Payroll Turd Polishing

This is a discussion on Payroll Turd Polishing within the Economic & Fundamental Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; bracke, I just played the volatility after in the spreads, left the outrights alone. Generally however you have to be ...

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Old Apr 4, 2004, 9:27am   #11
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bracke, I just played the volatility after in the spreads, left the outrights alone. Generally however you have to be careful playing either the pre-move or the move directly after the release unless you are very clear of its bullish or bearish impact because often the market will make a countermove first to take out stops.
I view bond data via liffe connection
Sahil, Eurex had announced in the morning that they were having problems and that they didn't know what would happen if market got busy. This is why people got locked out. This happened with a couple of the gateways on Liffe too...Bad if you got caught.
I reckon that it is only good to have exit orders or orders stacked deep in the depth before a big figure like that.
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Old Apr 4, 2004, 12:58pm   #12
 
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FWIW a couple of years ago (i'm out of the industry now), some analyst/sales guy came screaming into the front office shouting 'the number's xxx'. All the traders acted in accordance with what you'd expect - they made a loada money.

This was OTC rate derivatives though - seemed they were careful not to trade all through the futures hedge as not to arouse exchange suspicions........
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Old Apr 4, 2004, 2:11pm   #13
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A friend at UBS used to be able to tell me figures like the IFO ten minutes before the official announcement, he said it was usual practice to squawk it to certain desks before the announcement. He also claimed that a lot of the big US banks get the same thing on the US figs.
I have not heard this from anybody else but his German figures were always spot on and always 5-10mins before Reuters.
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Old Apr 4, 2004, 4:26pm   #14
 
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People have inside information all the time, it wouldnt suprise me
to know that the big banks and others know these figures
before the official release, however they are not supposed
to act on it until it goes public.

Some greedy trader with itchy fingers probably just jumped the
gun..
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Old Apr 4, 2004, 4:51pm   #15
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But how and where do the governments get their data from in order to calculate the figures??

I don't know for sure, but I'd be surprised if the IB's weren't involved somewhere
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Old Apr 4, 2004, 4:52pm   #16
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there was some big itchy fingers for sure - massive palms actually! I did not know about the Eurex announcement. Next time I will just put in orders at least 200 ticks on either side of the market. Would have been sorted in this occasion for sure had I done.

Any of u guys trade with the big boys?
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Old Apr 6, 2004, 8:40am   #17
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293,000 of the 310,000 jobs may be only Temp jobs, is this helpful ?
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Old Apr 6, 2004, 11:01am   #18
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Probably government "Temp" employees
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Old Apr 6, 2004, 1:25pm   #19
 
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zigglewigler started this thread Greenspan Almighty! I am sick to frigging death with this economic spin. Economics and politics live in the same toilet. The Land of the Free to Lie hits its zenith.

US employment March 2004, the facts!

Nonfarm payroll up 308k, yet unemployment rate stays at 5.7%!

8.4 million without jobs, unchanged.

In March, the number of people who worked part time for economic reasons increased to 4.7 million. Either hours were cut or they couldn't find full-time jobs.

But get this, the real way to buff up a stinking turd. 1.6 million were 'marginally attached to the labour force', these people want jobs, had looked in the last year, BUT WERE NOT COUNTED AS UNEMPLOYED BECAUSE THEY HAD NOT LOOKED FOR WORK IN THE 4 WEEKS PRIOR TO THE JOB SURVEY.

514,000 'discouraged' workers, a subset of the 'marginal', didn't even bother to look for work as they believed there was no work out there for them. Currently forming an orderly queue at the end of the pier!

The 308k increase was in construction(a bubble pumped to explode), retail trade(yanks spending what they don't have, also waiting to explode), health care and social assistance(tax payers money funding employment the way the Soviets used to).

Manufacturing employment remained unchanged(real jobs that might help US actually make some money).

11,000 new jobs in the re-mortgaging business(hear the rumblings of a not-too-distant bang).

Oh, and the gov't adds another 31,000 pen pushers.

So all in all, a fantastic performance by America, now the idiots go marching off to the markets with this good news in their hands.

What could they do next for the Bush campaign? Here's a ludicrous idea, drop from the Dow some turkeys that are holding the index back and substitute them with some fly-by-night bull ****e businesses that are doing 'the right thing'.

What?... They are?!
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Old Apr 6, 2004, 1:49pm   #20
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Ziggy,
but apart from that was it basically good news ...LOL
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