Guy Cohen - Illuminati Trading System

This is a discussion on Guy Cohen - Illuminati Trading System within the First Steps forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by Keith-H Hi again everyone I’m still experimenting with the FlagTader system. Just virtual trades in the main, ...

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Old May 15, 2009, 12:06pm   #101
 
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Joined Apr 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith-H View Post
Hi again everyone

I’m still experimenting with the FlagTader system. Just virtual trades in the main, with the exception of one small ‘real’ trade that I placed with IG Index on 7th May.

Why am I still just mainly paper trading? .. you might well ask. Answer:

1. Because of the recent Earnings Season, from which we’re just emerging. This period, apparently, is not a good time for FlagTrading; and
2. I’m still building-up my confidence with the system, as IMHO it might prove expensive to dive-in head first with real money, without first discovering under what circumstances (why, when and where) a trade could go TU.

Now then, during the two-week period from April-14 to April-29 I selected 19 potential trades which the FlagTrader system identified; a mixture of both bull flags and bear flags. The FT system selected the overwhelming 'good-looking' majority as bulls [i.e. 16 bulls – 4 bears], no doubt because of the recent up-trending stock market since early March. I deliberately included a handful of dubious stocks, just to see what happens to these alongside those that, at first view and according to the FT system, should more-than-likely breakout in the right direction and become profitable. The ‘iffy’ ones are, of course, more likely to enter into a drawdown situation and ultimately perhaps prove to be losers.

Results so far:

10 positions have closed GTC (good till cancelled) either by way of a pre-determined (1) limit order to close, or (2) stop loss.

I have 5 winners - with combined gains of 1303 points; and 5 losers - with a combined loss of 798 points. Resulting in an overall net profit on these filled orders of 505 pts.

2 trades were not triggered – and are now abandoned. I’ve walked away from these.

2 trades were absolutely ridiculous – and even I don’t understand why I selected them! [.. I must have had a ‘senior’ moment at the time, eh!?] - so I’ll discount these and say no more.

Five are still active. Three of these have yet to reach my pre-selected profit target – and have formed/ are forming ‘rounded tops’ *. The other two are just drifting along, more or less going nowhere – and unless they breakout in the right direction with the next 24-48 hours, I will also abandon these.

* Looking back at the three that have moved up, then drifted back down into a potentially losing position: With the benefit of what this paper exercise has taught me, I without question set my initial profit targets far too high. With the further benefit of wonderful hindsight, it’s clearly better to take a smaller first profit of say 150-250 pts, rather than setting the initial target at a whopping 664 points (yes, really, – that’s how naïvely optimistic I have been).

SUMMARY

So in summary, I’m still getting to grips with working the system properly.

Since May-01 I have selected another 16 stocks [15 bulls – 1 bear]. I have been far more diligent in my selection process with these this time. As mentioned, one of them is for real and is now in my ‘Orders to Open’ with IG Index. The order has yet to be filled BTW.

It will be interesting to see how I get on with this further selection, bearing in mind a potential imminent retracement from this now overbought [allegedly] recent two-month stock market rally.

CONCLUSION

So as I see it, my count suggests that there might be up to six of us newbie FTers posting on this thread, namely:

- Jchohan (June)
- Pjchalmers (Paul)
- Chris_P_D (Chris)
- Martinl (Martin)
- Andys280176 (Andrew)
--------------------
- Keith-H (myself)

Have I got this right? – If so, then it would be good to share experiences with you guys – and with this in mind, please do not hesitate to contact me if you think exchanging knowledge would be to our mutual benefit.

Cheers for now

KEITH

PS

... and thanks [for nothing!] Depth Trade. FYI I've just carried some cursory research into a few recent threads where you have contributed yet more inspired and incredibly mature advice to other members of this forum. Like: how to prepare properly for an interview? [i.e. interviewing technique] .. in which your wise words of wisdom in post #7 are:



.. that's about all we need to know about you.
I'll be following you guys and your responses as I hope to be joining you soon. The more I read about it the more it appeals to me.

What sort of time are you guys putting in to this on a daily basis? The reason I ask is I have a couple of months of garden leave coming up and this is when I plan to do several hours per day swotting - but once I restart work again in August / September I will be restricted to a few hours in the evening - will this be sufficient for me?
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Old May 27, 2009, 11:01pm   #102
Joined Sep 2006
Hi

Just thought I would give an update on what I have been doing. As Keith said the market is just coming out of earning so no real action yet for this newbie. What I have been thinking is pretty much in line with what Guy has put on his blogs. Market is only worth watching just now. There are more bears than bulls but not seen that many good looking patterns yet.

I have been learning and observing more than anything and have been doing some practice trades over the last month on paper with quite good results. BTW if anyone in the UK is thinking of opening a trading account I would advise going with IGIndex and spread betting because optionsExpress is just too much of a pain to set up + you need a minimum $2000 to do any sell short trades with OX.

IGIndex can be funded with practically nothing and you can bet at a minimun 10p a point with guaranteed stop loss and no tax to pay on any earnings.

So here's is some of my trades I have registered over the last Month or so:

End of March 09 flags:

This one didn't break out so no win but no losses either:

ALLERGAN INC Share Price Chart | AGN - Yahoo! Finance

Not the best of flags and would probably have exited it anyway as it wasn't doing much

COOPER COS INC Share Price Chart | COO - Yahoo! Finance

Start of April. No breakout so no profit but no loss either:

PICO Holdings Inc. Share Price Chart | PICO - Yahoo! Finance

Not the best of trades this one:

CONAGRA FOOD INC Share Price Chart | CAG - Yahoo! Finance

This was a good one. From the start of April look where it went:

MCGRAW HILL COS THE Share Price Chart | MHP - Yahoo! Finance

Another bull:

PHILLIPS VAN HEUSEN Share Price Chart | PVH - Yahoo! Finance

Another bull:

ASHLAND INC (NEW) Share Price Chart | ASH - Yahoo! Finance

So there was many like this over the last month or so. The thing i've learned really is taking profits early is most wise.

Andrew
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Old May 27, 2009, 11:13pm   #103
 
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Joined Mar 2009
Thanks mate

Quote:
Originally Posted by andys280176 View Post
Hi

Just thought I would give an update on what I have been doing. As Keith said the market is just coming out of earning so no real action yet for this newbie. What I have been thinking is pretty much in line with what Guy has put on his blogs. Market is only worth watching just now. There are more bears than bulls but not seen that many good looking patterns yet.

I have been learning and observing more than anything and have been doing some practice trades over the last month on paper with quite good results. BTW if anyone in the UK is thinking of opening a trading account I would advise going with IGIndex and spread betting because optionsExpress is just too much of a pain to set up + you need a minimum $2000 to do any sell short trades with OX.

IGIndex can be funded with practically nothing and you can bet at a minimun 10p a point with guaranteed stop loss and no tax to pay on any earnings.

So here's is some of my trades I have registered over the last Month or so:

End of March 09 flags:

This one didn't break out so no win but no losses either:

ALLERGAN INC Share Price Chart | AGN - Yahoo! Finance

Not the best of flags and would probably have exited it anyway as it wasn't doing much

COOPER COS INC Share Price Chart | COO - Yahoo! Finance

Start of April. No breakout so no profit but no loss either:

PICO Holdings Inc. Share Price Chart | PICO - Yahoo! Finance

Not the best of trades this one:

CONAGRA FOOD INC Share Price Chart | CAG - Yahoo! Finance

This was a good one. From the start of April look where it went:

MCGRAW HILL COS THE Share Price Chart | MHP - Yahoo! Finance

Another bull:

PHILLIPS VAN HEUSEN Share Price Chart | PVH - Yahoo! Finance

Another bull:

ASHLAND INC (NEW) Share Price Chart | ASH - Yahoo! Finance

So there was many like this over the last month or so. The thing i've learned really is taking profits early is most wise.

Andrew
Cheers for that Andrew. How early do you take your profits mate? Do you follow Guys methodology in terms of target 1 and then target 2? Or do you just take out profits on target 1 and forget about target 2.
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Old May 28, 2009, 12:39pm   #104
Joined Nov 2008
Quote:
Originally Posted by swisdom View Post
Greetings one and all!!

This is a bookmark.

I've recently been made redundant - been looking to get into trading for ages and this seems a good opportunity to make a start (especially if I am about to get 2 months paid garden leave)

Thinking of going with Flag Trader but waiting for a spot of divine inspiration....someone convince me to take the plunge!!


Don't do it! Keep your money and save it!
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Old May 28, 2009, 1:32pm   #105
 
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Joined Apr 2006
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Originally Posted by disi View Post
Don't do it! Keep your money and save it!
thanks for the advice - I have duly disregarded it!

Guys - I am in. I have gone through the software and been doing a few paper trades. I am a complete noob

Agree with pain in the ass factor with the OX accounts - just a little bit concerned with IGIndex not safeguarding against initial leaps (albeit a rare occurrence)! Also like the Tradesense documentation from IGIndex which turned up in the post yesterday - very impressive looking info.

From what I have seen on ths disks...and from what I have seen when "paper" trading I am suitably excited and think this could really have some mileage in it but I guess time will tell

I'll be monitoring closely and hopefully we can be successful altogether - good luck peeps!
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Old May 28, 2009, 2:13pm   #106
Joined Oct 2008
I think it's good that we can exchange views & ideas like this; it's a learning curve for all us newbie FlagTraders at the end of the day. Thanks for the update Andrew - COO was one that I also spotted, but I'm glad that I decided not to trade it. I agree, taking early profits during uncertain times has got to be the way to go.

I do like your enthusiasm swisdom .. . Good luck to you too.

I think there could be a lot of 'action' coming within the reasonably near future - just my hunch.

And Guy, if you are reading this, please note that your blog updates (e-mail alerts) are really appreciated - . So keep 'em coming, as I for one take a lot of comfort from these regular communications from you.
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Old May 28, 2009, 4:48pm   #107
 
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Joined Apr 2006
To start with I am concentrating on Bull flags until I get my head around the whole system - the Bear flags are a little daunting (I know it's just the reverse but I want to be cautious here)

I am finding that it is very addictive and I want to keep checking my progress and thats something I need to curb as I don't want this taking over my life completely!

That said - I might be dipping my toe in tonight.....just for a very low risk taster...
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Old May 30, 2009, 9:58pm   #108
Joined Sep 2006
Italo said:

"Cheers for that Andrew. How early do you take your profits mate? Do you follow Guys methodology in terms of target 1 and then target 2? Or do you just take out profits on target 1 and forget about target 2."

No i'm even shrewder than that! I tend to think i'll take first profits about 70c later !!!

Nothing like being careful.

Someone said that there is a bit of concern with IGIndex regarding no real insurance against sudden leaps in the price. I think this can be managed, as long as you don't trade around earnings or any significant news events + trade during trading hours so that you are not hit by any leaps when the market opens. Guy said this is quite rare using the FT methodology but I can't vouch for that to be honest.

Actually I wonder if Guy got round to asking IGIndex to try and incorporate a tool that allows you to put in a limit for trading in IGIndex so you don't get caught by a big jump? I think he said he was suggesting improvements to IGIndex themselves.

Andy

P.S. A good thing to do is look through historical patterns and see if you can spot flags etc and think would I have traded that, what would have happened etc?

Last edited by andys280176; May 30, 2009 at 10:03pm.
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Old May 30, 2009, 10:08pm   #109
 
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what i'd like to know is, what does it have to do with Freemasonry?
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UK Equities Thread - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/uk-s...orgasbord.html
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Old Jun 10, 2009, 4:53pm   #110
 
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Joined Apr 2006
Well I am delighted to say I had my first day trading yesterday and ended up with one of my 3 trades becoming active and netting me a small profit. Admittedly I am only doing £0.10 / point but even so thats more than enough to keep me on my toes not being particularly wealthy at this moment in time!

I am keeping an eye on things though and it's really exciting stuff - just looking forward to finishing work on Friday and having plenty of time to myself to really concentrate on it (my other 2 trades are a million miles away from becoming active at present so I'm thinking I was a little too cautious on them!)

All in all I am going to continue with this and hope, between us, we can come out on top.

for what it's worth I went with IGIndex as it seemed more straightforward than Options Express - but haven't yet got TC2000 on my machine but might give that a go tonight

happy trading lads and lasses!
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