Do I need to backtest?

737

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Hello all,
I was recently talking to a friend who seems to be successful by back testing his strategies. I am having a lot of trouble developing a system. I tend to trade by just looking at price action on a few familiar stocks. I tend to win about as much as I lose. I am getting frustrated. I was wanting some input on weather back testing a system is really necessary and if so, what software is good for beginners.
 
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