Stage Analysis - finding the 'breakout' shares

This is a discussion on Stage Analysis - finding the 'breakout' shares within the Educational Resources forums, part of the Commercial category; We've just published a new T2W article called " Stage Analysis - finding the 'breakout' shares " by Alan Saunders ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Nov 16, 2006, 8:44am   #1
The Staff are paid members that perform various roles such as editorial, advertising, support or technical work.
 
T2W Bot's Avatar
Joined Dec 2004
Stage Analysis - finding the 'breakout' shares

We've just published a new T2W article called "Stage Analysis - finding the 'breakout' shares" by Alan Saunders.

Quick Summary: A study by Alan Saunders of ShareHunter.com on the successful share selection techniques promulgated by Stan Weinstein in his best selling book “Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets”

PS. Don't forget to rate the article after you've read it and share your comments on this thread.
T2W Bot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 16, 2006, 8:44am   #2
Joined Apr 2006
simple, superb and powerful way to get in and out of markets. certainly will pay traders if they adhere to these rules.

newtrader22
newtrader22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 16, 2006, 10:11am   #3
 
Jack o'Clubs's Avatar
Joined Sep 2005
Quite a good article, although my problem with the Weinstein book is that markets or stocks rarely look like the perfect examples always given of the four-stage cycle. e.g is the weekly FTSE chart at the moment in Stage 2 or entering Stage 3? And how would one have interpreted May, when the market fell through its 30-period MA? Was that the start of a Stage 3 move, and if so would you have stayed out of the market since then (thus missing some quite nice gains?).

Also, given the timescales implied (analysis is from weekly, not daily charts), I kept thinking of Pascal's maxim: Man's unhappiness stems from his inability to sit quietly in a room. The article talks about the problems of over-trading, but trading at this glacial pace brings its own challenges!
Jack o'Clubs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 16, 2006, 1:56pm   #4
 
dbphoenix's Avatar
Joined Aug 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack o'Clubs
Quite a good article, although my problem with the Weinstein book is that markets or stocks rarely look like the perfect examples always given of the four-stage cycle. e.g is the weekly FTSE chart at the moment in Stage 2 or entering Stage 3? And how would one have interpreted May, when the market fell through its 30-period MA? Was that the start of a Stage 3 move, and if so would you have stayed out of the market since then (thus missing some quite nice gains?).
The article's fine as far as giving a general overview of Weinstein, which in turn is a general overview of "stage analysis" (all of this, with the exception of Weinstein's use of the 150dma, is Wyckoff's work). But, as you point out, getting down to the details of putting this information into practice and making money with it is another matter. At the very least, one must have some sort of definition of trend, trend change and trend reversal in order to make the necessary real-time decisions.

For instance, using your example of the FTSE, it never broke its trendline, and even though it did drop below its 150dma, it never dropped below the last swing low. Therefore, there was no reversal. The primary choice, then, became to wait or to exit (or at least lighten up), but not to short.

Quote:
Also, given the timescales implied (analysis is from weekly, not daily charts), I kept thinking of Pascal's maxim: Man's unhappiness stems from his inability to sit quietly in a room. The article talks about the problems of over-trading, but trading at this glacial pace brings its own challenges!
Keep in mind, though, that the lives of people who trade off weekly charts do not revolve around trading; they aren't sitting in front of their screens all day long obsessing over every tick. Directly translating EOD and EOW strategies such as Weinstein's and Darvas's to intraday trading is its own challenge.

Db
Attached Thumbnails
image4.gif  
__________________
Trading Price

Last edited by dbphoenix; Nov 16, 2006 at 4:14pm.
dbphoenix is offline Training literature vendor (e.g courses / spreadbetting guides / eBooks)   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 20, 2006, 11:27am   #5
 
5 Posts
Joined Nov 2006
I liked this article. Of course in real world not everything is easy and it's often difficult to find clear stages. But the idea is good to shape the long term scenario. Could be good also to decide when hedge or not a long only portfolio
Mirkopor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 20, 2006, 5:55pm   #6
Joined Mar 2003
Breakouts - I would say that they are still a firm tried-and-tested way of trading the markets.


Thanks

Damian
damianoakley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Dec 25, 2006, 9:12pm   #7
Joined Jul 2006
Have a look at www.chart-breakouts.co.uk any english traders out there,pretty fine record to date,not sure what software they're using but pulled some right good trades out this last month although it has been a strong market.
kitster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Dec 26, 2006, 8:28am   #8
Joined Nov 2001
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbphoenix

Keep in mind, though, that the lives of people who trade off weekly charts do not revolve around trading; they aren't sitting in front of their screens all day long obsessing over every tick. Directly translating EOD and EOW strategies such as Weinstein's and Darvas's to intraday trading is its own challenge.

Db
Yes, that was the first important point to strike me. There is a difference between the kind of trader being addressed in his article and those daily and intraday traders mostly posting here.

I do both types and I must say that longer term trading is the most profitable, the least work intensive and the backbone of my own strategy.

I cannot tell when the next big "crash" is going to come, so cannot advise those with a few thousand to go out and buy shares in the New Year, but I have been in shares since the mid sixties and have ridden several setbacks- the oil scare of the seventies, now a distant memory and, of course, the 1987 one-- but I would advise a youngster with a few thousand to invest for his pension enhancement and not speculate in looking for Holy Grails in the futures markets.

I haven't read past page 1, yet, I read more slowly these days! But I intend to, I'm never too young to learn something.

Happy and Prosperous NewYear.

P.S. I'm not 87,yet. Just 74!

Split
Splitlink is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 7, 2007, 4:44pm   #9
Joined Feb 2007
Read this article:


http://www.accuinvestor.com/bollingersqueeze.html

Basically the whole point of the Bollinger squeeze is to identify breakout points.
maolivie is offline Training literature vendor (e.g courses / spreadbetting guides / eBooks)   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 19, 2013, 8:09am   #10
 
1 Posts
Joined Apr 2013
Re: Stage Analysis - finding the 'breakout' shares

Just remember to keep it simple! While your fussing with all of your technical date, I just look and trade or leave for the day! WOW, what a simple concept.
VegasMan is offline Coach/Trainer   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Technical Analysis for FTSE 100 shares dewbpy Technical Analysis 9 May 3, 2009 11:03am
"Finding" shares to trade with TA Bung77 First Steps 2 Jan 4, 2007 1:13pm
NXG about to stage major breakout trendmagic Commodities & Money Markets 4 Dec 20, 2006 5:14am
Getting to the interview stage trader_dante Trading Firms 5 Jun 1, 2006 5:45pm
How can Price Volume Analysis help Breakout Plays? babymush Technical Analysis 19 Jan 15, 2005 5:56pm

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)