Could the Weimar Hyperinflation Happen Again in America?

This is a discussion on Could the Weimar Hyperinflation Happen Again in America? within the Economic & Fundamental Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Non OECD oil consumption 1993; 19 mbd, 2008; 33 mbd. China has just completed a 60,000 km national highway system: ...

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Old Sep 18, 2009, 12:52pm   #239
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Non OECD oil consumption 1993; 19 mbd, 2008; 33 mbd.

China has just completed a 60,000 km national highway system:
Expressways of China - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

What happens to a super giant oil field after production has peaked:
Cantarell Field - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The giant Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia probably went past peak production in 2005. Take a look at the Cantarell graph for details of what happens after peak production.
Ghawar Field - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Official IEA figures put extraction decline in existing oil fields at 6.7%. It is reasonably well accepted that oil extraction capacity in non OPEC nations peaked around 2004. OPEC country reserves and spare capacity are unknown.
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Old Sep 19, 2009, 5:48am   #240
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On current fundamentals I did a post in 'news/current affairs' called 'ghost ships', you will see that thousands of ships are sitting idle all over the world (not burning fuel). On some of those ships is Chinese exports. On others there is currently 150million barrels of oil approx (two years supply). Governments have also added to stockpiles.

The oil price is moving against the dollar falls and is using the stock market as an indicator of continued demand. Traders are literally hoping for recovery.

Alongside the supply offshore, we are in a deflationary environment. If this gathers pace, the oil price will then match fundamentals and drop to 30 again.

The economy should take the heat out of demand for a few years and maybe green cars and sustainable energy will come in when it recovers. With all this cap and trade, there will surely be a move to reduce car emissions.

Last edited by SAINT; Sep 19, 2009 at 6:23am.
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Old Sep 19, 2009, 9:49am   #241
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On current fundamentals I did a post in 'news/current affairs' called 'ghost ships', you will see that thousands of ships are sitting idle all over the world (not burning fuel). On some of those ships is Chinese exports. On others there is currently 150million barrels of oil approx (two years supply). Governments have also added to stockpiles.

The oil price is moving against the dollar falls and is using the stock market as an indicator of continued demand. Traders are literally hoping for recovery.

Alongside the supply offshore, we are in a deflationary environment. If this gathers pace, the oil price will then match fundamentals and drop to 30 again.

The economy should take the heat out of demand for a few years and maybe green cars and sustainable energy will come in when it recovers. With all this cap and trade, there will surely be a move to reduce car emissions.
Agree about the oil price, I am short at this price and will add to it. Do you think all that US money printing will have any side effects? US markets are struggling IMO at this level. The Goldman arm of govt are propping up the market via the zombie banks. The US need to accept that the credit system is broken, admit it and get on with sorting it out instead of pretending all is OK. If they dont and there is no sign of them doing so then I think we will see new lows on the S&P early next year.
Lower oil prices will mean a recovery in world trade and when the world finally realizes that there is not enough oil to go round it will be too late.
The green revolution is the next bubble. Like the tech bubble we will see companies without profits and track records valued at silly amounts, then when the morons have been fleeced it will be time to move on.
Cap and trade is about tax. Nothing more, nothing less.
There is no alternative to oil. Modern food production is about turning oil into food. A new car takes approximately 25 barrels of oil to manufacture.
150 million barrels of oil may sound like a lot but it is not two years supply, it is TWO DAYS supply. The world uses around 30 billion barrels of oil each year. The US uses 20 million barrels each day.
Yes there is a lot of oil left in the world. Alberta tar sands contain 1 trillion barrels of oil. 175 billion barrels are recoverable. The rest would take more energy put into recovering them than it would be possible to get out. In other words it would take more than 1 barrel of oil to get 1 barrel extracted. Apart from the use of vast amounts of natural gas and fresh water, tar sand mining creates massive pollution problems and the clean up cost is enormous, but it does provide the US with 3 million barrels of oil each day.
Would the world be going to these lengths if there were vast amounts of easily recoverable oil left?
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Old Sep 19, 2009, 11:18am   #242
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Old Sep 19, 2009, 1:51pm   #243
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I saw this last year...
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Old Sep 19, 2009, 2:30pm   #244
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When I see this sort of thing I think govt subsidy.
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Old Sep 19, 2009, 2:48pm   #245
 
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Originally Posted by Technically Fundamental View Post
I saw this last year...

It looks technically very interesting, but it seems a bit of an energy intensive process, so I wonder how feasible this really is, long-term.
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