Realistic Return ?

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stevenhari

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With a £200,000 spread betting account how realistic is it to expect to achieve a 40% return in year one ( ie £80,000 ) ?

I know this is a very general statement but i would be interested to get some views. I fully appreciate that a high risk attitude would be required and am prepared to work full time with a developed trading system and also with the use of several black box systems.
 
Given what you have said then I would put money on you having the £80k at the end of the year - but probably not the £200k.
 
Is it your first year trading? If so and you end the year break even then you are doing well.
After that then your target is very realistic and achieveable in my opinion.
 
I answered the question you asked. It is completely unrealistic.

You have no experience and want to take a high risk approach to making money. What do you think this game is about? People put their whole lives into trying this and come out with less. The market will eat you alive and not even notice it did so.
 
I'm sorry but Episteme is right.
If you are starting out and that is the capital you have I would plan on putting 180K in the bank and trading 20k for your first year.
Once you are consistently profitable, which could take way longer than you expect, then move up to trading half of your available capital.
Putting everything you have available in a trading account is not smart, even if you have been trading profitably for years.
 
oh and if you think you can just go out and buy a black box system that will give you 40% a year then you are completely off your rocker.
 
thanks elite jets. Maybe i was not clear enough episteme. I have traded with small amounts of money ( £3000 - £5000 ) over the last 10 years but with no real strategic plan / money management in place. Won some lost some , haven't kept track of where i am - no doubt lost more than i made.
But with a clear trading plan , firm stop loss strategy and risking 1% of total equity on each trade i'm looking to give it a serious go.
 
ok elite - interesting - thanks

episteme - id be interested to know why you think that id be " off my rocker " to expect 40% from a black box system.

There seems to be some serious candidates on collective2 and others like ls trader that consistently deliver these kind of returns
 
It gets worse. If you do not have a track record by now, then I give you even less chance stepping up to trade large amounts. Sorry, but my opinion is you will blow the lot by christmas.

My opinion doesn't count of course, only yours does. But out of interest.

What exactly do you think has changed to give you an edge this time? What is this clear trading plan?
 
stevenhari said:
ok elite - interesting - thanks

episteme - id be interested to know why you think that id be " off my rocker " to expect 40% from a black box system.

There seems to be some serious candidates on collective2 and others like ls trader that consistently deliver these kind of returns
Click to expand...

Yep and I could make a case for a roulette wheel giving a 50% return too.
 
Good stuff.
Well its only realistic if you can stick to your plan, I would work on doing that small size first.
Most of us know that that is the hard part of trading.

I know you think Episteme is being tough, but unfortunately he is right. I don't know a successful trader who didn't learn that the hard way.
 
stevenhari said:
thanks elite jets. Maybe i was not clear enough episteme. I have traded with small amounts of money ( £3000 - £5000 ) over the last 10 years but with no real strategic plan / money management in place. Won some lost some , haven't kept track of where i am - no doubt lost more than i made.
But with a clear trading plan , firm stop loss strategy and risking 1% of total equity on each trade i'm looking to give it a serious go.
Click to expand...

Don't mean to sound harsh but if you have 10 years' worth of trading experience and cannot answer your own question (plus realise that to ask if £200k will generate 80% sounds really bizarre) then I would pare down your account to £100 until you've got some sort of system going.

As for black box systems, they're frowned upon in T2W land - how the hell can you trust something you can't break down and examine. I have tested Metatrader systems coded by others and would not even think of running one without reading and analysing the code line by line. How can you determine the difference between a drawdown and a complete failure of the system, for instance? And, as they say, past performance is no indication of future results.
 
well epistome - a roulette wheel ( European ) is virtually guaranteed to lose you 5% of your capital on a long term basis courtesy of the green zero so i now know i can discount anything you say - but thanks anyway !
 
thanks shadowninja - i'll check out your blog later.

Maybe i'm just being stupid but if a black box system can prove significant returns over say 5 years and it is obviously in their interest to generate these returns consistently in order to get more subscribers / larger monthly subscription fees why would you not give them a go ?
 
steven

hang on - if you had developed a black box system that returned 40% a year do think you'd be inclined to sell it or guard it as closely as the crown jewels whilst you built your fortune.

jon
 
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