
I thought I would go over a trade I took today in light of the principles discussed in the PDF. Most notably
mapping the market with regard to the
top down approach and knowing the markets rhythm to
play the retest in your entries.
Yesterday (Monday) I was watching the FTSE on the daily time frame as it trades into a level I have marked on my charts.
see chart 1
As the market hits this level I am feeling decidedly bearish but I am not ready to sell.
The FTSE punches through this level in early morning trade and then reverses and trends down for the rest of the day.
I watch this reaction on the hourly time frame.
see chart 2. I am expecting to see the fall capped by the top of the hourly range - for previous resistance to become support. As you can see, the market holds here temporarily and then after a short lived bounce, we trade down back into the range. This area is now expected to become resistance once again should we get up there.
As we head into the close it is time to look at the S&P500. The daily candle is finishing like this....
see chart 3 No prizes for guessing where the probability is that that is going to be going in the next session...
As the FTSE futures are nearing closure it is heading back into the resistance we marked above. I sell the FTSE around 5507 (the blue box) putting a stop above the high.
see chart 4
The market sells off sharply today on the open this morning.
Note where the first bounce of the day comes. It is at 5455. What a surprise.
I don't get out here because it is my belief that a support level that is regularly hit is going to break. The target is 5413 which is an hourly level based on previous highs that can be clearly seen in the last chart.
The mark collapses into this level but does not quite hit my limit - I have it just a few ticks lower. There is a bounce through which I sit tight and then the market comes down again. It is hovering above 5413 just five minutes before the trade balance. Not willing to take the risk of adverse news when the market is close to my limit order, I close out manually.
The market takes off after the figure and moves upwards. Where does it find resistance? Right where you would expect it too.
Remember the plan forms slowly from the top down.