Day Trading & Forex Forum

The Dutch Clown

A short one this week.

So every once in a while one faces contrary analysis from different techniques and this is a period where it is quite a challenge to get to the bottom of a structured analysis.

In the EOD picture we have found some time ago a Positive Reversal with a price target above 500 we are on track and short/medium AEX targets below 300 seem to be out of the picture. It might very well come as a bit of a scare that the Elliott Wave Analysis explicitly keeps a 400-375 target range open (mind you it’s not the preferred scenario mere a possibility that has to be taken into account).

The intraday movements gave us a Positive Reversal with a target that missed about one index point. The route was accompanied by disproportional movement in the oscillator which caused alert signals and the movement was even more disproportional which let to a Negative Reversal signal. I must admit that I am on uncovered territory here because the literature does not handle complex examples. Although the Range Rules must be added to the picture to clear some of the dark clouds it’s not enough to the high standards I use. This is the part where I consider myself fortunate to be able to combining several different techniques in order to be able to escape.

Let’s take a look at the monthly graph first(first attachment), the struggle with the 2 x 1 line in June and July, just keep it in mind that when the AEX moves down a bit further so you will know where we are and what to expect next. The EOD graph shows (second attachment)a bit more exciting as the AEX closed last Friday just under the 409 trend line upwards and above the trend line downwards from 478.

The intraday graph we will watch through the day.

The cross check DJIA from 11670 has wave three (3downwards starting at 11256 with price targets 10538 10320 first time indication is July 25th and second is August 9th. Within this wave an other wave three has been formed starting at 11038 (3:3) with price targets 10608 10476 and time indications 24th and 25th of July.

S6.

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The Dutch Clown

Let's review the intraday graph.

The previous mentioned PR target is still in the market and although the move upwards has shown a disproportional movement in the oscillator and even formed a NR signal the oscillator was picked up in the RR and it looks right now that the AEX is going to meet the PR price target.... the best thing that can happen is, that this is done with negative divergence so it will be a confirmation for the NR....

To be able to trace the movements I have added a trend line from 435,09 and we will see when, how and where....

Fun or what?!

PS het lijkt wel een vag..na monoloog...

II.

We have a winner the price target calculated 17-7 is in.....

III.
It's going to be a close call and better wait a bit before getting the shorts in place... the NR signal is under attack......

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Hook Shot

Clown no direct comment on AEX but ......looks like heading into a wall very soon. This momentum is outrageous ....I'm sitting on my hands until it runs out of steam. In the past I've been rewarded by Philips and Asml - now I'm scared about buying them and they're not high enough for me to short them.

H

The Dutch Clown

The Negative Reversal Signal was blown out of the water yesterday. The RSI was OB and is today cooling down towards the (435,09) trendline in the graph. Note that this trendline is meeting the 1 x 2 line (422,71 green).

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Pacito

Dear Clown,
didn't post much. Still trying to understand the book of Brown. Indeed, chapter 9 is very interesting. Pity that she stops where it should become real good. Takes quite some time to fully comprehend what she is trying to say. I don't like to pick up some pieces, I want to understand the lot. About lines from the past, see a ten year linedrawing. Next year should be very interesting.
To your health,
Pacito

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The Dutch Clown

Dear Pacito,

It's an introduction to Gann so see it as that and an invite to study more...

See Chapter 8 look at an intraday hourly graph.. compare today 16.00u with yesterday 10.00u do the math of chapter 8 and you will know...

Cheers....

The Dutch Clown

Well Pacito,

What can I say ... are you in space... or still doing your math.... at this point we are 0.72 index point away..... ready to do more maths's??

Like in a Dutch saying ..... the money is lying in the street... you just have to pick it up...

Bulls eye...

Pacito

Clown,
doing math? I'm building a 100 story building using Elliot, Fibonacci, Gann, RSI. I feel like just starting throwing concrete at the 25st floor. Don't forget the dust I have to pick up in between. Brown is sometimes very helpfull but sometimes frustrating. Especially when she states a circle divided in sixes where I can see it's divided in eights. Nevertheless I'm progressing. Yesterday, sitting on the terrace enjoying the liquid inside of an old bottle, I realized I'm a lousy architect. Planning a 110 story skyscraper and noticing that when I proceed the way I did so far, I'll end up having a pyramid of 89 levels. At the moment I'm putting lines through squares and I get an uncanny feeling that sometime next year ( ca january 30), there will be a dramatic change. For the moment I will continue trying to get everything on the same top at the same date. Meanwhile I'll be happy to read your contributions.
Cheers
Pacito