Welles wilder Delta phenomenon

Has anyone had any sucess with Welles wilders Delta phenomenon.

I just bought the book ?

I read this years ago, and couldn't see the logic in it, the cycles seemed far too open to interpretation, but I've never tried to trade with it.

rog1111

Peter I used it for a while (about a year) and had as many wins as losses. So with good money management, you could do OK.

However, although I enjoyed the basis of the research, in practise, it's largely untradeable.

Couple that with the EXTREMELY subjective interpretations of turning points and inversions from the DSI monthly newsletter AND that fact that we in the UK get it 6 weeks late AND that it takes a lot of mucking around to switch the HIGH-LOW points on what seems little more than a whim from Wilder Central in order to match the performance of the system with reality and you're better off tossing a coin.

I'm not disputing the possibility that the underlying basis of Delta has substance - not at all.

There's also the issue of the UK representative who markets it. A bit short on personal communications skills...

However, it's a good read and the software is fun to play with.

Thks for your comments on Delta Tony,

So far I get the impression that your interpretation may be right.

I also had problems getting a reply from The UK rep. So far I havent had any replies to my questions on Delta.

I was trying to decide if its worth the effort of further study.
Regards
Pete

It has good and bad about it, one resolution of the turning point inversion 'on a whim' is not to bother - the day should show a trend reversal, so as long as you know which way it's going so far.... <g>
Far more of a problem, in my view, is that there's no telling how far the move ought to go, it is far to easy to bail out far too early or late and produce a loss whilst 20:20 hindsight shows what appears to be completely obvious signals.
I'd have to say that it is quite expensive to buy into, the book costs enough but the membership is rather higher, and I can't say it adds noticeably to ones trading armoury. It's clever, and you can see it working quite often, but turning that into a profit is far from easy - when you think about it picking the trader is almost the easiest part of it all, timing the exit is much harder in my view and you cannot just let Delta run point to point with your money attached.
Delta's own newsletter writer seems to have very mixed luck with it, he is presumably spending 24/7 trying to get it right - I have to agree with Tony's general theme here, it's clever but it's not particularly useful.

Dave

can someone explain briefly what the delta phenomenon is ?

A cycle based system which allocates different cycle periods to different stock (and indices) sectors.

There are a number of High and Low points (different numbers for most sectors) which are a designated and fixed(-ish) period of time apart.

This, in principal, gives a trader the 'edge' in determining trend changes, especially when Long, Medium and Intermediate points converge.

Welles Wilder (he of RSI fame, etc) met a chap who claimed he could predict markets, who then persuaded WW he could indeed do that. WW seems to have bought the chap out (Jim Sloman, or soemthing like that) as the chap is now selling a different system that is, presumably, even better.

WW markets Delta via his own website/company, who will expalin it all in a book for nearly £200, you'll then realise it's extremely painful to try to do it manually (not least because finding the turning points isn't as easy as you might hope) and that you need the software - buying into all of that is a over a grand, it then costs a couple of hundred a year to maintain.

Essentially the system predicts dates when the market, share, commodity price chart will change direction - turning points. Each market is geared up to turn according to a set of points long predetermined, and spookily enough when you see the charts in action you'll find a good many that seem to fit pretty well, You'll also find 'point 1' in the series suddenly becoming apparent in the noise, and realise many points do in fact occur awfully close to prediction, and repeatedly. The question is whether 'repeatedly' equals 'often enough', how close is close, and a small problem where the chart turns upside down occasionally.

(That last point sounds more facetious than intended <g>)
I don't want to bad mouth it, it's one of those things where you will believe it's more than mere fancy - the points occur as planned quite often - I've yet to encounter anyone who is making if pay, but it's marketted as totally hush hush so you won't find a lot of charts posted for example.

Dave