Could the Weimar Hyperinflation Happen Again in America?

This is a discussion on Could the Weimar Hyperinflation Happen Again in America? within the Economic & Fundamental Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; I have read several times in this thread that nobody is buying US Bonds. (Specifically China) THis is not true ...

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Old Sep 21, 2009, 4:39am   #273
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I have read several times in this thread that nobody is buying US Bonds. (Specifically China) THis is not true at all. In fact, they are buying them at a record pace.

Besides, it's all a shell game anyway.
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Old Sep 21, 2009, 7:02am   #274
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clockwork71 View Post
I have read several times in this thread that nobody is buying US Bonds. (Specifically China) THis is not true at all. In fact, they are buying them at a record pace.

Besides, it's all a shell game anyway.

China still buying record amounts of U.S. bonds: report | U.S. | Reuters
The newspaper said China had little choice but to keep pouring the bulk of its growing reserves into U.S. Treasuries, which remains the only market big enough and liquid enough to support its huge purchases.

This I think is more of a confidence trick and a way to China help it self. How long will or can it continue?


Here is another story to view the other side...
US bonds sale faces market resistance - Telegraph

How about this one... Fed buying bonds!!! - What does this mean?

Check the date and see how it matches the first link with China buying debt...
US Fed buying bonds not real source of risk

Last edited by Atilla; Sep 21, 2009 at 7:09am.
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Old Sep 21, 2009, 12:04pm   #275
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Old Sep 22, 2009, 12:21am   #276
 
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montmorencyt2w started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Atilla View Post
China still buying record amounts of U.S. bonds: report | U.S. | Reuters
The newspaper said China had little choice but to keep pouring the bulk of its growing reserves into U.S. Treasuries, which remains the only market big enough and liquid enough to support its huge purchases.

This I think is more of a confidence trick and a way to China help it self. How long will or can it continue?


Here is another story to view the other side...
US bonds sale faces market resistance - Telegraph

How about this one... Fed buying bonds!!! - What does this mean?

Check the date and see how it matches the first link with China buying debt...
US Fed buying bonds not real source of risk
From the Telegraph article:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Telegraph
There isn't enough capital in the world to buy the new sovereign issuance required to finance the giant fiscal deficits that countries are so intent on running. There is simply not enough money out there," he said. "If the US loses control of long rates, they will not be able to arrest asset price declines. If they print too much money, they will debase the dollar and cause stagflation.
From the Asianews Network article
Quote:
Originally Posted by Asianews Network
What should worry us the most is that the Fed might be unable to curb inflation. How to recycle the huge amount of money injected into the market when the economy recovers is a thorny issue. The worst-case scenario is that hyperinflation could hit well before the economy has fully recovered.
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Last edited by montmorencyt2w; Sep 22, 2009 at 12:27am.
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Old Sep 23, 2009, 9:21am   #277
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Interesting article on US employment, or lack of:

BLS Jobs Numbers Contradict BLS Jobs Numbers -- Seeking Alpha
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Old Sep 23, 2009, 11:58am   #278
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The US has printed trillions of dollars but it isn't going into real GDP stimulating moves. It's gone straight to bank balance sheets, who rather than lending to business in order to revive the economy, are hoarding the money to buy the banks which fail and are trying to rid their balance sheet of 'toxic' debt.
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Banks are not worth their share values


This is the gamble the governments have taken. This is the reason we're in the sh1t.
Aren't they worth their share value?

The banks market their structured assets to model at a time when they were desirable in the market (inter bank anyway) and then leveraged based on the overvalued assets until they were geared to the hilt... Thy were making so many guineas from the complex derivs and these other bloody synthetic credit products that everybody inc shareholders were bathing and they just wanted more and more money until their deposit/loan ratios were (as the auditors should have picked up :-S) indicating a risk of continuing as a going concern. These problems were ignored. Then bang... everything blows up and they got rumbled factoring in sketchy debts into their structured assets and they all have to be written down. Net affect? Less assets, higher gearing etc but they are so ingrained in our way of life it's impossible for them not to produce a massive income. So QE sorts the balance sheet to restore confidence in the sector which can be measured by share price as an indicator of demand (or has share price risen due to changes in equity? the arabs pulled out of barclays at a loss remember).

All depends on how you look things. I can't see them ever falling if everyone continues to ignore the elephant in the room. Not until it's too late anyway.
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Old Sep 25, 2009, 8:53am   #279
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Originally Posted by Technically Fundamental View Post
The banks market their structured assets to model at a time when they were desirable in the market (inter bank anyway) and then leveraged based on the overvalued assets until they were geared to the hilt... Thy were making so many guineas from the complex derivs and these other bloody synthetic credit products that everybody inc shareholders were bathing and they just wanted more and more money until their deposit/loan ratios were (as the auditors should have picked up :-S) indicating a risk of continuing as a going concern. These problems were ignored. Then bang... everything blows up and they got rumbled factoring in sketchy debts into their structured assets and they all have to be written down.

All depends on how you look things. I can't see them ever falling if everyone continues to ignore the elephant in the room. Not until it's too late anyway.
Good post. And what did central banks do with the 'toxic assets'? They basically created a hedge fund with printed money which is in our, but also our childrens names. China et al are involved in this printing ponzi scheme to add confidence to the market in the HOPE (I hope) that they will stimulate the economy. It's a one way bet on recovery.

It pains me to watch all the intellectuals who get carried away and jump on the gravy train. Don't judge Bernanke and co now; judge them in a year, or two years or longer. They are prolonging the crisis. I could go into a job tomorrow in the Fed or the Boe or the ECB and just print money.

The fact still remains that never before in history has this type of operation worked. Japan tried the same thing in the 90s but the difference there was that they had a high level of savings and the government had large reserves. It took them 15 years to show any growth or stability.

We're doing this with monopoly money. They should just pull Madoff out of his cell to act as an advisor.
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Thanks! The following members like this post: counter_violent , Atilla , Black Swan
Old Sep 25, 2009, 10:13am   #280
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Originally Posted by SAINT View Post
The fact still remains that never before in history has this type of operation worked. Japan tried the same thing in the 90s but the difference there was that they had a high level of savings and the government had large reserves. It took them 15 years to show any growth or stability.

We're doing this with monopoly money. They should just pull Madoff out of his cell to act as an advisor.
Ah but the difference is that this is a coordinated global effort. I think it's an equity tightrope walk with a very short balancing tool. Also, could the fact that there is a sigle European currency as opposed to a million not have an impact?
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