New to trading and considering going head first into tomarrows NFP announcement

This is a discussion on New to trading and considering going head first into tomarrows NFP announcement within the First Steps forums, part of the New Traders category; I'm somewhat new to trading Forex, and I am considering jumping on the NFP announcement tomarrow. I hope this is ...

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Old Mar 6, 2008, 10:55pm   #1
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Default New to trading and considering going head first into tomarrows NFP announcement

I'm somewhat new to trading Forex, and I am considering jumping on the NFP announcement tomarrow. I hope this is the correct area for this type of question. Essentially, I concur with most analysis I have seen that the NFP report out of the US is going to show signs of the country heading fast towards recession. I have approx 5k in a forex account through GFT and am considering going long on EUR or GDP vs the dollar with a single standard lot size around 6AM EST 1300GMT. From what I understand NFP announcements can spark rediculous movements in the markets, and I am currious if this is a stupid newbie move. Being newer to the market I do not understand full consiquences of what may happen and have read the market can whip around hundreds of points in both directions in minutes post announcement of a NFP change. My main concerns are

1. I start work at 8:30EST and my only way to trade will be with stops and limits I set prior to leaving around 8.

2. I have read terrible reports of GFTs slippage durring news reports, however my understanding is this is quite common of most forex dealers durring major news announcements

3. If the Market does move in a whip-like fashion I may get stopped out and not reap the rewards of the risk taken.

Can I please get some tips for a newbie wanting to trade these events.

Thank you for any tips or guidance you can provide. Once again I'm sorry if I'm asking in the wrong place, I just thought this area to be more appropriate for my newbie question since I have never experienced these conditions before!

Best of luck to all
Cheers!
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Old Mar 7, 2008, 12:22am   #2
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Default Re: New to trading and considering going head first into tomarrows NFP announcement

Go for it, risk it all on the one trade, then off to Nevada for a spot of Roulette

Mate, you may well come out on top, but it's probably best to see market reaction to the nfp results first.
Either way, good luck with the gambling (in this instance not trading imo)
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Old Mar 7, 2008, 3:33am   #3
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Default Re: New to trading and considering going head first into tomarrows NFP announcement

If I can be bothered to be nice to such ridiculous 'trading attempts', I'd say:

westernforce has got it spot on, this is pure gambling in its upmost form, do not take the trade, if you win you'll gamble more next time and it will hurt you financially and very much emotionally, but, trying to help people throughout the years with seemingly no luck(people dont listen to what they dont want to hear),

You'll hear this instead:

The above post roughly translates into:

I'll Take the risk, it can only go one way, if i'm wrong this time i'll try it next time, cant be wrong twice, its 50-50, if I start to lose too much I'll quit out when I like, i'll move my stoploss so i dont get stopped out, I'll look to take a profit when it goes back to the highest price i saw earlier, I wont settle for less now i've seen how high it can go, how hard can this be, everyone i speak to say it's been made complex by institutions but what do these big corporate bodies know about trading, it's rather quite easy everyone say's, this is what everyone else is doing.

Eventually one day you'll look back at this post and read it slightly different:

The above post will then read like this:

its only money, whats going wrong, cant believe my luck, its like the markets out to get me, the market seems to know exactly when i trade and screw me, maybe the company i'm trading through is screwing me, now i'm getting screwed, i'll get my money back, i just need some more, it's only money, its only my life savings, my house, my car, my relationships, wonder how westernforce and this guy who wrote this post who nobodies knows is doing, wish i'd have listen to this post now, now i can understand what it says but its too late, my life is fu..........
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Old Mar 7, 2008, 3:36am   #4
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Default Re: New to trading and considering going head first into tomarrows NFP announcement

Placing your first trade based on "predicting" the possible result of NFP is lunacy.

What matters on news announcements is not what is expected but what the result is against what that expectation is. So if everyone is expecting a bad result then the price is already reflecting it. If the result is better than forecast and you have taken the opposite position then you will probably lose all your money in just one trade.

In my view taking trades based on attempting to predict market direction will result in total loss of account without exception.


Paul
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Old Mar 7, 2008, 4:27am   #5
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Default Re: New to trading and considering going head first into tomarrows NFP announcement

Quote:
Originally Posted by MistaCrowley View Post
I'm somewhat new to trading Forex, and I am considering jumping on the NFP announcement tomarrow. I hope this is the correct area for this type of question. Essentially, I concur with most analysis I have seen that the NFP report out of the US is going to show signs of the country heading fast towards recession. I have approx 5k in a forex account through GFT and am considering going long on EUR or GDP vs the dollar with a single standard lot size around 6AM EST 1300GMT. From what I understand NFP announcements can spark rediculous movements in the markets, and I am currious if this is a stupid newbie move. Being newer to the market I do not understand full consiquences of what may happen and have read the market can whip around hundreds of points in both directions in minutes post announcement of a NFP change. My main concerns are

1. I start work at 8:30EST and my only way to trade will be with stops and limits I set prior to leaving around 8.

2. I have read terrible reports of GFTs slippage durring news reports, however my understanding is this is quite common of most forex dealers durring major news announcements

3. If the Market does move in a whip-like fashion I may get stopped out and not reap the rewards of the risk taken.

Can I please get some tips for a newbie wanting to trade these events.

Thank you for any tips or guidance you can provide. Once again I'm sorry if I'm asking in the wrong place, I just thought this area to be more appropriate for my newbie question since I have never experienced these conditions before!

Best of luck to all
Cheers!
The days of bracket trading news (which kinda sounds like you want to do) are well gone im afraid, slippage is your main enemy now, brokers could only get whacked for so long! Not to mention you need to be at a screen come 1,30.

At best your likely get slipped! At worst the trade will go well and youll think its the way forward!

If i were you I wouldnt do it! (from someone who did it when the tools where available)

GL

edit. just reread your post. You want to predict before the announcement!! .. NO!
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Old Mar 7, 2008, 4:49am   #6
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Default Re: New to trading and considering going head first into tomarrows NFP announcement

At worst the trade will go well and youll think its the way forward! (quote from darktone)

I'll second that.
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Old Mar 7, 2008, 6:43am   #7
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Default Re: New to trading and considering going head first into tomarrows NFP announcement

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Shepherd View Post
At worst the trade will go well and youll think its the way forward! (quote from darktone)

I'll second that.
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Old Mar 7, 2008, 6:51am   #8
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Default Re: New to trading and considering going head first into tomarrows NFP announcement

Beginner's luck is bad luck. Got that right.
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