What Happens When You Try to Time the Market?

This is a discussion on What Happens When You Try to Time the Market? within the Educational Resources forums, part of the Commercial category; Anyone that enters the markets becomes a trader. the question is how long you want to hold? 5mins. 5 months. ...

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Old Feb 1, 2017, 8:36pm   #41
 
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Anyone that enters the markets becomes a trader.

the question is how long you want to hold?

5mins. 5 months. 5 years.
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Old Apr 14, 2017, 7:28pm   #42
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Warren buffet invests , hedge funds try to time the markets .The real proof is on the net .


http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/25/buffe...0-billion.html

https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourc...is+it+possible
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Old Apr 15, 2017, 7:16am   #43
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Originally Posted by tomorton View Post
Interesting research, and I found some more interesting material from Berkeley online which supports Odean's conclusions.

I recognise some traits from my early days as a shareholder, before I committed to TA and spreadbetting. Needless to say, I don't invest that way any longer.
The same results apply to short term trading , hence most of these timing failures end up as vendors , but these vendors are really succesful at one thing .


https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourc...of+day+traders

Day Trading Success Rate…only 4.5%?Failure rate?
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Old Apr 22, 2017, 8:30pm   #44
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The way people are taught to trade in zero sum game , will eventually lead to losses and ruin.See how market timing does not work on chart below.

Look at chart :zero sum results , it leads to negative sum after handicaps of mental edge , trading edge , spreads and mistakes.
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zero-sum-game.jpg  
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Old Apr 22, 2017, 8:33pm   #45
 
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Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
The way people are taught to trade in zero sum game , will eventually lead to losses and ruin.See how market timing does not work on chart below.

Look at chart :zero sum results , it leads to negative sum after handicaps of mental edge , trading edge , spreads and mistakes.

the chart is hard to see what you are saying...too much pink? pls explain
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Old Apr 23, 2017, 8:48am   #46
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Originally Posted by piphoe View Post
the chart is hard to see what you are saying...too much pink? pls explain
The market calls the first shot ,price moves in a direction , you follow the price and enter a trade.At this point price breaks down , remains there or continues in your direction.Move may be end soon or be last leg of move .

In all cases you hace a 33% chance of trend continuation.The image shows , 80% ofthe time you enter a move it chops , the price stalls.It is called getting chopped out.


Markets trend about 20% of the time and spend the other 80% grinding through trading ranges, pullbacks and other counter trend action that tests boundaries.
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Old Apr 24, 2017, 6:41am   #47
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The vendors are arguing , that market timing works , Warren buffet does not time the markets , he does better without it.

This is classic example of market timing not working.

Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
Dax trade above , if I lose I lose 62 points on dax trade call option 12100

If price falls this week either I may add at lower prices or repeat this trade at lower prices
Last week this trade closed at loss of 62 ticks option expired at 0 , price below 12100, but if you see image , the price opened this week at 12250.

This proves that " market timing does not work"
Attached Thumbnails
market-timing.jpg  

Last edited by foroom lluzers; Apr 24, 2017 at 7:07am.
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Old Apr 26, 2017, 6:44am   #48
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http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indi...ml#post2898384

Timing the entry is the strategy of making buy or sell decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to catch the optimum trend breakout. The entry may be based on technical or fundamental analysis.

Here I been sitting on this trade for hours , hardly any move .Sometimes it wiill do nothing for days , it may breakdown and move later without me.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trad...ml#post2898020

Market timing is ineffective for short term traders including day traders , price action trading and other short term gambling like options.
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