New Age Investing

This is a discussion on New Age Investing within the First Steps forums, part of the Reception category; Ok now don't get me wrong, I'm not 100% sure about this but...timing trades to certain celestial events? Is their ...

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Old Aug 15, 2003, 10:29pm   #1
 
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New Age Investing

Ok now don't get me wrong, I'm not 100% sure about this but...timing trades to certain celestial events? Is their any fundamental basis for this? For example, full moons can play around with human emotions (or so it's reported) and thus influence thier trading decisions (bullish, bearish). Has anyone observed changes in the market themselves and based their trading around these events?and have they/you had any success? Or is it about as worthwhile as getting my goldfish to pick them for me? I'm just dipping my toe in here so be gentle.

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Old Aug 15, 2003, 10:55pm   #2
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Kael, if planetary movements work for you, go for it. Peedee.
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Old Aug 16, 2003, 2:53am   #3
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If it floats your boat try this:

http://www.calendarresearch.com/

Moon phases etc are also a part consideration made by those who follow more advanced Elliott Wave principles.
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Old Aug 16, 2003, 8:30am   #4
 
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The only reservation I have over all this is (and I have looked at it and find it interesting) is how much it can help in practice if you are a day trader. You can only trade what the chart is doing whatever your preconceptions of how it "should" be moving that day. And preconceptions, as we all know, can be costly.
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Old Aug 16, 2003, 10:51am   #5
 
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If the moon can move tides, then it can certainly move markets. And it does. It forms cycles of peaks and troughs which repeat in various timeframes, from intraday up to Kondratieff. The longer term the timeframe, the easier it is to trade, naturally.
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Old Aug 16, 2003, 12:46pm   #6
 
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Kael started this thread mmm... thank you very interesting stuff, I can see how it may not be ideal for day-traders, but out of curiosity, have any daytraders seen a marked difference in trading activity on a full moon/new moon relative to the days gone before it and after it? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated. I would have thought that a full moon would influnece rash decisions and as such there would be more opportunitys for trading a stock multiple times in that day, due to more swings, but hey I'm new to this so I'm ready to be proved wrong.

Again thank you for your replys.
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Old Aug 16, 2003, 12:57pm   #7
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A good site for this stuff is also linehard.net . A bit weird, but fun anyway.
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Old Aug 16, 2003, 1:14pm   #8
 
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Many people ask that question, because that is how they believe the moon influences the markets.

There's often some nice trends at the time of the full moon, but it's not for the reason that you would assume.

Perry Kaufmann is a financial market mathematician, so it's all very statistically based, and in his book 'Trading Systems & Methods' this is what he says:

"It is known that the moon's effect on our planet is great - it is vitally connected with the movement of all fluids. Because of its large presence and close proximity to the Earth, the moon is also believed to affect human behaviour in strange ways, especially during a new or full moon.

"In an experiment conducted on an arbitrary set of futures markets for the year 1972, it was shown that short-term movements of prices react with some uniformity with respect to the phases of the moon. In fact, the markets chosen for observation - silver, wheat, cattle,cocoa and sugar - showed an uncanny ability to form a rising market following a full moon and a falling market after a new moon."

However, that's not the way any confirmed lunatic uses the moon to trade - there are a few on these boards. However, just put up an intraday chart for the date of a full moon, and days either side of it, and see for yourself.
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Old Aug 16, 2003, 1:24pm   #9
 
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That's all very well, but where I live we get the moon at night, and I'm a day trader.
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Old Aug 16, 2003, 1:48pm   #10
 
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Ahhh ... that must explain why the Ozzies and Kiwis are such good traders; they can see the moon when they trade.
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Old Aug 16, 2003, 2:46pm   #11
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KingCambo's website has a section on Moon Theory which is quite interesting. I wonder if Sunseeker pays any attention to Moon phases as some of his stuff relates to tidal moves I believe, but I could be wrong on that.
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Old Aug 16, 2003, 6:19pm   #12
 
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Heliocentric planetary cycles now were getting deeper


Cheers a320
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Old Aug 16, 2003, 6:41pm   #13
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I've just noticed hairs growing on the palms of my hands. Is this of any significance?

Woof Woof

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Old Aug 16, 2003, 7:06pm   #14
 
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Oldun, you're going to be mooning this thread next......and who could blame you?
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Old Aug 16, 2003, 7:13pm   #15
 
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Skim,
Our friends on the other side are good traders because of the weather. It makes then optimistic about their abilities; they have more of a can-do attitude like the Americans and less of the negative North and Central European approach which is normally coloured by low, grey skies.
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