Payroll Turd Polishing

This is a discussion on Payroll Turd Polishing within the Economic & Fundamental Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Consumer Debt - thats another thing that winds me up. When Im at the bar trying to get the beers ...

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Old Apr 6, 2004, 5:15pm   #33
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Consumer Debt - thats another thing that winds me up.

When Im at the bar trying to get the beers in, why o why are all the chicks always paying with their plastic?? Its a round of drinks for crying out loud love! Whats wrong with cash??? Its quicker for a start which means I can continue binge drinking during the archaic hours imposed on me alreasbfggubhg;iash.

[EDITORS NOTE - Unfortunately BBB has died in mid post after blowing a gasket in pure rage over the tiny things in life that he really shouldn't have let bother him]

R.I.P.
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Old Apr 6, 2004, 5:19pm   #34
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BBB,,


L O L


nice one
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Old Apr 6, 2004, 5:31pm   #35
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Hidden news from the BLS
April 4, 2004
By Kevin Murtaugh
Why would BLS admit there is an "estimated growth in population" and then turn around and reduce the population? While out-migration has become commonplace in Silicon Valley, this would be the first report claiming the USA is experiencing net out-migration!?! Could it be more and more people just escaping detection because they dropped out of the workforce? Or could there be political motivation?
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_c...tent_idx=31571
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Old Aug 6, 2004, 8:35pm   #36
 
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Well, the 300,000 'whisper number' didn't quite get hit today then.............!?.............

a mere 268,000 out......................

Big Al (G'span) will be telling us that the 32k NF payrolls reported was yet another "aberration" when he hikes the rate by another .25% next week............
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Old Aug 6, 2004, 11:27pm   #37
 
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And in the data today, unemployment fell 0.1% when they had been expecting no change?
See other details below for other figures. Seems to me, the market didn't want to know the details it was just any ole excuse


The jobs report did have a bright spot: According to the survey of
60,000
households, employment grew by 629,000 in July, the biggest gain
since January
2003.
Most economists give greater credibility to the establishment
survey, which
showed 32,000 net jobs in July.
"You can't ignore some pieces of data and pay exclusive attention to
others,"
Mankiw said. "The truth lies in between those two estimates."
Labor Secretary Elaine Chao also emphasized the strong employment
gains in the
household survey in her official comment on the report.
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Old Aug 7, 2004, 10:19am   #38
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Look out for revisions next month then! I don't understand how the unemployment rate went down though?
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Old Nov 5, 2004, 11:19am   #39
 
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Quote:
When the government issues its closely watched employment report Friday morning, it's expected to show payrolls increased in October in part because of a rebound from a spate of hurricanes.
The average forecast of 39 economists surveyed by is for nonfarm payroll gains of 175,000 jobs after a disappointing gain of 96,000 in the previous month. The estimates range from 85,000 to 325,000.
Plainly a volatile little number and it is November 5th - a recipe for fireworks.....!?

Will those calling it 'up' be stuffed by high oil prices and the presidential election uncertainty that may suppress hiring.....?

I'll go for 125,000 and be prepared to be 100,000 out either way......

Any other estimates......?...... (with or without reasons......)
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Old Nov 5, 2004, 12:00pm   #40
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I attach a list of Eurodollar price changes on the day before and on the day of Payrolls. There appears to be a strong correlation here. If ED yields move more than 2bps net on the Thursday before payrolls then it is highly likely that the market will continue to move this way after the figure. This rule has only failed twice since 01-Aug-03 and would suggest further declines in yields post figure today.
I will not personally be staking anything on this theory, actually, if anything, I feel like the bonds are overbought and due for some downside.
Cannot deny that it is a very interesting observation.
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