Yeah, but why though....?

This is a discussion on Yeah, but why though....? within the First Steps forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by Splitlink Point taken, but wouldn't you say that, whether it's tape reading or chart reading, it's much ...

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Old May 1, 2009, 2:32pm   #25
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Splitlink View Post
Point taken, but wouldn't you say that, whether it's tape reading or chart reading, it's much the same. They are all basing their decisions on price relative to what it was before, or pivot points, the difference being that chartists need a chart to see the same thing, probably because their memory is not as good, or because they are looking at more instruments.
Yeah, that's why I said your point was still valid. Just that we're not all reading charts, and hence why they're not the be all and end all. All I was trying to convey was that the chart doesn't effect price (because the people who use them are a small percentage of the market), it's just a (good) way of seeing what it's about to do, hence why chart patterns aren't 100%.
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Old May 1, 2009, 7:38pm   #26
 
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I would hazard a guess that the retail trader as a mass does not move the market at these points, Firstly the majority of us trade small fry stakes, then even most of those use spreadbetting or places like Alpari where your position is not hedged if your not trading over a certain size.

On top of that every one reads the chart differently and places orders at different prices, all the price targets are also at different points as well as stops.

So in summery most of our orders never reach the market and those thta do are never at the same price as everyone else .

If we ever moved the market it was an accident and it didn't last very long bit like when the missus told me the earth moved for her last night
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Old May 1, 2009, 8:13pm   #27
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Originally Posted by Elefteros View Post
I would hazard a guess that the retail trader as a mass does not move the market at these points, Firstly the majority of us trade small fry stakes, then even most of those use spreadbetting or places like Alpari where your position is not hedged if your not trading over a certain size.

On top of that every one reads the chart differently and places orders at different prices, all the price targets are also at different points as well as stops.

So in summery most of our orders never reach the market and those thta do are never at the same price as everyone else .

If we ever moved the market it was an accident and it didn't last very long bit like when the missus told me the earth moved for her last night
I'm not too sure about whether the retail trader moves the markets at those points, or not. The way that they are treated as SR points I should think that all the world and his wife knows that that is where the likely turn is going to be. Most of the time the marketmakers push past them in an effort to trigger all the stop losses, etc. and, when the market reverses and if the higher level holds, more money enters and a rally is underway.

We can read posters' opinions on SR entry points every day on this site.
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Old May 2, 2009, 1:23am   #28
 
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I wasted about four years trying to decipher the intent behind every move and disappeared down a number of fruitless though mildly interesting bunny tunnels. It's a natural thing to do, as the basic mechanics of trading ultimately become tedious and unfulfilling, at the very least in an intellectual sense, so of course one tries to go deeper and deeper to squeeze more meaning from the motion, indeed the profession as a whole. Or hole.

Now I'm down to one free web-based chart and have let it all go, it's such a relief. Four monitors, 85 charts with various pointless divisions of time, range and volume, bid/ask order book overlaid with pit noise, Tick, Vix, put/call open interest, A/D and Trin. WTF? Muddies the waters innit. Anything to avoid seeing the simplicity that was always there. I suppose it's kinda hard to accept that an innocent child with the proverbial crayon would probably do the job better, especially for the inquisitive male ego "But... but ... you mean that's all I have to do? Can't be right. So let's misovercomplexify it" as Bush might say.

Notwithstanding I think basics still need to be grasped: the formations and background levels of commitment and emotion that manifest as, for instance, an even-handed fierce fight; a non-commital can't be bothered to fight; woah that hurt and I grimly held on but now it really hurts capitulation; directional grind, whippy uncertainty etc. ... vague levels of view (or lack of it) and positioning Ó la mr marcus. but beyond that I no longer care why anything is happening outside of the nebulous bigger picture. Perhaps it gets more exciting when you can see the less obvious coming, but you don't need to. Pursue another (parallel) career if you want creative rewards, enlightening explanations or a sense of having produced something whether physically or in the mysterious carapace at the top of our bodies.

Accept that for the market to work it needs to occasionally misdirect - savagely - often during a dull moment (biggest moves often come out of these) but that it is, yes, generally quite obvious. Look at the Dante posse nonchalantly sweeping pips into their baskets with nowt more than the outrageous simplicity of price. Draw a few simple lines, exercise patience and hit those small areas of high probability again and again. That's all we can do. Thus it must follow that battles will indeed be fought in these obvious areas, as that's where the seasoned money will always be. It cannot be any other way. Our money, playing the waiting selective game. Not their money, cause they're impulsive, impatient, clueless, adrenaline diet disciples, or so rumour has it.

That said, looking at your chart, wasp, the lines you've drawn do inconveniently slice through some price action at the tops and tails that could easily disturb a noob into doing something silly. What looks flat, neat and blindingly blatant on 4H is likely to look scary - only to those that allow it to become scary of course - on a 5m. Plus that is a generous GY chart ... often, as I'm sure you know far better than me, the devious little lady overshoots both ways just sufficiently to trap the unwary, again only if they let her. With which pointless tangent I apologise for another content-free post. Wasp you had it right all along. Just do it and don't question. Allow your other interests to answer and fulfil the needling question ' but surely there is more'. Maybe there is, but I haven't found it in trading. Indeed the searching obscured the very thing I didn't need to look for.

PS trendie you mentioned the obvious only becoming so with hindsight. But if you look at any of wasp's lines in this thread, he drew them from the first peak / trough and sat back to wait until the price obediently acted again at the same level. Decision point: stand aside, enter, scratch, take small loss, add, let run as is. A number of simple options. There's no curve fitting in a line extended horizontally from one point. You can do the same. You're far too bright to need crutches, which is the problem you face, in a way, I think.

Last edited by frugi; May 2, 2009 at 2:28am.
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Old May 2, 2009, 1:49am   #29
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Yes Frugi...Beats me why everyone worries about every twist and turn and the need for tight stops and all the rest of the crap they spout forth.

If they are traders...real traders...they can trade anything and are in tune with the market dynamics, regardless of conditions and this wasn't right and this wasn't perfect set up ...that's why it failed etc etc ...bollox all of it.

It's all in the mind...deal with what is in front of you....manage the situation...work the trades....flexible thinking...marry nothing.

For all the clueless out there...here's a tip...decent pot..small positions...it's pretty much impossible to lose.......go figure.
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Old May 2, 2009, 2:46am   #30
 
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decent pot..small positions...it's pretty much impossible to lose.......go figure.
My waffle elegantly prÚcised in 12 words. It took me ten years to work this out, mind. At last I no longer care, I just get on with it. Hey perhaps that's the secret!
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Old May 2, 2009, 7:36am   #31
 
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Originally Posted by frugi View Post
My waffle elegantly prÚcised in 12 words. It took me ten years to work this out, mind. At last I no longer care, I just get on with it. Hey perhaps that's the secret!
I couldn't agree more with the sentiments frugi and CV. After many years of searching for the "whys" and "hows", and having missed many prime opportunities because of the need to "know" every detail ,I decided to review my trading over the last few weeks and strip it down to KISS. This for me has also become a matter of a few well placed levels,trendlines, and very obvious price action. For this I also would like to thank Trader Dante and Wasp in particular who have always fought for absolute simplicity; apologies to others who also champion this principle who I haven't mentioned.

Ultimately these changes have led to less mental angst and consequentially freed time and energy which I have now reassigned to other creative endeavours outside of trading which i neglected for years. I am personally a lot happier in myself for "letting it all go".Those who saw my ramblings as superfluous, I can only say you were right and apologise.
Continued success to you all.
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Old May 2, 2009, 1:33pm   #32
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Originally Posted by mr.marcus View Post
I couldn't agree more with the sentiments frugi and CV. After many years of searching for the "whys" and "hows", and having missed many prime opportunities because of the need to "know" every detail ,I decided to review my trading over the last few weeks and strip it down to KISS. This for me has also become a matter of a few well placed levels,trendlines, and very obvious price action. For this I also would like to thank Trader Dante and Wasp in particular who have always fought for absolute simplicity; apologies to others who also champion this principle who I haven't mentioned.

Ultimately these changes have led to less mental angst and consequentially freed time and energy which I have now reassigned to other creative endeavours outside of trading which i neglected for years. I am personally a lot happier in myself for "letting it all go".Those who saw my ramblings as superfluous, I can only say you were right and apologise.
Continued success to you all.
The real reason the why's and how's are important,that is intermarket relationships, is because I would rather be milking 6 cows as opposed to waiting for one to come in from the field ...you can just trade off just one market maybe even one instrument with low risk , but more is better to keep the opportunities and money working because the risk can be kept low whilst the returns increase...and ultimately risk to reward is the key measure of how well you trade. The more trades you have setting up legitmately ,and not because you are bored ,the better.

LOL..however ,if like Wasp you are betting 50p a point then it's all immaterial
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Last edited by chump; May 2, 2009 at 1:54pm. Reason: couldn't resist the addendum
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