Re: Betting Pro turning to Financials Quote:
Originally Posted by tomorton Hi Fortune500 -
First point is well done for being a gambler, making money as a gambler, and admitting being a gambler. Gambling has a bad name but hats off to you if you've made a living at it. |
THank you Quote:
Originally Posted by tomorton On to the second point though, I'm surprised you're letting your losing positions get so deep and riding them until they return to profit. This just isn't a strategy. It may work some times for you, maybe a lot of times for you, but eventually, you will be the pedestrian running for the gap between two buses - the consequences of a bad wrong decision are wipe-out? |
Many thanks for your comments - I'm sure you're right in just about everything you say. I found that my losses mainly came when I had pre-determined the direction of flow (entering the market with a preconceived idea of what was happening). What I've learned over the last couple of weeks is that the FTSE is hugely unpredictable, and the DOW even more so (at least for me, and at least int he very short term). If a trade would go against me I would close out immediately. I was waiting for the big swing upwards (which rarely materialised), and instead realised short term losses. They all added up. Maybe my "stop loss" was set too high?
I agree entirely, the only reason why I was not closed out of a £7.5K loss was sheer luck (had the FTSE dropped 10 more points I probably wouldn't have refunded the account). Since then I have closed out of a few big downswings, but I definitely think twice before closing anything negative. Minute by minute these prices are up and down like yo yos. Constantly taking losses now seems complete madness now (why didn't I realise this before). Obviously the trick is to know when to close out and when not to. After just a few weeks I'm not claiming to be some kind of expert (completley the opposite), but it does strike me that stop losses set too high in volatile markets will only ever realise losses.
I'm using ShareScope to give a FTSE feed. Funnily I found that I could use that against CMC Markets - when the prices all turned green there was a fraction of a second I could jump on the CMC price before at sharp rise. Obviously they didn't like that. FB have no issue with that scalping practice. The only issue is that the futures move before ShareScope flashes, so there's zero advantage there now. I thought I could use the Vodafone prices to predict overal direction since Vodafone seemed to track it exactly, and I think over confidence in that wrong idea led to my initial losses.
I don't use graphs, per se, at least not to predict future movements. But I do use them to judge levels of support, combined with overal macro data. I've just been sitting watching the graph movng up and down, judging the level of support from the detailed market depth data supplied by FB, and make a call. Sometimes it's no call, sometimes short, but mainly long (based upon my overal premise that the market is roughly bottomed). I don't always get it right, but when I get it wrong I'm willing to sit on a loss. Invariably it's bounced back, but if it's gone to far I have closed and started again.
It's not scientific, but to be perfectly frank, I don't believe scientific principles apply to the human mind. As one NYSE trader said on Bloomberg this week (roughly): "people trying to turn this into a science are wrong; there is no science, just fear and greed". That attitude (rightly or wrongly) has served me well in sports betting. It's all been a learning curve and to be honest I'm just please to be in profit. But I've now had 7 consecutive days of profit.
Watch this space for a £7K loss for the remainder of this week
Last edited by Fortune500; Oct 28, 2008 at 6:07pm.
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