Payroll Turd Polishing

This is a discussion on Payroll Turd Polishing within the Economic & Fundamental Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Interesting observation TW, and appears to work most times… Well, I did mention fireworks didn’t I…..? Must have had a ...

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Old Nov 5, 2004, 5:19pm   #41
 
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Talking Re: Payroll Turd Polishing

Interesting observation TW, and appears to work most times…

Well, I did mention fireworks didn’t I…..? Must have had a Guy Fawkes premonition……

337,000 huh.?.. during the week that Dubya got back in…?…smacks of manipulation….it would be unpatriotic to let an employment black cloud spoil the party wouldn’t it…..?!

Will be looking for a downwards revision next month….

And I don’t care that my guesstimate was a mere 212,000 out – it was closer than some of the experts…..!...........

Anyway, now that the Presidential election is decided and the price of oil has fallen, the market really needs something new (or secondhand..) to worry about, so on the basis of today’s blowout jobs number, interest rates must rear their ugly head..

Quote:
" A rate hike from the Fed in November "is virtually assured and another 25 basis points in December is extremely likely."
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Old Nov 5, 2004, 5:27pm   #42
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Interesting to see how the dollar rally was sold into, just goes to show how bearish it really is.
I am hoping this will mark a turning point for the bonds, it is about time i have been fighting it for weeks. Should up the volatility if it can follow through next week.
If only we could have figures like that every day....
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Old Nov 5, 2004, 9:48pm   #43
 
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zigglewigler started this thread Yanks will soon see their faces in this turd!

Unemployment of 5.5% remains unchanged.

Construction employment up by 71,000. Just a few more hurricanes and the US economy might go somewhere!

Professional and business services employment rose by 97,000 in October,
with temporary help services accounting for about half of the increase
(48,000). Not more crappy temp jobs. Well as long as people are working up to the next bs report.

Another 62,000 in health and education, and 32,000 in local education. Another shovel load onto the deficit.

But of course, manufacturing dead in the water. Who cares if Americans don't make things anymore?! Chinamen do it more cheaply, so let them!

Oh dear, retail employment unchanged, are the Yanks running out of plastic power?

Wall Street got the excuse it needed. Turd buffed and sparkling. But still something stinks.
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Old Feb 4, 2005, 1:53pm   #44
 
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Smile Re: Payroll Turd Polishing

Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 189,000, in line with the average gain of 186,000 over the past year, according to a survey of 36 economists

Quote:
"All indications are that job growth continues to accelerate," said Tony Crescenzi, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak & Co
"It seems likely that job growth will trend higher toward 225,000 to 250,000 per month in the coming months, even if this trend is not captured in January,"
Quote:
Rick MacDonald, head of research at Action Economics, is also predicting a big number: 200,000.
Quote:
"We continue to think that the risk to our forecast (160,000), if there is one, is to the downside," said Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. fixed income economist for Deutsche Bank
Well, they've all been a couple of hundred thousand out before, but the pundits keep guessing a number that is often unguessable.....

But I can guess with the best of them - I'm going for 175,000...!

Anyone else up for a punt........?........

(data released at 13.30gmt)
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Old Feb 4, 2005, 2:11pm   #45
 
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Oh go on then - 165k and a drop to 10540.

It would be funnier to have a good number like 190k, a bull gap n trap peaking around 10630 and then a drop to 540 though.

Fruigi, purveyor of cheap cornettos.
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Old Feb 4, 2005, 2:16pm   #46
 
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comedy guess @ sub 100,000 for me...

would prefer a higher number as im short cable at the mo...
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Old Feb 4, 2005, 2:25pm   #47
 
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Put me down for 103K.
Fingers crossed.
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Old Feb 4, 2005, 2:29pm   #48
 
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Talking Re: Payroll Turd Polishing

Yes FC – it’s all part of the daily comedy that keeps us smiling and adds to the pocket money, I hope........

Fruigi Cornetto – The NFP number is always a double edged sword for the market which makes the reaction a tad unpredictable, but I’ve got hunch that it might want to test that 61.8% fib retrace of the recent 500 point downmove at 10680 ish

The other option is a consolidation between 615/540 ish…….

The other option is an all out tank to 400 to consider the implications of the big H&S..

Options…..options….

Regards, Tradesmarti Baloni
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Old Feb 4, 2005, 2:36pm   #49
 
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Sorry FC. Hope you closed your short.
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Old Feb 4, 2005, 2:37pm   #50
 
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sod this for a laugh.. trying repeatedly to break the 1.8920 region.

might add a small amount to a short here... (longer term view being taken)
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