What Happens When You Try to Time the Market?

This is a discussion on What Happens When You Try to Time the Market? within the Educational Resources forums, part of the Commercial category; Originally Posted by piphoe the chart is hard to see what you are saying...too much pink? pls explain The market ...

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Old Apr 23, 2017, 8:48am   #46
Joined Apr 2017
Quote:
Originally Posted by piphoe View Post
the chart is hard to see what you are saying...too much pink? pls explain
The market calls the first shot ,price moves in a direction , you follow the price and enter a trade.At this point price breaks down , remains there or continues in your direction.Move may be end soon or be last leg of move .

In all cases you hace a 33% chance of trend continuation.The image shows , 80% ofthe time you enter a move it chops , the price stalls.It is called getting chopped out.


Markets trend about 20% of the time and spend the other 80% grinding through trading ranges, pullbacks and other counter trend action that tests boundaries.
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Old Apr 24, 2017, 6:41am   #47
Joined Apr 2017
The vendors are arguing , that market timing works , Warren buffet does not time the markets , he does better without it.

This is classic example of market timing not working.

Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
Dax trade above , if I lose I lose 62 points on dax trade call option 12100

If price falls this week either I may add at lower prices or repeat this trade at lower prices
Last week this trade closed at loss of 62 ticks option expired at 0 , price below 12100, but if you see image , the price opened this week at 12250.

This proves that " market timing does not work"
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market-timing.jpg  

Last edited by foroom lluzers; Apr 24, 2017 at 7:07am.
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Old Apr 26, 2017, 6:44am   #48
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http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indi...ml#post2898384

Timing the entry is the strategy of making buy or sell decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to catch the optimum trend breakout. The entry may be based on technical or fundamental analysis.

Here I been sitting on this trade for hours , hardly any move .Sometimes it wiill do nothing for days , it may breakdown and move later without me.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trad...ml#post2898020

Market timing is ineffective for short term traders including day traders , price action trading and other short term gambling like options.
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Old Apr 27, 2017, 2:57pm   #49
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https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=Is...iming+possible

Market timing example for live trades , called in advance .Here a loss is suffered because market timing does not work!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gene...ml#post2899272

Short eur usd at 82 stop 100 points

close -50 loss , because i made a mistake , ecb press conference was missed on radar

Here I sell at 82 , but price ends up higher , then it later goes lower!
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eusd.jpg   eur-usd2.jpg  
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Old May 2, 2017, 10:23am   #50
Joined Apr 2017
You can time the markets , if you know what is going to happen next , but this causes mindset /mess in psyche issues.

In conclusion Mark Douglas, one of the greatest trading educators and authors of our time , taught us the opposite of market timing .His 10 rules contradict with the trading for market timing .

1. Be rigid with rules, flexible with targets.

2. Focus on opportunities that provide an edge.

3. Trade free of expectations of being right or wrong.

4. Synchronise your mind to the truth of the market.

5. Beleive in uncertanity (The market can do anything)

6. Be flexible so as to perceive with the greatest degree of clarity and objectivity of what the market is offering from its perspective.

7. Be careful what you project into the future because nothing has got the potential to create more misery and unhappiness than unfulfilled expectations.

8. To make money, trade without fear but also overconfidence.

9. The degree to which you think you know, or assume you know or need to know what is going to happen next, equals to the degree you will fail as a trader.

10. What you perceive in the market is limited to what you know less that what is blocked by fear.
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Old May 2, 2017, 11:32am   #51
Joined Apr 2017
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Originally Posted by petetrades View Post
Your first sentence in your previous post referred to "Odean", the second referred to "this individual", so it was not clear whom "this individual was". I think you're jumping to a lot of conclusions...which is making me consider jumping to the conclusion that your conflict of interest as a vendor is influencing your judgement.
true!

The vendors who sell these holy grails , are depedent on making others believe that market timing is easy.Their own success depends on the illusion of market timing!.

Vendor: Believe in yourself and what you’re doing to help your customers.

Why should anyone buy anything from anybody if the person from whom they are buying doesn’t even believe in it? There’s a reason why confident salespeople are more successful.

Last edited by foroom lluzers; May 2, 2017 at 12:22pm.
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Old May 21, 2017, 6:29am   #52
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Most traders can not time the markets , it is a misconception .They make mistakes in real time.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/educ...g-traders.html
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Old May 21, 2017, 10:32am   #53
Joined Feb 2002
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Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
Most traders can not time the markets , it is a misconception .They make mistakes in real time.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/educ...g-traders.html

Most DAY-TRADERS can not time the markets.
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Old May 21, 2017, 11:05am   #54
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Originally Posted by tomorton View Post
Most DAY-TRADERS can not time the markets.
Swing traders can time the markets , if they wait for price to come to their levels , it may temporarily go past their level , than after a wait for a few days , weeks or months , the price goes in their intended direction.

This is how traders cansuccessfully time the markets .So maybe , with your good grammar and english , you can write an article on succesfully timing the markets.
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Old May 21, 2017, 12:39pm   #55
Joined Feb 2002
I don't write articles. I like to share what I do and how I do it so that others might learn and so that my approach benefits from criticism and suggestions.

Maybe a whole article is unnecessary if developing traders follow the simple principles -
1. do not day-trade
2. in an uptrend be long, in a downtrend be short, if there's no trend be in cash
3. set stops to get you out when the market takes the less probable direction

The detail of how to do these things isn't terribly important or interesting.
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