The Housing Market Is Hanging On By A Thread Signals High End Real Estate

This is a discussion on The Housing Market Is Hanging On By A Thread Signals High End Real Estate within the Economic & Fundamental Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by sminicooper Perhaps in UK if house prices crash it will give an opportunity to some of those ...

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Old Aug 9, 2016, 9:52am   #9
 
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Originally Posted by sminicooper View Post
Perhaps in UK if house prices crash it will give an opportunity to some of those who currently can't afford to buy a house? As far as I can see, there is a selfish proportion of those already on the housing ladder who can only see positivity to ever increasing house prices. A potential revolution indeed – and all of this despite the amazing genius of our bankers!

But I hold little hope – there will always be a shortage of houses(and therefore unaffordability) where people need to live and work e.g. London.

Banks aren't going to lend people money to invest into a market thats falling. Lending will simply dry up or only be avaiable to those with large deposits.

A house price crash helps no one! Building more and affordable homes is whats needed.
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Old Aug 9, 2016, 10:38am   #10
 
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Originally Posted by ffsear View Post
Banks aren't going to lend people money to invest into a market thats falling. Lending will simply dry up or only be avaiable to those with large deposits.

A house price crash helps no one! Building more and affordable homes is whats needed.
Sadly, I think you're right. I suppose an overall crash might be a bit like a stock split – but the relative differences between new price and borrow ability would still be there. Building more and affordable homes is the obvious answer but if it was so easy then why hasn't it already been done? The basic problem is that people can no longer afford to buy houses due to supply and demand and I can't see how that's going to change.

They tackled this problem (supposedly temporarily but many of them lasted 50 years) post WW2 with prefab houses which were fast and cheap to build and by the standards of the day of a very high standard. This is the sort of thinking we need now but I suspect too many people would consider that sort of house-equivalent below their expectations and would rather accept the status quo and carry on moaning. Unless you live in outer Bunduland where there is no work and property is cheap you're going to continue having housing problems if your desire is ownership.
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Old Aug 9, 2016, 12:08pm   #11
 
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Originally Posted by sminicooper View Post
Sadly, I think you're right. I suppose an overall crash might be a bit like a stock split – but the relative differences between new price and borrow ability would still be there. Building more and affordable homes is the obvious answer but if it was so easy then why hasn't it already been done? The basic problem is that people can no longer afford to buy houses due to supply and demand and I can't see how that's going to change.

They tackled this problem (supposedly temporarily but many of them lasted 50 years) post WW2 with prefab houses which were fast and cheap to build and by the standards of the day of a very high standard. This is the sort of thinking we need now but I suspect too many people would consider that sort of house-equivalent below their expectations and would rather accept the status quo and carry on moaning. Unless you live in outer Bunduland where there is no work and property is cheap you're going to continue having housing problems if your desire is ownership.
House price crash aggravates quite a few issues and leads to reallocation of wealth distribution.

Those who have purchased homes with stretched finances usually get repossessed.

Those with tidy lump savings and deposits with cash sitting around idle move in to buy up cheap-er assets and let (usually the magic ROI number is around 6% p/a).

Hence, those with least financial ability, get enslaved to high rents which often account for 40-60% of salaries in some cases.

The key factor for high price of housing is cost of land and UK's permitted developments policy.

Farmers struggle to make ends meet and they are still not allowed to even change 2% of their agricultural land to residential building land without the skies caving in. Too many vested interests. Instead we have people living in densely populated areas instead of spatial more idealistic ones.

You are right about those prefab houses. Large number of Canadian model prefab houses were built near Hainault Forest. 100s of em, very quickly and at low cost.

Last edited by Atilla; Aug 9, 2016 at 1:19pm.
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Old Aug 10, 2016, 4:22pm   #12
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Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
You've completely missed the point...
the point of what .......wondering if prices will go up or down ?

ive just told you what will determine that

so pick a country / area and more specifically a market segment you are focusing on

and apply the 2 criteria i've already given

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Old Aug 10, 2016, 4:28pm   #13
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Originally Posted by ffsear View Post
Banks aren't going to lend people money to invest into a market thats falling. Lending will simply dry up or only be avaiable to those with large deposits.

A house price crash helps no one! Building more and affordable homes is whats needed.
why the Government strayed off of the council build route is beyond me .......they should have just kept building low cost housing and rented it out ......full stop...........by letting the private sector into the equation (and all this shared ownership cr*p) .....they let the capitalists in ......

sure I know why they did it ....(lessor of many evils)....but that's why every damn low cost development lets the dogs in ........because they cant ringfence it effectively

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Old Aug 10, 2016, 4:32pm   #14
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Originally Posted by Atilla View Post
House price crash aggravates quite a few issues and leads to reallocation of wealth distribution.

Those who have purchased homes with stretched finances usually get repossessed.

Those with tidy lump savings and deposits with cash sitting around idle move in to buy up cheap-er assets and let (usually the magic ROI number is around 6% p/a).

Hence, those with least financial ability, get enslaved to high rents which often account for 40-60% of salaries in some cases.

The key factor for high price of housing is cost of land and UK's permitted developments policy.

Farmers struggle to make ends meet and they are still not allowed to even change 2% of their agricultural land to residential building land without the skies caving in. Too many vested interests. Instead we have people living in densely populated areas instead of spatial more idealistic ones.

You are right about those prefab houses. Large number of Canadian model prefab houses were built near Hainault Forest. 100s of em, very quickly and at low cost.
not in the UK A last time around ..........we never cleansed out the system (like the US did) hence our issues now .......most people buying in UK are pretty sure they wont get repo'd.........a silly mindset but one we have created through a nanny state

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Old Aug 10, 2016, 5:59pm   #15
 
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not in the UK A last time around ..........we never cleansed out the system (like the US did) hence our issues now .......most people buying in UK are pretty sure they wont get repo'd.........a silly mindset but one we have created through a nanny state

N
Are you sure?

https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...ty#live-tables

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Old Aug 10, 2016, 6:31pm   #16
 
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That's just a projection. I have seen dozens of these over the years and none of them have ever come to light.
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