Betting Pro turning to Financials

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Old Oct 28, 2008, 8:47pm   #11
 
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Hold on a sec, this rookie comes on claims hes the dogs ********, has good reputation after 8 posts, recons cmc barred him almost instantly.HMMMMMMMMMMMMM
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Old Oct 28, 2008, 9:08pm   #12
 
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Originally Posted by Fortune500 View Post
Just an update to let everyone know how I was getting on.

CMC closed my account (effectively, by increasing execution delays to over 60 seconds unless trades went against me in which case they were instant) a few weeks ago. I had alomst lost 6K during my first week of trading, but through perseverance found a way to eek a profit and ended up 1K up.

For the last couple of weeks I've had an account with FuturesBetting (the service I've had so far has been exceptional - fast (almost immediate) execution, no requotes - must be similar to DMA). However after the first four days of trading I'd lost nearly all of my £7.5K deposit. I was long on the FTSE and on the Thursday of the first week my position came within 10 points of being closed out. The price bounced and I maintained my position overnight and when they reopened I'd turned a £2.5K trade loss into a £500 profit. Since then I've been makeing a consistent profit every day and now have regained most of my initial deposit leaving me in profit (overall) in my new financial trading career!

The key, I've found, is not to constantly close out losing position. Doing so, in effect, means that I was only ever realising losses and never the profits. I had closed so many losing positions that I had blown my entire balance. Now I let positions ride and only occassionaly close out if it appears that I've got it completely wrong.

I think the market is turning bullish and most of my trades have been long. Long may it continue!

I let one of my losses ride today thinking it would come back.

It didn't come back. It got 10 times worse.

I promptly cut my losses and closed it.

An hour later the market turned around and went my direction.

Bad day for me today. Learnt not to let losses ride. Yes the market came back in my favour, but it might not have. Whether it did or not, i lost a lot anyway.
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Old Oct 28, 2008, 10:36pm   #13
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Originally Posted by julian View Post
Hold on a sec, this rookie comes on claims hes the dogs ********, has good reputation after 8 posts, recons cmc barred him almost instantly.HMMMMMMMMMMMMM
I know what you're suggesting, but I'm not affiliated to FB. I don't often praise the services of a company; I used to praise Betfair, but now I'm caught in their new Premium Charge scheme (which effectly taxes me 20% on any profits) so won't be recommending them again. After my CMC debacle I had to find somewhere else to trade and FB have so far provided an excellent service (albeit taking a few days to open the account). I don't know enough about the other offerings (IB?) to move in that direction yet, plus I have a big book on economics to read before I move into new pastures!

I don't claim to know much about financials, but I do know that my sports betting experience will be of use since many of the posts I see on this forum are concerned with "mentality", "discipline", etc. (I know this is a stupid question, but how much do you guys/gals earn from financials trading. Are we talking mid 6 figures? Or is that only possible with financial backing of a company?)

Re the not closing: I'm used to my positions closing after 90 minutes, but financials stay open indefinitely (well months). I found that I was always materialising losses, never the profits. Example today: had a book a +£1100 on the FTSE futures before the price plumetted in line with the DOW from about 2pm. That entire profit vanished and turned into a £300 deficit. But I felt it would bounce back so didn't close out in the falling market. Indeed it did, and all profit was recovered. I'm not saying that always letting a loss ride is good, but in these volatilte markets who knows, especially with the valuations so low (how much lower will they really go).

Anyway, finished the day with a balance just a few quid lower than were I started, so quite happy Sorry to hear about your loss, UKtradegirl
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Old Oct 28, 2008, 10:54pm   #14
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Before anyone asks I do not know Fortune500, but I also use and praise FB as their platform is the real deal. I have worked in the markets for 27 years, mainly in commodities and have traded on floors, by phone in the offices and obviously more recently on screens. The FB platform is so simular as to the platform we used at Citigroup, both for speed and capability.
I used to have an account with Finspreads, which was great for a bit of fun, but when the markets have been moving they have recently, there is know way I could put up with the requotes and the book being marked against me. Why so many people put up with this c**p is beyond me. Before there was no choice (other than DMA), but now with FB you have the same but as a spreadbet.
The only reason I can think why people are not moving to FB is that the platform is different and you do not trade pounds per point, but lots. For me this was all normal but for many it woul not be, and can be confusing. I hope they stay small and continue to provide the excellent personal service, but I guess as they grow the service will become as unpersonal as the others. I hope not. I just hope they get charts soon. I am told Nov.
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Old Oct 28, 2008, 11:34pm   #15
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Hi Fortune500 -

First point is well done for being a gambler, making money as a gambler, and admitting being a gambler. Gambling has a bad name but hats off to you if you've made a living at it.

On to the second point though, I'm surprised you're letting your losing positions get so deep and riding them until they return to profit. This just isn't a strategy. It may work some times for you, maybe a lot of times for you, but eventually, you will be the pedestrian running for the gap between two buses - the consequences of a bad wrong decision are wipe-out.

If you're getting into regular losers, maybe your entry is off? Maybe you're being too counter-intuitive and the direction is 180 degrees out. Either way something very fundamental is going wrong. And now riogordo confirms that futuresbetting operate without charts! How do you plot your entry and exit points without chart feed?
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Old Oct 28, 2008, 11:56pm   #16
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Hi Fortune500 -
First point is well done for being a gambler, making money as a gambler, and admitting being a gambler. Gambling has a bad name but hats off to you if you've made a living at it.
THank you

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On to the second point though, I'm surprised you're letting your losing positions get so deep and riding them until they return to profit. This just isn't a strategy. It may work some times for you, maybe a lot of times for you, but eventually, you will be the pedestrian running for the gap between two buses - the consequences of a bad wrong decision are wipe-out?
Many thanks for your comments - I'm sure you're right in just about everything you say. I found that my losses mainly came when I had pre-determined the direction of flow (entering the market with a preconceived idea of what was happening). What I've learned over the last couple of weeks is that the FTSE is hugely unpredictable, and the DOW even more so (at least for me, and at least int he very short term). If a trade would go against me I would close out immediately. I was waiting for the big swing upwards (which rarely materialised), and instead realised short term losses. They all added up. Maybe my "stop loss" was set too high?

I agree entirely, the only reason why I was not closed out of a £7.5K loss was sheer luck (had the FTSE dropped 10 more points I probably wouldn't have refunded the account). Since then I have closed out of a few big downswings, but I definitely think twice before closing anything negative. Minute by minute these prices are up and down like yo yos. Constantly taking losses now seems complete madness now (why didn't I realise this before). Obviously the trick is to know when to close out and when not to. After just a few weeks I'm not claiming to be some kind of expert (completley the opposite), but it does strike me that stop losses set too high in volatile markets will only ever realise losses.

I'm using ShareScope to give a FTSE feed. Funnily I found that I could use that against CMC Markets - when the prices all turned green there was a fraction of a second I could jump on the CMC price before at sharp rise. Obviously they didn't like that. FB have no issue with that scalping practice. The only issue is that the futures move before ShareScope flashes, so there's zero advantage there now. I thought I could use the Vodafone prices to predict overal direction since Vodafone seemed to track it exactly, and I think over confidence in that wrong idea led to my initial losses.

I don't use graphs, per se, at least not to predict future movements. But I do use them to judge levels of support, combined with overal macro data. I've just been sitting watching the graph movng up and down, judging the level of support from the detailed market depth data supplied by FB, and make a call. Sometimes it's no call, sometimes short, but mainly long (based upon my overal premise that the market is roughly bottomed). I don't always get it right, but when I get it wrong I'm willing to sit on a loss. Invariably it's bounced back, but if it's gone to far I have closed and started again.

It's not scientific, but to be perfectly frank, I don't believe scientific principles apply to the human mind. As one NYSE trader said on Bloomberg this week (roughly): "people trying to turn this into a science are wrong; there is no science, just fear and greed". That attitude (rightly or wrongly) has served me well in sports betting. It's all been a learning curve and to be honest I'm just please to be in profit. But I've now had 7 consecutive days of profit.

Watch this space for a £7K loss for the remainder of this week

Last edited by Fortune500; Oct 29, 2008 at 12:07am.
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Old Oct 29, 2008, 12:50am   #17
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Fortune500 - This is refreshing stuff - you're cutting your own path across the usual trading routes. If you'll share the journey I'm sure its going to be entertaining but I just hope your money management will enable you to survive long enough to keep us updated. Good luck
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Old Oct 29, 2008, 1:27pm   #18
 
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Originally Posted by Fortune500 View Post
THank you



Many thanks for your comments - I'm sure you're right in just about everything you say. I found that my losses mainly came when I had pre-determined the direction of flow (entering the market with a preconceived idea of what was happening). What I've learned over the last couple of weeks is that the FTSE is hugely unpredictable, and the DOW even more so (at least for me, and at least int he very short term). If a trade would go against me I would close out immediately. I was waiting for the big swing upwards (which rarely materialised), and instead realised short term losses. They all added up. Maybe my "stop loss" was set too high?

I agree entirely, the only reason why I was not closed out of a £7.5K loss was sheer luck (had the FTSE dropped 10 more points I probably wouldn't have refunded the account). Since then I have closed out of a few big downswings, but I definitely think twice before closing anything negative. Minute by minute these prices are up and down like yo yos. Constantly taking losses now seems complete madness now (why didn't I realise this before). Obviously the trick is to know when to close out and when not to. After just a few weeks I'm not claiming to be some kind of expert (completley the opposite), but it does strike me that stop losses set too high in volatile markets will only ever realise losses.

I'm using ShareScope to give a FTSE feed. Funnily I found that I could use that against CMC Markets - when the prices all turned green there was a fraction of a second I could jump on the CMC price before at sharp rise. Obviously they didn't like that. FB have no issue with that scalping practice. The only issue is that the futures move before ShareScope flashes, so there's zero advantage there now. I thought I could use the Vodafone prices to predict overal direction since Vodafone seemed to track it exactly, and I think over confidence in that wrong idea led to my initial losses.

I don't use graphs, per se, at least not to predict future movements. But I do use them to judge levels of support, combined with overal macro data. I've just been sitting watching the graph movng up and down, judging the level of support from the detailed market depth data supplied by FB, and make a call. Sometimes it's no call, sometimes short, but mainly long (based upon my overal premise that the market is roughly bottomed). I don't always get it right, but when I get it wrong I'm willing to sit on a loss. Invariably it's bounced back, but if it's gone to far I have closed and started again.

It's not scientific, but to be perfectly frank, I don't believe scientific principles apply to the human mind. As one NYSE trader said on Bloomberg this week (roughly): "people trying to turn this into a science are wrong; there is no science, just fear and greed". That attitude (rightly or wrongly) has served me well in sports betting. It's all been a learning curve and to be honest I'm just please to be in profit. But I've now had 7 consecutive days of profit.

Watch this space for a £7K loss for the remainder of this week
Regarding the scalping using a live feed and playing that against CMC. I have used a similar strategy to that too. Both on the ftse and the dow.

I have real time prices from a advfn feed. I have a mixture of random ftse shares on my live monitor. When a big move is taking place the whole screen will be flashing blue. Time this well on a developing setup (either long or short) and you have the perfect low risk entry.

Also use the live dow chart from advfn to enter trades via cmc on good setups.

No issues with fills with cmc. I do £5pp mostly on the dow in the evening. Adding in £5pp lots upto £35pp. However try to open a £10-15pp plus position or close it with cmc in a fast market and you will get delays. do it in £5pp lots and its pretty much instant fill.

Good to see others have picked up on the split second arbing opportunities available by having a paid for real time live market feed.
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Old Oct 29, 2008, 4:22pm   #19
 
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fortune, Don't sit on losses. this is the fast way to becoming POOR. I know !! one day you'll get wiped out if you hold losers.
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Old Nov 4, 2008, 12:42pm   #20
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Fortune500 started this thread Update: Over the past week I've lost a few grand and won a few grand brining me up to approx £600 profit on my original £7000 bank a few weeks ago.

My general idea was to try to catch the large swing on the FTSE futures. This was working quite well until the middle of last week when volatility tailed off, leaving me contantly changing positions trying to catch the tide which turned out to be a series of waves. However, today I caught the large upswing in the FTSE bringing me back level.

I have therefore come to the conclusion that I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing, and am probably lucky to have my money left. I'll continue to watch the markets and learn more, looking for the indicators, but this experience is completley different from my sports betting where the indicators are obvious (to me - I can see what's happening on the pitch and position myself accordingly). I have no armoury of financial indicators, other than reading the press and listening to the marco news. I continue to hold the view that we've bottomed so will probably continue to long the FTSE sporadically.
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