Advice wanted from any experienced traders

This is a discussion on Advice wanted from any experienced traders within the First Steps forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by dbphoenix Mediocre systems may become profitable with the "right" money management rules applied on paper, but not ...

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Old Mar 3, 2008, 1:46pm   #11
 
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Originally Posted by dbphoenix View Post
Mediocre systems may become profitable with the "right" money management rules applied on paper, but not in the real world. A beginning trader who can't turn a consistent profit is not going to have the confidence to trade, with discipline, a strategy that shows only occasional profit. Even if his money lasts long enough for him to withstand the losses, this is an unnecessarily torturous road to sustained profitability and perpetuates the emotional responses that marginal traders bring to their work.

Db
I do agree with you but surely without due consideration to Money Management which encompasses such things as Position Sizing, % risk per trade, etc, one does not have a "complete "or most probably long-term profitable system.

I say this as when I first started out I put too much emphasis on the obvious elements of a System such as Entry and Exit conditions, etc.

But I definately appreciate that one needs to focus on the basics first!!

All IMO ....
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Old Mar 3, 2008, 2:41pm   #12
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I do agree with you but surely without due consideration to Money Management which encompasses such things as Position Sizing, % risk per trade, etc, one does not have a "complete "or most probably long-term profitable system.

I say this as when I first started out I put too much emphasis on the obvious elements of a System such as Entry and Exit conditions, etc.

But I definately appreciate that one needs to focus on the basics first!!

All IMO ....
I'll give you a little hint.

I don't use money management. Money management usually go hand in hand with statistical systems because they factor in the losing runs (or draw downs as they are known) as approximate worse case scenarios. But since even the latter cannot be totally predicted (remember it's statistical), you can NEVER be sure that you won't get totally wiped out. See what I'm getting at?

I do have a use for statistics though: I have spent many pleasant days learning advanced probability theory and playing with strange weird calculations that the general population is not interested in.
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Old Mar 3, 2008, 4:44pm   #13
 
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Originally Posted by Chorlton View Post
I do agree with you but surely without due consideration to Money Management which encompasses such things as Position Sizing, % risk per trade, etc, one does not have a "complete "or most probably long-term profitable system.
Eventually. But the trader whose success rate is low and who has seven or eight losers in a row is not likely to let that winner "run" when it finally arrives. He's going to grab that profit as fast as possible since his next trade may well be another loser, and his account is decreasing with each successive loser. Thus his losses outweight his gains and he goes broke long before he achieves any confidence in his system.
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Old Mar 3, 2008, 5:31pm   #14
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Eventually. But the trader whose success rate is low and who has seven or eight losers in a row is not likely to let that winner "run" when it finally arrives. He's going to grab that profit as fast as possible since his next trade may well be another loser, and his account is decreasing with each successive loser. Thus his losses outweight his gains and he goes broke long before he achieves any confidence in his system.
hi db & chorlton

agree, think SR mentioned on another thread, I now it makes BSD cringe but.....


you can learn to run a profit and its relative to targets etc my average winner only around 7 pts with a high hit rate

but theres at least 3 trades over +30 and a few more 12-16 ish in the last month to

you can"t improve anything if your not in it, you have a chance to re-group if you are trading high SR method.

If its a 40% SR and 10 losers come along which is to be expected once in a while(1% chance) = your heads in bits if not fully switched on and confident in method etc

How do you learn to hold your nerve on match ball at snooker

keep getting/putting yourself there and try again, perhaps with a different approach / method / rule, once you have done it, next time is a little easier, you have positive expectancy / growing confidence in your ability and method = how can I improve it, can it be improved etc etc

Just don"t damage your bank imho or your F..cked !

game over
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Old Mar 11, 2008, 12:00am   #15
 
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While DBpheonix's advice about sorting trading strategy out is important, I can't help but agree with Chorlton, in that in my own experience during the 'struggling years' having a profitable method/system just wasn't enough. Why? Because I didn't have the discipline and emotional maturity to trade it consistently. I'm convined that going into the market with any one of the 3 pillars (Method, Money Management & Mindset) unclear is a recipe for failure.

You can have a great method, but while you are developing the discipline and emotional strength to trade it, its your money management that's going to protect you. And yes you may screw up 20 times in a row but if its only a small percentage of your account (ie. 1% or 2%) then you can keep going until you start to get it.
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Old Mar 11, 2008, 6:54am   #16
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Anyone called Blueclaret and living in London sounds like he supports the right football team to me so I'll give my opinion.

You need to get all three aspects of trading organised, money management and psychology.

As far as your 50K minimum goes, no you don't need that much. If you will be risking 2% on a single trade and once you take commissions and slippage into account you would need to be careful if you have less than 15-20K IMO. (In any case I thought in Come into my Trading Room he suggests that US 20K should be a minimum from memory?)

With regard to how you should trade then it partly depends on how much time you can devote to it and how regularly you can monitor your trades. If you have a full time job then day trading is not for you. Swing trading could work in that case, holding trades from 3-10 days perhaps. That's what I do.

For chart sites I can't help you much. I use Metastock with an EOD datafeed. That works for me and gives me more flexibility than a website ever could but my account is large enough to easily adsorb the cost.

You need to devise a few strategies and start paper trading. Just simple rules. From your reading and from this site you can pick up plenty. Then test them in the market. I'm sure you can make a profit from backtesting but try making the same trades in real time and you will see that it is harder than it looks!
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Old Mar 11, 2008, 10:30am   #17
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blueclaret started this thread Thanks for your responses and yes i am a happy hammer! You're right about the 20k, i think later he mentions 50k as being more advisable. I am using pro realtime for charts which is pretty good so i may stick with that for now. Swing trading is what i am aiming to do as day trading looks too dangerous and plus i have a full time job.

I was thinking of going to a seminar which i have never done before. I have only read books and the internet. Does anyone have any recommendations? I know which ones to avoid ie wininvesting. Robbie Burns (Naked Trader) looks quite good so i may try his unless anyone has any other suggestions.
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Old Mar 11, 2008, 10:41am   #18
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Excellent to have another hammer here. Do you know Knees up Mother Brown - West Ham United FC Online: Home

For the seminars I read Robbie Burn's book a while back. Based on his website the seminar is just for a day I believe? So depending on the price may be worth it. His timescales for trading are probably longer than most people on here. I don't know of any other seminars where you are, as you can tell I'm a long way from the UK. Off to one of Alexander Elders trading camps myself in a while. Gerald Appel should also be there. He is the inventor of MACD so with those two together I would be surprised if i can't improve my results.
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Old Mar 11, 2008, 10:54am   #19
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Just another point. As you have read "Come into my Trading Room" a good progression from there would be "Entries and Exits" by the same author. I don't often see reviews of that book. Maybe it means that some people don't like it but I think it is an excellent book to read when you are beginning. It discusses winning and losing trades from 20(?) traders, each with their different ways of trading. Could give you some ideas.
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Old Mar 11, 2008, 2:41pm   #20
 
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Originally Posted by Indie Cator View Post
While DBpheonix's advice about sorting trading strategy out is important, I can't help but agree with Chorlton, in that in my own experience during the 'struggling years' having a profitable method/system just wasn't enough. Why? Because I didn't have the discipline and emotional maturity to trade it consistently. I'm convined that going into the market with any one of the 3 pillars (Method, Money Management & Mindset) unclear is a recipe for failure.

You can have a great method, but while you are developing the discipline and emotional strength to trade it, its your money management that's going to protect you. And yes you may screw up 20 times in a row but if its only a small percentage of your account (ie. 1% or 2%) then you can keep going until you start to get it.
I agree that having a supposedly profitable system is not enough. The supposedly profitable system will not be actually profitable without competent management.

However, a number of books written by non-traders advance the notion that money management will save the trader regardless of how crappy his system is, assuming he has one, and large numbers of traders who don't trade reinforce this nonsense on message boards. Beginners cling to the notion because it enables them to avoid the work of developing a strategy, much less a trading plan, and to believe that all they have to do is manage those losses. At least until the money runs out.

If people spent a fraction of the time learning how to trade that they do rationalizing their failures, the percentage of trader wannabees who succeed would rise dramatically.
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