What Happens When You Try to Time the Market?

This is a discussion on What Happens When You Try to Time the Market? within the Educational Resources forums, part of the Commercial category; We've just published a new T2W article called " What Happens When You Try to Time the Market? " by ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Jan 13, 2017, 2:00pm   #1
The Staff are paid members that perform various roles such as editorial, advertising, support or technical work.
 
T2W Bot's Avatar
Joined Dec 2004
What Happens When You Try to Time the Market?

We've just published a new T2W article called "What Happens When You Try to Time the Market?" by James D. Di Virgilio .

Quick Summary: James Di Virgilio discusses the performance findings for those who pursue a strategy that relies on predicting market timing.

PS. Don't forget to rate the article after you've read it and share your comments on this thread.
T2W Bot is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks! The following members like this post: sigmund1
Old Jan 13, 2017, 8:47pm   #2
Joined Feb 2002
Re: What Happens When You Try to Time the Market?

Interesting research, and I found some more interesting material from Berkeley online which supports Odean's conclusions.

I recognise some traits from my early days as a shareholder, before I committed to TA and spreadbetting. Needless to say, I don't invest that way any longer.
tomorton is online now   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 13, 2017, 8:49pm   #3
 
dbphoenix's Avatar
Joined Aug 2003
Odean's field of study, however, is behavioral economics, not market timing. Without knowing anything about the models used, the conclusions drawn by this individual are meaningless.
dbphoenix is online now Training literature vendor (e.g courses / spreadbetting guides / eBooks)   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 15, 2017, 1:53am   #4
Joined Jul 2014
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbphoenix View Post
Odean's field of study, however, is behavioral economics, not market timing. Without knowing anything about the models used, the conclusions drawn by this individual are meaningless.
Incorrect, there is no market timing field of study in academia and there is no evidence that he is ignorant of market timing data. Therefore it is a red herring and an ad hominem to suggest that Odean's conclusions are meaningless.
petetrades is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 19, 2017, 4:08pm   #5
 
Mr. Charts's Avatar
Joined Sep 2001
As far as I can see, this article refers to "average" traders/investors and there is no further breakdown.
To demonstrate that the average is poor in relation to indices is fairly meaningless as there are plenty of us who do rather better than the "average". To put it another way, those who have developed and learnt enough to trade for a living, by a self-selecting process of consistent success, are rather better than indices and funds, the returns on which are laughable. Maybe ok for very long term investing if you are sufficiently diversified, but still the returns are poor in comparison.
It's a bit like those academics who believe in EMH and can "prove" it. Skills, knowledge and experience shatter the academic theories in the real world.
__________________
Mr. Charts
Full time US Share Trader
Follow me on Twitter twitter.com/MrChartsJoyson

Contributor to T2W's Trading FAQ Book
http://www.trade2win.com/books/trading-faqs

T2W interview

http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/a...ichard-joyson/
Mr. Charts is online now Coach/Trainer   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 20, 2017, 4:09pm   #6
Joined Dec 2004
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbphoenix View Post
Odean's field of study, however, is behavioral economics, not market timing. Without knowing anything about the models used, the conclusions drawn by this individual are meaningless.
I read a lot of the stuff Odean has done as part of my own PhD work. To call his conclusions meaningless is unfair. Yes, the methods matter and I have my own challenges to elements of what he's done. We have to keep in mind that he (and his research partners) have been among the first to look at trading rather than investing. The field of study is still in its relative infancy. As with any newer subject, the first step is to look at things in broad terms. Eventually more narrow exploration occurs - which is beginning to bubble up now. Lots of work yet to be done.
__________________
John Forman, PhD
Author - Trading FAQs, The Essentials of Trading
Rhody Trader is offline Training literature vendor (e.g courses / spreadbetting guides / eBooks)   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 20, 2017, 5:02pm   #7
 
dbphoenix's Avatar
Joined Aug 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhody Trader View Post
I read a lot of the stuff Odean has done as part of my own PhD work. To call his conclusions meaningless is unfair. Yes, the methods matter and I have my own challenges to elements of what he's done. We have to keep in mind that he (and his research partners) have been among the first to look at trading rather than investing. The field of study is still in its relative infancy. As with any newer subject, the first step is to look at things in broad terms. Eventually more narrow exploration occurs - which is beginning to bubble up now. Lots of work yet to be done.
I didn't say that Odean's conclusions were meaningless. I said that the conclusions drawn by the author of this article that were allegedly based on Odean's work were meaningless. Given DiVirgilio's shallow understanding of market timing, I suspect that he didn't get past Odean's study summaries, assuming that he actually read anything at all of the source material rather than others' opinions of it.
dbphoenix is online now Training literature vendor (e.g courses / spreadbetting guides / eBooks)   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 20, 2017, 11:31pm   #8
Joined Jul 2014
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbphoenix View Post
I didn't say that Odean's conclusions were meaningless. I said that the conclusions drawn by the author of this article that were allegedly based on Odean's work were meaningless. Given DiVirgilio's shallow understanding of market timing, I suspect that he didn't get past Odean's study summaries, assuming that he actually read anything at all of the source material rather than others' opinions of it.
Your first sentence in your previous post referred to "Odean", the second referred to "this individual", so it was not clear whom "this individual was". I think you're jumping to a lot of conclusions...which is making me consider jumping to the conclusion that your conflict of interest as a vendor is influencing your judgement.
petetrades is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)