Payroll Turd Polishing

This is a discussion on Payroll Turd Polishing within the Economic & Fundamental Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; I trade the german bonds, and the payroll leak was not funny. A lot of ppl got seriously hurt. Bobl ...

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Old Apr 3, 2004, 7:22pm   #8
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I trade the german bonds, and the payroll leak was not funny. A lot of ppl got seriously hurt. Bobl was also locked out for about 5 mins after that fig came out. I feel sorry for a lot of ppl!

I was lucky to have pulled my bids @ 2.25pm, instead of my usual 2.29pm. Would have been dead otherwise!

Think all payrolls up to election day are going to be volatile and revised. Bush gang need to show pick up with out rate rises. Think they will pull the stops out come September - massive payrolls of 300k+ thru Novemember
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Old Apr 3, 2004, 7:44pm   #9
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What else do you expect if you insist on trading around big releases?

Face it - most markets are manipulated.

You've got to know when to sit on your hands. Don't let the beggars grind you down.
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Old Apr 3, 2004, 8:18pm   #10
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I've been trading for a couple of years, and was used to dodgy leaks on german data and uni. of michigan stuff, so adjusted trading accordingly - but never official US data. Guess all the bastads are doing it now.
They need to sort it out. Bond markets are so liquid, only volatile enuff around big figures, so need integrity from statisticians.
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Old Apr 4, 2004, 9:27am   #11
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bracke, I just played the volatility after in the spreads, left the outrights alone. Generally however you have to be careful playing either the pre-move or the move directly after the release unless you are very clear of its bullish or bearish impact because often the market will make a countermove first to take out stops.
I view bond data via liffe connection
Sahil, Eurex had announced in the morning that they were having problems and that they didn't know what would happen if market got busy. This is why people got locked out. This happened with a couple of the gateways on Liffe too...Bad if you got caught.
I reckon that it is only good to have exit orders or orders stacked deep in the depth before a big figure like that.
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Old Apr 4, 2004, 12:58pm   #12
 
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FWIW a couple of years ago (i'm out of the industry now), some analyst/sales guy came screaming into the front office shouting 'the number's xxx'. All the traders acted in accordance with what you'd expect - they made a loada money.

This was OTC rate derivatives though - seemed they were careful not to trade all through the futures hedge as not to arouse exchange suspicions........
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Old Apr 4, 2004, 2:11pm   #13
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A friend at UBS used to be able to tell me figures like the IFO ten minutes before the official announcement, he said it was usual practice to squawk it to certain desks before the announcement. He also claimed that a lot of the big US banks get the same thing on the US figs.
I have not heard this from anybody else but his German figures were always spot on and always 5-10mins before Reuters.
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Old Apr 4, 2004, 4:26pm   #14
 
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People have inside information all the time, it wouldnt suprise me
to know that the big banks and others know these figures
before the official release, however they are not supposed
to act on it until it goes public.

Some greedy trader with itchy fingers probably just jumped the
gun..
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