, at the moment MP seems to give me more information and insipiration in understanding the market.

Anyway in your analysis there's no any Value Area or Point of Controll, like that is like never have done MP analysis.

Can I ask you what contract where you trading in this chart?



Maybe you didn't understand that my worksheet is completly automatic, you just have to copy and paste from MT4 History Center the Highs and Lows for every day and then all the histograms are automatically calculated with Iinitial Balance, POC, Value Area, TPOs Count.

If you want i can send the file to you in private. I need someone with who I can discuss if the Initial Balance i considered can be fair, or stuff like that.
I hope that you find someone with the same degree of enthusiasm as you have. I am older, now, and lack the will that I had for this type of analysis. I think that I will pass on your offer, thanks all the same.
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Old Dec 27, 2010, 11:02am   #26
Joined Dec 2010
Re: Market Profile initial balance

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Originally Posted by Splitlink View Post
I hope that you find someone with the same degree of enthusiasm as you have.
eheh, yes probably i'll lose it very quickly, thanks anyway
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