Is it really possible to make money in this trading lark?

This is a discussion on Is it really possible to make money in this trading lark? within the First Steps forums, part of the Reception category; Longshot & Anley, The gauntlet has been thrown, all you have to do (which so far you have failed to) ...

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Old Oct 21, 2004, 11:33pm   #129
Joined Oct 2004
Longshot & Anley,

The gauntlet has been thrown, all you have to do (which so far you have failed to) is post something to back up your arguments. Then we will have an idea of what you are saying, or could it be that you do not have anything to show us as you have not traded in the last 6 months or so? At least we have tried to show the newbies what we truly believe and how we do it.

We would prefer to give ourselves a fighting chance rather than die a slow death losing 1% a day until the broker phones to make a margin call.
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Old Oct 21, 2004, 11:47pm   #130
 
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Amazing, now he is claiming a 91% win rate. Bravo, we all believe you now
Dont you just love guys who claim silly things like, "one trade a day, for 80 days, and 91% win rate AFTER THE FACT" ??? Then posts hindsight charts showing where he made his trades. How many times have I seen THAT before???

Tell ya what, with a 91% win rate, it should be trivial to prove us all wrong.

For the next few days, why dont you call out your trades AS YOU ENTER THEM, and we can check the timestamps and prices. Then call out your EXITS as your enter them too. The prices better match very very closely.

With a 91% rate, it will become very very obvious if you are indeed achieving this in no time.

Go ahead, shut us all up, all us stupid experienced traders who know better.

POST your signals in real time and it will become very obvious, very quickly, if you have a 91% win rate in the next fews days.

Go for it.


Quote:
Why do you say trading is hard, you must be doing something wrong.
Love to see a chart of your trades
Because trading has been proven to be hard, thats why. Your little fantasies are just that, and I wager you will NOT post any of your 91% win rate system live for any period of time because they only exist in hindsight. Anyone can mark a graph and claim they entered here and exited here, blah blah. Go ahead, prove us wrong. It would take little effort on your part, so why not rub our faces in it? Lets see if you can get 9/10 on the next 10 trades. Lets go super trader.





I fully expect SILENCE on this trading challenge from this point on
Make my day...prove me wrong This should be fun. Watch him run now, so typical.
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Old Oct 22, 2004, 12:08am   #131
 
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I have failed to post something to back up my argument?

Tell ya what, precisely list every claim I have made that I havent backed up and I will address them.

Waiting....



Quote:
Originally Posted by LION63
Longshot & Anley,

The gauntlet has been thrown, all you have to do (which so far you have failed to) is post something to back up your arguments. Then we will have an idea of what you are saying, or could it be that you do not have anything to show us as you have not traded in the last 6 months or so? At least we have tried to show the newbies what we truly believe and how we do it.

We would prefer to give ourselves a fighting chance rather than die a slow death losing 1% a day until the broker phones to make a margin call.
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Old Oct 22, 2004, 2:07am   #132
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Quote:
Originally Posted by juanbyte
The optimum amount you should risk per trade depends on the win/lose and risk/reward ratios of the system you are trading, it is calculated using Kellys formula
Kv = P – (1-P)/Wl
see also http://hquotes.com.historical-stock.../simulator.html
I'm very interested but can't get to the link, juanbyte. Sorry to trouble you, but could you possibly post it again somehow, or in a different format or whatever, or tell us how to find it?
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Old Oct 22, 2004, 3:51am   #133
 
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Try this: http://tinyurl.com/6uzws

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roberto
I'm very interested but can't get to the link, juanbyte. Sorry to trouble you, but could you possibly post it again somehow, or in a different format or whatever, or tell us how to find it?
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Old Oct 22, 2004, 7:07am   #134
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The Kelly formula has been used successfully in "true odds" probability scenarios. However, it can cause massive losses on single event scenarios where the true odds change dramatically and I have seen cases of people losing a large amount when this has happened.


Paul
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Old Oct 22, 2004, 7:51am   #135
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Can someone convert £500 into £2.36m in 6 months.....based on the information I have which is by no means all encompassing the statistical probability is very small but existent...

Can someone get a success rate of 91% again , as above.....

but, neither of these statements is what people want to hear ,because it does not prescribe a specific outcome...they want to hear for definite it can or it can't because the inbetween bit , the uncertainty bit , the not knowing for sure bit, is the bit that gives them the most trouble ...

are there a lot of people making money out of trundling out either of the above DEFINITE outcomes..there certainly are..and it's all irrelevant....one or two people reading this thread will get something that they can take away that will change their approach for the better..most will be the cannon fodder that keeps the market churning...there is a definite outcome for you...

Is trading easy , or is it hard..why ,why do you need to know?...does knowing change what it will be ? ...logically..does it ? Either outcome taken as a fixed idea can only lead you to either a position of overconfidence , or underconfidence and neither will be related to your actual ability.

In truth I've never before come across an industry so in love with it's own idea of being the ultimate challenge..it's as though setting up that idea gives those who do succeed the ability to tell the world I'm one of the very few....yet statistically this industry from the information I have is not different to most others...that is a few will achieve outstanding success, many will fail or simply struggle to keep their heads above water and inbetween will be legions achieving a point of success along the continuum inbetween......but who cares about reality , it's no where near as romantic the notions that are marketed.....

Cheers
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Old Oct 22, 2004, 7:59am   #136
Joined Jan 2004
[QUOTE=longshot666]A

Here is some reality for you:
1) Approximately 90% of fund managers cant even beat the market over the long term.
2) These guys work 80 hours a week trying to beat the averages
3) These guys have millions in capital available to them for market research
4) These guys have MIT PHD statistics majors crunching numbers on millions of dollars worth of super computers day and night.
5) These guys have rooms full of programmers simulating every idea they can come up with instantly.

Longshot,

Perhaps thats's their problem. Perhaps thats why they don't win. They do it 'wrong'. Perhaps they are running around in cricles so fast they nearly catch their own tails.

I have had the pleasure of working in some of the organisations (IT dept) that operate in this way and rather than be impressed by what they do, you should realise that things don't cut as clear as you suggest. Allot are pure amateurs.

Many 'do it' by the seat of their pants, many refuse to take a risk and arb everything in sight, , this is no problem if yo have a large IT budget and hoards of guys in Bangalore, others have such interminable office politics that I am surprise they can even hit buy and others , yes you will love this one, trade off data which is 3 days old. No names but this was one of the biggest Swiss names you'll hear of.,a multii billion SWFR company. They couldn't work out why they were getting nowhere. In the end they sent for a guy selling a GANN package.

So if they don't win, what you need to do is NOT do either what you suggest most of them do, nor do what I have seen some of them do.

Question ,why, when they don't beat the average don't they put all their dosh in a Woolwich FTSE tracker and go out to lunch ?? That would make life simpler for them .

Rgds

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