Betting Pro turning to Financials

This is a discussion on Betting Pro turning to Financials within the First Steps forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by tomorton Hi Fortune500 - First point is well done for being a gambler, making money as a ...

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Old Oct 28, 2008, 10:56pm   #16
Joined Oct 2008
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Originally Posted by tomorton View Post
Hi Fortune500 -
First point is well done for being a gambler, making money as a gambler, and admitting being a gambler. Gambling has a bad name but hats off to you if you've made a living at it.
THank you

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On to the second point though, I'm surprised you're letting your losing positions get so deep and riding them until they return to profit. This just isn't a strategy. It may work some times for you, maybe a lot of times for you, but eventually, you will be the pedestrian running for the gap between two buses - the consequences of a bad wrong decision are wipe-out?
Many thanks for your comments - I'm sure you're right in just about everything you say. I found that my losses mainly came when I had pre-determined the direction of flow (entering the market with a preconceived idea of what was happening). What I've learned over the last couple of weeks is that the FTSE is hugely unpredictable, and the DOW even more so (at least for me, and at least int he very short term). If a trade would go against me I would close out immediately. I was waiting for the big swing upwards (which rarely materialised), and instead realised short term losses. They all added up. Maybe my "stop loss" was set too high?

I agree entirely, the only reason why I was not closed out of a £7.5K loss was sheer luck (had the FTSE dropped 10 more points I probably wouldn't have refunded the account). Since then I have closed out of a few big downswings, but I definitely think twice before closing anything negative. Minute by minute these prices are up and down like yo yos. Constantly taking losses now seems complete madness now (why didn't I realise this before). Obviously the trick is to know when to close out and when not to. After just a few weeks I'm not claiming to be some kind of expert (completley the opposite), but it does strike me that stop losses set too high in volatile markets will only ever realise losses.

I'm using ShareScope to give a FTSE feed. Funnily I found that I could use that against CMC Markets - when the prices all turned green there was a fraction of a second I could jump on the CMC price before at sharp rise. Obviously they didn't like that. FB have no issue with that scalping practice. The only issue is that the futures move before ShareScope flashes, so there's zero advantage there now. I thought I could use the Vodafone prices to predict overal direction since Vodafone seemed to track it exactly, and I think over confidence in that wrong idea led to my initial losses.

I don't use graphs, per se, at least not to predict future movements. But I do use them to judge levels of support, combined with overal macro data. I've just been sitting watching the graph movng up and down, judging the level of support from the detailed market depth data supplied by FB, and make a call. Sometimes it's no call, sometimes short, but mainly long (based upon my overal premise that the market is roughly bottomed). I don't always get it right, but when I get it wrong I'm willing to sit on a loss. Invariably it's bounced back, but if it's gone to far I have closed and started again.

It's not scientific, but to be perfectly frank, I don't believe scientific principles apply to the human mind. As one NYSE trader said on Bloomberg this week (roughly): "people trying to turn this into a science are wrong; there is no science, just fear and greed". That attitude (rightly or wrongly) has served me well in sports betting. It's all been a learning curve and to be honest I'm just please to be in profit. But I've now had 7 consecutive days of profit.

Watch this space for a £7K loss for the remainder of this week

Last edited by Fortune500; Oct 28, 2008 at 11:07pm.
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Old Oct 28, 2008, 11:50pm   #17
Joined Feb 2002
Fortune500 - This is refreshing stuff - you're cutting your own path across the usual trading routes. If you'll share the journey I'm sure its going to be entertaining but I just hope your money management will enable you to survive long enough to keep us updated. Good luck
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Old Oct 29, 2008, 12:27pm   #18
 
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Originally Posted by Fortune500 View Post
THank you



Many thanks for your comments - I'm sure you're right in just about everything you say. I found that my losses mainly came when I had pre-determined the direction of flow (entering the market with a preconceived idea of what was happening). What I've learned over the last couple of weeks is that the FTSE is hugely unpredictable, and the DOW even more so (at least for me, and at least int he very short term). If a trade would go against me I would close out immediately. I was waiting for the big swing upwards (which rarely materialised), and instead realised short term losses. They all added up. Maybe my "stop loss" was set too high?

I agree entirely, the only reason why I was not closed out of a £7.5K loss was sheer luck (had the FTSE dropped 10 more points I probably wouldn't have refunded the account). Since then I have closed out of a few big downswings, but I definitely think twice before closing anything negative. Minute by minute these prices are up and down like yo yos. Constantly taking losses now seems complete madness now (why didn't I realise this before). Obviously the trick is to know when to close out and when not to. After just a few weeks I'm not claiming to be some kind of expert (completley the opposite), but it does strike me that stop losses set too high in volatile markets will only ever realise losses.

I'm using ShareScope to give a FTSE feed. Funnily I found that I could use that against CMC Markets - when the prices all turned green there was a fraction of a second I could jump on the CMC price before at sharp rise. Obviously they didn't like that. FB have no issue with that scalping practice. The only issue is that the futures move before ShareScope flashes, so there's zero advantage there now. I thought I could use the Vodafone prices to predict overal direction since Vodafone seemed to track it exactly, and I think over confidence in that wrong idea led to my initial losses.

I don't use graphs, per se, at least not to predict future movements. But I do use them to judge levels of support, combined with overal macro data. I've just been sitting watching the graph movng up and down, judging the level of support from the detailed market depth data supplied by FB, and make a call. Sometimes it's no call, sometimes short, but mainly long (based upon my overal premise that the market is roughly bottomed). I don't always get it right, but when I get it wrong I'm willing to sit on a loss. Invariably it's bounced back, but if it's gone to far I have closed and started again.

It's not scientific, but to be perfectly frank, I don't believe scientific principles apply to the human mind. As one NYSE trader said on Bloomberg this week (roughly): "people trying to turn this into a science are wrong; there is no science, just fear and greed". That attitude (rightly or wrongly) has served me well in sports betting. It's all been a learning curve and to be honest I'm just please to be in profit. But I've now had 7 consecutive days of profit.

Watch this space for a £7K loss for the remainder of this week
Regarding the scalping using a live feed and playing that against CMC. I have used a similar strategy to that too. Both on the ftse and the dow.

I have real time prices from a advfn feed. I have a mixture of random ftse shares on my live monitor. When a big move is taking place the whole screen will be flashing blue. Time this well on a developing setup (either long or short) and you have the perfect low risk entry.

Also use the live dow chart from advfn to enter trades via cmc on good setups.

No issues with fills with cmc. I do £5pp mostly on the dow in the evening. Adding in £5pp lots upto £35pp. However try to open a £10-15pp plus position or close it with cmc in a fast market and you will get delays. do it in £5pp lots and its pretty much instant fill.

Good to see others have picked up on the split second arbing opportunities available by having a paid for real time live market feed.
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Old Oct 29, 2008, 3:22pm   #19
 
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fortune, Don't sit on losses. this is the fast way to becoming POOR. I know !! one day you'll get wiped out if you hold losers.
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Old Nov 4, 2008, 12:42pm   #20
Joined Oct 2008
Fortune500 started this thread Update: Over the past week I've lost a few grand and won a few grand brining me up to approx £600 profit on my original £7000 bank a few weeks ago.

My general idea was to try to catch the large swing on the FTSE futures. This was working quite well until the middle of last week when volatility tailed off, leaving me contantly changing positions trying to catch the tide which turned out to be a series of waves. However, today I caught the large upswing in the FTSE bringing me back level.

I have therefore come to the conclusion that I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing, and am probably lucky to have my money left. I'll continue to watch the markets and learn more, looking for the indicators, but this experience is completley different from my sports betting where the indicators are obvious (to me - I can see what's happening on the pitch and position myself accordingly). I have no armoury of financial indicators, other than reading the press and listening to the marco news. I continue to hold the view that we've bottomed so will probably continue to long the FTSE sporadically.
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Old Nov 4, 2008, 6:19pm   #21
Joined Oct 2008
Fortune500 started this thread ...and continued to ride the FTSE long today, finally trading out at around 4630. Best day, doubling up and riding the bull! Now a 21% profit since the CMC Markets start.

Admittedly most of it is luck...
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Old Nov 5, 2008, 12:55am   #22
Joined Dec 2006
I find FB ladder confusing as its in constant motion and centralises everything leading to hella slippage. Also, how do you overcome paying £5/roundtrip/lot on the FTSE when scalping, would be good if their rates were a bit more competitive but its a start and good alternative to spreadbetting (I have also heard very many bad things from IG Index, CMC types lately)
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Old Nov 5, 2008, 10:33am   #23
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I find FB ladder confusing as its in constant motion and centralises everything leading to hella slippage. Also, how do you overcome paying £5/roundtrip/lot on the FTSE when scalping, would be good if their rates were a bit more competitive but its a start and good alternative to spreadbetting (I have also heard very many bad things from IG Index, CMC types lately)
Yes, that ladder interface takes some getting used to! It definitely jumps around too much. A better solution to that moving price issue is to fix the prices (no scrolling) when the mouse is on the ladder. Simple. (I've now suggested this to FB). Screenshot of the current FuturesBetting interface attached.

Re the £5 roundtrip - yes that is quite expensive. But I measure that cost against the benefit received from seeing the queue of the level 2 data. To be honest, I'm not sure how this service compares to others, except CMC (see posts earlier in this thread for my opinion).
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Old Nov 5, 2008, 9:18pm   #24
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Fair enought I suppose. FutresBetting it is then.
i use Futuresbetting.com, i trade long term and short term depending on the market,of late i have been scalping and fingers crossed have been making some money.
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Old Nov 5, 2008, 11:25pm   #25
 
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Originally Posted by RogueTrader888888 View Post
I find FB ladder confusing as its in constant motion and centralises everything leading to hella slippage. Also, how do you overcome paying £5/roundtrip/lot on the FTSE when scalping, would be good if their rates were a bit more competitive but its a start and good alternative to spreadbetting (I have also heard very many bad things from IG Index, CMC types lately)
i thought it was 2.50 round trip after you have made 200 trades in a month
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Old Nov 5, 2008, 11:34pm   #26
Joined Aug 2003
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I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing, and am probably lucky to have my money left. I'll continue to watch the markets and learn more, looking for the indicators, but this experience is completley different from my sports betting where the indicators are obvious (to me - I can see what's happening on the pitch and position myself accordingly). I have no armoury of financial indicators, other than reading the press and listening to the marco news.
Intersting. This made me think about the fact that I have NEVER lost at the casino and have been about 30times. I only bet small stakes and win on average about £80 each night i go and risk £40-50 max. I use some basic systems on each game that my dads friend taught me when i was young. Maybe im in the wrong game!!

However, if my trading experience since I started 5 years or so ago was a stock chart, I would feel farily bullish on it, so not time to change tracks yet
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