How to Profit from US Presidential elections

This is a discussion on How to Profit from US Presidential elections within the Economic & Fundamental Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; What do you think may be the best way to profit from the US elections? Will you consider it a ...

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Old Nov 1, 2016, 1:29pm   #1
 
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How to Profit from US Presidential elections

What do you think may be the best way to profit from the US elections?
Will you consider it a good idea to buy option calls on VIX (SnP500 volatility) or a straddle on SPX option (SnP500) itself ? To be clear, I am not asking here to weigh chances pro or against any of the candidates. What would you do to make money whoever the winner will be?
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Old Nov 1, 2016, 2:57pm   #2
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As the US stock markets have climbed so strongly under the Democratic presidency, there has to be a good probability of that trend resuming if Hillary Clinton is elected. Obama was elected in late 2008, re-elected in late 2012. How much and how soon though? There will still remain doubts over her legitimacy in office after the election.

If Trump is elected, this will be a shock result, which suggests an energetic immediate reaction. Although a Republican and therefore considered more friendly to business, which is his background anyway, he's also a non-politician and his presidency will be on a personality cult platform: he is a loose cannon as an individual. Maybe this suggests the market will fluctuate significantly but basically go sideways.
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Old Nov 1, 2016, 3:01pm   #3
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PS: I put a bunch of money with the bookies on Hillary to win months ago. The book's still open, at 1.27 last time I looked, Trump 3.50.
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Old Nov 2, 2016, 11:55am   #4
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tomorton View Post
PS: I put a bunch of money with the bookies on Hillary to win months ago. The book's still open, at 1.27 last time I looked, Trump 3.50.
I wish you best with your bet, but remember the odds on Brexit. It was 70/30 for "in". The outcome is known now. In my view, going with bookies is a shaky way to increase one's bank account as we cannot predict sentiments of the voters.
In the Brexit case, those who shorted GBP, were the winners as the chances that it would soar as a result of the "in" vote, were slim, while the chances that it would plunge after "out" vote were palpable.
In my view, it is best to look which instrument will experience greatest volatility as a result of the vote.
For example, gold may stay firm in case Hillary wins, and soar in case Trump wins. Shall we invest in gold maybe?
Any other ideas?
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Old Nov 13, 2016, 6:06am   #5
 
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Originally Posted by tomorton View Post
PS: I put a bunch of money with the bookies on Hillary to win months ago. The book's still open, at 1.27 last time I looked, Trump 3.50.
Hi buddy, have you lost your bet?
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