Hello to Forum

[Short Term Trader]

I am new to forum (1st post).... but not new to trading..

I traded heavily in the late 90's but not fulltime... i then had a career change and my trading time was reduced to nothing.

I am now finally able to return to trading...

Here is my question to the forum...

I am a systems guy........... I have been monitoring a trading system, that i have developed, actually i laid the ground work for this 10 yrs ago but have dusted it off.
I actually am in (Trade 5) from this list, currently..

believe it or not, here is the results and these are from a simple (ONE LOT) emini contract..

Trade 1: (+$2000)
Trade 2: (-$450)
Trade 3: (+$250)
Trade 4: (+$750)

Trade 5: short 1 esu (1281.50), stoploss at (1274.00).

now my question is,,,,,,,, how many trades should i monitor, observe, before i know if this will work, long term? (10) (50) (100) (1000) or never...

thank you for any answers..

 

[Jaydee]

Hi Short Term Trader

There is no definitive answer to this except the more you do the better. If it was a short term trading system that could mount up a few hundred trade in a few months, then I'd be pretty confident with the results if they were positive. Can you not back test as well to give you a bit more of an idea?

Best

JD

 

[Vrothdar]

From a psychological point of view it's probably better to look for signs of it not working. I'd go with jaydee's suggestion of back testing as far as you possibly can (using various data sources etc. etc.) to build up an idea of how your results should look. That way you've got something to compare your actual results to and be a little more objective about whether or not the system is still working.

 

[Short Term Trader]

thanks guys..

trade 5 ended with a 9pt win (+$450)

trade 6... short from 1261, knocked out at 1264, so a 3pt loss...

currently flat until monday...