Could the Weimar Hyperinflation Happen Again in America?

poborsky · Aug 12, 2009, 8:15am

Cheap oil is a thing of the past. This is one of the reasons that we are not going to see deflation for more than a short period. Supply can no longer exceed demand when it attempts to rise. Consequences do not bear thinking about.

N Rothschild · Aug 14, 2009, 6:07pm

CPI unchanged today, this inflation is WILD

N Rothschild · Aug 14, 2009, 9:11pm

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...Such-Good-News

this guy is spot on IMO

poborsky · Aug 15, 2009, 2:55am

The FED announcement on bond purchases ending and the "deflation" figures are designed to bring interest rates down. Risk aversion. This means the US govt see serious problems ahead. They are doing anything they can to get the public spending again, cash for clunkers, help with mortgages etc, but GDP is still negative. Banks are still insolvent despite trillions of dollars thrown at them. Property prices are still collapsing and with option arm resets taking effect they are going to carry on down. Commercial real estate is a disaster now happening. Business lenders are going bankrupt. Bailout and stimuli plans have failed. All markets have been propped up with printed and borrowed money. Its a big ponzi scheme about to unravel.

SAINT · Aug 16, 2009, 5:01pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by poborsky

Cheap oil is a thing of the past. This is one of the reasons that we are not going to see deflation for more than a short period. Supply can no longer exceed demand when it attempts to rise. Consequences do not bear thinking about.

The peak oil situation doesn't matter yet. We saw a drop in demand in the last year so the supply/demand situation is not critical. Oil markets are pricing in future demand, due to a rise in stock markets, rather than a return to demand.

The inflation v deflation argument is to do with timing- the markets are IN a deflationary situation now so the question is how long. Inflation is an afterthought for maybe a year or two down the line.

Excess capacity is being removed from the system and its too early to know when this will end.

poborsky · Aug 17, 2009, 2:55am

Quote:

Originally Posted by SAINT

The peak oil situation doesn't matter yet. We saw a drop in demand in the last year so the supply/demand situation is not critical. Oil markets are pricing in future demand, due to a rise in stock markets, rather than a return to demand.

The inflation v deflation argument is to do with timing- the markets are IN a deflationary situation now so the question is how long. Inflation is an afterthought for maybe a year or two down the line.

Excess capacity is being removed from the system and its too early to know when this will end.

As I have posted before, I believe that the deflationary cycle that we are seeing in the US is a symptom of what is going to happen. Year on year budget and trade deficits. We saw a spike in oil prices which suggests that when push comes to shove the oil producing nations are struggling to meet demand. Most of the easy to remove oil has been used up, thats why Albert tar sands are being mined and the Brazilians are drilling in 7000 meter ocean depths. The developing Asian economies are using more oil than ever before and demand will carry on increasing in these countries. Removing capacity from the system is another cause of inflation. Taking away supply while flooding an economy with cheap money will add to inflationary pressure down the line.

N Rothschild · Aug 17, 2009, 12:32pm

http://cdn11.castfire.com/video/119/...OT-Return.html

N Rothschild · Aug 17, 2009, 12:33pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by poborsky

As I have posted before, I believe that the deflationary cycle that we are seeing in the US is a symptom of what is going to happen. Year on year budget and trade deficits. We saw a spike in oil prices which suggests that when push comes to shove the oil producing nations are struggling to meet demand. Most of the easy to remove oil has been used up, thats why Albert tar sands are being mined and the Brazilians are drilling in 7000 meter ocean depths. The developing Asian economies are using more oil than ever before and demand will carry on increasing in these countries. Removing capacity from the system is another cause of inflation. Taking away supply while flooding an economy with cheap money will add to inflationary pressure down the line.

doubt we will see 100$ oil again for a long time..

Aug 12, 2009, 8:15am	#185
poborsky Veteran Member Member Since Oct 2008 539 Posts	Re: Could the Weimar Hyperinflation Happen Again in America? Cheap oil is a thing of the past. This is one of the reasons that we are not going to see deflation for more than a short period. Supply can no longer exceed demand when it attempts to rise. Consequences do not bear thinking about. __________________ I think myself that we have more machinery of government than is necessary, too many parasites living on the labor of the industrious.

Aug 14, 2009, 6:07pm	#186
N Rothschild Legendary Member Member Since Oct 2008 5,317 Posts	Re: Could the Weimar Hyperinflation Happen Again in America? CPI unchanged today, this inflation is WILD __________________ "Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws." Mayer Amschel Rothschild Bullsh!t, Bearsh!t all smells the same to me! "It is not cheap to develop automated systems , mine already cost over $1m. " oildaytrader

Aug 14, 2009, 9:11pm	#187
N Rothschild Legendary Member Member Since Oct 2008 5,317 Posts	Re: Could the Weimar Hyperinflation Happen Again in America? http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...Such-Good-News this guy is spot on IMO __________________ "Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws." Mayer Amschel Rothschild Bullsh!t, Bearsh!t all smells the same to me! "It is not cheap to develop automated systems , mine already cost over $1m. " oildaytrader

Aug 15, 2009, 2:55am	#188
poborsky Veteran Member Member Since Oct 2008 539 Posts	Re: Could the Weimar Hyperinflation Happen Again in America? The FED announcement on bond purchases ending and the "deflation" figures are designed to bring interest rates down. Risk aversion. This means the US govt see serious problems ahead. They are doing anything they can to get the public spending again, cash for clunkers, help with mortgages etc, but GDP is still negative. Banks are still insolvent despite trillions of dollars thrown at them. Property prices are still collapsing and with option arm resets taking effect they are going to carry on down. Commercial real estate is a disaster now happening. Business lenders are going bankrupt. Bailout and stimuli plans have failed. All markets have been propped up with printed and borrowed money. Its a big ponzi scheme about to unravel. __________________ I think myself that we have more machinery of government than is necessary, too many parasites living on the labor of the industrious.

Aug 17, 2009, 12:32pm	#191
N Rothschild Legendary Member Member Since Oct 2008 5,317 Posts	Re: Could the Weimar Hyperinflation Happen Again in America? http://cdn11.castfire.com/video/119/...OT-Return.html __________________ "Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws." Mayer Amschel Rothschild Bullsh!t, Bearsh!t all smells the same to me! "It is not cheap to develop automated systems , mine already cost over $1m. " oildaytrader

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