Day Trading & Forex Forum

Erikthered

It feels like oil is in a free fall, after prices dropped to 126 dollars per barrel in late New York trading. Most traders are selling the black gold, after a slow down in demand was seen from the US consumer over Memorial weekend. It seems like the 4+ dollars per gallon has consumers saying no more. We are expecting oil to fall below 125 by the end of Friday.

The FTSE is currently indicating a slightly higher open, mostly on the strength of the Japanese markets. We are expecting a low volume trading day, as most of the important economic announcements were already released this week. The only thing of note is at 12.30 GMT when US releases its Personal Consumption numbers. There is risk that they will come in lighter then expected, this will result in a sell off on the US equity side.

arabianights

$125.62 now...

__________________
Only morons take my advice!

Chatroom for STIR traders - open during UK market hours (7am-6pm). Anyone welcome, especially locals, IB/HF traders, brokers (particularly if you have lots of flow ), those with an interest in this field...

Directional

$4 a gallon?? you guys dont know how good you've got it. Try paying $11 a gallon, like we do here in the UK already.

__________________
"I guess I should warn you: If I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I said." - Alan Greenspan

arabianights

Just wait till cable hits $1.75 :'(

__________________
Only morons take my advice!

Chatroom for STIR traders - open during UK market hours (7am-6pm). Anyone welcome, especially locals, IB/HF traders, brokers (particularly if you have lots of flow ), those with an interest in this field...

GammaJammer

These short term moves have been less to do with consumers (i.e. demand side of curve) than they have supply (i.e., erm.....supply side). Comments from Opec people, technical stuff to do with japanese refineries, and then the oil inventories data, which saw crude spike hugely on the headline number, only to fall back when the market digested the fact that that weekly number wasn't really an outlier, there were just logistical factors weighing on it. In this case the backlog of tankers queueing up in the gulf coast waiting to unload.

Can you tell I've had clients asking me this over the last couple of days on the trading desk?

Hope the info helps. Appreciate it's not in real time but maybe will at least add a little understanding. I'm sure if you really want to keep abreast of oil there's stuff out there on the web. I just shout out to the oil traders at my firm however so I've never really looked at it on the web.

GJ

__________________
"That which doesn't kill me makes me stronger"

MrGecko

Platts

Pretty good info for free; excellent info (and data) for an arm and a leg - I think you can get it as an option on some newswires.

Directional

exactly. you could say British consumers had had enough of paying $6 a gallon at the pump five years ago... the fact is, if you need to drive somewhere, you have to buy fuel and you'll pay whatever the price is at the pump. You dont have a choice, unless you plan to get your cycle out, which for most journey's isnt really an option.

__________________
"I guess I should warn you: If I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I said." - Alan Greenspan

gooseman

i still think we're heading north from here-this is just a short term respite. there are problems from the supply side, the spare capacity and from the fact that we have real refining capacity problems. crack spreads are pretty hot. perhaps with the summer coming we may continue to see short-term weakness but I am still fairly bullish.

for info i priced a $250 call for Novy last week.