The Housing Market Is Hanging On By A Thread Signals High End Real Estate

This is a discussion on The Housing Market Is Hanging On By A Thread Signals High End Real Estate within the Economic & Fundamental Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by new_trader You wrote: "I have seen dozens of these over the years and none of them have ...

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Old Aug 16, 2016, 3:36pm   #46
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Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
You wrote: "I have seen dozens of these over the years and none of them have ever come to light."

Really, none, ever? My experience tells me that you and others in this thread haven't got the foggiest idea of what you are talking about.
I was referring to dozens of bust forecasts that has never seen the light of day. The only one here that hasn't the foggiest is you! Why you might wonder. Well showing a YouTube video forecasting a bust alongside an argument of buying houses historically has given you magical insight into future movements. Whatever you're smoking please pm me with your dealer as I have a party next month and would like to be in la la land for the evening.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 5:45pm   #47
 
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I was referring to dozens of bust forecasts that has never seen the light of day. The only one here that hasn't the foggiest is you! Why you might wonder. Well showing a YouTube video forecasting a bust alongside an argument of buying houses historically has given you magical insight into future movements. Whatever you're smoking please pm me with your dealer as I have a party next month and would like to be in la la land for the evening.
Actually, past experience alone has given me a 'magical' insight into future movements. I thought I made this clear. Besides, I'm not the one forecasting "the days of boom and bust doesn't apply globally anymore"...I don't recall which idiot said that, but that is what I would call a drug induced forecast.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 6:52pm   #48
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Well when did the UK last have a bust? It was about 26 years ago and the UK property market even survived the 2007 subprime disaster. With a growing population and limited space, exactly how is this next bust going to happen? Please refrain from YouTube videos or this bull**** that your experience gives you special insight (it's about as laughable as a car salesman predicting the next emissions scandal).
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 7:05pm   #49
 
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Sound advice

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Well when did the UK last have a bust? It was about 26 years ago and the UK property market even survived the 2007 subprime disaster. With a growing population and limited space, exactly how is this next bust going to happen? Please refrain from YouTube videos or this bull**** that your experience gives you special insight (it's about as laughable as a car salesman predicting the next emissions scandal).
Ummm, it was Gordon Brown who said there is no more boom and bust and a few years later it was Gordon Brown who helped fuel the UK property bubble and subsequent bust in 2007, and it was Gordon Brown who pushed interest rates down to almost 0% (where they have remained since) and bailed out a few banks at great cost to taxpayers in order to "save" the UK property market...and this is your idea of "surviving"? Do you know anyone who was in negative equity during this period to the tune of 10's of thousands of pounds? I do.

I'm not going to argue with you anymore, I'm just going to give you sound advice: Don't invest in anything...anything(!), under the misguided belief that the days of boom and bust are over.

You're welcome.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 8:36pm   #50
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Let's be clear on this "saving" of the UK property market in the UK. Banks like Northern Rock needed to pay off debt by securitising mortgages to markets internationally. Because those markets lacked demand (thanks to USA) , they couldn't raise capital to fund their own debt. This was a capital flow issue and not linked to bad loans or a UK bubble. So please can you get the facts right instead of sugar coating it.

The 2007 dip (not crash) was due to people holding back on purchasing houses due to the economic environment, as well as the sharp decline in available mortgage funds from lenders. This was NOT LINKED TO A UK BUBBLE. Lenders tightened lending rules and removed a lot of products to borrowers. To put this dip in perspective, the average price of a house dropped from 200k to 180k. Not exactly a train smash is it! Subsequent to this prices started rising again and has continued the trend. Apart from the luxury market, houses are being snapped up as fast as they are put up. My neighbours put theirs up for sale and was sold on the day. Same thing to their neighbours and I see it every day as I am looking to sell mine. Most people buy houses to live and being in negative equity doesn't last for long after these dips. The UK has a major house shortage and this issue isn't going away so like it or not, the demand will always outstrip supply.

Your more than welcome.

Last edited by forker; Aug 16, 2016 at 8:50pm.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 8:54pm   #51
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People like you have been saying for years "house crash" and people like you will still be saying it in years to come. The only way the UK will ever see a genuine crash is for interest rates to go beyond 7% with job market issues. Until that day comes you can keep toking on that sock you're smoking.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 10:05pm   #52
 
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Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
Ummm, it was Gordon Brown who said there is no more boom and bust and a few years later it was Gordon Brown who helped fuel the UK property bubble and subsequent bust in 2007, and it was Gordon Brown who pushed interest rates down to almost 0% (where they have remained since) and bailed out a few banks at great cost to taxpayers in order to "save" the UK property market...and this is your idea of "surviving"? Do you know anyone who was in negative equity during this period to the tune of 10's of thousands of pounds? I do.

I'm not going to argue with you anymore, I'm just going to give you sound advice: Don't invest in anything...anything(!), under the misguided belief that the days of boom and bust are over.

You're welcome.

I always thought you argue with voices in your head and you attribute words that were not spoken to Forker in this case.

He is right as whilst some people were predicing 20-30-50% declines in property prices nothing like that at all happened. I doubt prices fell even 10% and it was more a case of unrealistic prices coming down and prices stagnating than falling or collapsing.

I do recall being mocked in 2009 when green shoots of recovery were announced and it was when good money was made buying at the bottom of the market when money was tight and mortgages were hard to come by. Those who had 40% deposits to put down ofcourse had no problems.

Also, recall people like you telling long stories how after maintenance and inflation how property asset prices actually were losing money blah blah blah. You are pushing the same old tosh without any comprehension of supply and demand for housing and even have your outbursts stating building new houses will do nothing to the price of houses.

You are remarkably obnoxious in your cavalier attitude dismissing the points put forward whilst really arguing with fictitious characters and voices inside your head. Perhaps I'm wrong but it really does seem like that to me.

Gordon Brown did some things bad and some things better than others imo. Don't think he was great but damn site better than Norman Lamont or Nigel Lawson in terms of damage to the UK economy.

Every Tom Dick and Harry has become a property millionaire out of simply buying and selling in a one way market in the UK in the last 70 years. Doesn't make them experts. Simply people with money in the right place, at the right time, being on the correct side of the market.

What would be interesting is how you played the timings wrt currency fluctuations, capital gains and costs between the three countries? Be interesting to hear how that worked out for you?

I'm surprised you only have one property.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 10:10pm   #53
 
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Originally Posted by forker View Post
Let's be clear on this "saving" of the UK property market in the UK. Banks like Northern Rock needed to pay off debt by securitising mortgages to markets internationally. Because those markets lacked demand (thanks to USA) , they couldn't raise capital to fund their own debt. This was a capital flow issue and not linked to bad loans or a UK bubble. So please can you get the facts right instead of sugar coating it.

The 2007 dip (not crash) was due to people holding back on purchasing houses due to the economic environment, as well as the sharp decline in available mortgage funds from lenders. This was NOT LINKED TO A UK BUBBLE. Lenders tightened lending rules and removed a lot of products to borrowers. To put this dip in perspective, the average price of a house dropped from 200k to 180k. Not exactly a train smash is it! Subsequent to this prices started rising again and has continued the trend. Apart from the luxury market, houses are being snapped up as fast as they are put up. My neighbours put theirs up for sale and was sold on the day. Same thing to their neighbours and I see it every day as I am looking to sell mine. Most people buy houses to live and being in negative equity doesn't last for long after these dips. The UK has a major house shortage and this issue isn't going away so like it or not, the demand will always outstrip supply.

Your more than welcome.
Good post.

I concur with this post strongly and the points put forward is a far more correct assessment of events and picture of the housing market than there being a bubble or a housing crash.

The media reported bubble and housing crash and experts stated upto 50% correction but as we all know non of this took place.
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Old Aug 17, 2016, 1:11am   #54
 
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People never learn

In 2004 when I saw how quickly property prices were rising I was telling people that there is going to be a correction. Just like now, ‘everyone’ was saying I don’t know anything, there is no way it could happen because the UK is an island & the population is growing...yak...yak...yak

In 2005, when property prices continued to rise, I was telling people that there is going to be a correction and it will now be bigger. Just like now, ‘everyone’ was saying I don’t know anything, there is no way it could happen because the UK is an island & the population is growing...yak...yak...yak

In 2006, when property prices continued to rise, I was telling people that there is going to be a crash. Just like now, ‘everyone’ was saying I don’t know anything, there is no way it could happen because the UK is an island & the population is growing...yak...yak...yak

When the 2008 financial crisis hit, I was telling people “I told you so” and rather than say I was right, they all had the audacity to say “You’ve be saying that for years!”…well at least I was saying it! Do people actually expect that I can call a crash a few days before it happens?

It would have been much worse but I never predicted that interest rates would be slashed and the Bank of England would embark on a Q.E program.

So, just for the record: I am not saying that there will be a property crash next week or next year, but mark my words, there will be another U.K property bubble and subsequent crash. What I can’t predict is how the Central Banks and Government will react. Most likely it will be no different to how they reacted to the 2008 crisis i.e. Print money and slash interest rates. It might take another 10 years as these things can take years to play out, but it will happen. If this forum & I are still around I will post my “I told you so” and I guarantee the people who are arguing with me now (if they are still around) will say “You’ve be saying that for years!”.

To say “The days of boom and bust don’t apply anymore” is the epitome of arrogance.
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Old Aug 17, 2016, 3:48am   #55
 
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1.5% away from a bust

Quote:
Originally Posted by forker View Post
Well when did the UK last have a bust? It was about 26 years ago
26 years ago is about right, and you accept that it was a bust, right? Let's look at the data:

Source: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/ho...m-1973-onwards

According to the data:
Peak: Q3 1989, Average price: £62782
Trough: Q1 1993, Average price: £50128
A peak to trough decline of 20.2% and this according to you is a bust, right?

The next bubble:
Peak: Q3 2007, Average price: £184131
Trough: Q1 2009, Average price £149709

A peak to trough decline of 18.7%... a difference of only 1.5%! You're arguing over 1.5%? One is a bust and the other isn't...1.5%?

It took 14 years for the property market to recover from one trough and move to the next peak, so 2023 is when we will revisit this thread, give or take.
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Old Aug 17, 2016, 7:53am   #56
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Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
In 2004 when I saw how quickly property prices were rising I was telling people that there is going to be a correction. Just like now, ‘everyone’ was saying I don’t know anything, there is no way it could happen because the UK is an island & the population is growing...yak...yak...yak

In 2005, when property prices continued to rise, I was telling people that there is going to be a correction and it will now be bigger. Just like now, ‘everyone’ was saying I don’t know anything, there is no way it could happen because the UK is an island & the population is growing...yak...yak...yak

In 2006, when property prices continued to rise, I was telling people that there is going to be a crash. Just like now, ‘everyone’ was saying I don’t know anything, there is no way it could happen because the UK is an island & the population is growing...yak...yak...yak

When the 2008 financial crisis hit, I was telling people “I told you so” and rather than say I was right, they all had the audacity to say “You’ve be saying that for years!”…well at least I was saying it! Do people actually expect that I can call a crash a few days before it happens?

It would have been much worse but I never predicted that interest rates would be slashed and the Bank of England would embark on a Q.E program.

So, just for the record: I am not saying that there will be a property crash next week or next year, but mark my words, there will be another U.K property bubble and subsequent crash. What I can’t predict is how the Central Banks and Government will react. Most likely it will be no different to how they reacted to the 2008 crisis i.e. Print money and slash interest rates. It might take another 10 years as these things can take years to play out, but it will happen. If this forum & I are still around I will post my “I told you so” and I guarantee the people who are arguing with me now (if they are still around) will say “You’ve be saying that for years!”.

To say “The days of boom and bust don’t apply anymore” is the epitome of arrogance.


the market was overbought .............of course it was going to fall at some point .......like it will rain again in spain at some point ............are you serious with your comments above ?..............seriously ?

N
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Old Aug 17, 2016, 7:56am   #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
26 years ago is about right, and you accept that it was a bust, right? Let's look at the data:

Source: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/ho...m-1973-onwards

According to the data:
Peak: Q3 1989, Average price: £62782
Trough: Q1 1993, Average price: £50128
A peak to trough decline of 20.2% and this according to you is a bust, right?

The next bubble:
Peak: Q3 2007, Average price: £184131
Trough: Q1 2009, Average price £149709

A peak to trough decline of 18.7%... a difference of only 1.5%! You're arguing over 1.5%? One is a bust and the other isn't...1.5%?

It took 14 years for the property market to recover from one trough and move to the next peak, so 2023 is when we will revisit this thread, give or take.

assume you will still take credit if its earlier than that ?

I have watched thousands of traders fall by the wayside using such benign and vague rules to try to make money ............I don't recommend it if you want to be professional at anything

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Old Aug 17, 2016, 8:51am   #58
 
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To say “The days of boom and bust don’t apply anymore” is the epitome of arrogance.
You seem to be picking a fight with this statement uttered by Gordon Brown in his budgetary speel.

He was of course a politician on an electioneering campaign to get him self in to the PM seat. Why attribute this to the rest of bloggers on this thread and skew the debate on property? Don't see any bloggers here agreeing with him do you?

The economic growth cycle is still here and always likely to be and different industries perform at different levels. Whether it's bonds, commodities or shares the cycle continues. Property as simply another asset class and building industry is no different.

Last edited by Atilla; Aug 17, 2016 at 9:29am.
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Old Aug 17, 2016, 5:45pm   #59
 
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Half price property

Look at what happened to property prices in Northern Ireland...a loss of over 54% !

Click the image to open in full size.



But the forkwits will tell you the U.K doesn't do property crashes...last time I checked Northern Ireland is a part of the UK...but to tell you the truth under all this Brexit I've lost track myself
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Old Aug 17, 2016, 5:55pm   #60
 
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You seem to be picking a fight with this statement uttered by Gordon Brown in his budgetary speel.

He was of course a politician on an electioneering campaign to get him self in to the PM seat. Why attribute this to the rest of bloggers on this thread and skew the debate on property? Don't see any bloggers here agreeing with him do you?

The economic growth cycle is still here and always likely to be and different industries perform at different levels. Whether it's bonds, commodities or shares the cycle continues. Property as simply another asset class and building industry is no different.
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I think the housing market is only going to get worse in terms of prices. Population growth and people living longer will continue to pressure demand. Added to this is availability of land and how fast builders deliver new supply. In my opinion, which is based on the evidence, the days of boom and bust doesn't apply globally anymore. Sure there will always be the high end market where the greatest fluctuations take place but it won't affect the rest of the market as much. Take London as an example, the high end market has taken a hit but the rest has either increased or unchanged.

Just the forkwit you keep agreeing with

Put me on ignore, please...you are tedious.
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