Payroll Turd Polishing

This is a discussion on Payroll Turd Polishing within the Economic & Fundamental Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; right chaps.. its time again to place your bets.. last month we had 146, market expecting 225 and briefing forecasting ...

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Old Mar 4, 2005, 8:56am   #61
 
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right chaps.. its time again to place your bets..

last month we had 146, market expecting 225 and briefing forecasting a tad under at 210..

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html


what number are you going for?? 180 will do me.

fc
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Old Mar 4, 2005, 9:03am   #62
 
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It appears that the 'experts' are prediciting a range of 145 to 310, so I expect someone out there will get it right.

My money is on 251, and a big push for the dollar. Cable just staying above support at the moment, (19050-60). We could see 18900 if the numbers are big enough.
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Old Mar 4, 2005, 9:08am   #63
 
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145-310?? thats a pretty big spread? on a number usually around 220 odd, thats 50% either side.

wonder what would happen if we got outside that range??

been ages since a 300 point DOW day
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Old Mar 4, 2005, 9:10am   #64
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FetteredChinos
145-310?? thats a pretty big spread? on a number usually around 220 odd, thats 50% either side.

wonder what would happen if we got outside that range??

been ages since a 300 point DOW day
Exactly. In other words, no one's really got a clue.
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Old Mar 4, 2005, 9:12am   #65
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Feb in past has produced upside surprises. Only thing that could count against a big number is the seemingly endless appetite from some volume players in the short end rates this week - Often these guys get it right.
I will go with 240 however as I think Cheney will be happy with something like that and not a lot comes out these days that the boyz in the Bush camp didn't put their stamp of approval on first.
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Old Mar 4, 2005, 11:52am   #66
 
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Is it really a month ago that we last had all this excitement and Frugi Boogie was awarded the best payrolls guess virtual paper hat with all the pomp and ceremony that cyberspace could afford…….?……(not much…. )

The market is expecting a blowout number today, and will very likely be disappointed, but we’re at the sharp end of a big triangle so the wind-up factor is likely to propel even a half decent number into the stratosphere, if only because it won’t stoke interest rates too much…..

I’ll err on the bullish side with 275,000 and the Dow to close at 10964 as per my Dow Comp entry…..

Don’t forget that the Dow hasn’t really gone anywhere to the upside for over a year, and is now less than 100 points above the ’04 highs – I think that the bulls are looking for an excuse……..
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Old Mar 4, 2005, 12:37pm   #67
 
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pretty much everything i can see is sitting on either support or resistance.


you could say this month's numbers mark a turning point....
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Old Mar 4, 2005, 12:41pm   #68
 
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Quote:
you could say this month's numbers mark a turning point....
yes - It's either going to be jump on a long or jump on a short......

not much chance of sideways.........
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Old Mar 4, 2005, 12:46pm   #69
 
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even a number in-line might cause a tank? god only knows...

might be time to enter a long on one account, a short on another before the numbers.

payroll days usually reverse around lunchtime our time. might be able to bag a profit on both

fc
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Old Mar 4, 2005, 12:51pm   #70
 
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i wonder if it will be leaked early again, like it was a few months back...
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Old Mar 4, 2005, 12:52pm   #71
 
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Old Mar 4, 2005, 12:57pm   #72
 
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where is Grandmaster Frugs when you need him?
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Old Mar 4, 2005, 1:20pm   #73
 
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hmm, GBP/USD subtly moving off support...


hmmm....
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Old Mar 4, 2005, 1:30pm   #74
 
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so what did we get??
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Old Mar 4, 2005, 1:33pm   #75
 
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right selling this 10870..

reversal coming up methinks..

fc
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