What Happens When You Try to Time the Market?

This is a discussion on What Happens When You Try to Time the Market? within the Educational Resources forums, part of the Commercial category; Originally Posted by tomorton sigmund1 - Its an old story that the individual can't beat the market. But the people ...

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Old Jan 22, 2017, 1:05pm   #17
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Originally Posted by tomorton View Post
sigmund1 - Its an old story that the individual can't beat the market.

But the people who say this is impossible depend on borrowing money from those individuals. So naturally they're not going to say you can do it yourself, make more profit and save yourself a lot of commission.

After all, imagine Ford or General Motors or BMW suggesting we build our own cars.
And yet, people do......
I've looked and I've looked but can't find one, not one!

That was, someone to TAKE THE BET.

Warren Buffett, 8 years ago made a Million Dollar Bet with anyone on the planet.

To win the bet all they had to do was out perform the SP500 over the next 10 years.

I've looked but I can't find any private trader who took the bet on.

Now, that's gotta tell you something!
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 2:47pm   #18
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Originally Posted by sigmund1 View Post
I've looked and I've looked but can't find one, not one!

That was, someone to TAKE THE BET.

Warren Buffett, 8 years ago made a Million Dollar Bet with anyone on the planet.

To win the bet all they had to do was out perform the SP500 over the next 10 years.

I've looked but I can't find any private trader who took the bet on.

Now, that's gotta tell you something!

Doesn't tell me anything. I never listen to anything Warren Buffett says, its irrelevant to what I do and believe. I believe a profit can be made from trading. Do you believe it can't?
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 3:24pm   #19
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Doesn't tell me anything. I never listen to anything Warren Buffett says, its irrelevant to what I do and believe. I believe a profit can be made from trading. Do you believe it can't?
A profit is always made from trading, by either the brokerage or the entity taking the other side of the trade, that's not the question, nor is this just a matter of believing a certain thing and wish fulfillment. The question is whether consistent and high (outperforming stock indexes) returns are possible from trying to time the market by trading.

If you read the Soros article I linked to his long-term holdings (investments) were up signifigantly, counteracting his post-Trump trading boner, this fits my theory that most traders have alternative and consistent sources of income (which trading is not). Most traders wouldn't have the capital or diversified assets (non-speculative liquid assets) to recover from such a stupid trade if they lost 4% of their entire net worth in a month of trading.

There is no evidence that this can be done and the ones who push for propagating this meme that it can be done have a vested interest in it, i.e. they are selling something related to trading or they are deluding themselves with false beliefs to justify their gambling habit.
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 3:48pm   #20
 
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I have lost £20,000-80,000 each of the many years I have daytraded futures or stocks, commissions to the brokerage got from me around £5,000-7,000 per year. Even when I'm profitable during some years (years always end as negative even if positive) I feel like I'm treading water or I need to make more and more to make up for the expenses due to how much it costs just to daytrade futures.
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some questions:-

1) How many years have you been trading?
2) In ES, what kinda size do you trade relative to acc? (notional / acc)
3) Have you ever ever learned to 'manage risk with size' as Don puts it?
4) What does the sum of money lost mean to you?
5) Do you look for confirmation before you trade?
6) Do you like to use stops to manage risk?
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1. 5+ years
2. Maximum margin w/deep discount futures bucketshops to the default high margins w/more conservative brokerages.
3. No
4. Everything at the moment, hoping to get back on my feet with a profitable year once I find some money.
5. Sometimes, this can make me too late and guarantee a loss.
6. I don't like to, but ES has less stop runs than CL, so I do use stops on the ES at times but am quite aware this is a magnet for HFT.
This is more likely the source of your problem than vendors.

You are responsible for your failures, no one else.

Grow up.
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 3:58pm   #21
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This is more likely the source of your problem than vendors.

You are responsible for your failures, no one else.

Grow up.
Keep selling the dream, buddy
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 4:29pm   #22
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Doesn't tell me anything. I never listen to anything Warren Buffett says, its irrelevant to what I do and believe. I believe a profit can be made from trading. Do you believe it can't?
I see some confusion.

Just sometimes, people who listen learn something!

Buffett made a ONE MILLION DOLLAR BET that no-body can out perform the SP500 over a 10 year period.

Buffett put his money where is mouth is.

What's difficult to understand?
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 4:41pm   #23
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Originally Posted by sigmund1 View Post
I see some confusion.

Just sometimes, people who listen learn something!

Buffett made a ONE MILLION DOLLAR BET that no-body can out perform the SP500 over a 10 year period.

Buffett put his money where is mouth is.

What's difficult to understand?


I'm not concerned what Warren Buffett believes or does or says. I was trying to elicit what you believe about private trading. Still interested.
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 9:30pm   #24
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I'm not concerned what Warren Buffett believes or does or says. I was trying to elicit what you believe about private trading. Still interested.
Most traders lose money, some traders make money.
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